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oh **** this message board does not include stuff between >'s
i ment to highlight: "based on the proposals received to date"
and
"not expected at this time"
So, LTH, between all the very "valuable" doomsday posters here, this is what i read:
First of all, all scenarios listed are based on the situation of today, ie on the bids from last week and the refinancing before (which is unapproved)
Pay attention to the lingo here:
it is not expected that any sale transaction will provide any recovery for the holders of the Company's equity interests.
&
in light of the level of existing debt that is EXPECTED to be released under any Plan, the Company does not believe that there will be sufficient creditor support for a Plan that contemplates any recovery for equity interests, and it is therefore not expected that any Plan will provide any recovery for holders of Cineworld's existing equity interests.
How i read it, the bids are lowballed as expected and the financing is prolly (imo) linked to said valuation - ie - it makes sense that its nowhere something for LTH to get a piece from.
Everything that has been said in the RNS was already posted yday and discussed on this board.
Yes it is looking very bleek, but we all knew this already.
Regardless of what the stock will do today, im seeing this till the bitter end
Wolf thats not exactly what i ment - i didnt mean they would let him keep his 20%; i ment to say they take all and then just make a certain % in (newco) equity part of his signing bonus.
But i like the overal optimism here, its true, its gonna be wait and see. if a plausible alternative is possible, i hope it becomes appearent and that it can be enforced to keep away the vultures
an other thought - imagine the valuation lands on 1b and the banks say ok; we clear 1b in debt in return for your company (so 100% wipeout) the banks (can or cannot) give mooky 20% which they just bought for 200m all on the cheap; heck for 50m incentive they can prolly find everyone and their mother to return this back on track
is this plausible? Legal?
Man that was a negative turn in thoughts but is it plausible; i hope not; dont wanna deramp here (lth here)
Now that a D4E is in the stars. Can anyone (with proper knowledge) give us a reasonable scenario.
Someone cleverly pointed out that the bids will prolly be used as info to get a valuation (although we all agree every bid is gonna be a bargain)
one thing that i cant seem to wrap my mind around thou, most of the cineworld loans are only too mature in 2024+ of which the biggest chunk is scheduled for 2025 (2.889m) en 625m in 2026
So the actual (loan) debt payable would be 2b max instead of 6b
would that mean that in theory we only need a valuation above said 2b to ensure a portion is left for the shareholders? (under the logic if the company is worth 2b + and only 2b is swapped, the + is not up for swapping)
yeah - i think anyone on this board, that is still holding, has that in the back of their heads.
His personal involvement is a bit of a guarantee for us. i just hope there is some legal protection or some conflict of interest-laws prohibiting him making a move that will sack all shareholders except himself
Where do you think the similarities lie? can you be more specific please
Agree Elvis, but my worries were more towards the delisting
delisting cannot be good for us thou right?
Not really sure how to feel about this news as holder.
Numerious bids will prolly mean we arent getting white smoke soon. Prolly there are several scenarios with different outcomes to be investigated.
More waiting incoming
i think at the helm
the equation will look like this:
Net value (Price paid - debt) of the branch/entire business VERSUS The price of delution (Offering/d4e)
So if a bidder bids significantly above the debt, it may be more intresting (although doubtfull) than just issuing more shares for pure liquidity
pure speculation on my end
if they pull of an offering or a D4E - new shares will be issued for cash, plain and simple"
if they're gonna sell assets - im not sure how this will translate with the debt - i would think if you sell the asset, (regal?) to which the debt is linked, the debt will transfer.
so it will depend what path they go
so we may be looking at a much smaller amount of capital be found for this plan to work. (as opposed to 6 or 7b)
i am not familiar with c11 specifics but i think we are all assuming something that may not be the case: i dont think all debt will have be cleared in the new structure. Most or a good portion of the debt had a maturity till 2026 or 2027. The "Default" was due to bad cash flow and missing loan repayment (if i recall correctly)
my GUESS would be the new structure would (1) cover (=settle) all outstanding debts payable and (2) preferable provide a bit of liquidity to bridge the remainder of the lower than usual attendance.
But as i said. this is just conjecture on my part but it would seem illogic that a deal now, would settle debt payable in X years.
you know, come to think of it, i wouldnt be surprised if the deal was contingent on the CP verdict.
I mean i dont wanna be that guy to pee all over the parade, but what money-guy would be eager to give money with that still in the air, unless its already priced in (prolly in their favor)
in all honesty guys - i would cool the excitement.
Given the ride we've been in, i would wait untill the final verdict before releasing that joy dopamine.
Yeah - from all i've read, although i have 0 knowledge/experience with these kind of things. that does seem to be what is posted in the various articles.
personally im trying not to think about it too much cuz its only "paper news".
Ild be happy to see something more concreet soon
Cheers @ Bulls
@ Wolfs, i agree - i think the amount of new liquidity will be kept at minimum and any "concession" in terms of debt will be made in delay or refinancing.
tbh, im already glad the overall tone has become more positive than when this all started and this only confirms what the LTH have always believed.
if only the same level of reason could be applied to the cineplex case, we'ld be much closer to home again
Bonzo - "Bull they’re all talking dribble, it’s worth north of £7 billion. Clowns on this thread haven’t a clue yapping on about this and that. High bids this week and then a bidding war commences."
The OP specifically asked for a valuation based on 2019 figures - so your response couldnt be more irrelevant.
Given the way you respond, you clearly have a better view on the matter. i'ld love to hear it.
a quick example in the cineworld case (without looking at any numbers)
Cineworld prolly has a major goodwill (asset) from the acquistion - valued @ purchase, which surely now is worth way less. Cineworld also has a lot of "cinema assets" on the balance sheet which, potentially could be worth far less if theyre forced to sell
The only thing you are ever 100% of on the asset side is the cash balance (cuz its confirmed by the banks at yearend) and 2nd most sure are the receivables (if confirmed by the other party) but even then, you gotta be sure to collect them (but i think in the cinema business - the receivable risk is low since the major income is visitors)
Anything else like property, etc all the way down to goodwill could vary a lot from the book value