Member Info for penstock

If you didn't get a voting form in the post and cannot attend the AGM then you can download a proxy form from the Documents library https://www.benscreek.com/corporate-documents.html

Just booked hotel and train tickets from Leeds to attend the AGM. Great opportunity to meet the BoDs and ask questions directly. Anyone else going? Look out for us, I'll be with my 8yo son wearing his Bens Creek cap, but no satsumas.

Sorry for your loss Steve,

bydd newyddion gwell yn dod

For folk not using telegram, the photos/videos are on the unofficial Bens Creek facebook group

https://fb.me/g/p_xH2xLNVHHia7yteS/MGZDtAMo

mr mohammed iqbal has just shared some photos and videos of bens creek in my tgm group which will be shared on other social media now: *************penstocksbengroup/1/1009

ok, here are more crazy penstock *** packet calculations based on the september production figures in the rns:

august production 42.691kt including say 9.691kt from underground (at 40% efficiency) and about 2kt from the single shift 81hwm that operated 28th-31 august.

thus the 71hwm in double shift produced just 31kt clean coal (1kt/day).

if the 81hwm produced 0.5kt/day for the first 10 days of september and 1kt/day for the remaining 20 days of the month then it should have produced 25kt clean hvb.

71hwm + 81hwm + underground miner should therefore have produced nearly 66kt clean coal.

my only thoughts on them only producing 50kt instead of 66kt is that the 81hwm didn't run double shifts every day due to an uncertainty of getting 6 trains and maybe insufficient stockpile space until the yard is widened. whatever the reasons, it is good to know that bens will be able to reach 70kt once both hwms are in regular double shifts and the underground mining ramps up production.

Yeh I agree Kenny that dividends are a carrot that is still just a green shoot in a dark closet unless of course coal prices shoot up to $300/T and the sun starts shining through the cracks.

Gotta say that Avani are a big positive for BEN. Have heard that as the biggest shareholder & who have been in the met coal business for more than a decade, if they are given some leeway to make changes it would benefit every shareholder. Need the rest of the board to listen to those ideas.

KTFIWACG ;)

Hey Nursesteve, I am coming up with a figure of 55.6Kt/month clean coal production in double shifts on both the 71 & 81 HWMs and with the underground CM output. Rising to 60.7Kt as the underground mining ramps up both in terms of production and recovery rate. Once NS guarantee they can send enough trains (7) I'd expect the HWM output to increase to near the 77K clean coal cumulative tons target (=70KT).

As for profits, I have no insight to their financial decisions. Me, personally, I'd keep it as cashflow and just pay the $6/T royalties and pay the loans off with interest at the end of the term (18-24months). However if I wanted dividends all round before Christmas 2024 then I'd have to pay the loans off early. Still not clear if we have to pay all the loans off to get divis or just that last loan that Avani gave us. Not sure if there is early redemption fee on the loans either. Anyway, on to full production with a rise in market coal prices and a hedged offtake till the end of the year. It is all good news after the expected disappointing eoy financials. No satsumas to be thrown at Adam on the 27th, although by earlier calculations it only takes a $1 rise in the coal price to cover his $800K annual bonus so today's rise in coal prices has that covered ;)

Each train takes 11K short tons = 10 metric Tonnes

4 trains in August, apparently 5 in September, slowly ramping up to full production and 7 trains per month which would take 77Kt or 70KT clean coal to market.

Still a lot of debate about costs/margins/b/e etc. If b/e costs with 1xHWM were $191/t then that is $210/T. With roughly a $19/t reduction of costs bringing it down to $189/T using 2xHWMs but same amount of staff and other fixed costs, and with the current market price of $238/T Ben should make $49/T profits.

7 trains = 77Kt = 70KT = $16,660,000 revenue = $3.43m profits

Ah but then gotta take off an extra $6/T for loan royalties so that fetches profits down closer to $3m/month. A $1 rise in coal prices would add an extra $49K-$63K per month ($0.5m-$0.8m annual) profit depending on what the broker fees are.

Not official figures, just my take on them. Hope the quarterly and interim reports and revised WHI broker report set figures out better for a layman like myself.

Yeh, family just topped up by adding 6289. I see that both yours and ours show as sells but were actually buys. Probably because we got them below the free trade app prices. My earlier buy of 80 and 81 was at 15.99p and they do show as buys. The peer partner audit review should have been completed by now with filing and announcement this pm. Not so fussed about last year's numbers. It is any info about Q1 and production/sales since the 81 started mining on 28th August that am interested in. Apparently AGM has been notified to some already so that is bound to be in today's RNS too. Just a shame the AGM is at 10am as I wanted to get train down from Leeds for it and hook up with some of y'all. Will have 4 weeks to read through the report and string a set of questions together for someone to ask the BoDs either at the AGM or any interviews inbetween.

Argus and PLATTS are behind paywalls to see coal prices. I found this site that seems to show current HvB prices that Ben sell:

www.globalcoal.com/coalprices/metmarketdata.cfm

Fromage Freetrade don't charge fees. I should have waited 6hrs to buy my daily 81 shares and saved myself £1. Not to worry, should be able to get 81 shares for £12.96 in the morning when the newbies sh*t the bed at the results. Freetrade is just a bit of fun. 81 shares because of the 2nd HWM.

Just hope Adam gives an update on current production/costs/profits with both HWMs in double shifts along with the CM putting BEN in full production.

Nearly 2 years since IPO. It has cost a few mill to get to full production and the coal price hasn't been on our side. Mega screwed up at the end of the financial year with the 77 and at the start of this one with the 81 jam. Anyway, look at the results, where costs changed throughout the year as the Company changed from a contractor model to totally in-house (excluding the HWMs). None of us expect them to look good although tbf coal prices were above the $190/T b/e point that Adam speaks with just 1xHWM so maybe profits were made??

Grab some key costings, capex, debt figures from the results and stick them into a revised DCF with reduced opex costings due to economy of scale having the second HWM in double shifts already, more capital able to clear more bench space each month than before, more efficient washplant output, and more trains (not yet confirmed). WHI broker are due to redo their DCF soon if you cba doing your own spreadsheet.

Bound to be a wobble in favour of the shorters tomorrow morning. IMO they need to close them and go long in the afternoon. All depends on what Adam adds as a footnote to the RNS really and if NS send more trains.

GL to all and see you at the AGM sometime after the 18th October?

Twas the night before Results Day, when all through the house

Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.

The stock was sat idle as if nobody cared,

In hopes that the RNS soon would be there.

The investors were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of profits danced in their heads.

And Mohammed in a ‘kerchief, and Adam in a cap,

Had just settled our brains for the results they were crap.

When out on the chatboards there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from my desk to see what was the chatter.

Away to the Windows I googled the price,

Tearing up the chart graph, it had climbed up thrice.

The Creek was in full production chucking out coal

double shift HWMs plus an underground rig down below.

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But PATT with his cap in his hand, oh deer.

The crafty little shorter, so pedantic and slick,

had closed all his shorts and gone long, what a prick.

More rapid than eagles the investors they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!

"Now, Avani! now, Acam! now, David and Robin!

On, Allenby! On, Muhammed! on, Adam and Larkin!

To the top of the charts! get mining the walls!

Now loans away! Debts away! Dividends for all!"

GL All!

That all seems fair to me Barn,

Latest spiel was that b/e with one HWM (#71) was $191/T with the double shift second HWM (#81) reducing costs. $235/T market price so yeh, reasonable to suggest $50/T profit.

Production may be 80Kt/month but the trains take 11Kt per run so 7 trains could take 77Kt of that stockpile each month ensuring there is a contingency pile to cover downtime/holidays or even add an extra train every 4 months.

77K x 50 = $3.85m/month. 12 months = $46.2m

$21.67m recent loans, a bit of debt and finance on the November equipment (3 years at 75%LTV so only 2 years and 2 months left on that). No reason it can't all be paid off by (as in before) Christmas 2024 and get a divi announcement once Avani's loan(s) has/have been paid next year. All hinges on coal staying high, trains coming, maintaining full production and continuing to streamline efficiency levels such as the recent hooking up of the 81 to the grid.

No point trying to work out costs from next week's eoy report as so many variables affected it as mentioned already this week (no trains till June, only 1 HWM etc) . Now Bens are in full production, costs should be at a relative constant and even get reduced as the year progresses so it will be great if Aarondeep or Adam can give us a clue what current full production costs are with 2HWMs in double shifts plus the underground rig mining too.

JLS, hindsight is great. Yes I should have sold my initial stake at least when at a £1 and coal was $450/T and the PR was all about getting the Company to where it is now only they said it would happen 12 months earlier.

Now coal is 63% of that 450 price. Currently $285/T.

Production levels now that both HWMs are in double shifts along with the underground CM should be 70Kt+ but won't know that till it is officially declared either in the RNS next week or tge AGM next month.

IMO dividends won't happen this year for sure and might happen by Christmas 2024 but at 6p not 10p. Assuming coal stays above $225/T for the duration.

I agree about it not mastering what platform is used as I buy 81 shares with Freetrade app most days as a bit of fun with no broker fees unlike my main ISA broker.

The Company is fully funded, has a large shateholder broker with beneficial interests in selling as much coal to India as it can. The Company own all the equipment with just 2 years left on the financing of yellow iron from last year. The reopened mine is nearly 2 years young and in full production.

Not sure what your intention is here JLS . Am assuming you did OK by selling at £1 and well done if you did. I take it you are not investing here again or are you playing the flip game for 10% trades? If you are then that is fair enough. But don't get caught short if the sp rallies past 20p.

GL.

Thanks Seagreen. I don't do ADVFN anymore as the Admin do not monitor the chatboards and have refused to combat the personal attacks on members there (online bullying) . The shorters have been very rude to you and others although you could do with not baiting them so much ;) I prefer this LSE chatboard as it is all about the stock and comments are monitored to prevent bullying.

18p is what AVANI paid so get past that today.

Eoy results in 6 days but for reasons I wrote yesterday morning we all expect them to look bad for the amount of coal sold in that time frame and the costs and capex purchases to do so. With Bens now producing 70+ thousand clean tons per month and coal at $233/T Bens are in profit and should be able to pay off all debts & loans by Christmas 2024, maybe sooner if coal continues to rise. As we know, once Avani's loan is paid off then Ben's will be permitted to announce dividends should it be appropriate to do so (ie if there is enough cashflow).

Next week will merely set the playing field out for institutional investors as us mere LTH shareholders pretty much know the score already. I still don't get that full production and rising coal prices and margins have not caught their attention or at least convinced them to invest yet. I am clearly missing something as the number of trades each day has been naff. After holding so long I'm content to wait for interims, not next week's eoy, to see how current sales are going and get a gradual slow n steady rise to 20, 30, 46 and 60p between now and Christmas 2024. With all equipment working it is all about the coal price forecasts now as the sp should follow the commodity price curve as it has in the past bar a few hiccups along the way. Still a way off 43p but IMO we should start heading closer towards it next week. Get past 18p today and past 20p Wednesday. GL

And tbh, does anyone except shorters even read ADVFN chatboards? I realised that and deleted my 2 profile accounts. Don't feed them any comments and the thread will die out. Stick to moderated LSE and decent unbiased Tgm groups

Yeh, they kinda eluded to $191/T b/e which would give $42 margin now but always safer to err on side of caution so even if we round those figures to 200 costs and 33 margin it is all good. Shame we blend the HiVolA with the HWMs' HvB because with 12-13Kt/month clean HiVolA at $283/T and costs at just $111/T that would pull $172/T ($156/t) profit.

Adam is in the UK so I would expect London AGM announcement soon that requires minimum 21 days notice so he can spend a few weeks with family here.

Https://youtu.be/QfJI-g93-H8?si=w0hk4NHy3fbW7vI7

The accountants amongst us are waiting to evaluate the eoy results but those results will only show:

.sales of coal by train between June 2022-end March 23;

.production of HvB coal from just the #71HWM;

.production of HvA from the underground CM between October 2022-end March 23;

.downtime as the 77HWM was relocated to the new permit bench site;

.costs of production between April-November using JMAC contractors;

.costs of production between November-end March 23 using Bens' recruited staff and purchase of new Komatsu yellow iron;

.clarification on Realisation (shipping etc) costs which may have risen in line with fuel costs;

.confirmation of trucked pitcoal ROM sales via CSX during bench prep?;

.broker % discount from PLATTS coal price (some holders say 10%, some say 30%?);

.confirmation that CLNs were all paid off;

.payment for the rail track and how much is still outstanding;

.cumultive debts and the capex loan taken out on the yellow iron in November 22.

None of us expect the report to look great although the coal price started off the year at $450/T when margins were high.

By the 27th September the 81 HWM will have completed a full month of mining along with the other 2 mining rigs (HWM & CM). IMO we should get a Quarterly update(s) for April onwards tagged on to the end of the eoy report RNS and a better understanding of what costs are in full production with both HWMs in double shifts without having to wait for the interims or next year's report. Printed in official RNS to avoid FUD from the naysayers although a video interview and AGM next month will answer a lot of questions, mostly financial ones as operationally everything seems great, the Company have reached full production just short of 2 years since IPO. Maybe they will confirm production of 77Kt+ clean coal/month, which is enough to fill 7 trains/month or 924Kt/yr!

As the coal price rises, the profits rise, the debts & loans get paid off. That done, the Company will be able to announce dividends next year all being well. I doubt all that $21.57m has been spent yet so if coal continues to rise or even if it should plateau at current levels then a lump sum could be paid back early to reduce interest? I don't understand these sort of things, what is in best interest of the Company. Hold on to the cash for contingency against unexpected price falls/force majeures or pay it back asap? Anyway, all looking great at last for Bens and shareholders. Still dumbfounded that I can still pick up my daily 81 shares for just 16p which is what I paid for my first BEN shares back in November 2021. I so should have skimmed at £1 but that is on me, still got a 43p average, but still optimistic.

1 week to eoy RNS. GL all.

...per year, sorry $1m per year, woohahahaha

Full production of around 77Kt/month clean HvB+

Every $1 increase in coal price obviously = $77K extra gross revenue each month or close on One Million Dollars! (you need to say that in an Austin Powers voice).