RE: NOT LOOKING GOOD25 Apr 2023 15:35
All news seems to be held back until the Roast PR get there...just in time for them to see a big yellow HWM300 rig mining sending ROM to the washplant that spits out to a growing black heap of washed coal.
You've waited 2 months for dividends, most of us have waited 12 and probably will wait a few more ;) Please always DYOR and don't rely on my figures. I was calling £1.50 + 10p dividends last year based on the PR which was plentiful at the time. Hence why I do my own digging and research now although I do share it all, good or bad. Truth is we can't predict what the sp will be. We can try to value the business on fundamentals but not sentiment. It will certainly help having MBU reduce their stake below 50% and having a new investor onboard holding 29.9% at 2p above today's price.
As it stands, Bens have a large growing stockpile from just 1xHWM (the red 71) and the underground CM. The 77 needed repairs done by Mega. An operational yellow HWM300 unit is not due to be operational onsite until May and all being well double shift/full production by mid summer. 7 trains a month in July seems like ages away but it is only 3 months. 4 trains a month in April = 44Kt or 40KT @ 20 day average of around $245/T = close on $10m gross rev and (pure speculation about margins until we see financials) around $3.8m monthly gross profits?
7 trains = 77KT and if we say the average market price is just a paltry/pessimistic $215/T over summer, then that = $16.5m gross revenue and around $4.9m/month EBITDA (again this is only my take on margins, could be lower, could be higher) as upscaling amounts decreases per ton costs.
Just need those international steel plants to demand more US metcoal and push prices back up.
-77+81