Member Info for penstock

PLATTS still showing $266/t. Not sure why CGO group are saying it is higher. China reversing it's decision a few months ago to stop importing coal from Australia means they can get a plentiful supply from there as well as Russia which has affected demand from other countries and thus the price. Have to hope demand increases as the new financial year of military expenditure requires more steel. CGO is about to start selling pitcoal mined off that abundant floor with it's Witigen but at low prices to South Africa. Ben are about to start mining with the 77 unit to double production by summer. Both good prospects IMO but I'm only a toe in with CGO, up to my next in BEN. Just waiting to see video of the yellow 'Bumblebee' transform BEN into a 76Kt/month producer of clean HiVolB. Should be this week. I'll be disappointed if it is not mining by Easter.

24th November 2021 RNS 71HWM assembled, exactly 1 week later 1st December RNS pleased to announce the recovery of first metallurgical coal deposits by that HWM.
23rd March 2022 RNS 77HWM assembled, exactly 11 days later ...?

Rak, the first page of WHI broker report said "We see fair value at 86p/sh using a long-term price of $225/t for metallurgical
coal, below current price levels."

It was based on $225. The disparity is the costs. WHI side note on page 6 said $70 costs plus $40 shipping = $110.
Adam said costs are around $115-125 but also said shipping costs about $50. Are those shipping costs included in that 115-125 number? WHI think so I guess.
I based my spreadsheet on 70 costs plus 40 shipping.
Scroll down to the figures I posted couple days ago. Might be totally wrong but they are there...in B&W ;)

the 2x100K volumes at 15:09? Most probably a rollover

in 2022 the offtake agreement was set at a 20 day average of just less than market price but mid term Adam (CEO) managed to fix a price in Bens favour for I think 8 trainloads at a time when the market price was sliding downhill, having been $450/T this time last year.
Adam has said in interview that they have an offtake agreement for 2023. However, that has not been printed in RNS yet and I do not know what payment terms are. If anyone heard him say that we are getting a fixed amount or a 20day average or some other terms then please post a link to where it was said and what those terms are as long as it is not inside/sensitive information.
From interview Adam said that ships will now be sent almost exclusively to be filled with Ben's coal with an offtake agreement to take 70% output. The remainder to be sold to domestic US steel market (presumably using CSX trains that require the coal to be trucked offsite to the loading point at another mine site, High Ridge in Ky I think).
I have no inside info from the BoDs. At the end of the day I am just a shareholder trying to keep fellow shareholders up to date with operational matters, be they positive or negative. The last 8 months have not been great in terms of missed timelines. In fact, if the boss hadn't given timelines then we probably wouldn't have got our pants in a twist each month. Anyway, since last interview everything looks to be on track. I expect the 77 HWM to be mining next week as it has all been assembled now and just going through logic computer checks. That huge yellow 'Bumblebee' HWM300 unit was the first HWM that Cat brought out when they acquired Bacyrus. I don't think it has been used since 2016 so could do with a fresh lick of paint and probably a few grease gun refills. Mega confirmed last summer that Ben would be getting the 77 unit so Adam was not jerking our chain about getting it then. He was just over optimistic on timelines for permits and bench preps and supply of trains. All sorted now it seems. 3 more permits due in May, but just renewal permits from DEP for underground mining and refuse area.

$70 operating costs and $40 transport costs came from the side note page 6 of WHI report. Tax is only 27.5% but it displayed as 28% on my spreadsheet as that cell rounded up. Transport may well increase as fuel costs increase. Indeed energy prices may increase and diesel for the fleet but the figures used in my spreadsheet are pulled from that broker report and recent interviews. You decide if they are realistic or not. I have presented it all to you there in black and white, depending on your monitor settings.

yes Rob1967, got my formula wrong the first time round with the difference of metric and short tons. Like I say, high chance my numbers are wrong which is why I shared my spreadsheet in Tgm group for any trained accountants to dissect, amend and correct. None have done so.

Coal Price $270/metric ton
Broker 10% $27
Price received $243
Realisation charge for last month of the year $20.7m
Net Revenue based on 41.5Kst sales April & May + 76.5Kst June-March (total 1017.6st = 916 metric tons) $201.89m
Operating cost at $70/t $64m
Royalty (5% plus $2/ton) $9.3m
Transport ($40/ton) $40.7m
EBITDA $87.8m
Depreciation $8.5m
Tax (28%) $21.8m
Operating profit $57.5m
Claw back depreciation +$8.5m
Capex $15m (fleet purchase)
Cashflow $51m

All in my opinion. Not official figures. Substitute your own formula/figures as you see fit.
And just realised the sp prediction of 88p in previous post should have said 88cents so only 71p

PLATTS been showing price as $273 for over a week now with no change this week. Bens quote PLATTS prices. Not sure why there is disparity between PLATTS & Argus. One says $273, the other $270.
With 2 trains due this week and a further 2 next week it would seem that Adam has got all the ducks in a row to deliver as per those interviews. The 77 HWM is assembled and should be mining soon (next week?).

Based on 41.5KT a month for next 2 months and 76.5KT/month for the remaining 10 of Ben's financial year, then if coal price average over the whole year was hedged at today's low of $270 (- brokerage fee) they should still do $222.5m gross revenue, $87.8m EBITDA, $57.5m Operating profit, $51m cashflow by my *** packet calculations. At PE4 that puts the sp about 88p? And if that production volume is sold then 6p dividends could be announced (possibly split 2p June and 4p December). All of this is just IMO. I've put my spreadsheet in the Tgm group so you can play with figures and formula to suit. High chance my numbers are wrong as am not an accountant but the figures/formulas I used are ones plucked from the WHI broker DCF and Adam's interviews. $175 seems to be the break even market price based on 4 trains April & May, 6-7 trains June-March.

Now we have coalminingusa.com website to show photos and videos from the Creek my 'Unofficial Bens Creek' facebook group is obsolete. I only set the group up to make images available to support/corroborate news for all shareholders to view . Now the website is doing that I don't need to waste time with facebook. Will be taking it down this morning so if there are any photos/videos/links/info you want from it grab it quick.

You did well to sell out on 29th April last year James especially as Bens had only just supplied it's first ever clean coal delivery that month. There was a lot of expectations last year that didn't come about until late. As an 17 month old mining company it is fair to say the sp rose too fast at the beginning but is equally fair to say it is now way below value knowing how established and productive Bens have become. If you bother to research what has happened this year then you will see that Bens are now on track to do the things we were led to expect this time last year. The negative point is the market price which is not $450 like last April.
Both HWMs are onsite now. The 71 is producing 35KT clean coal and the underground Continuous Miner producing some 6.5KT clean coal each month. Had a stockpile of 35KT clean coal last week. There were 2 NS trains the on 7th & 8th March and apparently a further 2 since plus coal trucked to CSX.
Awaiting news now that the larger 77 HWM has started mining. Reserves update. Eoy sales info at the eo this week. Things to keep an eye open for will be confirmation that we ship some 40KT+ plus for next 2 months and ramp that up to 76KT by summer. That is my hopium. Get this tax year out the way and see where we are at by Easter. Last year I followed the PR train and it derailed. This year I follow my own research and corroborate info with Gilbert hardhats & locals to determine what is or isn't happening and don't worry I shall not post info here as people got upset when I disclosed the lack of onsite trains last month. It either all comes good by June or it doesn't. 17.75p just seems way too low if you check out the spreadsheet on Tgm.

With the big offtake deal signed for 2023 saying that 70% of BEN's coal going for export and the rest to domestic US steel and the 2nd HWM coming online first week of April ramping up to some 70-80KT clean coal production each month, the 86p target price of the WHI broker note seems fair. 86p is nearly 5x today's sp. Filling a £20K ISA could realise £100K plus tax free dividends. Not advising anyone invest, just simply pointing out the math. As always DYOR & GL.

The first offtake agreement was in RNS 21st October 2021 for Jan-Dec 2022 at a 20 day average of just below market price but modified mid term to a fixed price that benefited BEN as the price dropped . The latest offtake agreement has not been released in RNS yet. The terms have not been announced this time round presumably to protective such sensitive information from competing mine companies. In the interviews Adam has said that 70% of sales are forward sold for export with boats/ships being sent to be filled almost exclusively with BEN's coal. The remaining 30% going to the domestic US steel market.
End of financial year for Ben is 31st March.
Next week, a new financial year should see both HWM in production along with the underground CM.
The Reserve update is also due next week.
Should be a good Easter.
76.5KT/month production of clean coal by end of May.
Loans get paid down, Dividends announced.
Should be/Could be a good summer.

71HWM produces 35KT clean HiVolB
CM produces 6.5KT clean HiVolA
Both get mixed together to stockpile 41.5KT clean HiVolB+
Despite no trains in February there will still have been a stockpile of coal mined that month plus coal from previous months minus a bit of downtime as the 71 got moved to the new bench, so maybe just 30KT produced total in February. Add that to the 41.5KT from this month and whatever was stockpiled before February gives some 80KT+?. If the photo from last week showed 35KT stockpiled then 45KT+ has been taken offsite in 4 trains this month?
When the 77 HWM is in double shift by the end of next month it will add a further 35KT clean coal each month.
71=35KT
77=35KT
CM=6.5KT
Total 76.5KT per month.

Have had a listen to the Proactive interview where Adam has actually said that they have signed a big offtake deal for filling ships with coal for 2023. That wasn't quite so clearly stated in the Roast podcast.
Anway, I disputed the hedged agreement last week, but having heard the Proactive I hold my hands up like at a David Guetta concert and shout out "Bens have an offtake deal for the rest of this calendar year". Think it is for 70% of their total production but I'd have to listen to it again which I suggest all shareholders do to reassure themselves that Bens' coal has already been sold and probably at a price that reflected the $300/T market price of January.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1009024/bens-creek-approaches-nearly-full-production-at-west-virginia-mining-project-1009024.html?viewSource=TwitterUK

I guess so Rak, but it didn't put me off topping up at 17.49p this morning. Adam's timelines are now becoming realistic/achievable. The HWM parts arrived and were assembled within timelines spoken in the podcast. First production from that 77 will commence by first week April. It will be on Mega to supply enough staff to ramp it up to double shift by May. It will be on NS to supply the trains to take the coal to port. Assuming Adam is legit is saying that the collier ships are to be filled using 70-80% of BEN's coal then we should look out for confirmation that 4 trains leave the Creek each month although they may only release such info on a quarterly basis from now on. No more hip hop, ZZ-top, country road videos ;)
Easter is not until 9th April (another 16 days yet) by which time the 77HWM will already be mining. A whole new tax year too. Am cautiously optimistic for not only Easter but summer too.

JH, Only got 410 members on the Ben facebook and near 300 in each Ben Tgm group. Clearly the rest of the market have no clue about the pending doubling of production and >double sales due to happen by summer.

May is when Ben expects to produce:
35Kt clean from 71,
35KT clean from 77,
6KT from CM
so a total of 76KT clean coal production.

10KT will truck to a CSX train for domestic USA steel,
55-66KT will go by NS trains to the ship for export. Potential 76KT sales each month by June 2023 (the Q2 of Ben's financial year).
Assuming Bens send out 43KT (3xNS & 1CSX) until May then Q1 will be 129KT sales, Q2-eoy at 76Kt/month will be 608KT so total potential sales April23-end March24 737KT for the financial year.
The 77 starts mining first week April, double shift May. The roasters out there videoing it all just in time to show what full production looks like. Pay down loans and debts. Announce dividends June?
Every dollar rise/fall in the annual average metric metcoal price is a potential $0.66m annual profit/loss. A rise from today's $273/T to $300/T would therefore add $18m profit (3.6p additional amount for dividends/ pay off debts/ buy more equipment/ more leases - Ben2). Conversely a drop would not be good although the WHI broker report based on just $225/T produced an 86p sp valuation. That kind of pees on my earlier calculation that we need the price to be above $216/T to break even. So don't rely on my numbers. I'll stick to looking out for pretty photos and videos of the equipment mining and confirmation of trucks & trains hauling/freighting.
General knowledge: A haul-truck transports overburden and coal around the site as it is designed to run on muddy dirt tracks. That is what those yellow Komatsu 605 trucks are that Bens bought last year. An 18 wheeler freight-truck transports coal offsite on roads, in Ben's case to the CSX loading site.

Zimbabwe gold mafia. How many bars can A2Z hide in a truck full of coal? lol
Bit of a worry or should I say waraba with no news from Mali and no news on coal sales in Zim. All equipment is onsite so what is the hold up?

JH I unfortunately agree with you on market price. From figures given in the podcast I get it that $216 /T is the minimum price required to break even. Today's price is $275. This time last year HiVolB was $450/T. Have to hope steel demand from government military & infrastructure budgets push it back up over $300 by summer when Bens will be in full production.

Both HWMs will be mining first week of April ramping up to double shift FULL production by May 2023.
That will be 1 of the 3 catalysts for a sp rise ticked.
Next on the list will be NS sending minimum 4 trains in one week when the 80KT capacity collier ship is in port.
Final catalyst will be the spot price. Beyond Bens's control, but if steel demand rises by start of summer pushing the price back above $300/T, the HWMs and CM are in full production, NS send trains to fill 70% of the collier, then BEN will surely become a dividend play. By end of May!
KTFIWACG! ;) GL to all LTH and new names.