Member Info for penstock

DropD you need to READ WHAT I WROTE instead of skipping abbreviations. The 100KT per month is Run Of Mine ('ROM') not clean coal. Based on 1.5 crews using 2 HWMs to pull out 70+35KT ROM. The CMs pull out 20KT ROM. A cumulative total of 120KT ROM. Washed at 65% efficiency that renders down to 78KT clean HiVolB+ coal. That is pretty much the target, oder?

I stick to facts since all the BS given out to us last year that I helped unwittingly push at the time. I do my own research and as many know I share it in my groups good or bad. I do not ramp. Check back what I posted months ago. I was the one who told everyone the permit would not arrive before September having being told by DEP that their goal date was October. I was the one who announced back in summer that we would be getting the number 77 HWM and I announced in December that it would not be onsite until February and mining March. I announced we were digging out pitcoal and loading it into trucks to join CSX trains. I post pics and videos on my BEN facebook group and Tgm group. Biggest fan, yet holding at 43p average.
I say it as it is. Don't make up numbers to suit. I even said a few weeks ago that unless the sp dropped from 24p to 20p I probably would hold off investing. It did drop, is now rising and if I wasn't already b*lls deep then I would have started investing on the back of MBU's 22222222s but that is water off a duck's back ;)

Ben's had a debt last year selling 2 train loads a month and still in start up phase, just like any new business. They bought all the equipment and are in-house employers now rather than contracting JMAC. They contracted one HWM last year that was moved with the new permit to a taller seam rendering HiVolB coal that requires less washing as it contains less rock waste. They have built new benches, mined pitcoal and are using continuous Miners to pull out HiVolA from the underground mines. Once the pitcoal is cleared off the bench and taken by trucks the bench will be ready for the next HWM to be brought up to the blasted & cleared highwall at Wildcat Mountain whilst more benches are made around the other side of said mountain within that 299 permit acreage. At 40KT sales Ben was profitable. 54KT was sold last month.
With the 77 HWM300 due to start next month Ben's output should shoot up to 7 trainloads. As of Easter the amount of profits depend on spot price, ability of Mega to get out around 100KT HvB ROM each month, the CM to pull out 20KT HvA ROM and NS to send the extra trains. As for BEN, all the ducks are lined up to make it all happen.
Sp doesn't affect what any div amount will be, it is vice versa. If BEN get a consistent 4+ trains each month then profit is made. If we get 5,6 or 7 then it will be possible to pay dividends and maintain a cashflow.
As I already suggested, it will be up to Mega and Norfolk Southern how soon those dividends can be paid and up to Adam & Murat as to what will be an appropriate amount.

Once ii see the extra trains they will realise the profits being made. To encourage them to invest longterm the BoDs will be wanting to issue dividends asap. The BoDs invested here will be rewarded as well as us smaller investors. 2p in summer and just 4p at Christmas would be a good deal but that 10p figure would reward all 10p IPO investors by in effect giving them their money back.
For now just have to wait for the 77 to fire up, and see how many train loads get filled.

I realise I am not an official source so most just take what I say with a pinch of salt but since summer last year I have done a shed load of research and learnt to find out info for myself rather than going by podcasts. Hindsight is a bugga. If you scroll back a few months I told you the sections would not be onsite until February and that mining would not commence until around Easter time. Yeh, AW may well have said the 77 would be mining by now, but as I have been saying, they are mining pitcoal off the surface and loading it straight into the 18 wheelers so no point paying Mega when Bens' own staff can mine it with their own dozers (no longer held to ransom by JMAC). Benches being built on the other side of Wildcat where they should be able to mine pitcoal too while the 77 sections get craned together like a big yellow Bumblebee robot transformer (blame half term for that comparison) and wheeled into place at Wildcat #6.
Feel free to call me out should that 77 not start making the first cut next month. No word on how many trains have left this month but we are only in the middle of it and Luther might only knows a few tunes. In 2 months Bens could well be in full production, but at the very latest, summer. That means at least 77KT a month clean coal.
Will it all be taken by Integrity or is there a domestic steel plant sneaking extra trucks and trains in ;) Amongst others, Europe need steel now that Russia and Iskenderun steel is not available to them. All the talk of increasing military hardware amongst NATO nations will require an increased supply of steel, not just knives and forks!
OK my pump is over. Back to half term, enjoy the rest of the week. Puss In Boots yesterday was a great film btw. Might try those big eyes when I ask the missus if I can buy more BEN before the next RNS.

Had me wondering there but yes, to afford 10p dividends for 375m shares, Bens need £37.5m profits = $45.3m
Assuming $100 operating profit/t then need to sell just 453Kt/yr which even with just 4 trains each month is achievable. Bens filled 5 trains last month, confirmed in interview but will be good to see it in official news.
Once the 77 HWM300 is assembled and mining next month Bens will have ability to produce up to 80KT clean coal a month to fill 7/8 trains. 10p dividends plus a healthy cashflow. As the spot price keeps rising so do the potential profits.
The vibe now is starting to feel like it did in November 2021. Back then we just had hopes and expectations, next month they become real!

What placing are you referring to being flipped? The 30p placing from October? There hasn't been a placing since then. The recent drop was not due to any placing/dilution. It was simply MBU selling 22m at a discount to ii. Now just seems like money is sitting on the fence waiting for news of the 77 HWM300 firing up before it gets invested for the rise in production, profits and ultimately dividend announcements that funds want to bring client money here for.

Realise you were just being flippant but for clarity, the 40KT HiVolB washed coal from BENs HWM activity mixed with 10KT washed HiVolA from the underground continuous miner is shipped as a mix each month for making steel used in the manufacture of tanks, missiles, submarines, wind turbines, building & highways infrastructure etc. And no doubt cutlery. That said, the metcoal is just the fuel to turn iron ore into steel. So while the pits were open in Yorkshire, Sheffield would stick HiVolB or A or whatever coke they had into their crucible or converter furnace and make rail tracks, armour plating, knives & forks. The likes of MRMK continue to make cutlery in Sheffield but that furnace may well be using metcoal from Bens Creek tha' knows.
Well done with your top up. At these prices it is a ...steel ;)

Not just coal trains but M&S trains. Imagine, lol
If NS had any troubles they can sub-contract the spur connection to CSX.
It is really not an issue to BEN. There was a NS derailment of a coal train that had just left Coal Mountain, not far from Gilbert on 2nd December. Had no effect on BEN. We still got sent 4 trains. I get you mean the Ohio train was carrying toxic stuff and NS will get an expensive slap on the wrist, but America needs rail freight. NS will pay a few dollars, be seen to improve some safety features and craic on shipping freight across the NE. Every balloon shooting missile needs steel, most probably made using HiVolB metcoal ;)

From 1990, the first year the Bureau of Transportation Statistics in USA began tracking derailments and injuries on a yearly basis, to 2021, there have been 54,539 accidents in which a train derailed. That’s an average of 1,704 derailments per year. The train you looked at was shipping cargo from Madison, Illinois, to Conway, Pennsylvania, when it left the tracks. Our coal doesn't take that route and is not toxic. Nah the derailment in Ohio won't affect BEN in West Virginia.

Sorry, no official news on trains this month yet. Waiting for Luther to charge his phone battery and find a new song.

For production assumptions on a new plant (first 6 months) work on plant availability of 90%, utilisation at 80% and a 26 day month. Therefore, running at full throttle for max hours you should get to 450 hrs. Plant availability drops off with age, but these wash plants are easier to maintain than most, so remains pretty high.
Power requirement is considerably lower than for instance a DMS, so easy to run off a generator. Water recycles through a settling pond. Best to degrit with a cyclone, but this is not strictly required. Top-up is usually about 5% of solid feed due to adherence, depending on feed size. Looking at about 3-5m³ fresh water per hour.
450hrs x 100T feed x 50% recovery = 22.5KT washed coal per month
Carl talks about getting more than one washplant as the Wirtgen 2200 strip miner rig rips up 500Tphr. Gonna need some more trucks.

A seller's TR1 and an RNS of sales/ an update to confirm all sections of the 77 onsite/ number of trains booked this month/ benches on other side of Wildcat #6 mountain complete/ pitcoal still being mined/ height of new seam (the hwm300 High-Seam Cutter Module can mine up to 176" height. The higher the seam, the less waste comes out and less washing required). Any of that should help, but if 20p is not being bought up then literally WTF!? It is half term so have a great week all, family time now. Hope not still 20p on the 20th. Show BEN some love on the 14th y'all ;)

Apart from that website incorrectly saying MBU own 56% when they now only have 50.8% what does it tell us that we don't already know?
MBU sold down go institutional investors at a discount price. Bens needs more ii to invest and buy up the volume void left by JS. Bens are on the cusp of increasing production and ultimately becoming a dividend play. Are they waiting to see that happen before they invest? Are you? Or are you getting in at 20p before they arrive?

tbh I am not the financial wizz to ask, but maybe someone else here can. I just look at operational matters. Always have been more of a hands on manual labour kinda guy than a numbers guy. Maybe that is why I'm under water, lol.
They probably had hoped news of 5 trains and 77HWM would counteract the sell off, but the 77 news hasn't come yet. For sure the 22m chunk has been worked over a few weeks and no wonder it was oversubscribed at 18p. I do not have any info as to the reason why it was done. I only assume that by selling such a comparatively small amount of MBU's holding they were still able to make a profit compared to what it was worth pre-IPO and attract institutions to invest. The sp has sat in the 20s for quite some time now and the only way it can rise is for big investors to make large purchases. MBU owning parental control % put them off I guess. I am surprised that MBU didn't sell that extra 0.9% to put them below 50% but maybe that extra amount would have breached soft lock-in? I honestly have no idea. Anyway, at 50.8% perhaps ii will come forward when they see the 77 onsite and consistent sales of via or more trains each month.It was in MBU's best interest as shareholders to sell some to get ii to invest and push the sp up making their much larger retained shareholding head towards 86p+. They did get some placing shares at 30p a few months ago so they obviously expect the sp to go back above that but maybe that left them needing cash to pay the Bluestar loan interest? Again, I don't know. In the webinar Mr Iqbal said he wants the dividends and may invest more. Hopefully not via MBU. The MBU shareholding dividends at a high enough amount could pay off their loan. At 4 or more trains a month BEN has to become a dividend play. How much and at what month of this year it will be is pure guesswork until the city guys get to see the 31st March report. Us mere mortals probably have to wait till September for those results.

Next news should be MBU seller's TR1 , 77HWM assembled onsite, 77 mining, 4+ trains, and maybe an acquisition? I have no new news from Gilbert so just leave them to craic on. Only negative here would be if the 77 news doesn't come this month, or a valid reason for not needing it yet (pitcoal mining) but it would need to be in RNS, not Penstock rambling his theories on social media ;)

not so pleasing but at least we know the reason was not any fault of BEN. Just had the best month's sales with 5 train loads. According to the RNS January 13th: "Mobilisation of the components of unit 77 commenced yesterday and some equipment has already arrived on site. All required benching is complete and once the highwall miner has been re-assembled production is expected to start during February 2023" so that could well be as soon as next week. If mining with the 77 starts this month then Adam could well meet his full production target by Easter. 70-80KT a month.
Surprised even the day traders haven't snapped up at 20p for a punt that could net them a quick flip profit next week or at the very latest end of the month. Even just a 4p rise back to where we were last week is a 20% profit. Mad innit?

MBU sold 22m sold at a heavily reduced 17.1p via a broker(s) to iis whom paid 18p as has been said already. Word is (from bloke's niece's pet squaker in a pub) that it was more than one strong name institution that took the stock and it was heavily oversubscribed, but K3VMC seems to have 1st hand info that looks legit so go with what he said rather than my Northern Cardinal bird ;)

LT you are quacking me up with that fowl reference to MBU showing investors that BEN have all their ducks in a row.
22222222

If ii are happy to invest inspite of MBU holding a meer 0.8% above half then their plan seems to have worked. MBU release some cash to pay off some of their own loan interest; their reduced holding makes BEN a more attractive target for instis; the instis queue up to buy them and the market pops back to 24p in an orderly fashion....by the end of the week. You in for the long haul and divis Tonna, or just the 30% flip? ;)

Was wondering if MBU were selling any more to drop below 50% but biggest sell that was soon picked up seems to have been 0.125m

Thanks. Am stood waiting for my lad to get off the school bus so not got numbers infront of me. Can anyone tell me how many shares MBU would have to sell to go below 50% please?

Thanks K3VMC, good to know. I really expected a quick rise back to 24p today but just goes to show that I still have a lot to learn about the AIM game. Maybe Mohammed should have dipped below 50%, maybe he will.

77HWM, increase in production, more trains, more profits, dividends. All to look forward to. Possibly all before start of summer. Is new money and top-ups just waiting for RNS and video of the 77 chomping into the highwall with a backing track of Back In Black like we had when the 71 started? Could be next week. Or are folk waiting for the new financial year to start?