Member Info for penstock

Again I gotta agree with pawn.. I interpreted it the same way. Last year we had an Agreement to provide 264KT to Integrity (22KT a month). They hedged some trains at a fixed price and the rest at just below the 20 day average spot. I recall from podcast Adam saying they will be supplying 70-80% of each collier ship capacity when in full production, for export That would require 5-6 trains. Ben will supply trucked coal to CSX trains for domestic USA steel market. I didn't hear anything about the price being hedged from 1st April 23.
On a plus note though, sending out 55-66KT by NS each month and a further 10KT to CSX will see BEN at full production of 65-76KT each month.
Just a case of waiting for official news that the 77 is mining trains are loading and hopefully spot price rising back above 300 again once in full production in May.

Tbh that was my understanding of it too. I think the hedge was just until the end of Ben's financial year aka 31st March. Will have to listen to the most recent podcast yet again to see what Adam said about hedging although seeing it in RNS would be better.

I haven't asked since those 2 trains as it was more a case of checking if NS were still able to send trains rather than how many. What with derailments and floods in February. Anway, turns out everything is OK. They may well have had more trains since the 8th March, they are still trucking to CSX too, but probably best to hear it all in RNS than my keyboard ;)

1 train each day. Take 4-5 hours to fill each train using the fast flood chute. 2 trains x 11KT = 22KT

I know for fact they had a train onsite 7th and 8th March. I presume they trucked out a further 10KT to fill a CSX train for domestic market. Would expect them to fill 4xNS plus that 1xCSX by end of March (54KT?) like in January.
I have also heard that the cab section has been craned on to the 77HWM. Typically takes 2 days to assemble so maybe we get news at the end of the week to say that 'Bumblebee' has been fully assembled, hooked up to the generator and has made first rolling chomp into the Cedar Grove seam or whichever bench it went to. A big yellow HWM300 unit capable of mining taller seams than the 71HWM that is currently mining on the new Alma seam bench.

I've only just realised they meant March 2023 not the 23rd March. Ah well, give them till a week on Friday then.

The 13th Feb twitter post said:
"The Wirtgen 2200 Surface Miner has arrived at site. It can mine up to 500t per hour in harder materials and will initially be used to expand the #CGO open pit/clear the overburden, before commencing mining of the coking coal seam at a rate of up to 1,000t per hour from #March23"

March 23rd! This Thursday! The same day that the Chinese power plant in Hwange is due to fire up for the first time ;)

pawnsacrifice, I got similar margins using the figures from the podcast although to nitpick HiVolB dropped $2 to $288 last week. As Rob1967 pointed out those margin figures are before tax. Even if the sp only trebles sometime this year from the current 19.75p it is better than it sitting in a tech bank ;) Great for an ISA imo.

Not sure if anyone has commented about how the Roast podcast came across yesterday, but I'd like to commend Kevin for his questions that covered most of shareholder concerns without being too optimistic. If Adam achieves everything he stated in the podcast by June then BEN will be in full production (albeit a year later than what he implied last year) and the string will be shortened on that dividend carrot.
News and maybe photos next week of the 2nd HWM?
News and video of the HWM mining by April?
News of HWM in double shifts by May?
Loads of trains filling an 80KT ship by June/July and trucks too?
First dividend announcement June/July?
End of financial year (31 March) report before September?
Rise in global steel demand and thus market price for metcoal above $350?
All to look forward to.

With HiVolB at $288/metric tonne = $259/short ton = about $233 after broker fee
Adam's figures for total costs if we just use the lower range work out as
$115 opex + $50 transport so margin = $68 before tax
Filling 70% of an 80KT ship each month = 56KT export and trucking 10KT for domestic totals 66KT/month in full production.
(66KT x 12 months x $68 x P/E of 4) gives mcap of 215.4m with close on 400m shares so sp value of 54p which is near 3x today's sp.

Bens may well be able to produce 80KT a month with both HWMs and CMs but sales may only be for 66KT of it.
Everything is in US$ not £. Bens are not making £80 profit per ton. Once the 2nd HWM is producing in double shift then costs per ton should decrease but not sure that will even bring profits up to $80/ton let alone £80.
Have no doubt that timelines will be met now and with Ben in full production filling ships each month that NS will supply 5-6 trains/month by June while trucks to fill CSX hoppers take at least 1 train load/month.

Dividend still a dangling carrot that is much needed to make this stock of interest to the ii as well as us mere mortal shareholders and pi's. 10m debt from last year to pay plus loans and the 70%LTV fleet payments.
Adam and MBU will benefit greatly by being awarded dividends so they are bound to push for them this year but maybe split as a bi-annual payment of 2p & 4p or thereabouts? As a longterm play 18p seems cheap and potentially get your money back in dividends over 3 years maybe less. As a flip, could get 3x 18p by Christmas, maybe even summer if sentiment is rife and dividends are sufficient lure. I'm in from the start and here for the long haul so am just keeping it real and stating my opinion. Hope it does get to a £1 again like it did around this time last year but it will need the price of coal to rise significantly to generate the profits to warrant that value. All possible as the world build steel nuclear submarines and other fighting machines. Not forgetting steel to make cars and buildings and wind turbines yada yada.
As always, this is all just IMHO so DYOR and KTFIWACG ;) Might even get a TO bid once in steady full production. ya never know. btw, Good Ol' Luther has released a new rap. Link is on the 'unofficial Bens Creek' facebook group.

From the lowest to the highest figures given by Adam I get it to between $41-$68/short ton margin.

Billthebank, I know nothing about trains this month nor do I care to bother finding out. If there is an interview next week then it is best you hear talk of trains from the CEO. Was there talk of trains in the Roast Tgm group? They are inside so they should be the first to know. I have given up researching BEN now. More time to play happy families. I found out from a public video that there were no trains in February and that the HWM was still missing parts. I shared that news here and got slated for it. Seems people preferred to be kept in the dark. So am keeping the curtains closed now. Leave it to the showman to do his stuff next week and rightly so.
Am optimistic it will all come good but next week's news needs to address all concerns/delays/sales/debts/offtakes etc.

Rob & JH, I told you 9 days ago there were no NS trains in February. Are you saying it has taken you all 9 days to let that sink in? lol. The sp already wobbled last week. Nothing has changed in the last 9 days other than the CFO leaving to join his kinfolk in Turkey, taking 1m share options a few months early.
Bens were still using freight trucks to take coal to fill CSX trains. Not 80Kt or 40KT but enough to keep going and building a higher stockpile for when they can get more trains.
The CSX trains filled with BEN coal head north. AFAIK Bens do not use any of CSX trains east of Gilbert so today's bump with a boulder & dip in the river doesn't affect Ben. Now Ben have a large, growing stockpile I guess/speculate that NS will monitor that stockpile and send out 4 trains a month or maybe they will wait for the 77 to be seen mining to convince them that each of those trains can be filled. A catch22 really. No point mining more with 2xHWMs if they can't get the trains. If don't get the 2nd HWM, then they can't get more trains.
All fretting about a few pence. Everything is happening at the Creek. The 2nd HWM is a bit late, coal is being sold in relatively small amounts to CSX, NS are tardy sending trains, coal is being stockpiled for when the trains do come, which they will. HvolB at £295/t. End of a tax year cometh. Be great if the price is still low April 6th so can bed&ISA without paying CGT ;) Will be better if I do have to pay CGT though... ;)
It will all come good...

A drop to 18.75p just because the CFO has quit for family reasons?
Arondeep Binnig has been with the Company as financial officer for a year already and fully capable of fulfilling the caretaker role of CFO until a replacement is found. Murat will still be on-hand until July by which time BEN should be in full production and end of March financials sorted.

Arondeep Binnig, former MBU Group Accountant and BEN's financial officer is now Chief FO.
Murat has done an excellent job using his career experience in making BEN more efficient. It will be a big loss to the Company but hope his family and friends are OK back in Turkey and fully understand his need to be back home.

And an official BEN twitter page would be great where they can post photos/videos of surface prep blasting & clearing, pitcoal strip mining, haulage trucks being loaded, freight trucks taking coal offsite to CSX, NS trains arriving onsite to use the fast flood chute, #71 HWM mining the Alma A, #77 HWM commencing first cut, ESG reclamation, underground mining and other stuff that keeps shareholders inter-vested ;) Mind you, it doesn't seem to have done much for our friends in Zim recently. Must just be a lul in the commodity sector. Roll on Easter just because it is a new financial year and I like chocolate.
RNS Friday evening? Sunday Roast podcast? Or will Adam wait till the #77 is doing it's thang and NS loading up b4 talking to us? Just speculation and guesswork at the moment as I cba researching it anymore, some will be pleased to hear. Just have to wait for official news now.

With advance knowledge that the NS trains didn't come last month, it seems fair to say that the current 19.25p has factored freight issues in so the next round of news should pull the sp up. Be it that we have more trains or that we have more production with the 2nd HWM onsite, confirmation of sales since September or even offtake/TO deals.
Personally I have got used to being at this price for a few months now. With all the activity going on at the Creek to boost production, they are clearly optimistic that it will get sold. >trains=>sales=>revenue+profits=>sp & dividends. Disappointed with lack of information but they are cracking on and fundamentals all good. They apparently used freight trucks (40T) to haul out 16KT to the loading site to wait for CSX trains last month. 400 trucks, average 15 a day headed out each morning. 80KT would need 70+ trucks a day so hopefully NS start sending trains as NS will surely prefer that they get the $3.2m freight fee each month rather than their rivals CSX. Will save Bens paying the trucking fee and make operations a lot simpler using the onsite fast flood chute rather than the one at High Ridge mine or wherever it is that Ben's trucks are taking it to. Adam said it was going to Star Ridge but I think he meant High Ridge, machts nichts. All good things to come, am keeping the faith ;)

gwp91, wasn't it you who said on 28th February "Pen. Do you not realize that you are doing a lot more harm than good by posting speculation and guesswork like you did this morning." when in fact it was not speculation and guesswork.

Other than trucks leaving to fill CSX trains we are not aware of any NS trains since January. One was due 1st March but apparently did not arrive. Where are you hearing that Bens got trains coming to collect from the Creek? Great if they are, but will do more harm than good if just speculating ;) There is no reason that they are not coming so I hope you are correct. 4 would be nice.

I really could give a toss if you believe me or not Rob1967. If you want to believe there were trains at Bens Creek in February then good for you and maybe a big yellow HWM was there too, lol. But fact is, there were no trains and the 77HWM was still missing parts or did you miss that video on Tuesday morning? At least Albert mentions that the benches are ready for the HWM in today's video so no reason to take that one down. And it seems evident that a lotta coal has been shifted to create that bench where the 605s are loading up the overburden to clear site for the HWM to but up to the wall. It was confirmed that 10KT was sent to CSX in January.
Seems fair to 'assume' a further 10KT went there in February too as we all saw trucks being loaded with coal in that video to confirm it (well obviously not you Rob1967).
They may well have sent more than 10KT and they may well send >10KT to CSX this month too. Quantities sold since the end of January I do not know yet. Maybe your Roast Tgm buddies will let you know seeing as they are inside. Maybe they will tell you why the trains did not come in February. AFAIK the trains is the only issue that needs sorting. Everything is ontrack at the Creek ready to ramp up production. Get your roast buddies to ask Adam how they plan to shift 80KT coal offsite each month. Loads of trucks? A commitment from NS? Get NS to permit CSX to use their railroad?
What exactly is your contribution Rob1967? What have you brought to the table? Nothing and that there is another fact.
Watch the video. Do you think BENS would go to all the trouble of prepping those benches for the HWM if they hadn't already figured out how to shift the coal (ie sell it)?! I basically open the curtains, it is up to Adam to come on stage and put on the show. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RvnN-5uZzFQ

quit yer *****in' Jordan. Now you know why you were booted from my Tgm group.

On another note. You can see the tall coal seam in this video. Now imagine that seam as it was a couple months ago extending out to where the dozers are now. The dozers strip mined that coal and loaded it into 18 wheelers to be hauled out to CSX. They literally dug it out from beneath them after they had blasted and cleared away all the overburden above it. It must have been clean enough to ship without washing as that seam is solid coal.
So now that the coal has been stripped back to the high wall the dozers are just clearing the last of the overburden so that the HWM can be brought in to mine into that wall up to a depth of 1000'. Look at the height of that coal seam bearing in mind that a Komatsu 605 haul truck is 28ft high!
Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RvnN-5uZzFQ

You can see the tall coal seam in this video. Now imagine that seam as it was a couple months ago extending out to where the dozers are now. The dozers strip mined that coal and loaded it into 18 wheelers to be hauled out to CSX. They literally dug it out from beneath them after they had blasted and cleared away all the overburden above it. It must have been clean enough to ship without washing as that seam is solid coal.
So now that the coal has been stripped back to the high wall the dozers are just clearing the last of the overburden so that the HWM can be brought in to mine into that wall up to a depth of 1000'. Look at the height of that coal seam!
Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RvnN-5uZzFQ

Rob, I didn't predict a train. I quoted what a contractor had said on the public platform BEN facebook group chat "a train is due tomorrow". That was last Tuesday. Had no verification it showed up so assume NS delayed again. Go have a look for yourself. The chat is still there. Seems that since the youtube video got taken down announcing no trains that people are shy to talk any more in public. Have the Roast guys not already confirmed that there were no trains in February in the Tgm group you are in? Have they put any positive spin on it or they waiting till middle of March to start pumping?
Look everything at Bens Creek is doing well. It is just a shortage of trains that is holding things up. Without trains to take the coal away there is no point having a 2nd HWM onsite as the stockpile is high enough. Once NS commit trains BEN has every real possibility of doing 960KT a year. Just need to hear from the CEO as to what they plan to do to ensure a commitment of 4+ trains each month from NS as trucking 80KT to CSX each month isn't really a consideration, is it?