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We had an RNS last week so how come no speeding ticket today?
Bens Creek Group plc (AIM:BEN), the owner of a metallurgical coal mine in North America supplying the steel industry, notes today's share price movement and probably won't confirm that it is not aware of any commercial or operational reason for the share price movement.
lol. Gotta laugh as shareholders are being kept in the dark. Guess MBU won't get 18p for those 12m shares now, or maybe they just did and the BoDs will be able to confirm that they are aware of a commercial reason for the share price movement. Or maybe they will confirm that they are aware of an operational reason for share price movement as the second HWM is not operational.
Hopefully they get that yellow HWM operational as the King gets a crown on his noggin and the Roast guys delay their trip to enable time to get a video of coal being extracted by the HWM300, albeit not 80KT!
a Mega lack of news causing speculation and despondency. That said, if I had some spare cash I'd be topping up today but that would be my gambling addiction to try and lower my average. The new 2nd HWM will be mining next month, 3 months later than last planned, about 11 months since the #20 was planned. Heck the marketprice of metcoal might even bounce back up by June, just in time for double production.
Need some news this month, rather than waiting for Phil n the other bloke to get their airmiles. -77+81

Ben so need to release figures showing sales since September selling washed coal by rail. Otherwise we are just speculating costs and profits. The $100/t profit I offered based on WHI DCF does seem optimistic considering how the market price has dropped. It is up to the BoDs to reassure the minority shareholders (ie all of us, not MBU & Adam) that we are OK and that they are not jerking us about like they did with the #20WHM and promises of 80KT this time last year.
Will there be a TR1 this coming week?
News about the 77 and any other yellow HWM300?
Tons sold and any other figures?
Loan repayments?
Or must we wait for the muted Roasters to visit site in 11 days?

Depends if the $115-25/T costs include shipping.
According to page 6 DCF in the WHI broker report shipping costs are $40/T and opex around $70/T making shipped costs $110.
Using figures pulled from the broker and podcast I put together a spreadsheet where you can type in the current coal price to see what profits are expected selling coal from just one HWM for 2 months and from 2 of them as of June.
http://www.crews-inn.co.uk/ben/benspreadsheet.xlsx
No guarantee it is correct as would need to see official end of year (31st March) financial report to pull more accurate costings/profits. We didn't get it until August last year, so don't expect it anytime soon.
A quarterly update would be good to see how many tons shipped since January and confirmation of amounts sold since September too. Had a train a few days ago and 1 a week ago. Hopefully averaging 4 trains a month or I'll have to redo my spreadsheet, lol.
The PR duo didn't mention BEN or even the Zim mine in today's podcast. Have they fallen out with coal? Well, they are visiting Bens Creek 4th May. Saving all updates until they are onsite? Can Mega get a big replacement yellow HWM onsite within 11 days to start mining 80KT or even 40KT or will we just get a video of the red 71 again?
I don't want to see Luther counting trains but I would like an honest update on the HWM situation considering that the January RNS stated it would be mining February. It is mid April and still no working 2nd HWM onsite. Got 77..81 reasons to be disappointed with communications from the BoDs having being strung along with the narrative of the #20HWM doubling production last year. Maybe they should just keep blasting benches and surface mine the pitcoal. The 2xHWMs will then have a long stretch of cleared bench to mine and the CSX trains can keep getting filled with pitcoal.

What is the consensus on amount of trains this calendar year? 4xNS & 1xCSX in January, 1xCSX in February (0xNS), 4xNS & 1xCSX March? That would total 110K short tons (100KT) last quarter, so $10m profit? Or is $100 margin too ambitious? Maybe as I think there is an extra $20/t trucking cost for the CSX trains although that is for domestic supply so no export shipping costs. I honestly don't know until we see some official figures from BEN.

http://www.crews-inn.co.uk/ben/benspreadsheet.xlsx
Not official numbers or formulas but feel free to use it as a baseline to stick in your own numbers/formulae.
If it is almost correct then all you need to change is the coal price that is currently at 235 per metric ton on the spreadsheet. Current prices would give $60m EBITDA if spreadsheet is correct, based on 41K (April, May) and 76K (rest of the financial year) short tons sold.

JH my figures for theses first 2 months of the financial year were based on 35 clean short tons from the 71HWM and 6.5K short tons from the CM.

My spreadsheet clearly shows the conversion of short to metric. It is a free download so have a play and modify it with whatever formulae and figures you deem more apt.

If you are in my Penstocks group BEN Tgm group then you can download my spreadsheet and type in the metric ton coal price to automate cashflow predictions based on 41Kt a month April and May and 76Kt each month after. The formulae are based on numbers from Adam's interviews and WHI broker report but should not be relied on as exact as am not an accountant.

It seems unlikely that the second HWM will commence mining at Bens Creek this month.
The Mega Highwall Mining Company needed parts for the 77 which they apparently couldn't get hold of. They may as well take it back to Kentucky and send us the #81. In the meantime, if a contractual agreement has been signed for Mega to produce a minimum tonnage each month then BEN should be compensated by them IMO. Shame they couldn't have used the #20 that Mega told Adam to sell a few months ago. A mega mess.

The $10 drop to $245/T had been forecast and may well drop a tad more. However, if the formulae I use are correct then with just the 1HWM and CM operating in April & May and 2xHWMs (both in double shift) and CM operating in June, using a low average of $245/metric Ton, BEN should expect to turnover $183m revenue this financial year and $70m EBITDA which after taking off tax and $15m of capex (buying the yellow iron) would leave $38m cashflow. A P/E of just 3.5 would give the 60p sp valuation that the Roasters predict for later this year. Mind you, they predicted £1.50 sp last year with 10p dividends so best do your own homework. If they get 4 trains in April & May and 7-8 trains from June onwards those figures can be achieved and the cashflow will permit dividends to be paid.
My take on expected flow of events will be the TR1 of MBU sale, TR1 of new investor, resources update, a replacement 2nd HWM starting mining single shift, then into double shifts, appointment of CFO, Quarterly update on tons sold, dividend announcement, then either a TO offer by the new 'international commodities investor' or a new official Offtake Agreement as one has not been stated in RNS since the 2021 Agreement with Integrity ended, or did it just roll over on same terms (just below 20 day spot average)?
May well drop back due to market prices and delays and to get the MBU shares sold, but once that event flow of news I just itemised starts then I see us doing well. I'll just be happy to break even in summer as it has been a really tough year since JS dumped his load and we had all the missed timelines. Could be a good couple of weeks to buy cheap, but if I was thinking of investing in BEN for the first time I'd probably wait for newsflow and buy in the 20s as a couple of pence is nothing compared to 60p if it looks like heading that way. But as always DYOR. GL.

This is NOT an RNS but might be one soon, or might not, who knows!:
<Post disposal, MBU would then continue to hold 94,962,000 Ordinary Shares representing 23.8% of the ordinary issued share capital of the Company. In addition Mohammed Iqbal, MBU's ultimate beneficial owner, holds 3,333,336 Ordinary Shares in the Company representing 0.89% of the ordinary share capital of the Company. Neither MBU nor Mohammed Iqbal would hold majority voting rights in the Company Bens Creek after that sale.
The TR1 notification might be received today from MBU and set out the details of MBU's shareholding in the Company....or it might not.
The 77 HWM might have needed parts that were not readily available and seeing as the #20HWM got sold Mega couldn't borrow them from that. Instead Mega might have brought in another HWM300 unit, let's call it number 81 and put that to work instead.>>

Fill your boots when this drops back to 18p and don't expect another speeding ticket for >10% rise after the MBU TR1 and the TR1 from the 'international commodity trading business' (Insert name here: Cleveland Cliffs, ArcelorMittal SA, POSCO Holdings Inc, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd, Nippon Steel Corp, Nucor Corp...). Bens Creek might be prepping a bbq for when the PR duo turn up in a few weeks so they can roast some sausages and maybe do some actual PR other than to tell you that you should have sold last year at 80p. At least they predict 60p this year (not £1.50) and that does actually seem realistic if the 2xHWMs are in double shift in June and permits passed for the CM to continue mining too.

This is just an RNS in the land of expectations :) It should all come good. Lack of comms is a big issue as in not getting the news we are wanting/expecting (HWM update, eoy finances, resources update, tons sold in last 4 months (Qrly), debt repayments, % of rail spur owned by BEN now, dividends? (too soon, maybe summer?), any signed offtake agreement since end of the last 12 month one with Integrity, new benches cleared for both HWMs, amount of days without accidents, any new awards, any gold (oh getting mixed up with CGO), lol.
Back to my rum n coke and days in the sunny garden away from tinterweb. Unless there is an RNS may as well leave BC to craic on. Enjoy Spring, summer should be great if we get positive updates. No speeding ticket for falling today. funny that, not.

CM, 71 -77 +81

MBU loose controlling voting rights. This is a good thing.
Sets BEN up for a TO deal this year at a price that nears the WHI 86p forecast? Or maybe just encourages II to consider investing for potential dividends without that concern of MBU holding >50% control.
18p seems like a cheap cash call but MBU are still making a huge profit at that amount.
News of a second working HWM chomping coal out of a tall seam would be good.

+81 -77 ;)

If planning to add some BEN to your £20K ISA at some point this year and believe that dividends will be paid then bear in mind that you can get about 115,600 tax free dividend paying shares for 17.3p but only 100,000 at 20p. If 6p dividends get paid then that 2.7p sp difference equates to close to £1K tax free! Bed&ISA, Happy New Year!
Not sure if it is true, but have heard that if you set a TradePlan to sell at £2 it stops the MMs from borrowing your shares for shorters etc.

oh and CityG is on about making a 3rd Tgm group https:// ****/ benscreek

official BEN Roast PR Tgm: ****/+Sr99GNn55fkxODE0
non official BEN Tgm: ****/+N83m547W2XE1ZWY0

and at a PE of just 4 that would give a 65p sp value plus dividends could be announced from the profits.
Need news of the 77 mining or Bens will only have the 71 and CM to produce enough to fill 4 trains each month, not 7.
Mega are still recruiting staff. Could it be that Mega don't yet have the 1 & half crews at Bens Creek that Adam told us about in the latest podcast. Or are the electrical tests something more than pressing the ON switch and getting the logic computer to mobilise moving parts? Would have thought all that would have been sorted out back in Ky. Mega had months to get it ready following Adam's request for this 77HWM300 unit back in June.

AFAIK the Agreement with integrity is a rolling one at 20 day average of just below PLATTS' market price for HiVolB.
Bound to be a few whom will disagree and say it has been hedged at a fixed price similar to those last 8 trains of 2022 but until any new/rolling offtake Agreement is announced by RNS it is just speculation. Best to err on the downside, putting coal around $270/T average over the last 20 days.
If the 77 starts mining a day or 2 after the Easter bunny has gone and Bens get 4 trains this month and 4 in May ramping up to 7 shipments (NS & trucks to CSX) then even a 20 day average of $260/T should give an $80.7m EBITDA and $46m cashflow if my spreadsheet has any credence.
Tgm spreadsheet: ****/c/1758165359/15671

I think my last spreadsheet figures put $175 as break even market price. The 2021 Marshall Miller Associate report stated "Ben's Creek provided MM&A with forward looking pricing data. Data provided by Ben's Creek assumes a flatlined $115 per ton (FOB-Railcar) realization for the duration of the project"
The Admission Document said "Resource market prices are affected by numerous factors beyond the Group’s control including inflation, global and regional consumption patterns, demand and supply, speculative activities, international political and economic trends, currency exchange fluctuations, interest rates, production costs and increased production due to new and improved extraction and production methods. The aggregate effect of these factors on resource prices is impossible for the Group to predict. The Group intends to monitor commodity prices in forecasting its cash flow requirements for the funding of its ongoing development and corporate activities and estimate development costs in bringing assets into production. The Group does not presently invest in commodity hedges to mitigate the risk. While the Group seeks to manage its capital and operating expenditures to maximise shareholder returns, the value of the Group’s projects and its financial performance may be highly dependent on commodity prices.
The Project has a history of losses and there can be no assurance that it will be profitable. The Company expects to continue to incur losses until such time as it develops and commences profitable mining operations on the Project.
A dividend may never be paid and, at present, there is no intention to pay a dividend in the short to medium term.
In forming their dividend policy, the Directors have taken into account, inter alia, the trading outlook for the foreseeable future, recent operating results, budgets for the following financial year and current capital requirements of the Group. Any material change or combination of changes to these factors may require a revision of this policy.
The market price of the Ordinary Shares could be negatively affected by sales of substantial amounts of such shares in the public markets, including following the expiry of the lock-in period in respect of the Locked-in Persons and Existing Shareholders, or the perception that these sales could occur. On Admission, the Concert Party will hold 74.07 per cent. of the Share Capital. Investors may negatively perceive this level and concentration of share ownership due to the influence that the Concert Party may resultantly exert, which may adversely affect the market value of the Ordinary Shares. The Concert Party may have the ability to determine the outcome of matters requiring Shareholder approval, including appointments to the Board and significant corporate transactions. In addition, the interests of the Concert Party may be different from the interests of the Group or other Shareholders as a whole."
I should have read it with more diligence last year, lo

WHI Report and podcasts and the half year financial report released last December are your research points.

If you just invested then you are only 70% above the IPO 10p price when Bens were still fixing up the place and selling nowt.
If you join the Tgm groups you can click through all the history and pinned notes. You can click here on my username for my take on the costs that I posted last week and break even points based on figures given in the above research suggestions but am no accountant!
The 24th November 2021 podcast Adam said they get $100 as soon as the coal hits the ground. He said a lot of things tbf and hooked a few of us with barbed steel hooks made from metcoal. Everything was happening and about to be 960KT a year but it didn't. The market price dropped from $450/T, loans were taken out, JS had a supposed margin call and the PR pump machine stalled.
Now waiting on news that the long awaited 77HWM300 unit I call Bumblebee is starting to mine the seams on the highwall that only got permit in September 22 and benches cleared recently, about 9 months later than expected. Geez, Mega and Ben must have been on IVF having abandoned Ben's smaller #20 child that was left in the corner all year until it found a new home. It served it's purpose of getting gullible people like me to believe they would be using it last year to double production and to raise loans.
If the #77 starts mining by Easter and doubles shifts by summer then a recent investment should do well especially if dividends get announced this year rather than just talked about. If I wasn't already invested I'd probably hold off till the RNS comes out to say the 77 is mining and that NS are sending at least 4 trains each and every month although 6 or 7 would be ideal. The end of year report wasn't published for a few months last year so nobody can honestly answer your questions. Always best to DYOR ;)
The only positive of this sp is that I can bed & ISA at the end of the week and not pay any CGT as it will be at a loss. If no news by next Tuesday following the Easter break then Bens will have learnt nothing about shareholder sentiment.

With Easter this weekend 2 weeks since 71 assembly there surely has to be an RNS update due to say the 77 is mining and a hint towards sales/profits for the last 6 months (Ben's financial YE was 31st March). At 17.75p they need to chuck us shareholders a bone. Not expecting the meat of a dividend just yet, but am hungry to learn that my money will grow by summer assuming coal doesn't slide down anymore. Have just listened to the podcast from 24thNov2021 when the 71HWM had just been assembled. There was an energy about BEN then and they hadn't even got the rail or washplant working. It was only a matter of days till the 71 started mining. Guess the electricals on the yellow HWM300 are more complex or just waiting for Mega to recruit the staff?
Is the 77HWM mining yet? Is BEN making a profit? Are they paying off debts? Have they booked a fixed amount of trains from June? Has the Reserve report update been completed and what implications does it have on LOM?

Wirtigen, neck. Excuse the early morning typos on my phone.