Member Info for Penguins

'UKOG's problem could well end up being that the matrix does contain oil, but the fractures contain water.'

I suspect that's the case, and funnily enough I think that's similar to the interpretation that there's an OWC in Alfold that's about the same as Godley Bridge coincides with a change in the facies of the Portland - with much lower permeability (in the porosity vs permeability plot for Alfold the 'above OWC' is wrongly identified - look at the colour of plotted points, not the ellipses) above the presumed OWC - which then justified their absurd contouring of closure to the east. That would leave just a pimple where they plan to drill.

As for Pinarova I suspect they'll string along pi for as long as possible - to sort of justify their choice of drilling Pinarova - look all these layers to test - just unlucky it doesn't flow.

ZYX,

There was no casing below the 95/8 already set at 287m. They swabbed (obviously) open hole and they didn't mention doing another casing run.

Wouldn't be surprised if there weren't losses if the anomaly is greater fracturing.

I'd hope they would RNS reaching TD - with some information on if there were any shows.

If no RNS tomorrow a long, nervy, wait until Tuesday.

More like squeezing money out of punter's pockets, with the farm in to HH giving him a platform to cross ramp PPP to those that have been 'charmed' already.

DL feeding a group of 'believers' BS they're going to repeat ad nauseum - what could possibly go wrong.

Whether it's legal or not it certainly isn't ethical that the Chairman of a company farming into one of UKOG's licences joins a closed group and then starts making comments about the farm in that could include 'insider' knowledge as PPP will have had access to all the data and reports associated with the testing and production.

Ocelot - could be the latest 'new technology' (mostly unspecified) claim that has been suggested since HH-1 was drilled that was going to make a difference to unproductive and poorly flowing reservoirs - like 'fishbones' that was never used.

On the subject of fish - hook, line and sinker comes to mind.

JR90,

belief in UKOG has lost a lot of people a lot of money. The best option so far has been to assume that the projects will fail - but not ignore that there's plenty who believe and will buy on the flimsiest of 'positives'.

The only way anyone can make money is on the expectation of good news and timing selling before results arrive. This has been true for BB, HH-2z, Basur and so far for Pinarova. HH was able to be dragged out for a long time with carefully selected flow rates and never giving current information during production - giving 3 months grace before the high levels of early decline or water production became known - and giving free reign to misleading reports of flow and activities - but not by UKOG. Even seeming success eventually turns, if not to dust, to a miserable outcome.

Of course if Loxley gets farmed out there will be a flurry of interest - but the well won't be drilled until 2024, and expect DL to big up the HH 3D shooting later this year which may, or may not, lead to PPP drilling HH-3 - probably in 2024, a 2 well programme with Loxley could lead to cost savings (and excessive ramping). Not sure if there's any vibroseis crews in the UK these days to acquire the seismic - if not it would sensible to share mob/demob costs with Loxley acquisition - though UKOG were vague and suggested it would be in 2024. Permitting 3D if there's any opposition from landowners near both sites could be tricky though access fees may sway the decision.

But has the PPP farmin been completely agreed yet - and how are PPP going to fund it - 12 sq km of onshore 3D won't come cheap, let alone the HH well. The PPP 'Wishing' (actually Whistling) well was forecast to flow between 100 and 400bopd - with PPP getting less than 20% of that with ambitions elsewhere as well as the HH farmin.

Interesting they haven't gone for the Loxley farm out though - given the supposed huge resources.

It's lucky DL doesn't do foolish negative details like funding and risks.

As for Pinarova surely the primary target has at least partially been drilled. SRBS as for SS misleading, of course not, but the promise of testing discrete oil zones comes with the caveat they need to be identified from the logging interpretation - but at least that will be open hole - let's hope they don't end up casing the well just to test some 'long shots'.

Fish face - you may think so - I couldn't possibly comment.

& Sting - you posting about the Kimmeridge doesn't get me excited - it depresses me that you're so far down the rabbit hole of belief (or are you?) you repeat stuff that is so out of date there's been 4 prime ministers since the Kimmeridge was first hailed as billions of barrels - of oil in a place it was almost all staying there.

Sting,

Why is DL quoting OIP for the Portland calculated in 2018, before the testing and before HH-2z when the mapping was significantly changed. Of course it's because having promised several times to do a CPR since then UKOG haven't had one done despite all the testing and production whilst getting one done for Loxley based on very little data.

Of course UKOG still quote the 2018 contingent resources for HH in their Annual reports, less production,although they do have a current NPV valuation of £0.8mm based on a decline curve and future expectations of production for HH-1 - internally generated and kept secret.

As for the Kimmeridge still no CPR ever backing up the ridiculous 2015 volumetrics or 2018 testing claims, though there has been a June 2019 RPS report UKOG chose to keep secret for ovet 18 months, and then only mentioned it as a footnote to the resources that had 1.6mmbbls gross 2C resources. There was a lot of testing, and a report and UKOG decided not to sidetrack into, nor dual complete HH-1 for Kimmeridge production.

Why does it seem that UKOG doesn't want anybody to know about these supposedly fabulous assets.

Luckily DL is renowned for his honesty.

The Pinarova primary target is shown as being between 400 and 480m in the Pinarova presentation slides.

The previous drilling took the well to 400m and they were planning to drill ahead yesterday.

Are UKOG going to stay silent until they reach TD at 550m? Surprised the pictures tweeted yesterday didn't show a blowout judging by comments here of how successful this well was going to be after the testing RNS disappointment on Tuesday - sorry - SP drop because of the IG TR1 about thèm selling Friday.

After all nobody was expecting good news from the swabbed testing - especially those that blamed the drop on the TR1........

Bigfoot,

what's happened to the SP since 2017 - have you held because rampers and UKOG keep telling you how great the projects are - held through the 10p because of the £1 party? Held every other time for the 10p, 5p, 2p, 0.9p (that's for ocelot), 0.5p, 0.2p that certain posters promised for a while and then disappeared.

I'm not anyone's friend here, nor do I want to be; nor do I care how many ignore or insult or filter me.

You suppose what a few people who, certainly in my case, are not a tag team, say about UKOG's projects actually shift the SP because they are 'negative' when the company has been so obviously successful - with failed drill after failed drill and a field that averaged 56bopd + water in January that was going to produce 3,500bopd within a year of start up.

Perhaps you should have taken note and sold when the SP rose before an RNS with realityin it arrived - it's not as if some posters weren't predicting it? Yes it's hard to predict the top and I sold some early on Friday taking a risk with the rest that the RNS didn't arrive Monday morning - but that's trading. UKOG isn't an investment - those sating how great Pinarova / Loxley / HH-3 will be gone on a good P&D and maybe return - like some have already for second pickings on Pinarova - like a con man promising to get your money back if you'll pay a bit more.

Perhaps you can think of something that's reached a conclusion that's anywhere near UKOG's expectations?

JR90,

It hasn't settled higher, UKOG has managed to delay the probable (high likelihood of) bad news by spending a lot more cash, having already wasted some doing the swabbed test, which has enabled another P&D. Not sure what's in this approach for UKOG as it just seems to confirm their reputation for questionable RNS.

So far I hope posters reading your posts remember - fool me once shame on you...........

Nookie,

It helps if you're right with timing. Those that spent Friday and Monday, and Tuesday mornignsaying how great the swabbed test would be (eg JR90) were wrong. But many that also said that knew there was high risk and sold on Monday - and then there are those that were prepared in the face of a blizzard of BS positivity (and insults) were prepared to say the swabbed test would be poor - now what might they have done - held for the results??

Mick,

It depends on the gullibility of pi I suppose. Pinarocva is extremely unlikely to be a gusher of anything but water - and even that looks unlikely as Kezer (400m away) was considered unsuitable for geothermal.

I stick to posting about the projects - fully expect there to be P&D's during drilling but this looked like a poor choice that had a certainty of oil shows if not much else.

UKOG probably hoped the swabbed test would recover a sniff of oil. To save face it looks like they will spend more money trying to find oil pay in the zone where they had oil shows - though the one thing they demonstrated with the Pinarova presentation was that the good poropermss weren't in that zone. If there's oil in the limestone it won't flow, and from the swabbed test seemed to demonstrate the fractures that floe are water filled.

Posters of a certain persuasion often ask why UKOG doesn't get rod of all there experts and just read the 'derampers' ( or realists I prefer) posts - the answer is their experts will have come to similar conclusions- but this is AIM and if they can squeeze a bit of uncertainty or an equivocal statement out of a bad result they will.

Incidentally the only people bigging up Pinarova were / are posters and tweeters and their imaginative posts.

The RNS does not say anything about oil pools below where they tested. The primary target may be but there is no certainty that there will be oil in it.

Yesterday you claimed this justified that claim - where?

'in order to evaluate the oil shows more fully, after the primary target has been drilled and 550 metre total depth reached, it is planned to run electric logs to identify oil pay, followed by cemented 7" casing.' '

If anything it sounds as if the logging is to check out the oul shows they have already, and at the moment they're the only shows they have.

Did they had an inkling (Kezer-1?) their best chance of oil shows / oil flow were in the uppermost Hoya section hence the stop and test that was a waste of time as they would know any result, even if it had flowed oil would require a return to find out where it was coming from. UKOG ever happy to waste money to mug their investors.

The primary target is based on an amplitude anomaly that has only been put through a simple process on the stacked data which may indicate improved poroperms - to identify hydrocarbons using seismic needs, apart from the right conditions, processing pre-stack data and comparing offset stacks.

Should be news today.......... maybe, as the primary target is just below 400m.

JR90,

At least you got one thing right yesterday morning:-

'Price: 0.105
Buy
RE: The Company has ample funds to cover its share of the planned drilling and testing campaign. 25 Apr 2023 09:4

Once we get confirmation of the swab test results you will never see these prices again.'

Beware the out and out rampers who got their timing wrong and are desperate to sell.

Even if there are more oil shows there will be a week while they drill to TD, case, log and then if they identify any oil 'pay' perforate the well then assemble the test kit.

The swabbed test produced no oil, and barely any formation water. It isn't equivocal it's just UKOG avoided saying 'no oil'. If there had been a sniff of oil I'm sure the UKOG wellsite geologist would have made sure it was mentioned yet:-

'Swabbing the 107-metre open test zone initially returned only drilling fluids which then became cut with possible formation water during the latter stages of testing.'

The primary target is a zone of improved poroperm just below where the drill stopped for the test. They will know pretty quickly whether there's oil or water in it, 100metres into the 'reservoir' with no oil flow just above it - seems a long shot. The question is whether UKOG consider keeping quiet until TD allows the fevered imaginations that produced Monday's rise to get going g again.

Ocelot,

'WHERE ANY DISCRETE IDENTIFIED OIL ZONES CAN BE PERFORATED AND ISOLATED FROM ANY WATER BEARING INTERVALS'

This is a fractured reservoir - whilst it isn't horizontal the problem of fractures beyond the well bore feeding into an isolated zone will exist.

I take this to be pretty damning though - 'Initial swab test results are inconclusive, neither confirming nor wholly refuting whether the oil shows seen from 358 metres downwards represent an oil pay zone'. Nor wholly refuting sounds like they're pretty sure there is no oil 'pay zone'....... but maybe..... Sounds more like a saving face statement than a real hope.

They didn't get any oil returns - 'Swabbing the 107-metre open test zone initially returned only drilling fluids which then became cut with possible formation water during the latter stages of testing' - and it sounds like not a lot of formation water.

So they are now en route to spending the complete the well for production budget, without any idea whether there's anything worth producing. They're suggesting that the water might be from above or below the oil show interval 'The water ingress recovered may possibly be derived from fractured limestones either above or below the zone corresponding to the onset of oil shows'.

If they start drilling tomorrow assuming fast progress they should quickly reach the primary target at around 400m (as shown on the sweetness attribute seismic section). As they drilled to 400m in the previous drilled section they may have tagged the primary target - a worry if the water is from below the oil shows.

SunnY51'

The IG TR1 today was for shares they sold on Friday, yesterday's was for the purchases that just took them over 3% from just below last Wednesday. I posted yesterday there would probably be a TR1 where they sold Friday to cover their clients closing long 'bets'. I'd assume they probably sold a lot of the rest yesterday though as their holding was under 3% after Friday's sales there is no way of knowin. Looking at the price action today within minutes of 12:17 the SP had dropped from 0.102p to 0.085 on very little volume - though they were probably inundated with pi trying to sell. When the IG TR1 hit a little later there was another drop - but the SP recovered a little and then gently declined to close.

JR90,

you posted:-

'there you go penguins

'in order to evaluate the oil shows more fully, after the primary target has been drilled and 550 metre total depth reached, it is planned to run electric logs to identify oil pay, followed by cemented 7" casing.' '

in support of this post 'THE OIL POOLS 550M DOWN... ITS STATED IN THE RNS.'

really? - your RNS excerpt says nothing of the sort.

Regardless - as they haven't drilled the next section there is no identified oil pay anywhere below the current TD - and in fact as they haven't run electric logs either there is as yet no identified 'oil pay, no mention of any oil pool in the RNS - and I doubt they'd choose 550m as TD if they thought there was any chance of oil being there.

I suspect they had an inkling (Kezer-1?) their best chance of oil shows / oil flow was in the uppermost Hoya section hence the stop and test. The primary target is based on an amplitude anomaly that has only been put through a simple process on the stacked data which may indicate improved poroperms - to identify hydrocarbons using seismic needs, apart from the right conditions, processing pre-stack data and comparing offset stacks. Pretty standard these days I'm surprised UKOG didn't at least try this - or maybe they did - the lack of an expected oil response wouldn't necessarily mean it wasn't there though.

So there are either two posters telling fibs - or two who haven't read the RNS and are making it up.

UKOG have said nothing about there being oil in the next section and it's TD that is at 550 metres. The 'primary target' amplitude anomaly - possibly indicative of better poroperms, not oil - is above that anyway - not far below the casing point. If when drilling to TD UKOG are silent about oil but mention losses - that will probably be the amplitude anomaly zone.

Though apologies are in order as it's possibly more negative.......

'Initial swab test results are inconclusive, neither confirming nor wholly refuting whether the oil shows seen from 358 metres downwards represent an oil pay zone'

Nor wholly refuting.........

Here's a couple of posts from yesterday - both FAO JR90 who doesn't seem to understand the markets or O&G E&P.

Penguins
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 4,613
Price: 0.121
No Opinion

RE: The Company has ample funds to cover its share of the planned drilling and testing campaign. 24 Apr 2023 09:57

JR90,

How much will interest wane if the uppermost part of the Hoya - you know oil is found above the water leg - tests, like Kezer, fluid with a heavy oil cut.

If the RNS is all about hundreds of bbls of oil with a bit of water whoopee. If it's more about drilling ahead to the amplitude anomaly - watch out.'

and....

'RE: The Company has ample funds to cover its share of the planned drilling and testing campaign. 24 Apr 2023 09:50
JR90,

The TR1 was for an increase in SH on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised to see another soon with them selling Friday to cover closed long bets.'

UKOG are still clinging to their 'working hypothesis' but not mentioning the Kezer well results drilled just 400 metres away.

Adrian / sinclair C5

what does this mean then from the Caheirman's Report in the 2022 AMEAnnual Report:- 'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners'

Whilst they don't mention Pinarova by name it does seem AME's Chairman thinks the costs are being carried by our 'JV partners' -UKOG.

It's possible there's a translation issue but being cheap, quick and carried doesn't sound like the greatest endorsement of a planned drill anyway.

I would be cautious saying it's a fact but I've checked and UKOG only state they are paying their share of the well. If they really are sole-risking then their share will be 100%. They've also put their own well site geologist on this drill.

Paulio,

Years ago I wasn't positive - how terrible - I wasn't winding people up - just telling it how I saw it. What was the SP at the end of 2018 when you bought in (you said in April 2021 you'd been in 2 1/2 year).

But your first post:-

'Paulio11
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 93
Price: 0.138
Strong Buy

???? UKOG JOV turkey Goverment approval imminent,14 Dec 2020 09:13
This time next year it is shear maths here, the project is set in stone and the fact they have just applied for a further 3 weal basins, this company is going to be a huge buy 2021 the facts speak for themselves. £16 million net profits it’s not rocket sciences I holed 14 million shares and not selling'

Well that ramp turned out well.

Then you turned after the April 2021 rampathon:-

'RE: Accounts and very big red flags by accountants! 18 Apr 2021 09:10
No I actually have my average price right down on ukog and doing ok, I just don’t like the new people turning up here making out there experts when they clearly are rampers! They will run away when it’s a red day and hide! But the second they can try get people into a trap it’s a blood bath, I like consistency and informed decisions not these wannabe jokers ramping to make a quick buck, ukog could be a huge success and truly hope it is, just trying to get people to see when it’s safe to jump in and open there eyes!'

You like consistency and informed decisions - I justify what I say - you may not like it - many don't, but I go by research not just what UKOG and posters say - but I never say anything will definitely fail - just the risks pile up on the sort of projects that UKOG can get into. If I learnt anything at work it was that being optimistic is easy, everyone wants to hear a good story - but make sure they also know what the risks are - UKOG didn't for so many of the projects, at least in their public utterances.

Being aware you can take your money out at any time in a bet on a horse that might look good for the first 5 furlongs but the chances of winning aren't good is not a negative - listening to the crowd cheering it on as it slips back through the field is. I make no bones that I sell on P&D's as does the cheering crowd - leaving lots of punters holding their betting slips that at least are valid for the next race - maybe even joining the cheering crowd in the next 'race' to do the same unto others - eh paulio

Ocelot,

A curious alternate reality where if the SP has dropped a huge amount it's justified to make anything up ......because the SP has declined to this extent.

The reality is it has risen massively on an expected oil show in anticipation according to UKOG of..........erm - a test to see what the oil saturation might be and presumably the flow rate that a swabbing test with minimal equipment might fail to find out.

2 days into a swabbing test no news. I'm waiting for a poster to claim it must be good news because UKOG have to release bad news immediately as some posters were keen to lie about during the BB rampathon.

JR90(?)

Oh dear 'growth', arrogant supposed market expert - sound familiar.

Luckyswimmer,

You are aware that a well drilled 400metres away, Kezer-1, had oil shows through the Hoya according to UKOG. Getting an oil show never was a risk.

UKOG detailed in January what one of the risks was risk was (a departure from previous drills) - never to be repeated so as to not scare the punters who don't look beyond the latest RNS.

'Pinarova-1 will, therefore, be designed to test if light oil is present in commercially viable saturations and quantities within the Hoya'

The Kezer well, according to UKOG, tested fluid with a heavy oil cut from the Hoya. The purpose of this well is to find out what the oil cut is and thus how much oil is there - expecting an oil cut rather than water cut is an unusaul starting point - however until the well is properly tested neither oil saturation nor quantity of oil will be accurately known - whether ir will be accurate enough to decide whether to properly test the well - which in Turkey for a 'finder' well would effectively be putting it into trial production - UKOG probably don't care.

Sting,

Where did I say that the Kimmeridge was not viable in the Loxley report? As you point out I repeated SS's assertion of 30 to 40% - and nothing else

UKOG is a past master of saying something, doing nothing, going silent.

Unbalanced negativity? What is the positivity for the Kimmeridge, where in the past 3 years has it been anything but a few words in a RNS or Annual Reports? A glib remark from DL?

The middle ground between failure and success in exploration is not failure.

Of course traders want all positive RNS or posts, and none of the annoying technical stuff and exploration history that helps understand what outcome is really likely.

I'm constantly accused of always being negative - perhaps more important have any of UKOG's claims of what the outcome will be for any project been even close to the result?

With Pinarova they may finally have learnt to stay silent as to the likely outcome and leave it to the imagination of the traders.