Member Info for Penguins

Sting,

You called?

Sometimes it's better to be right than in the majority.

At the moment there's lots of 'investors' who for some bizarre reason, and despite the multiple 'red flags' pointed out by posters, some that may have set out their experience but don't claim to be experts, went and bought and either forgot to sell, and / or bought in after the drop expecting a 'bounce'- one who blamed it not on the apparent failure of the swabbed test, but IG selling days before?

This strangely is a discussion board about UKOG. Something a lot of posters apparently don't want to do, preferring to comment on other posters disparagingly. I don't think t*t for tat spamming is very smart either.

So UKOG are going to test an interval where they belatedly informed the market that there was a smell of oil, and when the casing was set some oil came to surface - and despite the delayed tweeting of the oil in bottle with lots of water it seems to now be the oil from when the casing was set in the Germik, not the Hoya zone with cuttings with oil in them.

Still waiting for an acceptable analysis of the logs! Luckily it's not offshore - the petrophysicts would have been fired by now.

Ian who's 12.

Obviously you don't care, perhaps like most the default is sell on a spike because despite,what's posted the expectation is anything UKOG does will fail.

But some might think that the company seemingly trying to associate oil produced to surface during a casing operation with a completely different zone might be just a bit underhand, especially when that zone was about to be tested and pi were buying on the 'good' news.

They also tweeted the picture of the bottle of oil (again) and some oily water in the mud pit with this caption:-

'38 API (measured by hand held density meter) is recovered from the mud pit after setting the 9 5/8 casing at 289m.'

Yet they set the casing on 18 April, but didn't initially tweet the picture of the bottle of oil until 21 April, when they had drilling ahead and stopped to do the swabbes test, and also tweeted separately:- 'Pinarova-1 encountered oil shows in drill cuttings from 358 to 400 metres drilled depth'.

It now looks like what happened was similar to AME's report about Kezer 'Emulsion came to surface during lowering the 9 5/8” casing to top of Hoya formation', and the bottle of oil had nothing to do the the oil in cuttings in the Hoya.

Not sure what word to use - misleading pi into thinking the swabbed test would be good as the zone had produced the oil in the bottle - note they didn't say where it had come from but tweeted the picture of the bottle with some oil in after the RNS and tweet about swabbing and oil in cuttings.

Are these posters so desperate that they're yet again citing Wytch Farm in comparison to HH. It isn't producing from the same reservoirs and covers a much larger area and because of that has multiple sites. It isn't even in the same basin.

As for the Resan licence and the Basur target UKOG has never mentioned production from the E Sadak field along trend, nearby and producing primarily from the same formation, the Mardin, and described by UKOG as a geological and producing lookalike to the appraisal of Basur - even to the extent of missing the pay (but didn't mention that either, before or since drilling Basur-3). This field went from 25mmbbls and 400bopd in 2021 to 0.5mmbbls and 200bopd in 2022 even with, or perhaps because of, additional wells put into production in the last 2 years - which perhaps reflects the reliability of reserves calculations in Turkey and maybe AME moving to 'SPE standard' reserves.

This obsession with other irrelevant fields is the same distraction that UKOG is using. Hardly mention what happened in the well we're drilling because it's much more positive to 'imagine' a deeper reservoir full of oil that they don't know exists, while testing an interval previously unmentioned because of a smell of oil whilst drilling - what next devining for oil?

.....and the AME quote is from the Kezer well.

That posted before I'd finished and was checking whether they did log the cased hole, and they did. So......

A zone that was logged in the cased hole but presumably didn't analyse as oil pay. This talk of final log interpretation is BS - unless they're going to gat Nutech to CPI and 'find' billions of barrels of unproducible oil, even the field logs would spot a gusher - that's one of the jobs of the wellsite geologist. So what happened to the 'oil pay' analysis of the secondary target and presumably there were no cuttings to mention so what did they smell as they drilled through the primary target - sfa - based on the sudden swerve to 'investigating' a deeper oil and that success of this well would be getting a sample of oil to compare to that in the shotholes.

BIt late but as I posted yesterday:-

'Suspect at best it will be equivocal - going to test - but will they be testing the primary target or will it be the zones where the swabbed test failed to persuade any oil to flow?'

Not even that - looks like they've avoided the expense of casing the well below 300m by testing a previously unmentioned zone of 'smell'. Have a look at the 13/04/23 RNS .Was that the thirdary target, not even in the Hoya but the interval above where AME reported 'Emulsion came to surface during lowering the 9 5/8” casing to top of Hoya formation - ie displaced fluid from the Germik.

Probably a zone that they didn't log as it isn't . So presumably there's no cuttings to mention what did they smell as they drilled through the primary target - sfa.

Why would anyone have 'held shares over the last years' when they don't spend all their lives saying what a great job SS, and thus UKOG have done.

I've never seen ocelot boasting about great trades or wizard - they're far more likely to have been great supporters of a British Company than those that those that see through the BS, and have for years - make money on the P&D's - yes, hold for the results - no.

Anyway I'll leave to your delirious fantasy ramblings, 7 posts in just over an hour. If you think SS has done a great job feeding the frenzy, then admitting there was no oil flow last Tuesday - crashing the SP you're certainly wrong for those that really do support a British Company. Are you're continuing your history of thinking you're right and anyone who disagrees is wrong, and eventually having to close your account to remove your history. Wasn't the SP going to recover because it dropped last Tuesday because they sold a load the Friday before, nothing to do with the lack of oil flow expected by you and others from the swab test in the RNS when the price actually dropped.

But SS / UKOG has been great for traders that sold Monday or even Tuesday morning, and not forgetting those that didn't 'believe' having seen it all before and sold.

But strangely perceptive of you on Tuesday Morning (SP 0.105p) - though you didn't mean it in the way it now seems:-

'RE: The Company has ample funds to cover its share of the planned drilling and testing campaign. 25 Apr 2023 09:44
Once we get confirmation of the swab test results you will never see these prices again.'

'confirmation of the swab test results' cf 'Now for the show on what's down there'

As for 'The board cannot do a placing for the duration of the turkey drill and testing campaign which is a plus' - why not - they've said they're fully funded for things before and then raised again - maybe if things don't look good now would be the time, before they test - 'we need money for an extensive, futile, testing programme like the one at BB'. What would you do - sue them/ complain to the FCA? ring 999?

Tony,

perhaps this will help from the AME web site-

'..........and hopefully, one day soon, take the step of becoming a publicly traded company.'

So no listing, no market, no need to 'inform' the market.

Maybe as ZYX mentioned AME need to agree it, and they may need to inform the Turkish authorities what the plans are re testing....but UKOG RNS'd loads of stuff about what they were going to do in the past in Turkey before the agreement of the T|urkish government was given.

Northfork,

pray tell where I can buy shares in AME? But rarely (ever) has radio silence from UKOG been 'good news'.

Suspect at best it will be equivocal - going to test - but will they be testing the primary target or will it be the zones where the swabbed test failed to persuade any oil to flow?

Ian12 - maybe if UKOG got on and issued a RNS when they've had 2 days to deliberate about what they're going to do next there would be no discussion on this 'discussion board' about it - or do you think it's yours to patrol and decide who should post and what they should post about?

Cardinal - perhaps you're not interested in the likelihood of success or failure and prefer one liners - that's fine, you're not obliged to read anything - but maybe you've noticed that those seemingly blinding you seem to agree that not everything UKOG does is as good as they want you to think - so who's really blinding you?

Ibug,

A clue that there's some oil and the swabbed test suggested it wasn't in fractures in the upper part of the Hoya. What the logs could tell is more precise information as to where the oil is and fracturing - and losses during drilling are another indication of fracturing.

I would presume that given the importance of this well they will run casing and test some layers almost regardless of how good the evidence is.

Maybe they're holding out until they've tested something - just one hit of good, goodish, equivocal or bad news

Maybe there's so much oil pay they're having difficulty finding a 'bigger' word than transformational to put in the RNS?

Maybe not.

Having passed through the primary target last week, reached TD and run the full suite of logs on Saturday and presumably decided to run casing or not based on those logs apparently there's nothing worth RNSing two days later.

Welcome to the world of UKOG - and a lot of AIM companies.

Pboo,

There haven't been 2000 tanker loads of oil - this may be where the eyes are going wrong - seeing double.

Testing and production has produced less than 200,000bbls of oil.

Interim report:- 'As of 29 June 2020, 113,143 bbl in total has been produced from Horse Hill.'

and since then about 70,000bbls has been produced from the Portland production.

If I were generous I'd say 900 tankers.

Fitzy,

My comments are negative relative to what the company has said over the years, yet what has happened has been extremely negative relative to what the company has said over the years.

and I do have an interest in UKOG - but I don't try to mug people saying how great the outlook is for UKOG or the SP will be 'x' - and I don't say don't invest as it's pretty clear that buying and selling at the right time can be lucrative, but holding for the long term / results is in my opinion a poor choice and borne out by actual results vs SP.

But instead of flitting from share to share making inane comments that I suspect any sensible person can see as ramping by someone who has no interest in the company at all I stick to UKOG to comment on.

UKOG is an interesting example of people investing in something they haven't a clue about - but are prepared to hope that time after time that somehow drilling near to unsuccessful, undeveloped wells will result in a different answer. Of course my posting is disruptive in the sense that it disrupts the so far misleading narrative that posters and tweeters like yourself try to project.

We even have DL spouting 'new technology'- that UKOG hasn't deployed anywhere, ever, despite it being a mantra over the years.

Interesting that your last two posts have been the longest in months, most just being one or two lines of generic ramping.

HarryDavid,

Only 15 posts, none except this asking 'that' question and you've asked that question on other boards?

Is that because you've been banned or more likely closed your latest account because you needed your posting history removed? 15

with the BS that posters that give a realistic opinion about a company that has serially failed and never achieved a result anywhere near the claims made are somehow 'green' or 'nimbys' rather than always being eventually more accurate about the outcome of the projects than those that continually predict success.

Fitzy,

'can you think of another reason why these losers spend so much time and effort de ramping a share that they haven’t even bought into'

simple - it isn't derampingand they're not losers - it's being realistic and even then, in my case despite years of being acccused of being a deramper I've rarely, possibly never, posted an opinion that's worse than the outcome - often being far too optimistic. Unless you have access to anybody's trading account and don't understand that even realists know there's plenty out there waiting to be mugged on a P&D you are just making up 'a share that they haven’t even bought into'.

Ocelot,

don't know if you understand averages - if quite a few earn more than many others then there's quite a few that earn less.

So what.

SS has run UKOG for many years - has bought £12,000 worth of shares to head off a SH revolt - and has never reported a profit and spent nearing £100million with a tangible operated asset with a NPV of £0.8mm (2022 Annual Report and Accounts). He has serially moved the company from 'transformational' project to 'transformational' project that weren't and were never likely to be, as each was failing.

My money is that it's diesel for the on site equipment.

The picture was while they were running logs with the crane and logging truck. They were only going to drill to TD and then log as swabbed
testing was a waste of time telling them nothing except that water was being produced from fractures but the oil wasn't.

I would hope that if it is just a fuel delivery they weren't trying to deceive.

But any opinion that the tnker was there to take oil away should be answered before trading commences Tuesday as following the tweet on Saturday if they don't RNS more details of what has happened since the RNS on Wednesday 7:00am Tuesday something very fishy is going on.

Ocelot,

a fantastic asset 'too'? as 'fantastic' as what?

maybe you filter all the posters on Angs that don't exactly see GL as a beacon of honesty so just being polite about another company's prospect is hardly anything to rejoice. Still no mention of the hordes banging on UKOG's door to farm in after the CPR that in fact suggested that some of the inputs RPS agreed to use were speculative and unsupported by ay data (gas rate from a single well, and a flat gas price forecast).

The only relevant gas price is if Loxley is successful enough to be put into production - and in the CPR there are issues that the well will address before that's likely - is the price in 2026 / 2027 and any price forecast beyond that.

Of course companies that may profit from high gas prices are hoping that they won't fall back, there's almost certainly reports out there that predict the opposite - equally based on hope, and equally capapble of being wrong.

We've already seen from ocelot's many posts about prices a year ahead how wrong they were - hopefully a few speculators trying to profit on a difficult situation got burnt though - what the gas price will be 3 to 4 years away can't possibly be predicted with so many possible outcomes of world events between now and then.

So what will Tuesday bring. Did they TD during market hours Friday but not RNS, leaving it to a more positive tweet about logging being completed as they wouldn't be expected to mention if there were oil shows.

If there weren't any oil shows in the drill below 400m through the primary target at least they might be able to RNS about testing 'possible' oil pay in the already tested section that didn't flow any oil.

Why did they drill to 600m? Desperation in the hope of a deeper oil show or were there continuous oil shows and they didn't want to stop?

The 'somebody' knows something gambit

Ocelot has this dream that investors that understand O&G E&P will replace the gamblers and traders because of the quality of UKOG's portfolio.

The problem is for that to work UKOG need a quality portfolio whereas the flitting (very slowly) from project to project before the reality of the how bad the last one is is fully understood is looking more and more desperate.

Already HH is returning to the fore before Pinarova's finished, and there's always another trade body to join and RNS when things are really flagging.

Until they put a stake through the heart of Pinarova it can still suck money out of the unwary caught on a spike as traders play chicken as to when the next RNS will arrive and what it says.

Of course maybe the primary target is oil filled and they've spent the last day phoning mates and buying shares rather than having the courtesy to tell their owners?