Member Info for Penguins

Adrian,

looking silly, no.

Predicted that there would be oil shows, expected a 'pump' and even Monday there could be a dump . Next week maybe the well will flow hundreds of barrels a day of oil that based on Kezer is unlikely - but there's tens of posters that are making claims that have absolutely no factual basis about how good it will be - UKOG and AME are remarkably silent about what they expect, merely, like me' giving (different) accounts of the results of the Kezer well, hoping the oil seeping into a shothole - then 2 more drilled close by - has anything to do with it (working hypothesis), hoping that the amplitude anomolies are better quality reservoir and hoping that they've got oil in, and probably hoping the Kezer flows weren't typical - but at least UKOG got their wish come true of an oil show - just like Kezer which was drilled about 400m away.

Maybe you don't understand but most of what I've posted is straight out of RNS or annual reports, hardly even an opinion, whereas most of what others have posted is either irrelevant or made up or even like the statistic about 2021 discoveries pretty negative.

There are no certainties until the well is fully drilled, cased and tested - though if they get any flow at all I suspect they'll say it's 'production' testing - remember the BB production string being installed and then having to be pulled out again? The risk is if it's barely commercial going forward (once the well is drilled etc. it's a sunk cost so doesn't get taken into any NPV or RRR calculation) - but deciding to drill another well will require even a cheap wells cost to be taken into account and it should be a risked NPV. Perhaps that the real reason that no more wells have been drilled - although HH-1 is commercial if the cost of a well was taken into account it isn't worth doing - current NPV for HH-1 is £0.8mm!

We're not there yet - maybe Monday will be jittery without a test RNS.

One very strange statement in the AME 2022 annual report 'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners and if successful would be a first in the region.'

So are UKOG carrying AME for the drilling of Pinarova - they shouldn't be. They couldn't have been so desperate to drill could they, but AME weren't keen (perhaps because they're not a publicly listed company and don't need to waste money for 'news'. I'd be surprised - except this is UKOG.

Hi Adrian,

no, not up to London, detest the Just Stop Oil tactics and delusional aims (a colleague once said cut off the oil for a few days and we'd be eating each other) - at least I'm not on this board claiming I'm someone I'm not.

and btw the valuation of £0.80mm for HH-1 includes:-'any anticipated savings' - from the 2022 annual report.

'The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £0.8 million and therefore determined that HH-1 should be impaired by £2.9 million. The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed. Costs were based on current costs less any anticipated savings.'

At least you've got lots of friends today to make mischief with.

MM,

The telling statistic at the end of that excerpt was this:- 'With 34 more discoveries in 2021 alone, we added another 71 million barrels to our current reserve,'

That's an average of just over 2 mmbbls per discovery. 43.375% of that level of find might nearly double UKOG's reserves if you allowed UKOG to include the CPR'd 2C resources at HH calculated in 2018

Most discoveries in Turkey are small, very low production wells that decline fast that may be commercial as the wells are cheap to drill.

Pinarova was drilled in 2018, the seismic data UKOG showed with the amplitude anomalies that might indicate good reservoir that might have oil in it dates from 1988.

If Pinarova was going to be so great why has it only emerged this year as a possible target after remapping Basur (twice).

It looks more like a last throw of the dice hoping for two 6's turning up - to prove up resources or oil flow rates neither UKOG nor AME were prepared to put into the public domain - though predictions, and the risk of those predictions being right, must have been made.

Still OIL SHOWS.

There's also much being made of the ex-flagship HH site where HH-1 is now valued (NPV) by the board at £0.80mm - and that includes any expected future changes - presumably including the HH-2z conversion. The recent spate of several tankers over two days seems to have been to empty tanks while work was being done on site .

Anyway bust morning ahead - have fun while the hope hasn't been dasned on the shores of reality.

Ocelot,

'There is no doubt UKOG have oil now. Whatever the trolls might say'.

There's quite a gap between oil shows and commercial flow rates. it's still unknown whether it will flow, then whether it's going to be too much water with oil in it (let's hope the water / oil proportions in the bottle aren't representative), then whether it will be commercial if it flows, and finally, if it's commercial how commercial.

As there as many suggesting how good Pinarova will be what flow rate is expected from Pinarova given UKOG's share of production is 43.75% with 50% of costs (Turkish government get 12.5% of oil produced) just to compare with any flow rates RNS'd (as neither UKOG or AME have made any predictions).

Anyone?

Morefondle,

You posted - 'What about all those people who I see walking into the high street bookmakers?'

interesting point - but some gamblers follow form and do lots of research and can spot those with poor results - UKOG P&Ds are like a fixed football match - it isn't representative of form, and it doesn't mean that they're going to win the next match - but if you can spot its going to happen - bingo.

UKOG is a gamble and anyone who has held through to results because of posters claiming how great UKOG's projects are and not sold whenever the SP has risen on those claims will have lost money.

Not only the failures but the incessant placings to fund them has been a factor - often timed during, and effectively ending 'pumps'.

The last raise was at 0.875p but the SP closed at 0.11p on Friday 9 September after a few days of 'pumping'. By 08:10 of the Monday morning 7am placing announcement on 12 September 2022 the mid price was 0.09p.

As for online casinos - at least there aren't loads of people suggesting you can't lose at them.

Redhead,

21 billion shares so far, so £420mm at 2p based on appraising a well with an oil show and, only according to UKOG (not AME), flowed fluid with a 'strong' oil cut on test - so already tested - that's Kezer-1, a well that 7 months ago wasn't worth mentioning when Basur-4 was still the next best thing - 'The Company will then focus firmly upon the delivery of a new Basur appraisal well'.

This from a post (of mine) on November 30 - well before Pinarova was mentioned and there was no news forthcoming about the results of the phase 2 seismic which was meant to firm up either Basur-4 or a lead to the south of Basur:-

'If the preliminaey results had confirmed the phase 1 'leads' interpretation would we have heard by now?...... ......Perhaps they're scratching around for some sort of lead justified by the oil seep. The amount of attention they gave the oil seep initially seemed suspicious as there's already pretty good evidence that oil generation has taken place in the licence with shows and small amounts tested.
Was 'bigging up' the seep a backup if the leads failed to mature into targets?'

seems it was.

HH1AN2,

Did uou see that the NPV of HH-1 dropped to £0.8mm - no wonder UKOG are happy to farm out the next drill,

mean anything?

There is so much misinformation. Remember this:-

'The presence of movable oil within Pinarova is indicated by results of the 2018 Kezer-1 shallow geothermal well, located near the apex of the Pinarova geological feature. Kezer-1 reported strong oil shows throughout the Hoya and flowed heavily oil-cut fluids to surface'

Well we've got 'oil shows', same as a well 400 metres away.

What's next - 'heavily oil-cut fluids' Monday morning - and a classic UKOG - now for the next layer where the anomaly might indicate oil or just more fracturing just to keep the punters on a lead.

Not sure where some of the posters information about how great Pinarova is going to be is from - most likely a fertile imagination as neither UKOG nor AME have given any idea of expectations, not even OIP..

Looks like some missed out on the early rise.

Northfork,

I struggle with the logic that being 'negative' about something that is negative is somehow wrong. Why should I have been positive about HH, BB or Basur if I didn't think any of them were likely to be as successful as UKOG were RNSing.

UKOG haven't actually said anything particularly positive about Pinarova except it's cheap and appraising a well that had shows and flowed oily fluid - and by the way there was oil in a shothole that might be associated (working hypothesis) with the prospect.

What would be wrong - and I suspect many here are guilty of it - is claiming the results - for example of Pinarova - are going to be transformational when the poster has probably no intention of holding for those results because they don't believe they will be transformational. What's worse is those posters then mocking those that held and got caught out.

The question is why are you well under water - there's been a poster today boasting about making £6,000 profit 'since 2022' - that hasn't happened by holding through the P&D's. It's every man for himself on this board - don't believe that those ramping are your mates - they want everyone to hold until they sell and go on to the next P&D. Even if you sell at a loss if you're sure the SP will drop later you could rebuild your average - not advice just an observation.

Just because I think the projects aren't very good (because I research as much as possible) doesn't mean I'm excluded from the trading strategy of the rampers - which is effectively based on the same theory that the SP will tank after rising basically because the projects aren't very good.

Now near the business end of Pinarova. Will it be like UKOG hope (whatever that is - any ideas) or the transformational brigade. Based on what UKOG and AME have said it seems they're trying to dampen expectations.

Prancing,

Just to be clear. You dont think shareholders should vote in favour of the farm out??

If I got to vote of course I'm in favour - I see HH-3 as high risk, but if it weren't I'd vote against.

the HHDL shareholders are UKOG, Alba and Doriemus. One of the conditions of the PPP farm in is it's agreed by HHDL.

So the shareholders of UKOG who have been kept in the dark for years about HH with no CPR since 2018 won't get a vote.

I suppose, like information about Pinarova and Basur, the reason they haven't CPR'd HH is because it's so good they don't want competitors to know - so surely they should have prioritised drilling at HH rather than Turkey.

I'm sure you didn't agree when I've been negative before results are known - as have many saying how wrong my opinions have been - for instance that the Kimmeridge was nothing like as good as posters thought (or UKOG claimed) at both HH and BB. That the Portland was likely to decline. That Basur had the risk of failure and poor flow rates .....and gave reasons why for all these.

Struggling with what I post - I'm not surprised.

As for Pinarova - maybe they haven't restarted drilling yet, but remember what happened at Kezer located just 400metres away from Pinarova that also penetrated the strong amplitude anomaly - according to UKOG (not AME) - after oil shows in the Hoya it flowed fluid on test with an oil cut from the Hoya.

AME's version was very different - 'Oil shows were also observed at the Germik base limestone interval during drilling a nearby geothermal well (Kezer-1) in 2019. Emulsion came to surface during lowering the 9 5/8” casing to top of Hoya formation.'

The Germik is the formation above the Hoya so the shows and probably the emulsion (oil and water) came from the Germik.

Either way I suspect UKOG would be shocked if they don't get an oil show - what happens next is what's important though - how many will buy or how many will sell knowing that an oil show is not a guarantee of a commercial oil flow - or any oil flow at all.

I just hope UKOG don't take advantage of a higher SP.........again.

Prancing(?)

Not guesswork, opinion like everyone on this board.

Over the years there have been many posts full of things posters claim 'will happen' things like 'success' or massive rises in production or share price - that haven't happened.

In O&G exploration and production nothing is guaranteed, but some outcomes are more likely than others. Hence I use suspect, could, etc - just like UKOG with their 'expectation' of 'potential transformational' outcomes.

If anyone posts something 'will' happen they might be lucky - but it's more likely because they don't understand the uncertainties.

So having to pay for appraisal of something that UKOG and HHDL shareholders should have a very good understanding of is a negative - seems you agree.

given who's giving 'advice' I'd worry a lot.

Prancing(?)

Following the 3D they will have a better idea of the structure - and perhaps, like Basur-3 2D, it will be very different than the current mapping. The current mapping followed the HH-2z well results - which, like they hope HH-3 will be, was meant to be updip from HH-1 but was in fact down dip.

Luckily they can choose to not drill HH-3 and walk with 7% of the licence if the structural high disappeared.

If the minority shareholders agree to the deal does it mean they're happy to be diluted because of the high risk of further drilling having a similar outcome to HH-1, or even HH-2/z?

I suspect there's reasons for DL to want back in - whatever they might be it probably has little to do with a successful outcome of HH-3 and plenty to do with the intervening RNS PPP can release.

MM,

PPP are paying 33% for 25% WI and 18.75% net revenue in the Whistler Straits 5H well licence.

'Nobel is paying 33.33% of the cost to drill and complete this joint development well connected to the storage tanks for a net 25% working interest (18.75% net revenue interest)'

So less than 20% of 'Expected initial production rates ranging from 100 to 400 barrels of oil per day' - from RNS 16/03/23. Initial.

Not sure with all the other committments they won't have to raise to fund the farm in. I wonder if the HHDL board have approved the deal yet. Not sure what the pass mark might be if the other shareholders don't agree.

As for 'Now we have thousands of barrels of #oil storage near the well head. Ready for the first flows from the well. ?'

Anyone else remember the thousands of barrels of storage being installed at HH when HH-2z was about to be flowed - and UKOG knew there was a problem with water - it's why they sstopped the horizontal short (they claimed at the time they had enough good hole) - they just didn't mention they'd encountered water filled fractures until 23/12/2019 when they had to because they flowed the well.

It's lucky that DL is so honest when it comes to tweeting - you can be sure the tanks are there at least.

MM,

Depends what you mean by good news - will an oil show really be good news - P&D maybe but not really good news?

If there's a short test that flows fluid with a strong oil cut is that definitely good news - again a second P&D - traders delight.

Will waiting to properly test the well - probably with temporary kit that is heralded as 'production' good news - more good news for traders still banging on about 10p.

Assuming they decide to install permanent production kit what sustainable flow rate is the real good news, when will anyone know - UKOG has avooided mentioning HH, now dire, flow rates since 2020 initial rates. Even with the official figures tweeters and posters still try to suggest every now and then production has vastly improved when it hasn't.

Then a slow slide as reality bites. If it gets that far quite possible Pinarova production will be 50bopd or less and declining - and UKOG only 50%.

As pboo posts - know when to get out - pretty obviously not planning, no doubt like every poster that's recently joined and trying to mislead about Pinarova and even Horse Hill, to hang around for possible bad news.

The number of times I've put this at the end of a post during a rapid rise in the SP

Maybe this time, maybe this time.

I'll modify my previous reply - but as ocelot doesn't read it he will continue to post rubbish.

'....and gathering data for potentially game changing exploration play which will be executed in 2023' is describing data gathering in 2022, and was for the possible gas play in the Bartin licence. Not drilled in 2023 - 'be executed' in 2023.

Also mentioned in the annual report is the move to explore / produce more gas:- 'In the medium-term AME will be increasing its investment in gas prone opportunities as part of a sustainable product mix strategy.'

The Pinarova well does not represent a potentially 'game changing' play but the onshore extension into the Bartin licence of the offshore gas discovery in the Black Sea, if correct, would be game changing. Someone linked an article to a newspaper earlier about the offshore gas field.

This from the Bartin licence review in AME's annual report:-

'With its 1 TCM (35.3 TCF) gas reserve size, Sakarya field is the largest gas discovery in the country. This discovery proves significant volumes of natural gas generation from the source rocks and could certainly be transformational for both offshore and onshore extensions of the similar gas plays in the region'

That sounds game changing, haven't seen transformational used to describe the Pinarova well by AME, even UKOG removed a reference to Turkey that mentioned transformational from their 2022 annual report.

MurreyMint,

It's good they are fully funded for Pinarova, something UKOG often claim - being cheap it should be true this time. The question is have they got the funds for much else? Work at HH doesn't come cheap, planning to reconfigure HH-2z, and of course salaries and consultants fees. Though it has been only 7 months since the last raise UKOG may be wary of leaving it until after Pinarova has been tested, a double whammy as if it's a failure there will be no further drilling likely until 2024 to raise the SP but there are still activities that will need funding - they certainly jumped in soon after Basur-3 commenced drilling.

AME have plans to acquire 2D and 3D this year and if UKOG don't farm out Loxley or don't get a significant carry there's 3D at Loxley. Is the conversion of HH-2z 'sexy' enough for a P&D / raise opportunity with UKOG's expectation that it will save £250,000 a year of water disposal costs.

MM,

If UKOG are relying on 'stacked' anomalies the section in the Pinarova slides shows the well only passing through the low frequency anomaly which the Near Top Hoya event interpretation passes through. Maybe they expect that to represents stacked reservoirs. The proposed TD at 550m is above the deeper lower amplitude anomaly which the Kezer well did penetrate.

However zooming in on the sweetness display it has (blurred) prognosed depths on the Pinarova well and the Near Top Hoya event is a lot deeper than what appears to be the Top Hoya well pick at ca 300m. So despite the event identification as 'near' it isn't and it looks like the amplitude anomaly is bracketed between ca400m and ca480m - so about 100m into the Hoya - should have zoomed in to read the depths before now as I thought that this anomaly would be soon after recommencing drilling based on the horizon name.

Apologies if I've mislead, looks like those that thought it would be a while before reaching the anomaly were right - of course if the anomalies aren't indicative of where any oil might be all bets are off and a show / test could still be soon after recommencing drilling.

We'll see soon enough.

MurreyMint(?)

Apologies I made a mistake - I meant to say 'but not when the drilling would resume' - what they are apparently 'on schedule' for.

What they actually RNS'd:-

'Drilling resumes on schedule in the next few days'

But as UKOG haven't given a schedule apart from the time to drill to the first casing point (8-10 days) which would have meant 15th to 17th April. I don't know that they are still way ahead of schedule - after all some posters claimed they would TD on Monday - others thought they'd start drilling over the weekend. Perhaps there was a delay because the casing wasn't on site as they got to 287m so fast, then maybe they've spent longer modifying the site.

PS I'm not a driller - but I can tell when posters know what they're posting about......

MurreyMint(?)

So that's for the start of drilling not a schedule of drill progress - said 8-10 days to drill to casing point which was wrong (as I said days ahead) - but not when the casing would be set - what they are apparently 'on schedule' for.

MJF etc

Erm,

Drilling in next weeks?

there won't be any drilling at Horse Hill until PPP have raised some cash to shoot 3D, having permitted it, process, interpret produce a map and decide it's worth drilling - probably next year - which PPP will probably have to fund raise to pay for.

Current work may be in preparation for repurposing HH-2z which has been about to happen for a long time - or might not be.

MM

UKOG RNS - don't you just love them.

Boasts about restart of drilling being 'on schedule' yet UKOG haven't given a schedule for pi to compare drilling progress with - so a random claim they're on schedule is meaningless - though on Thursday they were several days ahead, and of course they originally gave Q1 as the start date - which they missed.

Can't remember which well it was (probably HH-1 testing) but they declared it exceeded expectations - not having given any expectations previously.

Having given no expectations about Pinarova fully expect similar BS to come.

Northfork

My comment did include the year - but I accept you missed it.

But your post isn't proof that these supposed paid posters were genuine, it shows you believed it, and maybe others said they believed it - an entirely different thing.

ZYX,

According to UKOG (RNS 1/3/2023) the 'prospect' is from 300 to 645metres - the 300m being the top of the Hoya Formation.

If that's accurate - and presumably they have the Top Hoya depth in the nearby Kezer well - then as the first and greatest anomaly is coincident with the Top Hoya pick on the seismic it won't be long before they reach that anomaly at ca 300m with the casing set at 287m.

The AME version in their annual report of what happened at Kezer was that the show was in the Germik '.....Oil shows were also observed at the Germik base limestone interval......' - which is the formation above the Hoya - and '.....Emulsion came to surface during lowering the 9 5/8” casing to top of Hoya formation....' but no mention of the flow test or shows in the Hoya.

What they expect to be different, and why, to the Kezer well which according to UKOG's version flowed on test fluid with a heavy oil cut UKOG hasn't said.

However whatever the oil cut (small or heavy) is in the reservoir it will almost certainly result in an oil show. There is a deeper anomaly but it isn't as strong as that at the top.