Member Info for Penguins

Sting,

When has a final answer been in the middle ground?

Sting,

I'm fascinated that you and Wizard are still banging the drum for the Kimmeridge, so I thought I'd refresh my memory (and maybe yours) with a rough timeline for the Kimmeridge.

BB was drilled in 2017, testing of multiple layers took place but no KL flowed a significant amount - the permission to retain the site will run out in March 2024 - will UKOG ask to extend it again or not, and if they do will permission to retain it be given for a fifth time.

In July 2018 the extended EWT of HH-1 commenced and both Portland and Kimmeridge were subject to extensive testing.

At the start of 2019 UKOG planned to sidetrack a horizontal from HH-1 into the Kimmeridge (Jan RNS)

In June 2019 UKOG had a Kimmeridge report done by RPS, the EWT data would have been available preparing the report. This was kept completely secret until it was mentioned in a footnote to the 2020 Annual Report. This assigned 2C resources of 1.6mmbbls gross to the Kimmeridge (page 22:- 6. RPS Jun 2019). Despite this report being available UKOG were still quoting the Nutech and Schlumberger OIP figures for the whole licence of ca 10 billion barrels in the 2019 Annual Report published 9 months later in March 2020.

In the June 2019 Interim Report UKOG stated they planned to drill and log the Kimmeridge in HH-2 before drilling the Portland horizontal (HH-2z).

This Interim Report was probably the last mention of HH-1z.

In October while drilling HH-2 UKOG didn't deepen the hole through the Kimmeridge as expected.

In the June 2019 Interim Report the deepening of HH-2 was supposed to aid the orientation of HH-1z. It seems the desire to do further work on the Kimmeridge might have cooled after the RPS report

Testing of the Kimmeridge continued during the drilling finally being stopped in early 2020 when UKOG wanted to perform Portland interference testing between HH-1 and HH-2z. The initial flow rates quoted after a shut in were good but suggested a high decline rate.

HH-1z was not sidetracked.

In the Loxley inquiry SS stated the Probability of Success for the Kimmeridge there was quoted as 30 to 40%.

The latest figure for Portland production was nearly 56bopd plus nearly 36bwpd (Jan 2023) and the NPV was quoted in the 2022 Annual Report as £0.8mm yet there appears to be no move to re-enter the Kimmeridge section in the well and produce it. No water was ever mentioned and it would save HH-2z conversion cost.

I'm sure that UKOG / PPP might deepen a new Portland well through the Kimmeridge to test it and see if an updip location might have reasonable production - though I was surprised to see in your DL quote:- 'Then it’s HH-3. And I’m going to hopefully drill that as well' - hopefully? I have said the new 3D could destroy the updip closure intended to be the target of HH-3 as it isn't controlled by seismic, perhaps PPP think the same?

Ocelot,

Maybe it hasn't been drilled for oil but Kezer was drilled for geothermal and was tested and according to UKOG the Hoya was tested and flowed fluid with a heavy oil cut - and also had oil shows in the Hoya. 11 January 2023 RNS:-

'The presence of movable oil within Pinarova is indicated by results of the 2018 Kezer-1 shallow geothermal well, located near the apex of the Pinarova geological feature. Kezer-1 reported strong oil shows throughout the Hoya and flowed heavily oil-cut fluids to surface on a short open-hole geothermal test'

It's quite possible the Hoya has been drilled through multiple times - but not as a target for oil. But UKOG haven't mentioned the Kezer well only 400 metres away in the last 6 Pinarova RNS - whilst managing to mentioning the shortholes with oil in them in every RNS..

In the same RNS UKOG also put this:- 'Pinarova-1 will, therefore, be designed to test if light oil is present in commercially viable saturations and quantities within the Hoya.....'

UKOG seem to expect that there will be significant water produced with any oil.

JR90,

you do understand how it works - if you can't sell they don't want your shares.

I can buy 10,000,000 but keep getting no price for selling 4,000,000 - so nobody is loading up at these prices

Billy,

of course we'll see, maybe the test will be clear cut - but surely the idea of a flow test is to answer the question what is there, how much is there and/or how quickly it flows, and where it is in the well.

Ibug,

unfortunately UKOG's idea of near the top of the Hoya is more than 100m into it. If you enlarge and s***** at the presentation sweetness section the prognosed depths in the Pinrova well can be seen.

So actual Top Hoya seems to be about 300m if they stopped drilling just above it and coincides with the red horizon, but the top of the anomaly is listed as 400m - and that's above the Near Top Hoya yellow horizonc - although taking the width of the amplitude anomaly as being significant is strange as the density interface causing the reflection on the amplitude section is probably situated at the yellow event.

Whatever, unless the depth conversion is wrong - which is unlikely as the Kezer well site is only 400m away - they haven't drilled through the strong amplitude anomaly having stopped drilling at 400m.

Although if the higher porosity zone is from 400 metres, which I doubt, they may just have 'tagged' it.

Will a swabbed test over a 100m interval tell UKOG where any fluids are coming from - assuming they initiate flow.

Could be more questions than answers following the testing - I'm sure UKOG will be happy with that.

Alan,

You posted:-

'Everyone knows every share is an IF until achieved.'

&

'You use the word if a lot penguin. So IF this hits, how stupid are you going to feel after filling the board with your negativity'

So everyone knows it's an 'IF' - but looking at the posting here there's a lot of ignorance (or more likely avoiding mentioning) of what the 'ifs' are.

Lot's of new posters making ridiculous claims about what in the future 'will' happen based on oil shows that were predicted in January as the main driver for UKOG to drill the well and would initiate a pump.

No one seems to have remembered this from the January RNS:- 'Pinarova-1 will, therefore, be designed to test if light oil is present in commercially viable saturations and quantities within the Hoya and, if successful, will be completed as a pumped oil production' - 'in commercially viable saturations' - ie what the oil cut is.

Alan,

Not as stupid as those that keep claiming success will happen if it doesn't - but of course most will have sold on any sign of weakness.

It's exploration and the operator and partner also say 'if'.

Are you saying success for $Billions is certain like Mr 2p / 5p Trollhunter?

JR90,

Income stream what from, 60 bopd at HH?

Any ideas for bopd from a shallow fractured formation that seems to be a target for geothermal in the area? No information from UKOG or AME. The much deeper,fractured carbonate struggles to maintain initial production levels for a few months

Only if all those rampers that persuaded people to buy when they were about to sell at over 8p in 2017 will cough up - freeasabird first - and also cough up to all those they persuaded to buy and not sell on the many P&Ds.

Any fool could see this was about to happen. If you don't DYOR you shouldn't be here - which probably accounts for 95% of posters judging by the nonsense posted.

JR90,

How much will interest wane if the uppermost part of the Hoya - you know oil is found above the water leg - tests, like Kezer, fluid with a heavy oil cut.

If the RNS is all about hundreds of bbls of oil with a bit of water whoopee. If it's more about drilling ahead to the amplitude anomaly - watch out.

JR90,

The TR1 was for an increase in SH on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised to see another soon with them selling Friday to cover closed long bets.

JR90,
You posted that no placing confirmed because UKOG has said it is fully funded.

15 June 2018 raised £5.5mm

RNS 2 July 2018 - raised £5mm.
'Together with the funds raised in June, the Company has now secured £10.5 million of investment during the last month, which given UKOG's current plans, mean that it has sufficient working capital for the next 18 months'

4 July 2018 raised £2mm

UKOG often claims costs are covered and then raises on SP rises. The June / July 2018 rise accompanied by placings was ...........during tthe run up to the HH-1 ewt.

They raised last year during mini rises, twice - caught a few traders out with the second raise.

Will SS see this rise as an opportunity to raise to cover future costs should Pinarova fail?

Fully funded for Pinarova - but what else? There's salaries to pay, HH-2z conversion, consultants, Loxley and Portland plannign, AME cash calls for technical and licence management work.

A glutton is always hungry.

Jack,

the uptrend is only sustainable as long as there's no bad news. UKOG have form for issuing equivocal, partial or delayed 'news' though. So far an expected oil show because of the nearby well (400m away) which then flowed fluid with a strong oil cut. Let's hope the next RNS is better news than that.

Beware of posters like JR90, unexplored - the licence is peppered with wells - including the Kezer well just 400m away at the culmination of the structure which flowed the Hoya in a test to see if it was suitable for geothermal, it wasn't - were the flow rates too low.

Maybe they'll be lucky - maybe not, but there's a lot of made up stuff about.

TH2,

'$Billion asset'?????? - based on what, an oil show, an empty tank - you should be reported for attempted mugging in plain sight.

Neither UKOG nor AME have released any volumetrics at all - leaving it to the fevered imagination of psters like yourself.

The tank was empty yesterday (or was it Saturday?), why no news.

Everything is so good the rampers have been busy telling each other how great Pinarova is every few minutes. They'll be much happier on telegram with DL feeding them vague positives.

Adrian's been extra busy 139 posts last time I looked in 2 days, a lot replying to his alta ego Richard874 - when they've both been removed the posting this weekend will look strange with over 300 posts remove.

I wonder if there will be a RNS tomorrow morning?

No - perhaps they read up on it, there's a theme here, repeat the headlines avoid any details or research, and if anyone is doing that tell everyone to filter them.

PPP are paying 33% for 25% WI and 18.75% net revenue in the Whistler Straits 5H well licence.

So less than 20% of 'Expected initial production rates ranging from 100 to 400 barrels of oil per day' - from PPP RNS 16/03/23 - and that's Initial rates.

Even if, in production, it achieves the upper end of the expected flow rates not sure with all the other committments PPP won't have to raise to fund the HH farm in.

Not sure that DL will really be getting ready to drill HH-3 yet, may be getting ready to do a raise to pay for the seismic first.

Dilara,

Shaikin is in an equivalent formation to Basur-Resan and E Sadak but in geologic and production terms very different. E Sadak has many producing wells out of the 14 drilled with some sidetracked after missing the reservoir - however production of the field was stated as 250bopd and gross recoverable reserves as 0.5mmbbls in the 2022 Annual Report. UKOG has stated that Basur-Resan was a lookalike to the E Sadak field although Basur-3 was a failure and there are no production wells in the joint licence.

The Pinarova well is targeting a much shallower formation and whilst UKOG seem to have forgotten to mention it in the recent RNS the well is being drilled only 400 metres from a well that tested the culmination of the structure.

It's unlikely they missed a huge oil field while testing the well in the target formation - albiet for geothermal purposes - UKOG stated in their 2022 Annual Report that it 'was reported to have 'flowed heavily oil-cut fluids to surface'.

Ocelot,

It's only your opinion that this statement in AME's 202 Annual Report is about Pinarova:- '"... potentially game changing exploration play which will be executed in 2023". You are assuming something that is not anywhere stated.

Reading the following paragraph i the Chairman's Report if Pinarova was a game changer AME don't sound that excited:-n

'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners and if successful would be a first in the region' - Cheap and quick - and they probably mean it will be the first success in the Hoya in the region - not a new play.

But AME do have an onshore exploration block, Birkin, on the margins of the Black Sea landward of the gas discovery in the Black Sea where they hope the play will extend onshore into their block, this from the Birkin Licence description:-

'In 2020, the Sakarya gas field is discovery by the Tuna-1 well which is 100km North of SASB (South Akçakoca Sub-Basin), and the field has been developed with drilling additional wells since then. With its 1 TCM (35.3 TCF) gas reserve size, Sakarya field is the largest gas discovery in the country. This discovery proves significant volumes of natural gas generation from the source rocks and could certainly be transformational for both offshore and onshore extensions of the similar gas plays in the region.'

The extension of similar gas plays onshore could be 'transformational' - sounds much more like a 'potentially game changing exploration play' than the 'quick and cheap' Pinarova well that they claim is carried by UKOG - maybe why UKOG have their geologist on site?

Adrian,

OK so you read the daily mail - absolutely no surprises so far. The herd already know - perhaps it will persuade a few more to invest - let's hope they don't end up disappointed.

MM - are you getting desperate?

Perhaps you should have added something about Kezer-1 as UKOG seem to want everyone to forget about it preferring to mention the shotholes with oil in - over there - or the amplitudes that might be because of improved reservoir quality and UKOG hope this improved reservoir might have oil in it. They've not mentioned Kezer in any recent Pinarova RNS.

Just in case here's the excerpt from the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts, perhaps you'd like to add it to your cut n paste:

'....on closer examination of seismic and well data, UKOG and its partner Aladdin Middle East (AME) saw that the culmination of the Pinarova structure, which extends over an area of around 9 km² within Eocene Hoya group limestones, 300-645m below surface, had been penetrated by the 2018 Kezer-1 geothermal borehole. This well, whilst being considered to unsuitable for geothermal energy, had strong oil shows within the Hoya and is reported to have flowed heavily oil-cut fluids to surface on a short open-hole geothermal test.'

Perhaps this paragraph is a bit confusing so I've missed out a bit of the first sentence which makes something very clear:-

'UKOG and its partner Aladdin Middle East (AME) saw that the culmination of the Pinarova structure had been penetrated by the 2018 Kezer-1 geothermal borehole.'

Well that's a surprise. Fancy that, the culmination, not just somewhere within the structure not even down dip, has already been penetrated by a well only 400 metres away from Pinarova that 'was reported' (surely they should have established exactly what happened - AME have a different version) to have 'flowed heavily oil-cut fluids to surface'.

Maybe that's why Kezer is no longer mentioned in the latest RNS that's feeding the frenzy - though I doubt it would make any difference - success is not what the current pump is about - more likely a game of who sells first.

It's strange that AME reported that their partner (UKOG) was carrying them for the cost of the well - in the Annual Report UKOG said this about the funding:-

'The Company has ample funds to cover its share of the $0.4 million dry hole to $0.63 million drilled, tested and completed as a pumped oil producer drilling campaign costs'

What if UKOG's share is 100% because they're sole risking the well? The bigger question, if that was true, is why the area experts AME didn't want to drill it - their version of the Kezer-1 well results is nothing like as positive as UKOG's and they're planning more seismic in the licence but not over Pinarova - over Mardin Leads (same target as Basur) in the Siirt area.

As I posted there's no certainty as you over the years will have seen in the claims made by UKOG vs the results.

What was your greatest lie / guess - pretty sure when you were here and on twitter as freeasabird there were much worse but you managed to get both accounts stopped but recently (apart from personal attacks) was it tweeting that based on your 'knowledge' of tankers leaving HH average production was 108bopd in December 2021 / January 2022 based on the linear pump being worked on earlier in 2021 which would supposedly improve flow - with no explanation why changing the pump would make a difference. In fact it was about 60bopd.

There's opinions based on facts (what you think are guesses)but there's posters making wild claims based on hope rather then even guesswork. I haven't seen any justification based on either company's reports and RNS to suppose Pinarova will be any different from Kezer. As this test isn't across the Hoya uppermost amplitude anomaly there's plenty of scope for keeping 'investors' dangling waiting firstly for the next oil show announcement once drilling ahead recommences and then another test - of course if the Hoya is fractured and there's vertical connectivity if the uppermost test isn't very good the chances are the next won't be either. It's a pity they want fracturing for reservoir quaity, but don't want too much.

Next week will be fun.