Member Info for Penguins

I presume MJFMSG was being sarcastic?

If not I hope he's going to be buying billions of shares to get the mcap up to between £420 million and £1.68billion (2p and 8p a share) based on an unknown and unproved resources in Turkey. questionable resources at Loxley and zero reserves but resources calculated in 2018 for HH - all being proved up.

UKOG seem to have an aversion of inspection of their properties with significant and / or new data eg - Basur, HH - preferring to CPR Loxle that hasn't had any new data (seismic. wells) this century - and probably a decade before that. Just a new map that has poor control (hence new 3D required) and a reinterpretation of the Alfold well that 'found' some evidence of a gas column that could coincides with Godley Bridge's but also a significant facies change in the Alfold well.

But hey resources........

Keep to Loxley, HH, Saltfleetby/Angus.

Though Angus is a good example of the result of sell on news. Maybe ocelot posted on the Angus board about Angus squandering their new found wealth on a Loxley farm in.

As for HH it's not possible to accurately find out what the difference is between oil revenue and cost of sales as there has also been Horndean production and expenses included most years, but including Horndean from the annual reports for 2019 onwards the 'profit' (sales minus cost of sales) from Horndean and HH is less than £1.5mm. Pretty pathetic compared to what UKOG have paid for equity in HH which was about £300,000 per percent, let alone the cost of drilling 2 wells. The PPP deal looks good as long as HH-3 is as bad as HH-1. If a NPV valuation prior to drilling HH-1 had been done (or one done even in 2018) with what is now known it wouldn't have been drilled.

I see the HH ramping crew are busy trying to drum up excitement for HH-2z conversion which is planned for 'soon'. Emptying all the tanks of crude and leaving a trailer or two for storage of oil and produced water was very exciting, can't wait for the CTU to arrive to remove / replace what was left in HH-2z ready for testing water injection. Let's hope like all UKOG activities it goes well.

More importantly what's happening at Pinarova?

Let's hope they've spent 5 days getting casing sorted and they're about to drill ahead rather than some posters suggestion on Friday that they could reach TD yesterday - until it was pointed out they were going to stop to test on good shows.

Northfork,

'Never made a post on 7th march. Never mentioned Ms Finch and other.'

Try this, about half way down........

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/northfork/?page=4

'northfork
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 1,012
Price: 0.101
No Opinion
RE: One of the biggest, worldwide con tricks and we all are paying for it 07 Mar 2022 18:18
Gideon. Is it possible some of the Naysayers, Trolls on this and other similar sites, could have been paid from Moscow. Don`t forget a couple of posters on this and ARB, admitted to being paid. Heh Upp, MS Finch?'

Northfork,

Calling another poster 'idiot' when you're the one with a 1.44p average is a bit rich, nor sure you understand what bullying is.

ZYX points out that these '4' posters never came on this board, my recollection is the same - was the posting history of these paid posters checked or had they newly created accounts that had no or little history with some tale of regret having closed down their account?

and your 'recollection' seems to have changed, 7 March 2022:- 'Don`t forget a couple of posters on this and ARB, admitted to being paid. Heh Upp, MS Finch?@'

So what's the evidence? Seems highly unlikely.

Northfork

did it ever occur to you to compare what UKOG (have no idea about ARB) claimed would happen at HH, BB, Basur vs what actually happened - and you blame a fantasy based on four posters admitting to being paid - and apologising - that anyone has been paid to post their (often correct) opinion that you consider negative has influenced the share price.

At least once FOTH has come on this board and pretended to be a 'swampy' - perhaps if he'd said he was being paid by the Russians you'd believe it? Not being able to spot complete BS isn't advisable in reading these boards.

Maybe it's rampers who were consistently wrong about the likely outcomes of BB, HH and Basur and have been paid to mislead investors by constantly repeating UKOG's claims without researching the risk of failure?

Presumably mullins and pboo know when the drill bit started turning again since it stopped on Thursday. Maybe it has, maybe it hasn't - like schrodinger's cat UKOG activities may or may not have happened and the outcome unknown to pi when there's no expected RNS - though silence has never been a sign of 'positive' progress when the stream of RNS stops.

Mannnan may wish that UKOG has only a few bits of bad news in the past but it's difficult to think of any UKOG outcome that has been good news - the SP chart is perhaps the best indicator of the good news vs bad news reality - so of course the past is off limits for comment, best to concentrate on expectations and potential rather than what has happened.

Another busy Sunday on the board.

But rather than comment on some of the ramping I'll repeat from a post on Saturday.

'As the main driver for the play seems to be the amplitudes seen on the seismic there should be news very soon after drilling recommences as the casing is set just above the Hoya formation with the strongest anomalies coincident with UKOG's Top Hoya horizon interpretation.'

Assuming they had the casing on site Thursday and setting casing and readying for drilling ahead went smoothly it is quite possible that the uppermost anomaly will have been drilled through already - therefore if the anomalies are a positive indication then there should have been oil shows and they may even have performed a flow test.

It will be interesting if there is a 7am RNS, and what it says. Any indication they're drilling ahead in the Hoya and haven't stopped for testing won't be good news as they've said they will stop to test if they encounter a good live oil show, not long to wait. Be wary if the RNS is evasive.

'It is planned to test any zones where good live oil shows are encountered prior to reaching the estimated total depth of around 500-550 metres'

Adrian

every time they've 'worked on the pump' you've claimed that production has increased - yet when the monthly figures are published the production level hasn't significantly changed (why would it - explain) if it's gone up a bit it's because the well was shut in for a while and production returns to a similar, or lower level, to production before the pump work the next month - btw a tractor unit went in and one came out so no extra tanker left on site on Friday.

I have never asked you to reveal who you are - ie what your name is - but presumably your mates revealed it years ago as it's common knowledge, as usual just making stuff up to suit your narrative.

Knowing that davethedrill1 is your twitter account is a different matter and your frequent visits to this board where you have been banned are hardly secret - but you were banned not for being positive as you constantly claim but breaking the rules about abusive posting - and that was on the Angs board anyway - though wasn't it was your third ban - the previous 2 just temporary.

More surprisingly you also lost your 'freeasabird' twitter account - you must really have gone overboard.

As for your false claim you wait outside HH for 'investors' - you do it to further your own investments, like UKOG picking and choosing what you tweet - and of course you're tipped off.

PPP PR?

No problem, you're welcome.

If anyone 'invests' now in PPP for the 3D and drilling at HH they obviously aren't aware that there are currently no reserves at HH and PPP don't have the cash to do it.

Perhaps if you started stating that it's your account on twitter you're talking about it wouldn't look like you're trying to deceive.

Perhaps you could mention what I should have been positive about out of all the wonderful wells UKOG have drilled.

BB?
HH-2z?
HH-1 production?
Basur-3?

It isn't being green, hating oil or any of the claptrap you spout - it's honest opinion.

They've all been opportunities for pi reward - just not for long term investors or UKOG - except enabling the diluting cash raising to fund the next high risk venture.

I've explained why Pinarova, Loxley and HH Kimmeridge and Portland further drilling don't appear to be that good and why UKOG's 'positives' are a lot weaker than UKOG suggest, not least because they seem to rely on planning to drill based on maps that have poor seismic control which enables a lot of fantasy 'positive' contouring. HH-2z was meant to be updip of HH-1 - it was downdip, Basur-3 showed the dangers of drilling without modern data, and, although UKOG haven't shown their new Basur map, choosing Pinarova above Basur-4 suggests that the new seismic hasn't confirmed the phase 1 seismic mapping.

On the subject of Basur despite the Basur-3 result and 2 phases of new seismic UKOG persist in putting the 30mmbbls for the gross 2C resources calculated by Xodus before Basur-3 was drilled. I'm not sure what AME's resources are based on but at least they've reduced the total licence resources to 7.3mmbbls - which is less than UKOG are carrying for Lead A.

See You've been busy today with your usual ridiculous pretence that you're not davethedrill1.

Not sure about PPP being a good bet, needing to raise the cash to shoot the 3D and then to drill. They may have a cap of £4.6mm but then will have to pay their share - 49% after that's spent.

Permitting the 3D should be fun, and of course it might not confirm UKOG's mapping that like so many of their maps - Loxley and Basur prime examples - rely on contouring a high or closure where there is no seismic control. Apart from the cost is that why UKOG haven't shot it so far - but maybe the NSTA wouldn't agree further drilling without it.

So DL will probablý be diluting the SH at PPP and shooting the 3D won't generate the same excitement that drilling does.

The Gedikasar well was started in 2022....jeez I need to reread my posts before posting....

Reading the annual report rather than Ocelot's excerpt it's apparent the exploration well was Gedikasar-1 - drilled in 2023. So I'm also guilty of not researching enough - I'll blame it on a hangover.

But although the well mentioned is not Pinarova, the new play where they've been gathering data is also not Pinarova.

So this part of the sentence 'In 2022 AME focused on consolidating production series of production and appraisal wells, whilst drilling one exploration well' is referring to wells that were all drilled in 2022 and all mentioned in the following paragraph, and the gathering of data, ('....and gathering data for POTENTIALLY GAME CHANGING EXPLORATION PLAY which will be executed in 2023') was also in 2022, and was for the hoped for gas play in the Bartin licence.

Also mentioned is the move to explore / produce more gas:- 'In the medium-term AME will be increasing its investment in gas prone opportunities as part of a sustainable product mix strategy.'

You may disagree with my understanding of the sentence but I doubt the Pinarova well represents a potentially 'game changing' play - though we shall see soon enough.

Ocelot,

The mention in AME's 2022 Annual Report of drilling Pinarova and gathering data for a potentially new exploration play are two different things. The new 'potentially new exploration play' is in the Bartin Licence which AME is trying to farm out - they're hoping the Black Sea offshore gas play extends onshore and planning on getting a partner to pay for seismic and a well.

Trying to connect them by putting both in capitals suggests a lack of research.

But the paragraph about proving reserves to international standards is interesting as it probably explains why the reserves that were quoted for E Sadak were revised downwards from 30mmbbls to 0.5mmbbls - and suggests that the resources that were previously quoted for Resan Basur were also not calculated to SPE standards as they have also been revised downwards by AME to 7.3mmbbls from the 2021 Annual Report figure of 23mmbbls - and UKOG quoted gross mean recoverable resources in January 2021 as 37mmbbls. Neither UKOG nor AME have offered any predictions of flow rates, OIP or recoverable oil from Pinarova-1 though.

As the main driver for the play seems to be the amplitudes seen on the seismic there should be news very soon after drilling recommences as the casing is set just above the Hoya formation with the strongest anomalies coincident with UKOG's Top Hoya horizon interpretation.

But the last time a well was being drilled in Turkey in the Basur-Resan licence the weekend after UKOG RNSed spudding Basur-3 Ocelot posted this in reply to a post of mine the previous day:-

'RE: Buy04 Jul 2021 12:22
Penguins,
Imho, as an investor in UKOG, I think you can begin to relax, the worst that can happen is that you make some money because the share goes up, (the 2nd worst, is that you make less money than you could have done because you didn't reinforce when the share was cheap).'

The SP closed on Friday at 0.24p

The next day Monday 5 July UKOG revealed a fund raise at 0.18p, and the SP dropped immediately to 0.19p.

Predicting what will happen next with UKOG's SP is fraught with uncertainties.

It's quite possible that by Monday morning Pinarova will have had an oil show and a flow test - I suspect a 7am RNS could lead to either a frenzy of buying or selling depending on what's RNS'd - and how it's RNS'd.

21 billion and an expectation of more.....

Ocelot,

whilst reading the 2022 annual report did you notice that E Sadak estimated recoverable oil went down to 0.5mmbbls from 30mmbbls the year before?

For Resan the estimate went down to 7.3mmbbls from 23mmbbls the year before.

E Sadak Production (the lookalike producing field to Basur) from the 14 wells drilled up to and during 2022 went down to 250bopd from 400bopd the previous year. Assuming only 10 of those wells were producing that's an average of 25bopd per well.

MM,

Not sure you should be offering buy / sell advice.

As for TD by Monday that would suggest no shows worth testing.

The uppermost and strongest seismic anomaly on the only section UKOG have shown for Pinarova is at the top of the Hoya, so as long as they have called the casing point correctly there should be shows worth testing, if Pinarova is going to be successful based on the anomalies, very soon after recommencing drilling - which if they go for minimal HSE could be today.

Let's see what happens.

MM

if UKOG got brave and showed more than one line and a nebulous outline with no contours that also has the Kezer well within it (which according to UKOG is at the culmination and flowed on test fluid with a strong oil cut) and also the Erbin well with total losses in the Hoya (if there were hydrocarbons in what was presumably a highly fractured - porous - interval surely it would have been mentioned), then the 9.2 sq km might mean something.

If it's meant to delineate where the sweetness amplitudes are high it extends far beyond where the strong thick orange amplitudes are - looking at the sweetness section the well has already drilled through a shallow dark horizon with minor orange amplitudes in the overburden above the Hoya . No shows presumably.

Won't be long now, let's see whether there's an opportunity for a P&D and whether there's a meaningful test.

Maybe they'll spin it out and if they have an oil show run a DST, but without a full test kit, so they'll wait to run casing and perforate before properly logging and doing a reliable test of an interval.........takes time.

Raise anyone?

MM,

so what is the porosity of the less good reservoir vs the porosity of the better quality that the amplitude anomaly hopefully indicates - it isn't foolproof - and what about permeability? - it does usually improve with porosity but not always.

How thick is the possible better quality reservoir zone?

Surely as you claim success will be transformational / large oil accumulation / high reward any idea of figures as neither AME or UKOG have made any such predictions - in fact UKOG even removed the 'potentially transformational' statement about Turkey you quoted previously from the first version of the 2022 Annual Report.

I wonder why.

Ocelot,

Have you compared what AME put in their annual report to what UKOG put in theirs, very different - no mention of shows in the target Hoya, no mention of a Hoya flow test of fluid with an oil cut, and only one legacy line with anomalies in the Hoya.

But in the next paragraph to your excerpt AME mention more 2D in 2023 in the Siirt area that UKOG haven't mentioned.

and whilst you mention, in your previous post, E Sadak/Oymantepe you didn't mention that the 2022 production was listed as 250bopd which is from the up to 14 wells (6 sidetracked) drilled on the field. The Oymantepe field in the E Sadak licence is the lookalike producing field to Resan Basur that was going to be 'transformational' according to UKOG. Given the modest production of the whole field it's strange the only flow rate for a well on the E Sadak field UKOG mentioned in 2020 when UKOG farmed into Basur-Resan (or ever) was an initial rate of 1300bopd. No doubt true but not representative of flow rates of wells on production.

Looking through AME's portfolio in their 2022 Annual Report which you're quoting from the outstanding feature is that it takes a lot of drilling for fields to have even modest production. Petek has 2 production wells for 63bopd; Arpatepe has 4 production wells for 140bopd; Altinakar has 3 production wells for 235bopd - the best average per wells in production. There are other much lower production fields (1 and 8 bopd) but they have been producing for a while and I suspect intermittently.

In the follow up presentation they listed E Sadak as having original 2P reserves of 28mmbbls - AME now list remaining reserves as 0.5mmbbls - they certainly haven't produced 27.5mmbbls since 2014 when production started.

Not sure Turkey lives up to the PR UKOG put out about Turkey / AME when they farmed in - at least Pinarova, as MM agrees, is high risk from theinformation UKOG and AME have given about Kezer, so no delusions there - though not sure I agree with MM's high reward.

MM,

OK so Pinarova is high risk so let's write BS about Loxley's 'transformational value' - which won't be drilled (if it is drilled) until 2024. But this is what RPS had to say about this apparently slam dunk risky 'appraisal' - seems to be a theme with UKOG drills.

'The Loxley-1 well is intended to be the first of two development wells within the PEDL 234 licence. Although it will be designed and drilled as potential production well, it will still have an element of appraisal as it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered. For this reason, the recoverable volumes predicted in this report are classified as Contingent Resources, Development Pending in accordance with the PRMS.'

'it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered'

Don't remember UKOG repeating that in their RNS about Loxley.

Of course it would be great if Loxley is successful - it's just that the evidence that it will be is weak.

As for the court case that won't delay anything as the timescale to clear the conditions will be way beyond June.

Good news at Pinarova good progress, some answers next week hopefully - interesting that they plan to test before completing the well, suppose it saves on casing the Hoya section if the tests are poor.