Member Info for Penguins

Just to be clear.

There is no £4.6mm funding.

All PPP have committed to, and that's subject to conditions, is shooting a 12 sq km 3D expected to be shot in H2 2023.

Then at their choice within 6 months need to fund the HH-3 well - but presumably only 100% of that up to what's left of the cap of £4.6mm - thereafter 51% UKOG, 49% PPP.

PPP only raised £1.5mm this morning - only the remainder after funding Texas well/s for HH.

Wizard,

expect plenty of tweets about how great Horse Hill is - just like 8 years ago - look where that got those that believed it and held through all those selling opportunities.

Since then they have a considerable amount of data about exactly how good it is, which seems to include 50 to 60 bopd potential after not long or excessive water production from the Portland and completely ignoring producing from the Kimmeridge after enough testing to know exactly how good it is - including an unpublished report with 1.5mmbbls of 2C resources.

These catalysts are coming in pretty fast now and yet............

Perhaps more interesting is they didn't farm into Loxley - apparently UKOG's 'most material petroleum asset'. So so fr haven't given away all the family silver.

I suppose we'll now have a year of billions of barrels I tell ya...........

Of course it isn't totally clear in the RNS whether the £4.6mm is just for the 3D - but I doubt even these days 12 sqkm of 3D would cost that and the word 'aggregate' implies it is for both. So UKOG will probably end up paying something towards HH-3 depending on the combined cost of well and seismic. Again it's unclear as to when UKOG will have to pay 51% though for any overrun - it appear to be after PPP ha provided the funds to drill HH-3, which presumably will be restricted to the aggregate cap of £4.6mm - and 'providing the funds' sounds like before the well has been drilled.

So that's Loxley and HH-3 in 2024 now.

..and HH-3 depends on PPP funding and acquiring a 3D survey (did NSTA wisely demand the obligation 3D be shot before any more drilling) and then funding the well - which could depend on the seismic confirming the current interpretation which has a culmination in the gap between seismic, as did Basur-4.

At the momènt just Pinarova in 2023 then, chosen for cheapness.

Thought I'd have another look at the sp**** information provided and one of the few things UKOG said about Pinarova in the initial RNS was this:-

'Both new and legacy seismic data also show a series of vertically stacked seismic amplitude anomalies within the core of Pinarova's Hoya structure, possibly directly indicating hydrocarbons and/or the development of good reservoir within the Hoya.'

In the Pinarova slides they show the 'normal' amplitude seismic and the 'sweetness' attribute for the same data on a legacy line - all very nice - bright spots all over the place.

But sweettness is not AVO / AVA which can used for direct hydrocarbon detection. Whilst this might not be possible on legacy data without reprocessing from field tapes that may be missing or unreadable given that it would be important to determinie whether the amplitude anomaly is better reservoir (something 'sweetness' can be used for) or directly indicating hydrocarbons (something it isn't used for) it is unusual that AME hasn't produced AVO / AVA sections on the new data which can help distinguish between oil filled and water filled reservoir - or perhaps it has been done........

We'll see soon enough whether the amplitudes are indicative of oil or better reservoir filled with oil, water or like Kezer-1 both.

Ellls,

good to see you finally took the notice of what you thought were 'derampers' or 'greenies' posyted and started selling on pump and dumps - but how does that fit with holding for June?

If only you hadn't bought at 0.09p or so after the raise in July....

Second post on LSE:-

'Metom
Posted in: UKOG / Posts: 2,196 / Price: 0.245
No Opinion
What the hell happened 04 Aug 2020 08:28
Bloody fake news .dont trust this company anymore'

Yep - like you about UKOG in 2020 - fake news, unless you can give a source for this supposed 'information' - and you haven't spelt Aladdin correctly.

Perhaps the biggest warning is the posting on VAL........

which brings me to the garbage written by Ells /TSP.

Likes lists of nonsense - or the bl**ding obvious - Pinarova 'news' - yep drilling an appraisal of a well flowing water with an oil cut - should be interesting though - the nonsense has started (metom)

so:-

'Horse Hill new Partner to drill further wells on the Portland June onwards' - really - it sounded more like a hope.

and June - this is what UKOG said about risks at HH and the need for more seismic - '3D seismic could dramatically reduce the risk of infill Portland drilling and Kimmeridge appraisal drilling as well as high grade key areas
of production enhancement opportunity.' - but it was only 'could' and is someone going to farm in without more seismic (and the same should be true for Loxley)

Horse Hill is already profitable - but not very much, it's hoped it will improve it by £250,000 so still way under half a million - so less than the salaries at UKOG.

Didn't hear anything about Alba increasing their stake in HH

and it's just hope that IGas or Angus might farm in to Loxley - they haven't bothered so far and the CPR was a bit flakey in places.

Unbelievable - literally.

Looks like if page 32 didn't work repurposing the whole site was the next nationally important project for Horse Hill.

Drill 6 x up to 7000m wells (up to 23,000ft each - over 4 miles) for geothermal because it isn't cost effective in SE England - nice duck pond though..........

No wonder that page didn't make it into the 20 July tweeted excerpts.

I suppose they were starting to get desperate for anything with the new phase 1 seismic showing targeting the Basur-1 well was a non-starter and the Basur-4 target looking shaky even before the phase 2 seismic.

At least it's clear now what they prepare new Corporate presentations for, though they usually remember to remove the begging page.

Thanks,

Strange it should appear now. At least now the comment about HH seismic is clarified in the jumping for joy tweet - but should worry those expecting drilling later this year at HH if they go ahead without it.

'3D seismic acquisition
• Feasibility study underway to assess the merits and costs of a small 3D seismic programme to enhance geological understanding
• 3D seismic could dramatically reduce the risk of infill Portland drilling and Kimmeridge appraisal drilling as well as high grade key areas of production enhancement opportunity'

We'll see.

I've just noticed that on the 'Reports and Presentations' page of UKOG's web site there is a Corporate Presentation dated 12 July 2022.

I've looked back to that date on this board and it isn't mentioned - in fact there's this post (from ibug) that suggests it definitely wasn't there on the 12 July nor by the 17 July:-

'RE: signalled on the home page 17 Jul '22
This was obviously supposed to be positive news but never made it.

"UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) has completed a new Corporate Presentation which is now available on the Company website www.ukokplc.com. This incorporates an update on all our activities at Portland Port, Loxley, Turkey and Horse Hill."'

There's an earlier post on 12 July also from ibug mentioning it was originally signalled on the UKOG PLC site on 6 July the day after the 'jumping for joy in June' tweet was published.

Following that on 20 July there was a series of tweets incorporating bits of the presentation specific to some of the projects but no mention of the whole presentation.

Perhaps the reason why it wasn't on the web site then was the last slide:-'Estimated use of funds, corporate structure & management team'

Which gives the game away that they needed £3mm - so the presentation was for a raise of £3mm ...but the fund raise on 27 July only grossed £1.25mm.

Hence the £3mm raise in September.

Has it only just or recently been put on the web site?

Ocelot,

Always good to see a cut and paste about gas prices in the opinion of speculative traders and a bank.

Surely the opinions suggest, as you'd expect, higher prices lead to lower consumption

........if only UKOG had any gas they could sell in the next few years.

The other day according to you a lowish but steady gas price would help the Loxley farm out - so is this bad news or is it a case that any price high or low (SP, oil, gas) can be spun as good if you try hard enough - all time low expert Ells seemed to spin the same garbage.

That should be GIIP, not OIP for Loxley":-

'Xodus, with UKOG mapping based on the same data wouldn't calculate resources or OIP in the 2018 CPR....'

Ocelot,

'Could'

Is that just like Turkey, Broadford Bridge, Horse Hill were going to be transformational and/or of national importance with claims of riches beyond imagination being claimed.

2C resources and in the CPR this:-

'The Loxley-1 well is intended to be the first of two development wells within the PEDL 234 licence. Although it will be designed and drilled as potential production well, it will still have an element of appraisal as it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered. For this reason, the recoverable volumes predicted in this report are classified as Contingent Resources,'

Nothing UKOG does is anything less than worth hundreds of millions - until it's drilled.

Xodus, with UKOG mapping based on the same data wouldn't calculate resources or OIP in the 2018 CPR, and in 2020 wouldn't assign their volumetric calculations based on new UKOG mapping as a CPR - just a report / study.

You should be sorry you have been repeating UKOG PR for years but never acknowledged how misleading it has been when it comes to the results.

'..........with net earnings after costs of £136,000'

Probably not even half SS wages as we wait to see what those were for 2021/2022- and not even half the revenue from Horndean.

Every year IGas commission a CPR on all their assets - for most it's just a copy and paste of the previous year with updates - UKOG has tested and put into production and 'planned' several times to commission a CPR for Horse Hill since the 2018 CPR - even getting a report performed by RPS on the Kimmeridge in June 2019, though not being a CPR it remains unseen by the company's owners. Yet decided to get a CPR based on scant data for Loxley when after 6 months they failed to farm it out despite the 'pre-planned' element that some posters got excited about.

With a valuation of tangible assets of about £5mm (Horse Hill and Horndean) there is already more hope than substance in the current SP considering it translates to a mcap of £13mm.

You posted:-
'The recent more modest price of natural gas may facilitate discussions re the farm-out of Loxley:
front month back over 100p at 101.65p
Winter 23: 130.50p
Winter 24: 133p.'

There's no evidence these 'futures' prices mean anything.

From just one of your posts last year rejoicing high forward prices:-

'closing ICE prices 03 Aug 2022 17:45
Front month, September: 381p + 5.4%.If we look further out:
Winter 22: 470p
Winter 23: 350.5p
Winter 24: 221p

The on 8 August:-

'The price of natural gas on 19/01/21 was 57.77p. Yesterday (05/08), the front month, September, closed at 371p (and today, 08/08 at 355.75p), more than 6 times higher, so "one of the UK onshore's most valuable undeveloped assets" has become much more valuable during the intervening period.
If UKOG can persuade the SoS of the encouraging prospects of its Loxley project, it can also persuade its peers of those prospects via the implementation of its pre-planned farm-out programme.
Loxley looks to be a potentially very valuable asset which, to date, has been overlooked by the market.'

Seems everything is good news for the Loxley farm out - except of course there haven't been any takers - companies that would examine the data to decide the geologic risks before worrying about the prices speculators pay for gas months or years in the future.

Busy later but while I was looking for that post I came across this from before Pinarova was announced in the RNS of 11/01/23:-

'30 Nov 2022 10:24'

'Perhaps they're scratching around for some sort of lead justified by the oil seep. The amount of attention they gave the oil seep initially seemed suspicious as there's already pretty good evidence that oil generation has taken place in the licence with shows and small amounts tested.
Was 'bigging up' the seep a backup if the leads failed to mature into targets?'

It's also worth noting they didn't mention the Kezer well results until the January 2023 RNS which considering it was, like the oil seep, to the north of the Basur - Resan structure and had flowed some oil in the water seems a strange omission.

Here's part of the oil seep RNS 30/6/22 :-

'The seep's API gravity is close to the 43° API gravity of AME's nearby producing East Sadak oil field and provides evidence of an active light oil petroleum system in the central area of the licence, lying to the north of the joint venture's ("JV") focus on appraising the Basur-1 oil discovery. This has positive implications for future exploration in the licence.'

But no mention of nearby Kezer in the RNS. Of course at that point appraising a well flowing water with even a heavy oil cut ahead of the open space contoured Basur-4 target would have seemed ludicrous. Since then they have shot the second phase of seismic to 'confirm' the Basur-4 mapping but they haven't showed that map, perhaps it wasn't quite as good as hoped.

Wizard,

So you can't find any positives about Pinarova just criticise another poster.....

I have often explain why I have shares btw. Initially because I was interested and then realised it could be a very good cyclical gamble but as It's a gamble I was uncomfortable not also stating what I expected - pretty sure that there's plenty of 'belief'rather than research when the P&Ds arrive.

But not my life savings nor chasing 'fools gold' tickets by constantly averaging down to keep up with the dropping share price. Selling most on P&Ds (maybe one day it will be a rerate - I can't be right all the time) and buying back on the so far inevitable drop afterwards, and I don't always get it right - probably just like the posters that recommend your posts - except they are desperate to influence others to not to sell before they do. Obviously now the return is diminishing as most seem to have realised that UKOG claims have so far proved a fantasy - and even the super positive expectations have dried up for anything happening soon - Pinarova, HH-2z conversion.

I'm sure I could find plenty more, and some will have been deleted when Adrian is banished every now and then - but here's one from late last year (6/10/22 to ells) - 'But I see you're still peddling the activist nonsense - if you think that someone who has considered the projects poor since 2015 invests for the long term rather than gamble on the pumps followed by the inevitable dumps then you are deluded'

Wizard,

when the only positive about the Pinarova well is it's cheap (which I mention) what else am I supposed to say?

Perhaps you can provide the positives about Pinarova-1. Has the government waived it's 12.5%? Has UKOG mentioned OIP? flow rates? Kezer oil cut?

looks like the pad is ready for a small truck mounted rig.

As for it's long term I'm afraid that as far as the Kimmeridge and Portland at Horse Hill is concerned it has already been a long time and yet you keep expecting something to change significntly when UKOG's lack of progress and constant casting around for something else - anything else - suggests otherwise.

I can't imagine how many times you've posted along the lines of hoping 'there will be better times ahead'.

Mannnan,

'What i heard the Turkish delight is not priced in'

There's a good reason for that - UKOG haven't given any indication of OIP volume or anticipated flow rates of oil from this different reservoir / play in the licence, and possibly area, so it would only be a wild guess for the success case, even that could easily be less than the £3.63mm NPV UKOG decided for HH as in the Turkish licence UKOG only 'own' half of 87.5% of production - sharing what's left with AME after the Turkish government take their 12.5% of oil produced.

Being a shallow well pressure may be a problem and decline worse than the nearby, but producing from a different reservoir, wells on the E Sadak field given the main driver to appraise the Kezer-1 2018 discovery (having flowed water with an oil cut), which hadn't previously been mentioned as a possible target, was the considerably lower cost than another well on Basur.

The compay has already said it hopes (seeks!) that it will save £250,000 net. That may well have already been taken into account in the Horse Hill valuation of £3.63mm - from the last Annual Report and Account:-

'The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £3.63 million and therefore determined that HH-1 should be impaired by £1.46 million. The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed. Costs were based on current costs less any anticipated savings. A long-term Brent oil price of US$91/bbl was used being the spot rate at the time of assessment, with a discount rate of 6.3% used.....'

This exrract also shows why independant assessments need to be made rather than leaving it to the directors to decide - they have used a long term Brent price of $91 (today mid $70's) and used a discount rate of 6.3% when 10% is more regularly used (eg the Loxley CPR). What's also apparent is that UKOG has a forecast for production at Horse Hill which they decline to show to the owners - 'internally generated depletion curve'.

Therefore there's a lot of hope in the SP for the current mcap of £13mm with current production at Horse Hill probably at a similar level to the latest figures released not by UKOG but the NSTA - December 2022, an average of 55bopd. There is also about 10bopd net to UKOG from Horndean.

UKOG haven't given any guidance for the upcoming Pinarova well in a success case whilst publishing a CPR based on very little data about Loxley which is not anticipated to be drilled until 2024.

UKOG unusually haven't given any guidance of expectations of flow rates for Pinarove despite it being close to the previously unmentioned 'discovery' well Kezer-1 which flowed water with an oil cut (described as an unquantified 'heavy oil cut). Described in a success case as similar to the expectations of Basur-4 - that expectation was also not mentioned. However based on previous statements by UKOG that E Sadak was a producing 'lookalike' to Basur -Resan the expectations for Basur-4 may not be that great. Already proving with the #3 well that the Basur structure was smaller than when UKOG farmed in the whole E Sadak field with multiple, and some recently drilled wells, was reported in the AME web site to be producing 400bopd - probably from most of the 14 wells drilled to date on the E Sadak field.

We shall soon see whether Pinarova was a good choice or just a cheap choice - not always a good determinant.

But with regard to generating revenue

~ Turkey fully funded - but no longer appraising Basur-1 following the Basur-3 debacle drilling before defining the prospect that didn't exist. Now appraising a well that flowed water with an oil cut.

~ Horse Hill operations - awaiting groundwater investigation but is it fully funded, a CTU or workover rigs aren't cheap? If it works it will save on water disposal but unlikely to significantly improve production which appears to be constrained to maintain pressure.

~ Loxley buyout - buyout? They've been trying to farm Loxley out since July last year. The CPR RNS seemed to suggest that UKOG were considering debt funding for the well. Even if they get a farminee the well isn't planned until 2024 and there won't be any revenue until 2026 - even if it's successful.

The Chief Executive's statement in the last Interim Report lead with the Portland gas storage project as did the Operational Review (after Health, Safety and the Environment).

This suggests that UKOG see this as a priority and are spending time and cash advancing the Portland gas storage project that is unlikely to be operational much before the end of the decade let alone profitable.