Member Info for Penguins

Ells,

'you need the farm in partner to verify the CPR'

No they may be as desperate as UKOG for 'news'.

You need the Loxley well to be successful to verify the CPR, everything else is hope until then.

Even UKOG never knowingly pessimistic put a 60 to70% probability of success in their submission to the inquiry.

and success isn't just a short gas test. You need to prove the reservoir can flow a commercial,quantity of gas, the expectation for a not that great reservoir is very high, and a sufficient volume / gas column.

Mullins,

Posters sometimes make comparisons between UKOG's mcap compared to other companies with no production.

IGas currently have a mcap of £26mm and average production in 2022 of just under 1900boepd, more than 30 times UKOG's daily reported production in November 2022.

Igas also have the licence containing the Godley Bridge discovery with 2C resources of 12.5BCF in the 2023 CPR - but they can wait for UKOG to take the risk of proving the resources just to the east of their licence.

It would be surprising if they hadn't viewed UKOG's farm out of Loxley but as the option of farming out still exists according to UKOG they didn't farm in.

Despite this it doesn't look like the announcement was well received by the market - seemingly preferring hype to solid figures.

Ells,

So on one hand;-

'Who in their right mind holds an AIM share for a long time baring in mind the FTSE AIM All-Share Index is still below 2007 highs which is 16 years ago!!!!
When you see hype "sell".'

Yet:- '£££ will come in due course for Loxley and strengthen the balance sheet….'

in 2026 and only if Loxley is successful - yet 'will'

As for hype - this using a price forecast requested by UKOG, not RPS's price forecast (CPR RNS):-

'Up to £124 million net UKOG mid-case 2C post-tax net present value (at 10% discount rate).'

and based on 2C resources, not reserves - no risking, no price sensitivity.

and finally your excuse:-

'but with all the bull crap challenges in the UK he chose to shift some of funds to the EU'

Yes but how devious was this (in July 2020):-

'The quality of the Licence's geological address and opportunity is compelling, the targets being directly on trend with the geological look-alike East Sadak field and located within the same petroleum system as the major oil producing Kurdistan region of Iraq.'

When they knew that the 'geological lookalike 'E Sadak field was nothing like the Kurdistan fields - wells with modest initial production, high decline and a history of wells missing the target reservoir requiring sidetracks (sound familiar)

It was almost certainly because UKOG desperately needed a distraction (any distraction) to HH producing water with declining production, HH-2z producing overwhelming water instead of oil, and probably not wanting to drill any more Portland wells at HH because of the risk of water. As for the Kimmeridge maybe the BB and HH testing indicated there was a problem with producing it, actions speaking louder than RNS.

................and despite the claims that Turkey would be in the EU by certain politicians in 2016 it still isn't in the EU

Ells you posted:-
'They haven't bothered to drill @ Horse Hill because of an action group that want to save the local wildlife from uhhhh nothing.'

That's an excuse that UKOG haven't ever suggested - but not an explanation why they haven't done something that according to certain posters would improve cashflow and pay for itself easily within a year.

So I suppose it must mean if your 'excuse' was the problem converting HH-2z wouldn't improve cashflow significantly so isn't worth doing if the planning was overturned and eventually UKOG couldn't get planning for using HH-2z for water disposal?

Ells,

explain why with permission to convert HH-2z since last May when certain posters believe it will enable increased production and of course massive savings on water disposal it hasn't already been done as even in the unlikely event the planning was overturned there will be years of legal challenges by UKOG and the savings will be more than the cost of doing it - supposedly. UKOG could even ask for retrospective PP for the injector.

But then maybe it won't allow an increase in oil production, and maybe there are risks that injection won't work as intended - perhaps that's why it hasn't been done?

Otherwise you keep posting that a Kimmeridge well willl be started before end September - a NSTA dealine - yet without a raise they can't drill it - though they have raised more than enough since 2020 to drill more wells at Horse Hill that they've wasted in Turkey, and probably a million or so on the Portland gas storage project.

I'd say that the reason they haven't done any more drilling at HH is because it isn't worth it - they had considerable test data and now have years of production data - yet got a CPR done for Loxley with no reserves, rather than Horse Hill which would have had reserves - again another inexplicable choice unless they are pretty certain what an HH CPR would say.

Ells,

Seeing as you refuse to answer questions I'll do the same - but surely you mean

The CPR report will have cost, and Loxley is unfunded

The Turkey drill is a risky drill

The June legal challenge failure will make no difference

Water reinjector hasn't been advanced since May last year - why not do it when the OP was high?

A strong cash position from 2022 is probably mostly spent

Ells,

Did you miss out at selling at 0.078p yesterday? Too busy posting -what was it 50 posts?

Better hope that UKOG can find some more news scraped off the bottom of the barrel to help out - that support level already being tested this morning - without the pumpers who've moved on already.

Could be another long day ahead of posting often out of date UKOG PR for some.

How many times have UKOG claimed transformational / national importance volumes of oil before drilling only to find they either aren't there or won't come out in viable quantities - every drill so far at HH, BB and Basur.

Some are still posting those oil volumes even though drilling has proved they aren't there.

As for the £123mm that's the NPV10 2C case that UKOG requested as they didn't like the RPS gas price forecast.

The official NPV10 2C value was £86m. There was no risked case, nor apart from UKOG's high price scenario any gas price sensitivity.

A farm out would dilute their share - and it still needs drilling (UKOG said £6mm+) with cash they still won't have in 2024 - but as ocelot said about pre-planned farm out it came across as a 'bit of an aside' - doesn't sound like there's been much enthusiasm in the last 7 months.

At least there will be a few spiked herd followers to boost the ramping for Pinarova when it's mentioned again by UKOG- only about seven weeks left of Q1!

Let's hope UKOG don't remind the market Pinarova is an appraisal of a well at the apex of the structure that flowed water with an oil cut on test, nor keep stating 'if successful'.

Ells,

Still watching - when's it going to happen?

Have you ever got anything right - I certainly can't remember you making a prediction that's come true.

Perhaps you could point one out.

Maybe you could then explain why the SP is still below a tenth of a penny if being positive was right?

I quite often got things wrong - but strangely enough whilst you say I've always been negative I've often not been negative enough - just not positive enough for posters who take what UKOG claim as facts when they're no more than opinions.

Supposedly only about 5 weeks before Pinarova is drilled - and should very quickly be known how successful it is.

Not sure what you mean by 'so he takes his chances when he can.'

Sounds more like your infrequent visits to comment - then disappear for a while.

Ells

Don't think there will be a bidding war for Loxley - the CPR seems more like an attempt to generate some interest from companies who haven't already rejected it. The pre-planned farm-out was implemented in July last year - are you suggesting no one had a look?

as for the 'big £££' they're more likely pi pumpers - and it's more likely the herd follows and then the 'big £££' exit.

Let's see what happens if there's no new news RNS tomorrow.

The CPR says:-

The Loxley-1 well is intended to be the first of two development wells within the PEDL 234 licence. Although it will be designed and drilled as potential production well, it will still have an element of appraisal as it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered. For this reason, the recoverable volumes predicted in this report are classified as Contingent Resources'

Significant unknowns 'it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered'

But no negatives from Loxley this year as it won't be drilled until 2024.

Pinarove may be cheap but very risky.

Apart from the NSTA deadline, that may be extended anyway, there doesn't appear to be a real plan to drill again at Horse Hill. A bad result at Pinarova (unless UKOG raise before results - cf the raise before Basur-3 result - but after spud) would drop the SP and make funding it a disaster for pi.

Anyway, interesting day - I wonder how many actually read (and understood) the CPR or even UKOG's PR - or just hopefully followed the herd.

Does it not occur to you that they almost certainly commissioned the CPR because the main players had already visited the farm out data room and come to their own decision about Loxley.

Just a way of promoting it further afield - and of course a P&D........

The problem with CPR is the company will push hard for their views (first draft issued 4 Jan 2023 - final draft 3 Feb - final report 20 Feb) and as there's no reserves RPS are not on the hook for any meaningful valuation - just a valuation 'if' Loxley-1 is successful and proves a commercial flow rate and GIIP.

You posted:-

The share price has started to re-rate (ref volume 23/11) & TR-1 Notification of increase RNS 24/11. Accumulation Phase.'

Did you forget the TR1s where IG sold down, and then sold down to less than 3% - the de-accumulation phase?

& :- 'Millions in the bank (2 successful placings in 2022)'

Successful for UKOG but not so much for shareholders - and especially you. But it looks like the first was spent by the second raise as it included some of the work the first was meant to cover. Lots of other costs months workover at HH, AME interpretation an well prep, Portland gas storage- consultants and salaries.

&:- 'Permit to drill further wells on the Kimmeridge @ Horse Hill tick (increased flow rates from November 2022 onwards with the new pump fitted (tick), lots of 3WE oil tankers recorded leaving site in January 23, August rates highest since March 2022) Oil Receipts £££'

Kimmeridge wells been permitted for years, increased flow rate - 1bopd more than October - which was lowest full months average production of 48bopd + 27bopd water. But UKOG has no money to drill - why CPR Loxley which won't lead to bank lending as no reserves - but not HH???

Pinarove is an appraisal of a geothermal test that flowed water with an oil cut at the apex of the structure - only redeeming feature - it's cheap, wil almost certainly have an oil show - but might flow a low rate that the government insists is developed as they get 12.5% of the oil, and none of the costs.

Portlans gas storage is eve more years away than Loxley (Loxley - 3 years if successful and if as planned) still in the pre-planning submission stage, not funded but costing UKOG.

Loxley CPR has little changed contingent resources from the 2021 inquiry contingent resources. Unlike Xodus in the 2018 CPR RPS just accepted UKOG's depth mapping, previous applicants for the licence have highlighted the problems in the area with depth conversion. The mention in the RNS about the pre-planned farmout implemented in July 2022 confirms no takers and suggests no ongoing discussions.

As for this made up BS:-

'Nationally significant infrastructure project (Government funded scheme) could well provide clean energy via a geothermal energy hub conversion at Horse Hill'

Horse Hill is not in Cornwall which is a UK 'hotspot, Central Southern Englnd isn't. There might be enough hot water to heat some nearby buildings / greenhouses but certainly not nationally significant and no recent mention of solar, geothermal or utilising the gas for electricity generation at HH.

But do carry on repeating you BS......

....3 years away!

The CPR proves nothing - in fact the reserves are contingent because there is no well proving the gas is there and can be produced at a commercial rate.

But it seems UKOG forget that failure is a very real option. As for forseeable future 2026 maybe for first sales gas - that's 4 years away - and everyone is buying today for a long wait........

Why is everybody lying.

The broker rating is ancient, but the inquiry is over and UKOG have planning.

More important may be that UKOG have been trying to farm Loxley out for 7 months with no takers - what are they seeing that RPS didn't?

Apologies went straight to reports to look for the CPR and didn't read the whole RNS where they said it would be on their site.

Had a quick read.

Main concern iis they haven't reworked the mapping at all, and accepted the depth conversion using a single VoK function when it should be multilayered.

So unsurprisingly the volumetrics are the same as for Xodus as the map is the same as shown in the inquiry documentation.

The Alfold resistivity log data supports the GWC but the CPI does suggest that the reservoir is worse and it's unfortunate there is no rft data within the gas leg at Alfold.

Still think the biggest risk, and one RPS don't examine in any detail (at all) is the depth conversion. Let's hope it doesn't come back to bite later.

So given how good it is I suppose the question is why has nobody farmed in to the pre-planned farm out

........and the talk of a CPR to enable bank lending for an undrilled appraisal also begs the question why haven't they done one for Horse Hill?

Where is it- why haven't they made it available to read the whole thing rather than selected highlights, chosen by UKOG?

No mention of them making it available.

Odd.

Ells,

So you think it's 100% certain she will lose the court case - I agree and that's far less risk that any well UKOG might drill at HH.

So either UKOG have a different view, which I doubt, or the result will make no difference to when anything is done at HH. Looking at what UKOG tweet and RNS I'd say their current rankingof their projects is first Portland gas storage, Loxley if a farminee can be found, Turkey then HH - not sure BB is on their radar any more.

Not sure that's how it should be as surely they should be trying to maximise profit from HH and use that to fund their other ambitions - so why aren't they.

It probably reflects their view of chance of success for the risky oil and gas projects - hoping something comes good (thegrass is greener principle of exploration - ie the less you know about a future drill means you might be lucky) rather than trying water injection or drilling more wells at HH where they probably have a pretty good idea what might happen. Any of these trumped by the possibility of selling off UKEn and the hope of leaving the sinking ship with it.

'Well suppose all goes to plan and Pinarova goes into production. Bingo'

Well that of course is a possibility I mention but of course UKOG's only guidance is 'if successful' - most unusual for UKOG to suggest anything but successful outcomes.

Even Adrian posted:- 'Waiting for results is risky.'

I've been accused of being negative before about the projects and activities though rarely as bad as the outcomes, so actually quite often positive and at worst realistic - then again UKOG hasn't had a successful well since I joined the board, and even HH-1 production hasn't delivered what many expected, seemingly including UKOG - though they don't usually do negative so what their downside predictions were isn't known.

ells,

'The Turkey drill will take UKOG to June with higher share price'

Suppose the Pinarova well is a failure - I'd say quite a high chance of not going into production - and if it does a low bopd as the government can insist as they get 12.5% of produced oil. Probably a guaranteed oil show though so when to sell?

Are you buying now (well in July last year at about 0.09p) for June 2023? or like most, if there's a rise into the rig arrival as predicted by Adrian l, selling then?

'More snow on the way thus energy grid working harder'

Good for those companies producing significant oil and can increase production, gas and electricity - so why mention it here - you'll worry Adrian that Angus will come good before he can sell here and buy there.

' Then there will be a raise to drill the new Kimmeridge well before end of September ay HH.'

.........or not - NSTA might give another extension, or UKOG might decide to not drill and relinquish acreage as much of the licence isn't worth retaining - double benefit as they don't have to drill a risky well and as licence fees are based on sq km they'll reduce.