Member Info for Penguins

MM,

If Loxley is successful to the extent mapped and if the GWC is the same as Godley Bridge, if a single well can deliver a daily rate that is multiples of the rate originally expected and if it's appropriate to use the gas price forecast that UKOG requested RPS use - then if it's appropriate to present an unrisked NPV valuation to investors based on all these risks then the unrisked NPV for the 2C recoverable gas at Loxley is £124m.

But it really isn't appropriate to present Loxley as if it has no risk.

I can understand why UKOG would not use that paragraph to explain what that figure represents - which is why most posters won't be aware of the risks involved.

Like every project in the past the risks haven't been presented in RNS even if they have been mentioned elsewhere, and if there's one thing certain posters don't like to post about it's risk, partly because it involves research and reading and understanding what's being written.

This is RPS's view:-

'The Loxley-1 well is intended to be the first of two development wells within the PEDL 234 licence. Although it will be designed and drilled as potential production well, it will still have an element of appraisal as it must first prove commercial flowrates are achievable which will depend on the height of the gas column and reservoir properties encountered. For this reason, the recoverable volumes predicted in this report are classified as Contingent Resources, Development Pending in accordance with the PRMS.'

They also said this about that valuation:-

At the request of UKOG, a gas price sensitivity using a flat price of 186.05p/therm (£18.61/MMBtu) was also carried out. The gas price was based on the reported settlement price as of 31st December 2022.

'Many of your posts will come back to haunt you in good time'

Seems you forgot whose turn it was to eat the humble pie:-

'theluckyone

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 1,108

Price: 0.0735

No Opinion

Custard & Cream 15 May 2023 12:38

What will the de ramp crew choose to eat with all the HUMBLE PIE

Hold tight for our Turkish Delight'

My reply:-

'RE: Custard & Cream 15 May 2023 13:02

Unluckyone,

'I'd wait for the RNS before declaring who needs to eat humble pie - there was a similar enthusiasm, by some of those posting so enthusiastically now before the RNS about the previous swab test cam out - at least they had cuttings with oil in as the motivation to swab that time.'

You seem to think this board is just for those that want to post any rubbish and justify it with imo, or alternatively make made up accusations about other posters, often derogatory.

Of course you don't want anyone to challenge what is eventually proved to be nonsense opinions - but 'swamping the board' - you've posted 49 times since Friday adding to Adrian's 147 - nearly 200 posts between you two and you're assuming I'll take any notice of your sermon.

The clowns have already forgotten that the story they came up with was completely wrong and are now metaphorically strutting around as if their certainty that the Hoya with its upper zone of cuttings with oil, but a failed swab test, and the primary target amplitude anomaly would be tested is borne out by the fact that AME /UKOG are only going to test a zone that they know very little about, is very shallow and likely tight.

It's glaringly obvious that the 'final logging' RNS 'business' was to avoid having to admit in the 3 May RNS that nothing was seen whilst drilling the primary target and the logs immediately available were good enough to decide to not run (buy!) 7" casing with nothing worth testing in the Hoya, an analysis the clowns were desperate to suppress - was drilling an extra 50m another clue- just a drill ahead for a while and hope for something?

The wording about the perforating 'not fully' penetrating the casing and cement was odd and how could they be sure that no perforations reached the formation. As I posted earlier the oil smell was possibly because the 'reservoir' is so tight that the oil wasn't flushed away as the bit approached. Presumably if the formation is tight the pressure data could be read either way - and they have chosen to RNS the failed to reach the formation version rather than it's a tight formation.

Knowing practically nothing about the oil smell zone has given them a (poor) reason to pursue testing it. I have before commented that SS appears to be prepared to keep spending money on lost causes in the hope he can salvage the tiniest bit of 'good news' to RNS.

Adrian,

I don't give a flying **** what you 'want' to be called. You're Adrian - and btw not many account names are a person's name if you hadn't noticed..

You denied you were Adrian before and then when you were finally banned (again) you moaned on twitter about being banned.

So many 'tells' even admin must have difficulty letting you stay on just because you're trying so very hard not to go into one. I have of course copied all your posts over the weekend as like ells / JR90 / G-M you'll want to erase the record at some point - maybe you and G-M are hoping that somehow the smell-o-log will come up good, and of course you both need a platform to try and claim that the legal battle going UKOG's way is significant.

Question is how are those costs in Turkey mounting up - how many times doid they try perforating, then there's the 2 year late HH-2z conversion to pay for, let's hope PPP don't drop a wishing well operational RNS with low flow rates or maybe that deal will whither away.....any news of the coming up to a year old Loxley farm out / Angus purchase. Anyone notice how the SP dived on the news of increased production - why pay 100% to drill for more gas that isn't even definitely there,

Adrian,

Idon't blame you for what's happened - but you chose to ignore any argument that didn't conform to your desire that everything was going well.

'Youngandspecial

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 96

Price: 0.0705

No Opinion

RE: Why its taking long for RNS Today 23:50

You'd better hope you can get my posts removed tomorrow Penguins. And that nobody screen shots them and then plasters them all over social media when the RNS drops confirming im right. And you and Mr Contradiction are to rubbish re the 7 inch casing.x'

Serially mugged by SS, again - what's the saying - fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me - I wonder what the third, fourth etc time would be. Maybe you should read my posts to find out what's happening.

Maybe the SP is not being hit as hard as it should whilst what's in the RNS is worrying - what they've avoided mentioning is the Hoya the actual target for this well.

So they failed to test anything apparently over a 2 week period during which they claimed to be 'testing' in 2 tweets:-

UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

May 11

TURKEY LATEST: Testing continues at Pinorova-1 over zone corresponding to strong oil odour and oil to surface.

&

UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM

May 16

TURKEY UPDATE: Detailed testing continues at Pinarova-1.

and now we're told that the perforating gun didn't 'fully' get through the casing and cement - that's OK there probably isn't anything there that will test anyway.

So what 'testing' were they doing that was continuing - I suppose trying to test would have been too honest.

but now, despite it not being primary, secondary or even a mentioned target prior to drilling Pinarova, which itself is an appraisal of a well that wasn't mentioned before January this year, they're going to wait a while (more pay checks for everyone) to source the perforating gun they should have got in the first place.

Why are they so desperate to test this shallow zone that they didn't mention had an oil smell and displaced some emulsion to surface when the casing was set until nearly 2 weeks later when they had reached TD, swab tested the secondary target in the Hoya and produced some water, drilled through the primary target and presumably seen nothing oily at all had logs available to confirm the Hoya was no longer a target and presumably there was nothing else.

Perhaps in normal circumstances they would P&A the well - but it looks like it's all they have to try and save some face for drilling a well that looked so obviously likely to fail.

To those that still think there's hope consider what is fact in the above and what is conjecture that UKOG could have RNS'd.

To the clowns that kept posting how wrong I was to be what they claimed was negative - I may have to wait for proof but as I keep pointing out - I'm not negative, just realistic, unlike these three charlatons.

'G-Martin

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 72

Price: 0.0685

No Opinion

RE: News coming soon22 May 2023 10:44

Guranteed Pinarova gusher. Then they will introduce Pinarova-2 and the de-ramping freaks are gone.'

'Youngandspecial

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 157

Price: 0.068

No Opinion

RE: Reality check 22 May 2023 20:54

Cant wait for ops update confirming 7 inch liner set to TD 4.5 inch perf guns used and testing the Hoya Quack Quack :)'

'theluckyone

Posted in: UKOG

Posts: 1,085

Price: 0.0705

No Opinion

RE: A reminder why AME & UKOG drilled the well21 May 2023 10:29

YoungandSpecial

Im looking forward to how they will try and deramp the coming GUSHER if nothing else it will be amusing to read

Turkish delight to be revealed very soon

Happy day ahead.'

By the way unluckyone - yes the 3 May RNS was in English and while UKOG hid they hadn't donw any testing they were only trying to test the smell zone.

And it seems they still don't get it.

The Hoya primary and secondary target are not mentioned.

All they've got was a zone where there was an oil smell as they ground the oil out of a thief zone above the Hoya.

No 7" casing, no Hoya testing. Endless posts claiming these things were definite.

Don't worry their reliable flow of positives will now move on to the court cases (anyone who says it's a nailed on win for UKOG is a greenie), Loxley (anyone who says it's not as good as UKOG claim is a greenie), HH 3D (anyone who says it might destroy the target is a greenie) and HH-2z conversion (anyone who says it will only save £250,000 is a greenie - hold on that was UKOG - but they get everything wrong anyway.

You're famed for making stuff up

'Ukog sent a team out to Basur 3'

Any proof - no, did you forget this RNS:-

10 December 2021

UK Oil & Gas PLC ("UKOG" or the "Company")

Turkey: General operational update

'UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) ("the Company") announces that following its first covid permitted technical and management visit to its partner Aladdin Middle East's ("AME") offices in Ankara and to the company's Basur-Resan licence area in which UKOG holds a 50% non-operated interest, it is pleased to provide the following general update:-....'

'its first covid permitted technical and management visit to its partner Aladdin Middle East's ("AME") offices in Ankara and to the company's Basur-Resan licence area'

after the well was drilled in July 2021.

They did send a team out to scout out a site for Basur-4 - that went well.

G-Martin / JR90 / ells

You have to keep changing your account and deleting your history because of your ridiculous posting about outcomes, growth plans and SP.

I've kept my account for many years and would stand by every post whilst being constantly accused of having a supposedly 'negative' opinion of UKOG projects that often turns out to be more positive than the outcome - who's likely to have made wrong decisions, have a look at the share price graph, would I have held through the spikes that I've posted are unjustified because of likely failure - against those that claim success is guaranteed?

Maybe UKOG will somehow manage an equivocal RNS with promises of jam tomorrow - hence the highlighting of the possible but irrelevant Cetaceous source for a potential, imagined, deeper accumulation - certainly some posters are getting in line to repeat that claim of 'success'.

Have a look at the fantasy successes claimed by UKOG for the BB well when they stopped testing - jam 'tomorrow' left to go mouldy in the cupboard hoping everyone''s forgotten how good it was going to be.

BTW I will be pleased if Pinarova is successful because it might help avoid a fund raise in the near future - but my opinion is the risks were high and nothing that has been released by UKOG during drilling or testing suggests the well is a success.

Adrian,

You posted in your latest alias 'Lets not forget that David Lenigas wants to Farm in to Horsehill with £4.5 million to carry out 3D siesmic and drill Horsehill3 this year. Lets not forget a water injector well is being progressed onsite'

Let's not forget that DL, or rather PPP, hasn't got the money to shoot the 3D even - and that the wishing well is taking a long time to clean up - maybe you should get the post count up on the PPP board (from zero most days). Be classic DL, stuffing two companies at the same time. Shooting seismic that requires a raise and that seismic proving the target wasn't as hoped and HH-3 wasn't worth drilling.

Let's also remember UKOG latest NPV value of HH-1 of £0.8mm which included any expected improvement or savings.

What happened to the progress of the reconfiguring HH-2z - is there enough cash left to do it, with plans for more seismic in Turkey - which UKOG may not have control over timing, plus of course the pinarova testing is obviously not returning instant results and may be taking longer than expected to return a sniff of success. Oil studies, log interpretations, perforating crews, testing kit don't come cheap.

G-martin

Another strangely familiar poster only recently (re) joined, joining in on the desperate increase in ramping and insulting other posters who reasonably doubt that Pinarova will be successful, by claiming they're just stop oil Broadmoor criminals. Nice.

Perhaps an explanation of how much this Pinarova income source will be would show that it isn't just delusional, conspiracy b******s that seems to be the norm for a certain ilk of poster.

All these vague claims about gusher, and success without any predictions of what these certain, guaranteed, outcomes will be in terms of flow rates and recoverable oil - so far UKOG has shown about 100ml in a plastic bottle.

The desperate endless flinging around insults and claims of success when none has been RNS'd in the end is counter productive - it's like expecting anyone to believe a drunk outside a pub who'll sell you a tip on a horse for the price of a drink and shout insults if you don't believe him (or her).

Desperate making up fantasy tales when UKOG clearly set out what they planned to do next in the 3 May RNS :-

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation. The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth'

Selective tests in the oil smell zone, nothing about the Hoya.

Adrian has kindly described how long each test might take, and we know at least one selected zone had finished by May 16 as they were perforating again, unless it was a zone being reperforated. But no news of a gusher from that test then.

They also had a description of their working hypothesis which was that there might be oil in the Hoya, it may be the swab test of the secondary target and what they saw, or more likely didn't see, in the primary target put paid to that part of the hypothesis.

Adrian,

With slight modifications that excerpt has been in every Pinarova RNS since 13 March, it was a statement in the 11 January 2023 RNS.

Also explain where it says anything about testing the Hoya.

It was a working hypothesis that might well have already been disproved with regard to there being an 'underlying light oil accumulation of some 9 km² areal extent within the Hoya limestones, which lie between c. 300-645 metres below surface' by the well logging and what was observed during drilling and the swabbing test in the Hoya.

But badly worded when they spend days (apparently) agreeing the sording of the RNS with AME. It certainly 'fooled' me, and so badly worded they forgot to mntion that there was any sign of oil in the primary target.

We will see.

Adrian,

I've posted what UKOG planned to do, therefore I do not think they have run 7" casing as it wouldn't be needed.

Penguins you and XZZ098 want convince people you are oil experts? No - I post my analysis of what UKOG RNS and tweet and other research.

Do you want to try and convince people you're not Adrian who tweets as davethedrill1 / FOTH, you're not going the right way about it.

I suggest you read what the plan was - I notice you didn't quote the 3 May RNS which suggests it doesn't support your POV.

I'll do it again for you:-

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation. The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth'

So

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation.'

Where?

'The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth'

Why - because 'Electric logs over both the 9⅝ inch cased hole and 8½ inch open hole section have been acquired and the delivery of a final log interpretation is awaited'. but the field logs are instantly available and interpretable.

'One them doesnt like us posting it seems'

I don't care one of you will probably have every post deleted Monday - but I was pointing out the hypocrisy in your post this morning:-

'I expect an increase in deramping on here' - when you flooded, and still are flooding, the board with your posting. I

Now, just you, 48+ posts this weekend...... but can you explain what is wrong with being right time after time that UKOG's projects are not as good as UKOG make out - it doesn't make me a greenie, nimby and cetainly not a supporter of Finch - it just means that it's not that difficult to realise that UKOG feed their investors only one side of the story and work out what is likely to go wrong - and I invest and sell on that basis - as indeed you and 90% of the rampers who realise that, but keep quiet, do.

Adrian / youngandspecial (unluckyone - that's a clue)

Anyone reading the board today will have had to put up with your, and your new BFF, tens of 'sermons' all day long - time for a bit of reality - given unlucky's earlier post it's ironic that it looks like you're pulling unluckyone's strings.

But as regards Pinarova testing.

'They will have had to run a 7 inch cacing into the rest of the open hole to do this'

You're assuming several things.

That they want to test anything in the 8 1/2" hole, which wasn't in the forward plan as stated in the 3 May RNS. They already swab tested the secondary, uppermost Hoya and there was no mention of oil indications whilst drilling the primary target.

That assumption then means you assume they must have set the 7" casing, which wasn't in the forward plan as stated in the 3 May RNS. In fact the planned testing was only in the cased hole that corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface .

Earlier I posted:-

As you have explained how long each test sequence might take it's even more likely they have so far managed only 2 or 3 selective cased hole flow tests in the proposed zone, as they stated in the 3 May RNS:-

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation. The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth.'

Even your claim that they are into a series of successful tests begs the question why, if one of the previous test was a 'gusher', have they not got the good news out, even your scenario suggests that so far they have not been successful.

More likely that there hasn't been a 'gusher', or any significant flow of oil.

Maybe tomorrow we'll hear the results of whatever they've been doing. It will be interesting.

Adrian,

Between you and unlucky there have been 26 posts so far this weekend.out of 42 in total (43 with this one) - yet you post this rubbish:-

'I expect an increase in deramping on here'

In your recent posting you seem to 'expect' a lot of things but most of your posting is made up speculation about what AME and UKOG might have done that AME & UKOG didn't plan on doing in the 3 May RNS - which was test the uppermost zone that coincided with the oily smell.

As you have explained how long each test sequence might take it's even more likely they have so far managed only 2 or 3 selective cased hole flow tests in the proposed zone, as they stated in the 3 May RNS:-

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation. The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth.'

Even your claim that they are into a series of successful tests begs the question why, if one of the previous test was a 'gusher', have they not got the good news out, even your scenario suggests that so far they have not been successful.

More likely that there hasn't been a 'gusher', or any significant flow of oil.

Maybe tomorrow we'll hear the results of whatever they've been doing. It will be interesting.

As for 'I seem to have touched a nerve with two or three on here ;)'

Looking as your posting between you and unlucky it seems you're the ones getting nervous, trying to drown out reasonable comment with your stories of whatever you think might be happening in post after post.

I see you're lining up your next ramping theme - the appeals - just in case your expectation of gusher news fails to materialise.

' I will be topping up ;)'

Really?

More likely sell if there is a P&D.

The significance of Finch et al losing is that UKOG posters & tweeters won't be able to blame the lack of progress on greenies and nimbys - whereas it has always been because the Portland and Kimmeridge aren't, and never were, the transformational reservoirs that UKOG claimed.

It has taken years for this reality to be confirmed - with UKOG quietly slipping out contingent resources for the Kimmeridge at Horse Hill of 1.5mmbbls net 2C a couple of years ago (page 14, 2022 Annual Report though produced in June 2019 by RPS), and a NPV of £0.8mm for HH-1 (page 55). 'The net present value utilised an internally generated depletion curve that was independently reviewed. Costs were based on current costs less any anticipated savings...' so presumably takes into account the HH-2z conversion.

Loxley is yet to be played out but there are a number of red flags associated with the mapping and certainty of closure, the expected GWC being the same as Godley Bridge-1 and the probability of a single horizontal well producing at the expected (needed for the economics to work?) flow rate - should it get that far. Perhaps potential farminees have noticed the risks might remove the reward.

You posted:-

'In just a few weeks time should get not one, but TWO good results in court'

Posters frequently over estimate what news and how much that 'news' will affect the SP. Those most enthusiastic about others buying shares because the news is so good are those keen to sell on spikes based on 'news' not results.

Nobody expects the June HH and Loxley decisions to go against UKOG and the company is going ahead with preparations for both anyway. Neither decision will lead to drilling before 2024, and the HH drill will be after PPP (if they can fund it) acquire a 3D, process and interpret / map it - and assumes the 3D doesn't remove or diminish the target.

'They have already discovered oil. See the UKOG tweet' Which tweet - the one with a bit of oil in a plastic bottle full mostly with other fluid? As I posted earlier they got what they came for - an oil show, job done, rampers excited while UKOG remain silent.

They were 400m from the Kezer well which 'discovered' the oil - so not really a discovery. A commercial discovery is a wholly different level, and so far despite about 10 days of testing no 'news' of that.

As for 'Now they are testing the main deeper target' - you know this? - how? - because they had perforated something in the well on 16 May? - I presume you mean the 'primary' target which wasn't mentioned at all when they reached TD, having just drilled through it - no mention of cuttings with oil, no mention of oil smell, no mention of emulsion returning to surface when they set the 7" casing (if they set the 7" casing). The only testing mentioned was of the oil smell interval as in your excerpt from the 3 May RNS in your 11:00 tweet - nothing about testing the Hoya.

Because it was cheap and UKOG were desperate for news, any news - and they could be almost certain from the nearby Kezer well results, which had emulsion while setting casing and shows in the Hoya, to be able to report oil shows.

Oil shows reported.

Job done.

Except the emulsion wasn't from the Hoya, swab testing the zone that had cuttings with oil in produced no oil, and they've said nothing about the primary target amplitude anomaly after drilling through it.

But they might have set 7" casing and might be testing a layer other than the oily smell interval (that they were definitely testing on 11 May) - neither in the forward plan in the 3 May RNS.

Until UKOG deign to tell their owners what they've done and why they're doing it it's either guesswork based on a couple of tweets or an assumption they've done, and are doing what they RNS'd.

You posted:-

'The fact that according Niel on twitter they used 4.5 inch perforation guns means they have lined the well with 7 inch casing . They will test from the bottom up.'

So when UKOG tweeted that they were testing the 'oil smell zone' on 11 May, which was behind the 9 5/8" casing and therefore would have to be perforated, thatwas the deepest layer and then the next perforating was shallower in the 16 May tweet. I hope they didn't just run 7" casing in the 9 5/8" just for the perforating gun because then they would have to insert an even smaller liner if they wanted to test anything deeper.

Or are you saying they ran 7" casing to the full depth and the second test was deeper, presumably in the Hoya.

We need to know as on twitter you tweeted UKOG always run the deepest test first.

Not sure that the reporting would delay any annoncement that UKOG would like to make about success - failure maybe.

We'll see soon enough.

SRBS,

'Might need to wait longer, May be mid next week.'

Why? The interval they were testing on 11 May must have been finished with by the tweet on 16 May as that's when they were perforating again. If there had been anything positive in that first interval would UKOG not have RNS'd something - it was, as UKOG tweeted on 11 May:- 'over zone corresponding to strong oil odour and oil to surface'.

The forward plan in the 3 May RNS when they had their full logging suite available to decide on what to do next, even if a 'final' interpretaton was awaited, was:-

'Plans are now being made to run a conventional selective cased hole flow test operation. The proposed uppermost zone, from approximately 255-285 metres, corresponds to a 12-hour period of strong oil odour at surface and the recovery of light c. 38˚ API oil within fluids returned to surface from the same depth.'

They've not updated this forward plan where testing was entirely in the 9 5/8" cased hole. There's speculation they ran the 7" casing but no mention of a plan to do that in the 3 May RNS - and no mention of testing anything other than the 'oil smell' zone. The mention of 'selective' testing of this 'oil smell' zone in the RNS ties in with the 16 May tweet of 'Detailed testing continues'. So they have results from at least one test of the 'oil smell' zone, and a couple of days into testing another selected zone which, unless they've deviated from the 3 May plan, is also in the oil smell zone.

We shall see, beware FOMO just as much as FOBT (fear of being trapped).

Dilara,

'it took them even weeks to find a perforation gun.'

They were 'currently' looking for a perforating gun as of 3 May - by 11 May the tweet included 'testing continues' which isn't possible without the casing being perforated so they must have sourced the perforating kit in about a week or less.