Member Info for Penguins

Mirasol,

It might help if you read the thread, this was my first post:

'Seem to remember UKOG saying they anticipated the seismic acquisition would start in August :-

'As the joint venture's new seismic acquisition is scheduled to commence in August 2021, AME have advised that to ensure the sidetrack is optimally located, they plan to pause any drilling until after the acquisition and processing of the new seismic data over the sidetrack's envisaged trajectory.'

AME at latest scout meeting:-

'Acquisition of 116 km 2D seismic data is programmed in AR/AMEUKO/K/M47-b1,b2 exploration license and the project is contracted to Viking Geophysical Services. Expecting the contractor to start the acquisiton works by November 8th , 2021.'

I wonder if it has started yet?'

Ocelot,

You always assume all the bad news is in the SP - forgetting that lots may be anticipating good news keeping the price up hoping for the rare occurrance of it - and often the good news that has raised the SP (example in my previous post of the 'busy at Basur' tweet) is just a step on the way to failure.

The tweets were actually on consecutive days, 14th and 15th July.

The SP on the 14th rose from a mid of 0.17p to a high of 0.1825p (above the open offer) briefly.

They certainly helped the SP for a short while.

Were they just cynical tweets to help the open offer.

I had forgotten that during the open offer UKOG tweeted this twice on the same day:-

UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM
Jul 15
BUSY AT BASUR: A day in the life Basur-3 in SE Turkey … the road to Basur, site operations and a worn drill bit used to make 12.25” diameter hole

Both tweets were accompanied with pictures of the site - and each had a picture of a different drill bit.

I suppose the question is, with AME saying the suspended drilling was completed on 18th July, what were they so busy with - had they just managed to retrieve the stuck bit which UKOG failed to mention until August:-

'UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) has been informed by Aladdin Middle East ("AME"), the operator of the Basur-3 ("B-3") appraisal well (UKOG 50% interest) that the rig has performed a successful recovery or 'fishing' operation to free a directional drilling assembly stuck in its 12¼" hole section and return it safely back to surface.'

Ocelot,

It's by no means certain that that the seismic has started - 8 November was a predicted start date.

The data, once acquired, has to be processed and the extreme variations in elevation will be challenging (as well as for the acquisition) - so even if the acquisition has started it's still a long way off for interpretation and any agreement on the way forward.

Poindexter,

There's a delay relative to UKOG's expected date. Obviously we don't know whether that was the date AME were expecting on August 2nd.

Also in the scout report a 'completion' date for Basur-3 (presumably when operations stopped for the drilling suspemsion.

The date was 18 July - the internet must be very slow between Turkey and the UK, it took 2 weeks for UKOG to mention it to their shareholders.

Seem to remember UKOG saying they anticipated the seismic acquisition would start in August :-

'As the joint venture's new seismic acquisition is scheduled to commence in August 2021, AME have advised that to ensure the sidetrack is optimally located, they plan to pause any drilling until after the acquisition and processing of the new seismic data over the sidetrack's envisaged trajectory.'

AME at latest scout meeting:-

'Acquisition of 116 km 2D seismic data is programmed in AR/AMEUKO/K/M47-b1,b2 exploration license and the project is contracted to Viking Geophysical Services. Expecting the contractor to start the acquisiton works by November 8th , 2021.'

I wonder if it has started yet?

I thought the case was Sarah Finch vs SCC.

Not sure what the status regarding any costs for UKOGs 'help' would be.

From the Annual Review and Accounts for the year ended 30 September 2020 - dated 16 April 2021:-

'Consequently, as CP's generally require around a minimum of one year's stable production history to adequately capture and predict the longer term decline performance of a well (Horndean's performance, as above, demonstrates the importance of a year-long decline period), it was decided that the best practice was to assess reserves only when a more robust and fully representative decline curve analysis could be undertaken. The Company will thus wait until the next reporting period to calculate the field's reserves following the first full year of stable production.'

UKOG have said stable production was achieved in January 2021 ('Early results are encouraging, with stable oil and water influx levels achieved by early 2021') so CPR presumably after January next year - although there have already been several predictions by UKOG of when CPRs would be done - and the conditions required weren't met so we shall see.

CP = Competent Person

Reserves can only be 'booked' if they have been calculated to SPE standards which means non-company Competent Person(s) as there's usually several - covering different disciplines - usually in a consultancy - eg Xodus.

Wizard,

I'm still waiting to hear what has actually been delayed by the Sarah Finch appeal.

The drilling of HH-1z stopped being mentioned before the original challenge.
HH-2z failing put paid to any further wells being drilled until they understood the reservoir.
They chose not to dual complete HH-1. They were planning to convert HH-2z to an injector in the spring, presumably unworried by the court case - that was delayed by waiting for EA permission.
They performed a workover last year of HH-1 and recently peformed work on the site to comply with EA conditions.

Looking forward to next week UKOG announcing all these delayed activities

to be told what the Sarah Finch case has actually held up.

Wizard, since 2018 there have been several promises of a follow up CPR for Horse Hill but the conditions that UKOG suggested needed to be fulfilled for them to bother to get one done have never happened as each target fell away.

The latest was a year of stable flow from HH-1(ie presumably maintaining an average of about 100bopd - though it has dropped since January) that year isn't up yet.

If UKOG are running scared of an appeal against an SCC decision bought by an individual then an obvious tactic is to keep appealing the decision for the next 20 years.

Of course it's complete rubbish - just like still thinking the numbers presented in the hey day of the hype had any basis in reality. UKOG had RPS produce contingent resources for the Kimmeridge at HH in June 2019. Contingent resources have a much lower level of audit but even these were (net) 1C 0.3mmbbls, 2C 1.4mmbbls, 3C 5.2mmbbls (page 22 of the latest Annual eport and Accounts)

Adding the Portland and Kimmeridge together makes about 0.5 million tonnes 2C resources, not 300 million tonnes. Every tanker that leaves eats into these resources - luckily there's not many.

I hate to break this to youbut sometimes 'swampy' protesters exagerrate the problem to stir up local nimbys, this time by using the same out of date figures you like.

UKOG's volume is the 9th highest representing about £30,000 worth of trades. Doesn't sound so great when you put a cash amount to it.

It helps having a mid price of 0.12p. I'm sure a few weeks ago we were assured (not by Ocelot- that was months ago and he thought 0.9p was right for the end of May) the SP was moving the next week into the 0.14s and there would be positive news.

Strange when the OP is so high, the gas price is so high and COP26 is over and (the anticipated) damp squib.

All things that UKOG has no control over certain posters concentrate on and unlikely to make much difference to UKOG because UKOG isn't producing much oil, and no gas for sale now or for the foreseeable future.

Equally valid to suggest Adrian told you to post - but I think you'll find that it wasn't 'someone', it was a poster banned for repeated unacceptable behaviour on a moderated board - and he's admitted 'sanitiser' was him.

You signed up to the rules, I signed up to the rules, Adrian signed up to the rules - but for some reason he thinks they don't apply to him - and apparently despite him tweeting this sort of stuff:-

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1 Oct 19, 2020
#uk. If you add the total Losses of http://Sakmdersok.ms Rope A Dope four . They would top £250,000 easy!
The Doppy four : WealdSpoilers Doppy Tony PostMan Pat And Johnny Logan JR
How do I know ? I've met all of them over a long period of time at HH and they told me .Dave :)'

'The doppy four'..........Yet you (postman pat) and pboo (wealdoilers) rush to support him, does he have some hold over you? - surely over the years, even without the trash talking, you must have noticed how wrong he's been, time after time his accounts being deleted has certainly done him a favour - removing abusive or ridiculous ramping tweets and posts.

Then again:-

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1
Apr 13 Replying to @Backwoo17019176
Pingo is smart. Trys not to break rules. And to his her credit is not rude very often if atcall.
But yes I'm amazed LSE admin haven't banned him. Hope they don't . Very smart. And right in most of what Penguin Pingo says . But of course that matters not when LSE wants you gone.'

Don't suppose it'll be there long and I certainly don't want an endorsement from FOTH and of course now according to him I'm an evil swampy - but it just shows how unstable his opinions are.

Strange, from FOTH on twitter,

'#UKOG BB. Funny the Swampies get me banned off @LondonSouthEast yet they never stop talking about me .'

Well I suppose putting a penguin icon at the end of almost every one of your tweets reminds evryone to have a look at a sensible account of what's going on.

But the reason posters talk about you is not because they're swampies it's your many visits to this 'BB' under different disguises (that you deny until you're banned and then on twitter - where you've also been banned - whinge about being banned on LSE) talking complete rubbish endlessly but justified not by facts but 'imo' .

But those that have posted an alternative narrative to that put out by UKOG, and exaggerated by rampers like FOTH when he's not deramping, aren't swampies - they were right.

BBJ - bit desperate trying to P&D based on Sarah Finch's appeal being rejected when it stands no chance in succeeding - I suppose like wizard you think UKOG aren't doing anything at HH because of it rather than they are waiting for permissions and then testing the water disposal because if it doesn't work HH is stuffed.

But to paraphrase:- 'Look at BBJ pretending that he isn't Adrian'

At least one tweeter's twigged what's going on even if the deluded rampers still cling on to the 'dream':-

'#UKOG Looks like site has been reduced to the kit needed for small scale production.'

The PW purchase to save OPEX was nearly 18 months ago. How much were UKOG not saying (and still not saying) about the Portland and Kimmeridge that the equipment bought was 'the development' not those plans submitted to SCC.

Ahh,

BBJ,

Didn't fruitextract (FOTH) post exactly the same thing last week. Are you copying your homework, or is it something else? This was part of my reply then:-

'If the Portland and Kimmeridge could have started at 6-700bopd why didn't they dual completed HH-1 as they planned?'

I also replied then they won't commingle Kimmeridge and Portland production but not because the Portland was producing water - they planned two ESP and seperate completions. As the Portland was flowing dry oil in January the water wasn't an issue then anyway. Nevertheless water will still be produced from the Portland whether it's tankered away or injected via HH-2z - the seperation is performed on the surface, and it will be the same process regardless of where it's going so this doesn't make sense:- 'I dont think the Kimmeridge will be switched back on until the HH2z injector well is completed. They wont want to commingle Kimmeridge dry oil and mixed it in with with the contaminated Portland oil and water.'

Anyway let's get back to the Kimmeridge in HH-1 - so you're saying that the 3,504bbls of oil produced between the Kimmeridge being put back on production on 18 December and then shut-in (from UKOG figures) was produced up to Xmas because the staff got Xmas and New Year off? so UKOG got it wrong that the average between 18 December and 23 December was 301bopd? But they don't stop operations for Xmas and New Year for anything - especially if they're producing the volumes of dry oil you seem to think.

As for drill or drop the HH-1 intervention was this:- 'Furthermore, upon establishment of stable oil flow from HH-2z, a short HH-1 intervention is also planned to further optimise both Kimmeridge and Portland test production from the vertical wellbore.'

Well stable flow was never established from HH-2z and instead UKOG waited to change over production when they were ready to produce the Portland for an interference test with HH-2z and UKOG haven't returned to the Kimmeridge since.

As you say it's unfortunate that adrianwfire's tweets are no longer available (getting banned on twitter quite a feat!) so have to depend on someone mentioning his tweets - but I suspect the 'no flare for 5 days' on the 14th January sounds about right given that something dire must have happened to the Kimmeridge.

You're just making stuff up, next you'll be saying you've contacted davethedrill1.

BBJ,

As I say there's a reason they didn't dual complete.

Yes the crane arrived according to this board 13 Jan:-

'13 Jan '20
They got the crane in to work on HH-2z today, why wouldn't they do the work now , this is just wasting money the cost of getting the crane in and its not in use'

This would have been based on a tweet but the comments are wrong - the crane was to work on HH-1.

If you have any other suggestions perhaps do a bit of research and give the location.

As for ' Your kimmeridge figures of bopd are to low ' what's your justification for that - don't like it? imo?

As assuming 301bopd was for 18th to 23rd Decamber 2019 (say 1204bbls) and the Kimmeridge was flowed until 8th Jan then the average from 24th Decmber to 8th Jan is less than 140 bopd.

Bigbadjohn,

Yes I did see it (see my post 12:33) - but as you say it doesn't mention the date the Kimmeridge was shut in.

But no, I don't think the Kimmeridge was shut in at Xmas.

Unfortunately the reports from that time are sparse but the last tanker reported on here seen before Jan 16 was on Jan 10, and mention of 3 tankers that week. Then there's this tweet:-
TrollHunter2 @MMunch3
Jan 14, 2020 @Share_Talk
don't have a clue as usual. "Not that we know, but looking at the images
@Adrianwfire comments, no flaring for past 5 days'

So maybe stopped flowing January 8th. If they started midday December 18 and finished midday 8 Jan that's 21 days, average 167bopd - we're still way below the pre-xmas average of 301bopd.

Anyway whatever it managed they didn't dual complete the well and haven't done anything with the Kimmeridge since.

Thanks , but that shutdown was covered in the UKOG 27/11/2019 RNS which I quoted and UKOG also gave an exact figure for Kimmeridge production up until then. Just noticed an extra '5' was added to the 49,276bbls in my post though - doh - though it wasn't what was used in my calculations.

Kimmeridge production restarted on 18 December 2019 as was stated in UKOG's 23/12/19 RNS (see my post 09:51 today) but they haven't given the date in January the Kimmeridge was shut in prior to the recompletion to test, then produce, the Portland.

Don't know if the total figure of Kimmeridge production had been previously mentioned but it was in the 15/01/21 RNS but the last time it was flowed was January 2020.

I've just checked and the Kimmeridge shut in happened before January 16th 2020 when the Portland was restarted (RNS 28/01/20). So no indication as to when the Kimmeridge was shut in but obviously prior to 16th January.

Maybe some time between 10th and 12th (4 to 6 days to recomplete HH-1) which does increase the average to maybe 150 odd if the 10th is right - but still suggests decline to a very low number starting at 354bopd in December 2019.

Unfortunately I didn't check when I saw this tweet:

'John Rogan @JohnRogan9
·Jan 22, 2020
Replying to @Tony46141512
The Kim is where the oil is coming from at the moment.'

First sentence should b:- 'Did a bit more digging and although UKOG don't mention the production specifically during the final period of the Kimmeridge ewt prior to it being shut in in January 2020'

not January 2019