Member Info for Penguins

The Resan field which is adjacent to Resan / Basur and operated by Aladdin Middle East has been described by UKOG as a geological and producing lookalike. Production is from the Mardin so a definite analogue to Resan / Basur rather than a field producing something approaching tar by the Syrian border.

UKOG has declined to give any details of E Sadak, just a few tidbits, but according to AME it produced an average of 525bopd in September 2021 from about 10 wells - of which one was put on production in May and another in August - production data over the years has shown that previous wells put on production have declined rapidly.

In Resan / Basur currently seismic data is being acquired in challenging territory during winter - processed data expected Q1 2022 to enable a target decision for Basur-3S.

Adrian has previously claimed that they have turned the pump on and the flare when he's appeared. Was that true?

Did you stay for hours watching the flare? For instance if they only flow the well for 12 hours then shut in for 12 hours the rate is going to be about 20,000scf/day for 100bopd average.

UKOG have never detailed what the intermittent production schedule is so turning up and seeing a new flare, with massively smaller funnel and then making purely subjective claims about it without even mentioning how much smaller the equipment is just trying to influence the share price enabling Adrian's (rather poor) trading strategy.

Tanker trick, pipeeline absurdity, Shell takeover - you and Adrian have just about covered every old ramp that hasn't come true.

Adrian,

Tanker trick time, I think that's probably a maximum assuming no oil at either end.

Why can't you wait for UKOG to tell us the good news - is it because the last current flow rate they mentioned was more than 300bopd, in March 2020. We have to rely on OGA figures - and although 3 months out of date I would wait for those before believing someone who lies to get on this board, and then lies when he's on it.

last October = October 2020

Ocelot,

Working 'overtime?

Is anyone there all the time?

I suspect ibug's right that the large flare was having problems with small amounts of gas with the large funnel. But for the smaller flare 10,000scf of gas is still quite a lot assuming around 100bopd, and we don't know how long the flow vs shut in periods are.

As Adrian is so keen to point out the Kimmeridge has much more dissolved gas. Previously when the larger flare was being used the same volume of oil could produce up to 3 times the gas so modest production may well have made it light up.

Suggesting production has increased when UKOG have said nothing, which is normally reserved for bad news, is unlikely. Maybe UKOG will give a detailed update on production from HH as they've not since it started in March 2020.

UKOG RNS'd the optimisation works, which were production related, last October - nothing much changed except production went down gradually.

Adrian

We all understand you want HH to be producing more oil (so does everyone else) but looking at a new flare that is massively smaller and then subjectively claiming that HH is producing more oil.

The 'unseen' tankers card is being played again and you have offered calculations of bopd based on assumptions about tankers that cannot be verified - ie how much oil is on site at any given time.

Previously following these sort of claims we've waited with bated breath 3 months later only to find either nothings changed much, or production has gone down.

Even after the reperforatiing and reconfiguration of the down hole production tubing October last year to optimise production ,when some posters were claiming production would increasemassively (not you, you were deramping) it didn't - but now, following some surface works to enable unmanned operation and some HSE requirements it's claimed that these works improved production.

Are you implying I'm blind when I can clearly see that the new flare's about a third of the height and half the diameter (about a quarter of the cross sectional area) of the old one - and I'm still wondering why the oil heater being used is 'news'.

If I'm blind..........

Adrian,

If I had a short I'd be rich - maybe in the Caribbean with SS - why wouldI short at this price when it's been up at 10p - only problem is no one has proved shorting UKOG is possible - it's just a lazy way of responding to posters whose opinion 'believers' etc. don't agree with (like accusing posters of being swampies etc.), but often don't have a clue about what's going on.

Yes six years - have a look at the SP chart, yes there's been spikes, some lasting a long time while UKOG delayed releasing what was happening, but most caused by manipulation - that's your game, but you can only cry wolf so many times.

Trade the spikes fella - but that's your game as well - I just like being consistent in my opinion, I don't swing with my position - that's your game.

So the only thing that's likely to happen in the nearish future is water injection - it had better work otherwise you'll be waiting months for anything else to happen - rather than permission/s to do something - and it might be a while before the water injection happens after permission is granted.

R,

so how much gas as presumably you're responding on behalf of Adrian's tag team?

and what's M's issue I've been struck down with - common sense?

Don't know what happened to that sentence, should have been:-

'This is a new flare, much shorter, probably smaller diameter - the exhaust gases have far further to travel against the background of trees, I'm fascinated at your collective ability to detect an increase in gas being flared from a different flare.'

I'd add also possibly more concentrated from a smaller diameter funnel.

So are you agreeing that comparing these very different flare stacks is problematic - you've ducked giving an estimate of how much gas, or are you leaving that to the 'boss'.

and why are you still linking the oil heater's exhaust?

Adrian,

just stop the pretence - it just looks stupid Monday morning when you're whining about being banned - because you're banned - and like the government ministers sent out to cover BJ's back your tag team just look sullied.

Is this this rubbish about HH because you bought in hoping the directors would buy shares - they didn't
You've been ramping the EA permission for HH-2z conversion for ages - still waiting (tweet on Sep 11:- I Bet SS has the EA nod already pal)
You've been ramping that the Loxley dicision was soon, then very soon - not yet, I see you've replaced your 22 September 'soon' with a December 6 soon (nearly 11 weeks later) - is anyone fooled?
You even tried the fantasy that the challenge to HH planning permission would be decided the day of the hearing.

Now there's a new flare - oo look it's bigger than before (except the flare is smaller), the tanker trick, the pipeline absurdity - and you think others look desperate with your scattergun posts - 20 so far today.

I say to Adrian's and his tag team - prove there's more gas beimg flared. Not just a subjective 'opinion' - give us the numbers - when HH was producing 100bopd in May daily gas was about 10,000scf. So what's it producing now - give us a number that we can compare with December's production. We'll have to wait until 1st April (how appropriate) but it will come.

This is a new flare, much shorter, probably smaller diameter - the exhaust gases have far further to travel against the a day, I'm fascinated at your collective ability to detect an increase in gas being flared from a different flare.

As for your 123bopd - haven't you often tweeted that SS holds back oil - how do you know it's 7 days production, not 8 or even 9 or more - there's sufficient storageto save up a few days production.

So is that 'smell' your desparation having to sneak on here to post endlessly and rally your tag team in support of your rerun of past ramps - that were wrong every time previously - because your 'investment' you want to sell is underwater.

Exactly, what about that one.

Isn't that the oil heater exhaust? So tell us what we're meant to be impressed with - it looks like steam drifting out, or at least water vapour in the cold air.

The original flare stack was capable of flaring 800,000scf/day according to the air quality report in the planning application)

At 100bopd and about 100scf/barrel that's about 10,000scf/day - a bit more than 1 percent of the original planned volume.

What we don't know is during the periods of production what the flow rate is as to maintain pressure and restrict water production the well is shut in regularly.

So yes something has changed they've installed a flare more in keeping with the modest volumes they're producing, and not expecting a massive upturn any time soon. Perhaps the original flare struggled burning small volumes of gas?

HH1AN2,

'nobody telling you anything other than have a look at the video'

Really

'maybe back in the kimmeridge?'

According to Adrian it's a new flare stack - could that be why it looks different?

So any justification for this 'maybe' apart from a subjective opinion about the flare. Y'know extensive work on the well - or is that like the tankers you might not see, but 'could have been because you weren't there. Perhaps they're producing more oil during shorter periods but the average production might stay the same.

According to Adrian it's a new flare stack - could that be why it looks different.

As for the pipeline Adrian - yes - but it has nothing to do with Horse Hill - it's for refined product and presumably as UKOG have never even suggested it as an option (probably because they know more about likely future production than you) it would require far greater throughput guaranteed for long enough to be an economic option for the infrastructure required - so even more than UKOG predicted with their massively overoptimistic tanker predictions even if it was possible to use it.

Where I live Virgin's fibre network cabling passes nearby but nobody can get Virgin media.

As for August's and the following months production- we'll see. Hope you don't all end up looking like SS's accomplices in the tanker trick, again.

and yet.....not me saying it.

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1
Putting pictures of tankers up and flare stack has no impact on the SP. It hasn't for a couple of years.'

and I agree - but how many times have these false dawns been claimed because of the flare or tankers?

So you think SS is keeping quiet about it? More likely nothing to brag about. How often have you depended on the lack of information from UKOG to sread your make believe

Pipeline, Kimmeridge production, and now works to allow unmanned production and HSE improvements = higher production?

LB,

Not me saying it's broken - I suppose the tweet I've quoted is a lie? That FOTH can't be trusted - he posts all sorts of rubbish doesn't he?

But talking about a 'tag team' when HH1AN2 and roganjt have suddenly started multi-posting when you're around!!!!! - even ocelot's joined in! Been pleading to the (what was it you called them?) the d***y four, well 2 turned up.

As for the flare stack (and tankers) - we've heard it all before but the OGA figures haven't ever shown a significant change except down, I suppose we'll have to wait 3 months to find out - if for the first time ever UKOG keep quiet about good news rather than bad - though strangely even the good news has only had a short life before being overtaken by bad.

LB,

Firstly it would be major down hole work to change over production from Portland to Kimmeridge - and as they passed up the opportunity to dual complete the well presumably because it wasn't worth it for Kimmeridge production - I'm certain that UKOG aren't producing from the Kimmeridge.

But then we have been told exactly what they did, immediately after finishing:-

RNS 20/9/21 - 'UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that it has completed a planned two-week production facility upgrade at its 85.635% owned Horse Hill oil field. Works included modifications to prepare the site for automated 24-hour continuous production operations, together with the installation of the first tranche of permanent facility equipment required under the Health and Safety Executive's Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) regulations.'

So the flare stack is working - at least it means they were producing oil - but.....

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1Feb 3
Replying to @JohnRogan9
What's gets me is that me and Pete,Pboo , Wealdy, got on at the time of those pics.. He and I new the HH flare stack was broke hence the amazing flame pics'

Earlier today:-

'once the water reinjector well is up and running other wells could be producing 1000s of barrels of oil a day'

I suppose other wells in the North Sea are producing 1000's of barrels a day - as for Horse Hill they aren't planning horizontals and HH- 1 declined from 'more than 300bopd' rapidly before the water even started - and the injector won't even be replacing all the liquid extracted.

As for the next wells, whenever they are drilled, they're still appraisals, testing the new map as well as everything else - will the the new map be as wrong as the last one? so still lots of risk.

Oh no not the pipeline fantasy again - but I'd be surprised if there's enough production for UKOG to build even some of the production facility they have permission for. I posted some time ago that was the equipment purchase 'it' as far as production facilities - I may have been right.

See you've mustered the troops for support.

Not running scared, just not off my trolley. Seems to be the latest mud to sling whenever a reasonable point of view is expressed.

Shell produces about 3.7mmboe a day. So on current figures HH would 'replace' less than a day's production - though often contingent resources get revised downwards when a proper CPR is done and has to be justified by data.

As for all the other UKOG acreage haven't you noticed that even 'brass neck' Steve hardly mentions the Kimmeridge. I'm sure they still have hopes but not in the billions of barrels. March next year is fast approaching and BB site retention is up for planning re-application - that will be the first test, although site restoration looms (£1mm?) if it isn't extended.

As for the Portland HH appears to be an anomaly but only in initial flow rates - once in production oil flow rates rapodly drop. Injection might help a bit but the days of 720 to 1080 bopd from a horizontal (horizontals no longer mentioned - too risky?) or even 362bopd (rather than a half hour initial flow) are long gone.

Nice production for a small private company - a plc with over 16 billion shares and no other production, it's still just keep the lights on money even if injection works - Shell never.

LB - Interesting that UKOG now interpret Collendean Farm to be in the same fault block as Horse Hill-1 - although there's no new seismic data and HH-2z was the other side of HH-1. It does give them a data point that enables a lot more up-dip closure to target HH-3 at - let's hope the new interpretation is right.

Wizard,

I'll have a fraction of what you're on.

'Shell would be more likely want to buy Horse Hill'

Funniest post of the day, well done.

I think you should bear in mind UKOG is shipping 'spare' casing out to Turkey.

One day you'll realise you've been mislead - most have realised that the past expectations have been superceded - just UKOG haven't got round to admitting the current reality.

They've decided the Xodus 2018 CPR contingent resources for HH are OK (1.5mmbbls P50) despite a new map and ewt since then, and RPS (external consultancy) calculated 1.6mmbbls (P50) contingent resources for the Kimmeridge in June 2019, though only made public (quietly) in the last annual report (about 1% of oil a sq km).

Forget the crazy figures for 'OIP' per square kilometre - they can't get it out - the next test will be updip of HH-1 (if the map is right) - are they hoping that maybe the secret for the Kimmeridge is it might work better in closure.

As for 45% recovery from the Portland - requires full voidage replacement, very unlikely and it looks like they're only going to recover some of the oil from the sweet spot - which is 35 ft overall - but considerably less good poro/perm - but then there's the problem of unpredictable multiple fractures filled with water just waiting to be liberated by another well.

Interesting how history gets rewritten:-

Todsy's RNS:- 'As stated in August 2021 the Company's position in which it preferred to drill B-3S before the conclusion of the seismic programme remains unchanged'

August RNS:- 'We concur with AME that the most prudent course of action is to pause commencing the sidetrack until new modern seismic can be incorporated to further de-risk drilling and help achieve our objective.'

Anyway weren't AME the 'experts' with 60 years experience and knowledge?

Otherwise no figures for 'progress' of the seismic programme and avoiding mentioning when ir started (not August which UKOG said in the August RNS) - so how much of the programme has been acquired, and what was the proposed size of the programme.

Wasn't one of the selling points of this deal that AME had a rig/s

A lot of waffle, vague dates and information that's been held back for months.

Just once it would be nice if UKOG actually owned up to getting something wrong and explained what happened, then have for the failure of the licence application - but months late.

Ocelot,

In July 2020 the well and seismic was going to be starteded that year - well started nearly a year later. Seismic - who knows? Government permission fpr the farm in was in January 2021.

Licence application RNS'd by UKOG in December - haven't found when AME applied for them - apparently still not granted - although we know TPAO were awarded them ealier this year.

But UKOG has permission for 4/5 more wells at HH - SS has never explained what happened to drilling for the huge volumes of oil in the Kimmeridge they claimed previously, perhaps because they sneaked out a figure for contingent resources of 1.6mmbbls in the last final results - though more than the Portland's 1.5mmbbls (both gross P50).

They could have probably drilled another well at HH for the $7mm raised for Turkey.

Ocelot,

Very interesting, but any idea how much gas UKOG will be selling in January 2022? January 2023? January 2024?

Almost certainly none, and probably the same in 2025 - it takes time to build the infrastructure needed to export gas.

Beyond this it depends on commercial gas being found at Loxley - which will require further drilling and permissions.