Member Info for Penguins

Ozzy,

They clearly say that they are only agreeing acquiring seismic first for partnership harmony. I see no reason to suppose that has changed just because AME as operator control the timing - which is all they are reporting in the later RNS.

Ozzy,

did you forget this in the 10 December 2021 RNS:-

'As stated in August 2021 the Company's position in which it preferred to drill B-3S before the conclusion of the seismic programme remains unchanged. However, in the interests of JV harmony we will support the operator's position and forward plan.'

Pretty clear - no'twisting' required.

But I can't find 'As stated in August 2021 the Company's position in which it preferred to drill B-3S before the conclusion of the seismic programme'

I did find this though (RNS 2 Aug 2021):-

'We concur with AME that the most prudent course of action is to pause commencing the sidetrack until new modern seismic can be incorporated to further de-risk drilling and help achieve our objective.'

Hmmm - perhaps you can help?

Ocelot,

most telling:-

'I suspect that the information available to you is also available to the partners and, in particular, to AME,'

exactly, yet UKOG 'partner' doesn't seem to want to mention it to their owners.

'AME, who possess considerably more experience of operating in SE Turkey than yourself or, indeed, any of us'

Is true but the 'experience' you mention didn't avoid AME abandoning the 12 1/4 hole section and then having to wait for seismic to be shot to define a target when it's exactly what they ended up doing at E Sadak.

Did UKOG push for drilling before the seismic which was a mistake, and seem to now be into detailed well planning of the sidetrack before the seismic is available - perhaps that reflects UKOG's opinion of the seismic interpretation - not worth having?

SR,

Not sure you 'get it'.

I have often given my opinion of UKOG's projects. Most of the positive things that posters mention are either what UKOG have said or it's the permissions rather than the outcome.

UKOG have not and do not give a balanced view on their projects though - and perhaps that's not surprising. A balanced view would be a CPR which has been promised a few times since 2018 but never commissioned.

In the past the production downside of HH-2z was actually 0bopd, they gave a predicted range starting at 720bopd.

HH-1 they said would produce 362bopd initially and avoided mentioning decline, in October when it was expected that production would return to an average of around 100bopd average production was about 63bopd they even avoided mentioning it was producing water for months in 2020.

They have been evasive about what the water injection might achieve - and there are different interpretations of what they have said - but rarely (ever?) has a positive interpretation of an RNS turned out to be correct. They don't give current production figures of oil or water from HH.

UKOG had a report about HH Kimmeridge done in 2019 by RPS. In 2021 they included the contingent resources from that report in resources but no mention of anything else in that report.

Cashflow is unlikely to be sufficient to pay for drilling HH-3 and HH-4 any time soon so more cash raising likely for any further wells.

Turkey was said to be transformational yet when the flow rates of the lookalike AME operated producing field were found in scout reports (UKOG has never mentioned the field, or individual well, production figures) they were poor, although to be fair the potential of doubling UKOG's overall HH-1 oil production could be considered transformational, just not what pi understood. Any income from a success at Basur will be ploughed into drilling the next well - it's possible that is all the cashflow will do - pay for the next well, and it's unlikely to be sufficient to avoid having to fund raise to pay for Resan-6 if drilled soon after.

Loxley as I posted was discovered in the 1980's. Nearby and far appraisal wells drilled, the nearby appraisal was sidetracked and still failed. There are difficulties mapping the structure's closure due to depth conversion. Whilst Xodus wouldn't calculate a GIIP in the 2018 CPR they did perform a study on UKOG's mapping from which pi have been fed the contingent resources, but nothing else. Another well that needs to be paid for.

Arreton-3 is an appraisal of an oil show which was tested in Arreton-2 - UKOG are depending on that test being beset by a mechanical problem. Another well to be paid for.

BB site PP comes up for renewal this March. No sign of applying for an extension.

The positives are basically, in my opinion, less likely than the negatives - but that's the oil business- but you wouldn't know it from UKOG RNS.

SR

Can you?

The offshore fields have already been discovered and defined - for example Rosebank has multiple (successful) appraisal wells including horizontals (and no doubt 3D sesimic) and has recoverable reserves of 325 Mmbbl of crude oil & condensate and 260 bcf of natural gas reserves - a significant' resouce of national importance, expected peak production of 100mmcfd.

Loxley is an appraisal of a 1980's poorly defined gas discovery and already has 2 failed appraisals.

Ibug,

They're abandoning the 12 1/4" section, RNS 02/08/21:-

'the existing 12¼" hole section being considered unsuitable for onwards drilling.'

The hole is cased to 367m but how deep the target is they haven't said - probably because they didn't know.

Ocelot,

TPAO seem to drill a lot of 'finder' wells, slim hole, minimal casing, small sites requiring smaller rigs, probably reflecting their view of chance of success - coming back to drill a well capable of being produced if the well is successful.

Whereas at Basur huge site, big rig, full casing programme designed to produce if successful but subsurface seemingly poorly understood.

To cut costs UKOG is sending casing to Turkey - aren't UKOG going to drill any more UK wells or did they buy so much casing expecting endless success before fully understanding what they had (or didn't have).

Ian,

What's happened since October to change that? Why is the figure so much lower than the months before the surface works were carried out to enable 24/7 operations and for HSE requirements.

Can't believe that UKOG willingly reduced the cashflow when the average OP was over $80 during October.

If only UKOG would keep investors informed and comment on current oil, water and gas production figures there wouldn't be so much speculation when the released figures show a dramatic drop.

Whilst HH-1 has been in production UKOG the only rate they have ever referred to in RNS was the initial production rate of more than 300bopd which was in March 2020, and have never mentioned the water production rates, in fact hardly mentioned the water from HH-1 at all.

I can understand why UKOG believe in only RNSing 'good' news., except when they have no option, but when they know that in 3 months time production figures will be released it might help investors understand what's behind figures such as those just released - there may well be a reasonable operational explanation, but it may be an indication of a significant problem with the reservoir.

Of course there will be those that know UKOG only operate in the interests of investors so see no need to worry...........

Ibug,

Yes, something happened that UKOG disguised with averages and initial rates - unfortunately the maths blind didn't realise the implications of a starting rate considerably higher than an average rate during a period of testing.

I doubt even UKOG messed up every test at BB and HH - indeed they drilled a sidetrack at BB to deliver a perfect series of tests, but didn't bother to deepen HH-2 to obtain more information at HH about the Kimmeridge.

A telling statement about HH-4 was it was planned to be drilled updip although the Kimmeridge play was meant to be free of a necessity of something as mundane as closure - BB was deliberately drilled where there was no closure - any clues?

As for the 2020 workover, whilst intended to optimise Portland production according to OGA numbers production dropped.

TH2,

you're right he was one of the team 'taken in' to the site and when he was in deramping mode and boy was he unhappy with SS.

Some posters don't need to have been invited briefly onto the HH site for a PR briefing to know about onshore well or production sites, and certainly know hanging around taking pictures of what's happening on the surface is not the whole story.

I'm surprised FOTH isn't on twitter saying there's posters on LSE claiming there's no oil.

Erm just checked he did it last week - on here. Must be psychic - or was it psychotic?

Ian

have you been roped into this charade?

Apologies,

As mirasol has pointed out UKOG have not said that drilling is planned to start in Q1 2022, though they haven't said it won't I suppose.

Most companies decide to wait to see what any new seismic shows before deciding to drill.

But first they drilled without the new seismic they said was expected to be shot late 2020 and they were going to acquire before drilling - as would be a normal sequence of events.

Then when the drill got stuck and a redrill was requiredin July they RNS'd that waIting for the seismic was necessary.and it was anticipated to start in August 2021.

Then in December they RNS'd they didn't really want to wait for the seismic to drill the sidetrack but agreed to for partnership harmony - and the lines specific to Basur-3 and Resan--6 were being shot first.

Now the drilling is 'planned' to restart in Q1 2022. 2 months to process, interpret, Including incorporating the reprocessed data, map and agree a target and then mobilise a rig is fairly tight but certainly doable - though it seems there is some friction in the partnership and agreeing a target may not be trivial.

Let's hope the seismic actually helps - looking at the example in AME's annual report the previous data was pretty poor - seems like UKOG thought it wasn't worth shooting in the first place and drilling ahead without a worthwhile map the way to go.

Perhaps the reason they are pausing acquiring what has become 'phase 2' is 1) money is tight 2) because it isn't very good 3) if B-3S and R-6 are dry / sub economic it'll fund the penalty for not fulfilling the work programme as no more wells will be drilled anyway.

Leewayne,

You might have been unhappy with FOTH's deramping, but what you complained about in your post from April 2020 was his ramping:-

'You are correct, I feel stupid now but I got carried away with all his ramping, I have lost a lot of money, when I was going to pull out around 1.8, 1.5, 1.3 I always stayed in because of his pics and ramping,'

I suppose you want others to suffer the same fate as you -'he’s back on our side now so I have no problem'

There's a few posters here who spend their whole time criticising those that have for years had a negative view of the company, but they rarely, if ever, post anything about UKOG while hanging on the coattails and supporting uber rampers - who by definition (see UKOG share chart) have regularly got it wrong.

I see ozzy has confirmed his status as a coattails criticiser of other posters.

It isn't deramping - it's pointing out the likely outcomes that UKOG 'forget' to mention.

The SP the day of that post was 0.275p. If you think the SP will now rise, you could have sold then and bought nearly 3 times as many 'golden tickets' today.

Just to be clear:-

'except for the directors share purchase months later which didn't shift the SP anyway because it was a derisory amount that FOTH still thought indicated SS earned £120,000 when the amount indicated a net salary that, before deductions assuming some extras was a gross salary of probably over £300,000.

Boasts about selling at 8.6p whilst probably posting about the £1 party - and mocks anyone who bought in at that level.

Claims he sold out in 2020 - then bought in, after months of sl**ging off SS / Horse Hill / Loxley / Arreton and Turkey to get the SP down - on the misguided hope of various bits of 'news' would raise the SP which he then constantly tweeted (and sneaked on here) were about to happen - but didn't - except for the directors share purchase months later which didn't shift the SP anyway because it was a derisory amount that FOTH still thought indicated SS earned £120,000 when the amount indicated a net salary that, before deductions assuming some extras, was probably over £300,000.

24 January 2022:-
'Freeasabird@davethedrill1
#UKOG That seems to say the CEO is earning around 100 to 120 k per annum.
That once again shows up the Swampies for the liars that they are that have infested the
@LondonSouthEast Board :)

Starting to understand who the liar who is being shown up and infesting this board?

Tweeted that nobody engages with him or are 'scared' but as KooStark (now removed - but seems to favour female names) said I posted too much. But when I asked for examples in my posts this was the reply:-

'I cannot access your posting history sadly.'

FOTH could have done - and this was my response to FOTH's constant lies made up about my non-existent posting about August and September 2021 HH-1 production figures, which of course FOTH is still doing:-

'Usual weak response when challenged on your supposed 'facts'. Because when it comes to it most of your 'facts' are made up.
I can categorically state that I have never said or even suggested that the figures for August and September represent a full months production. However FOTH has made various claims on twitter about when the site work was performed to try and justify the low figure in August which he then had to extend through September when that production figure was released.'

And not forgetting this from an alternative universe:-

Freeasabird @davethedrill1
Jan 28
#UKOG The naysayers and liars on @LondonSouthEast have cancelled me again lol.
I'll be back Ibug Pingo and the rest of the swampy tag team. It's funny how they don't want to engage when I'm on there but once cancelled all the big hard greenies steam in when I can't reply. Cowards'

I suppose that means welcome back , though I'm 60+ posts too late ..... but you're still lying, with your sycophantic followers bolstered by your presence loving your every post - and you think I post too much, or is that 'not engage' at least I haven't spent all evening replying to myself.

Wizard,

Perhaps you could explain where these 'voids' are and how water filling them is a good thing?

'I'm sure in the last period some of the void in the reservoir has been replaced by water through the natural fracture system so will have longer term benifits.'

FOTH,

'I cannot access your posting history sadly.'

Usual weak response when challenged on your supposed 'facts'. Because when it comes to it most of your 'facts' are made up.

I can categorically state that I have never said or even suggested that the figures for August and September represent a full months production. However FOTH has made various claims on twitter about when the site work was performed to try and justify the low figure in August which he then had to extend through September when that production figure was released.

Yawn,

Sometimes posts seem so familiar......

Don't kid yourself - it doesn't bother me at all - what bothers me is those trying to deceive - the 'bother' seems to be theirs.

btw the highest average water cuts in 2021 were in the months that UKOG tried producing more oil - but cut back the next month. But they still didn't get it as low as before the 2020 workover.