Member Info for Penguins

Ozzy,

You posted amongst other things:- 'when there is company news i will have something to discuss.....until then do you want me to discuss what i would like to happen'.

I'd be more interested in discussing what you think will happen and what it's based on (a discussion), not what you would like to happen - that's easy we would all like all of UKOG's ventures to be transformational and the SP to rise inexorably to £1 and we'd all be millionaires.

This isn't semantics - it's the difference between the many posters who post (they hope) the SP will be 2p by Xmas or that every activity will be successful, and posters who state what they think will happen and explain why.

So I'm accused, constantly, at the time of posting, of being negative because I post what I think will happen - yet looking back they're almost always more positive than what actually happened.

Consider that when I'm accused of bashing, naysaying etc.

Perhaps a glance at the SP chart might explain why when posting what I expect to happen hasn't been positive - although I rarely mention what I expect the SP to do because whilst fundamentals eventually come to bear anything can happen in between - which is why trading works with UKOG, not holding - see those spikes followed by a fall on the chart.

Ozzy,

Waffle, waffle. There has been plenty of 'company news' since you joined the board yet I'm pretty sure you've never discussed anything except other posters, mostly with yourself and ocelot strangely enough.

Ozzy,

Ozzy,

Yes I do criticise what other posters post - but not every post say's- he's a ramper so ignor it, or therefore everything they say is rubbish - even though it often is.

No - I'll explain why I disagree.

You just snipe and aren't prepared to comment about UKOG:-

'I have my theories but im keeping them to myself until things become clearer.....personal guesswork doesn't prove anything,'

What's the matter afraid your 'guesswork' will be exposed as wrong? You've kept your theories quiet for nearly a year - I don't think I've ever seen a substantive comment about UKOG from you, but hundreds about other posters who presumably you don't agree with - but aren't prepared to 'discuss' - but maybe you can prove me wrong?

Adrian,

please don't think we're all stupid - here's your opinion of 'respected poster ocelot':-

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1 Jun 3
Ocelot or Ocebot :) on lse must be on speed or something. You can't keep posting like that night and day. #ukog
But yes Sando & PR team desperate to get his placing away. What's his bonus for this time?
Tarmacing a road in Turkey maybe?

Freeasabird@davethedrill1 Apr 13
#ukog Just had a look in on the LSE BB. Think Wizard125, ocelot and ninetails have all been on the Happy baccy tonight.'

Of course cash flow will improve if water injection works - but for some reason you ignore that UKOG say that's all it will do, not improve production levels - though they probably hope they can tweak it up a bit - maybe a lot for an initial rate to please the punters, as ozzy says what will be etc, opinion is just that.....and so on.

But assuming injection works the cash won't be enough for what UKOG need and it will need to be retained by HHDL for forward plans at HH.

PS when have I said it will fail? Might, could and I give reasons which aren't 'imo'. - haven't you noticed that not everything goes as expected at HH.

Out of curiousity I just searched ignor on FOTH's twitter feed - loads of examples.

ignore (correct spelling) - 3 recent ones - did you forget to spell check, or is your wife(?) writing some of them. Wonder what the 'laughing' you heard was.

Come on - writing posts about Adrian as if you aren't him - grow up - don't worry I won't tell anyone, don't think anyone else noticed, oops seems tollers noticed.

Ocelot - best bit is you won't see this - yawn - ozzy did I say it was a conspiracy, it was a joke so I apologise if it upset you- but if the cap fits, as they say.......

Ozzy,

what aspect of UKOG do you want to debate?

This board is for discussion about UKOG not posters so I do try to introduce something about the company in my posts even when pushing back - the fact that UKOG has seemingly poor projects is not my fault and I still await information from UKOG that fills in the substantial gaps in their statements about their projects that demonstrates the projects are in fact good rather than chosen excerpts without backup that prove nothing.

As for as 'Penguin, in my post at 00:30 (which was an honest consideration of many posters), which you obviously took to be personal,( i suppose if the cap fits etc)'

erm - as this was the start of your 00:32 post:- 'Penguin, why would anyone who does not have a financial interest in UKOG post so often on this forum, if not for disruptive purposes'

I suppose I could be forgiven for taking it personally.

as for 'opinions are only opinions until they are proven' that's true - but there's a difference between a fact based opinion (boring lecture) to someone believing 'imo' is the same as QED.

BTW both your 00:32 and 17:35 posts seem to be patronising lectures, not discussion - telling me what I should do. Unfortunately, like you, I can choose what and who I post about or reply to.

As you seem to think your role is to criticise posters you 'think' are naysayers I don't need to.

Adrian,

thought this a more honest thread title (from the 2020 Annual Report and Accounts about HH-2z):- 'Unfortunately, as the test progressed the formation water cut significantly increased to over 70% rendering production of the well technically and commercially challenging.' - apologies, earlier I said 'up to 70%'.

whilst it might not be. as you posted, 'a crime to post positives.'

It has almost always been wrong and quite often not even positive - if not 'soon', eventually - and apparently pointing this out is 'being scared' rather than putting the record straight. More often than not to find out how bad the so called good news is - just wait.

Nobody's scared of what Adrian posts or tweets - don't kid yourself - his whinging about being banned from LSE and often begging to be allowed to return is pathetic - not realising that constantly sneaking backis a further break of the rules.

So the 'good news' is permission to drill a dodgy well, permission to try out water injection. Let's see how 'positive' these things turn out to be with fund raising needed, posssibly for both as the passing months erode UKOG's cash and need to ring fence funds for Turkey. Of course there's the hoped for short term spikes, but a long wait for results - certainly for Loxley.

Tollesbury,

unfortunately there's also a conspiracy theory promulgated by certain posters that anyone posting sensibly is xr, has no shares or hates UKOG and are acting together (though ocelot and ozzy 'pop up' when Ade appears as if commanded, and all three seem to comment mainly about other posters in the absence of 'positive' things to say about UKOG).

Either I'm missing the sarcasm or the deception is working.

Red tape is the only thing currently stopping SS spending more confetti generating funds on risky wells in the UK - which wouldn't have been drilled, following the Basur-3 fiasco, until 2022 earliest anyway

HH has full permission to proceed, Finch isn't the reason for no progress - it's the reservoirs - but of course no explanation why HH-1z wasn't drilled, no mention of the risks prior to production starting and no mention of water until after the OGA reports started listing it.

Thay have unpublished reports on HH Kimmeridge and the FDP for HH-1 Portland, both would have been interesting reading and surely there would be analysis of the likely outcomes for the conversion of HH-2z to an injector.

Silence on the Resan / Basur seismic which some posters claimed in the absence of 'news' must have been shot (yes really!). Expected start date according to UKOG August - still not sure if it has started, AME were expecting 'boots on ground' on or before 8 November. Maybe when the vibe start working we'll hear something - or they'll tweet a picture.

But they can mention in yesterday's RNS international and their diversion into Hydrogen and Geothermal - must have forgotten solar.

If Matt (a Financial controller in an East Africa focussed gold miner) is an upgrade to the UKOG 'teams' knowledge about international oil & gas, green geothermal and hydrogen energy then it perhaps explains how they were sold a Turkey, sorry a transformational opportunity - which they passed the cost of to SH with the placing.

Perhaps East Africa is the important bit of his experience - Miasol called it first!

Ocelot,

5th highest volume eh.

It helps having a SP (checks top of page) of 0.1125p.

For instance one AZN share costs the same as about 75,000 UKOG shares- 75 million UKOG volume = 1000 AZN volume (just looked AZN volume 240,000 = more than UKOG's market cap)

Exploration,

3D costs money (probably the same as a finder well in Turkey), takes time - and you can spend the money destroying your prospects (ask any oilco FD), whereas talking about OIP, drilling wells in the future and starting drilling (on AIM) raises the SP (look at the concentration of comments about plans rather than outcomes). You don't even have to show anything as boring as a subsurface map in SE Turkey as surface features tell all (except they don't). Nobody cares, except those convinced being a lth is a badge of honour, if it fails as long as they get out near the peak of the P&D and before the results.

Ocelot,

But what is an economic production level? 50bopd might be economic if the cost of the well is written off - but would you spend money drilling another well for that production level- and how significant would it be to UKOG.

But it might be an idea to find oil first before celebrating economic robustness - after all how risky did AME think this appraisal was.

Ocelot,

Just now:-
'Simply trying to get a handle on the kind of flows which the partners may be seeking to generate from Basur-3 and follow-up drills.'

Yesterday:-
'So 100% of the East Sadak field = 630 x 100/88 = 716 bopd and 50% of a comparable figure at Basur-3 would be 358 bopd, ie, at $80, revenue of $10.45m or, at 1.34, £7.8m.'

Not explaining that the figure you were comparing for Basur-3 production was the whole field production for E Sadak without any mention of 'follow-up drills' suggest either naivety or something else.

13 wells in (most probably still in production) and several sidetracks later they end up with an average of 524bopd in September this year, one month and four months after 2 sidetracked wells came on stream - that's someting to consider.

Month - BBls - BOPD average
May-21 - 11681 - 376.8 E Sadak-13s put on production
Jun-21 - 20158 - 671.9
Jul-21 - 16089 - 519.0
Aug-21- 18573 - 599.1 E Sadak-12s put on production 14/08
Sep-21 - 15739 - 524.6 Last data

Ocelot,

You're repeating rubbish - stop trying to deceive - you are taking a figure for a whole field with multiple wells and assigning that production to a single well.

I could equally deceive and divide your figure by 10 (at least) and then take off half for production decline of a single well leaving UKOG with revenues of £209,250 per annum

Ocelot,

you posted:-
'hopefully, the partners will be in a position to advance Basur-3 on the ground from early Spring.'

First the data has to be acquired, and we don't know if they've even started, nor how long acquiring , processing and innterpretation will take - the terrain is exceptionally rugged, processing onshore data takes a lot more effort, especially where the structure at surface and subsurface is complex, and interpreting the seismic will certainly be tricky and probably equivocal. After all that it's quite posssible they will decide either they need more data, or the well site is in the wrong place, though maybe they'll drill there anyway to hold the SP up and cash raise for the second drill.

You quoted the whole E Sadak field production yesterday as if somehow Basur-3 would emulate production from up to 13 wells when the evidence from scout reports is that initial production per well at best is similar to HH-1 (and UKOG only get 50% in Basur / Resan) - and despite HH-1 decline in production being pretty terrible initial decline in E Sadak wells looks to be worse.

Ocelot,

To start with that is production from at least 10, possibly 13 wells. Also the latest E Sadak production figures from the scout report illustrate that wells in E Sadak decline rapidly.

Here's an extract with daily averages added:-
Month BBls BOPD Average
Feb-21 9482 338.6
Mar-21 10499 338.7
Apr-21 10160 338.7
May-21 11681 376.8 E Sadak-13s put on production
Jun-21 20158 671.9
Jul-21 16089 519.0
Aug-21 18573 599.1 E Sadak-12s put on production 14/08
Sep-21 15739 524.6 Last data
Oct-21 E Sadak-14 put on production

First thing you might notice is that no month's average daily production reached over 700bopd - so 716bopd didn't last long, and from June to July the whole field production dropped 150bopd - 12S being put into production boosted production during August but September's production was at a similar level to July's.

E Sadak-13S added about 333bopd relative to April's field production in June which dropped to 181bopd in July. So if Basur-3 manages to find oil (not guaranteed) and it's similar to this recent well on E Sadak that's about 167 bopd net to UKOG in month 1, 90 bopd net to UKOG in month 2 - and who knows what in month 3 with no additional well to bring on stream.

Miraasol,

If the example reprocessed seismic line in the Annual Report (perhaps your security settings are too high - didn't have any issues all weekend accessing it) is anything to go by agreeing an interpretation might be very tricky. Will they be brave enough to publish a prognosis - or even a map?

So anyone saying they are expecting drilling 'news' in Turkey any time soon is likely to be very disappointed, as would anyone falling for it.

Apart from (hopefully) the seismic survey has commenced just news about permissions to spend more money in the UK on Loxley or HH (which according to some posters won't happen until the planning challenge is quashed) - or appealing the Arreton planning refusal.

Seems those that were encouraging others to invest based on a decision and subsequent SP spike from Sarah Finch's challenge to HH planning before last week 'forgot' it was just the hearing.

GMK,

I have made it clear that I don't think the seismic acquisition is completed yet. I was quoting two things you had posted

1) That you agreed the seismic crew would acquire 20 kms a day ( my opinion a few kilometres a day)

2) that the field crew had started acquisition on, or before 8 November (my view that's when the crew began the process of clearing lines both physically and for permissions).

I was just helping you out with the maths and putting those two together meant they should have finished latest 14th November or over a week ago - definitely not my view.

You then said that UKOG usually delay news 2 weeks and I pointed out good news is usually released quickly, and bad news pretty slow - for example we are still waiting for the company to fess up to months ago not getting the additional licences to the south of Resan/Basur - so important for their new SE Turkey 'focus'.

But it certainly isn't good management to drill a well 'blind' in an area where E Sadak, the adjacent lookalike field with up to 14 wells plus sidetracks, still had to sidetrack 3 out of the last 4 wells because of no oil at the target.

Having to suspend the well to shoot seismic they should have shot first because the well had to be started by a certain date is pretty poor planning and there's no guarantees, even if the new seismic helps, that a target will be reachable from the current site.

GMK,

Interesting - 'It seems UKOG RNS about 2 weeks late imo.'

I think you'll find that 'bad' news is often delayed much more than 2 weeks - but good news is pretty instant.

The evidence is clearly there. eg the failure to get the applied for licences in Turkey vs formal award of Resan/Basur.

AME Annual Report:- 'The joint venture was formally gazetted in Turkey 12 January 2021.'

UKOG RNS:- '15/01/2021 08:44 Amended - Formal Government Consent - Resan'

Took 3 days vs so far UKOG haven't mentioned the failure to get the licences months ago.

'So still a week or to to close shorts' - hahahaha - like anyone allows you to short UKOG.

GMK,

It says 'expecting' to start, that well known expectation get out featured in many of UKOG's RNS - and now featured in AME's scout report - eg from UKOG RNS 'Consequently, the first DDSPP purchase is expected to occur on Friday July 2nd, 2021'

'Mirasole is more accurate. Assuming he is right 2D seismic should be completed next week.'

'The 2D Seismic could have started before the 8th of November.'

Assuming you're right and it started before 8th November and 'assuming he is right' with 20km per day acquisition surely means that they finished the 116km by 14th November latest - last Sunday.

Wonder when UKOG will mention it?

GNK,

Of course you would say that, but so what - it should have been started in August according to UKOG and posters have been claiming it was progressing or even finished since then - but UKOG haven't even said 'the works' (line clearance both physical and agreements) have started, let alone acquiring the data.

Mirasol, we will find out hopefully soon enough what's going on and how long it will take. Until then I'd have a look at this 'bit steep' - picture on page 34 of the 2020 AME Annual Report.

http://aladdinmiddleeast.com/images/userfiles/files/AME_2020%20Annual%20Report.pdf

Ocelot,

Whilst in the annual report AME quote whole field production following a well being put on sream we are lucky to have monthly figures from the scout report.

Here's an extract with daily averages added:-
Month BBls BOPD Average
Feb-21 9482 338.6
Mar-21 10499 338.7
Apr-21 10160 338.7
May-21 11681 376.8 E Sadak-13s put on production
Jun-21 20158 671.9
Jul-21 16089 519.0
Aug-21 18573 599.1 E Sadak-12s put on production 14/08
Sep-21 15739 524.6 Last data
Oct-21 E Sadak-14 put on production

What this generally shows is that production from E Sadak wells drops rapidly. Whole field production from multiple wells requires constant drilling to maintain levels - you'll note production prior to April stabilised at just over 338bopd.

From these figures a rough idea of single well production can be estimated:-
13S being put on production during May added 334bopd in June relative to April.
But by July that had dropped to 181bopd (about 55%) more than April.
12S added 80BOPD to the total in about 2 weeks of August - but by September the BOPD total had dropped to little more than July's - and only 185bopd more than April's - probably due to continued decline of 13S and 12S also declining - but also other wells may have been switched off.

A lot of unknowns but as long as UKOG don't comment on E Sadak production, described as a producing lookalike to Basur / Resan, these figures are all we have to go on - and previous wells being put on stream have shown similar rapid decline. 11S was put on production in July 2019 and total field production in August 2019 was 884bopd, by August 2020 whole field production had halved to 435bopd.

Mirasol,

20km acquisition per day? - it depends on method and amount of kit thrown at it but even in the easiest territory that would be unlikely, especially for high resolution acquisition. In the mountainous topography in Basur / Resan they'd be lucky to do a few kilometres some days.