RE: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-5888603614 Oct 2021 00:32
TLO
This is an extract from AME's annual report about the field (E Sadak) described as a geological and production lookalike to Resan Basur:-
'On the East Sadak production lease, where AME is the operator and has an 88% working interest, activity was focused on processing raw data from the 2019 seismic campaign and subsequently interpreting the processed data to refine the geological model of the structure. From this analysis East Sadak-13 was spudded on 25 October. ES-13 was located 516 meters north of ES-2. Although drilled down to 2,956 meters it did not encounter the Mardin level predicted by the G&G data. A full set of logs were run and the processed G&G data is being recalibrated with these results. Nevertheless, once scheduled maintenance was completed on the drilling rig, the existing data supported a side-track on ES-13 from 1,490 meters in a south westerly direction. This side-track operation was completed and on 24 May 2021 the well was put on production at 400 bbls/d.'
It's a lot of words and could almost qualify as research, here's a summary:-
They shot seismic in 2019 (following ES-11 being sidetracked and 12 dry) to locate E Sadak -13, drilled in October 2020, 10+ months later - the well was dry so the seismic was reinterpreted and a sidetrack was drilled to a new location and put on production at 400bopd in May 2021 - about 18 months delay from the seismic being shot.
Now this was the 13th well on this lookalike field so they have plenty of modern (all since 2014) well data to calibrate and toie the seismic data- and not all 13 were successful.
The initial rate of 400bopd isn't that stunning, and previous wells on E Sadak decline rapidly (but not quite as fast as HH-1 did) - and UKOG only get 50%.
Would that sort of success (if they get lucky) really support a mcap of £324mm to £648mm - and that assumes no more dilution - almost nailed on with unfunded wells anticipated in Loxley and Arreton both high risk ventures despite the laughable commercial risk UKOG have suggested
It may be 'boring' but perhaps one day the supply of punters to feed P&D may dry up and it will need fundamentals, not hope, to justify the SP - UKOG may get lucky but few posters despite ridiculous SP predictions seem to hang around for that with near term objectives to make short term gains on P&D (and then disappear until the SP inevitably falls from wait and dilutions - me included as I've previously posted - but I refuse to pretend the projects are anything but high risk and mostly low reward
Only Loxley - in the unlikely event the map is right, the reservoir is fractured as it isn't fantastic, the H2S isn't a problem and there's no water in the fractures - is possibly high reward if gas prices remain high for long enough as infrastructure cost will be high to export or reform it.
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