Member Info for Penguins

Ocelot,

Yet you used to post chart based information regularly which is solely based on trying to predict the future from past trends (or archive data as you would have it) in the SP - which has been spectacularly wrong, and often the advice repeated by you (buy) would lead to losses.

A far better indicator of UKOG's future SP hasn't been the OP so far, but has been to expect massive overpromising and similarly massive underperformance by UKOG because they fail to provide a balanced view as to the risks of achieving the 'potential' expected.

As for predictions of OP (and gas price) in the future - 'events' have a nasty habit of proving most projections wrong as they are no more than guesses as to future actions by producers vs consumers and cannot by definition predict unforeseeable events.

TH2,

'several streams of news flow'

In Turkey would that be that they failed to be awarded the licences applied for to the south of Basur / Resan - part of the supposed new focus area, or if the seismic acquisition expected to start in August has started - or even progressing - needed to hopefully better map the subsurface.

Or in the UK perhaps the appeal for Loxley where no decision date is yet shown for this unfunded well not likely to be drilled until late 2022 at the earliest - or maybe Arreton where planning is still to be determined by committee and if passed not likely until 2023 - and also unfunded.

Or HH-2z where permission to convert to an injector is awaited - where first actions will require a CT unit at least and then require testing to see if the effects on production are benificial, neutral or even negative.

Not sure how changing CEO will make any difference to any of the outcomes, nor accelerate arriving at them.

Exploration (and appraisal) and the required permissions do take time and rushing them can be expensive errors - Basur-3 being a very good example of not doing things in the right order (and those here longer will remember the 'production ' completion installed - and then removed at BB) - and rushing applications may similarly mean the required 'admin' is incomplete, causing delays (looking at the planning applications documents submittedlong after the initial application) - and of couse there is the hostile environment to O&G in SE England. The 'geological' risks will, however, remain unchanged.

Have the many unfulfilled 'expectations' previously floated led to the current lack of any indication of what's expected - just OIP and non-SPE resources and reserves and the over used (and never delivered in a positive way) promise of transformational results, or are the real production expectations not as positive as some expect and it's better left to hope and imagination rather than any projections based on the data that is available as all the projects have the undeveloped discovery well and more than one appraisal well to base any expectations on (and an analogue field in Turkey) - high hopes of at least hydrocarbon shows but none particularly suggesting transformational (or even guaranted) successful results.

Would a new CEO clear the decks with an honest review of the projects - current and future ranges of production and what needs to happen, a proper risk assessment - even mention the failed application for licences in Turkey, explain the lack of BoD share purchases.......still, maybe this Friday.....

TWB,

Ever heard of rollovers. The brokers love to put them through at extremes of the spread just to generate a bit of excitement in a languishing share.

Looks like that one cost the T20 (or whatever it was) over a thousand quid. If it really was over 100million shares bought then the SP would have risen and held - just another way to deceive the punters.

So news that the seismic acquisition is underway - did it start in August as UKOG stated it would? - will shift the SP up nearly 50%?

Why? It's not as if the seismic already available, and reprocessed, helped if halting the drilling is anything to go by. It could be (yet another) waste of over £1mm.

The other Turkey news is that they still need to inform the market, rather than readers of twitter and this board, that they failed to be awarded the addition licences applied for to the south of Resan/Basur. In my opinion that ought to see an increase in SP - but the 'market' might not agree.

Or are you thinking of drilling news - next year for that if the seismic hasn't started yet - and probably next year if it has.

I see he's now making stuff up on twitter that he predicted this RNS,

'I told him and Pingo works have started at #Horsehill. I put pictures up and still that jerk says I'm lying even after today's RNS confirming I am 100% correct. #UKOG Up next the Water reinjector permit. You heard it here first.'

and btw I acknowledged the works were ongoing on 2 September (post still there) when roganjt came on here trying the I've seen something but I'm not telling what 'trick':-

yet:-

'Freeasabird
@davethedrill1
#ukog next RNS EA permit for water injector for HH2 . #Horsehill
Strong Buy. Imho.
9:23 PM · Aug 31, 2021·Twitter for Android'#

Hmm - 'next RNS EA permit for water injector.' - so not 100% correct.

Not once did he post or tweet that the works were as mentioned in the interims in July (even yesterday when I asked him to clarify what he thought the works were for), only to bring the site up to EA standards - presumably hoping that continually mentioning the HH-2z conversion would be soon that punters would think the works were for the water injector:-

Freeasabird
@davethedrill1
Sep 11
#ukog
Did you know?
UK Oil &Gas have planning approval for a water reinjector well at #Horsehill.
The well HH2z is drilled and awaiting an environment permit. Public consultation endbded in April this year.
Work onsite is in progress .
Another pic a week ago . New bunding.'

'work on site is in progress' which I suspect he hoped would be taken as being for the injector.

Yet despite not visiting the site or seeeing any meaningful photo I've several times suggested the work was as stated in the RNS when posters have tried the I've seen something happening at the site post, even yesterday:-

'As for the current activities at the site this from the GM notice:- 'In addition, within its UK portfolio, the Company also plans to fund regulatory works at Horse Hill....'

'........Is probably what's going on at the site, not specific works for the conversion of HH-2z.'

as for UKOG has gas - more details please, they haven't yet got permission to drill at Loxley to see if there's any in the licence and no money to do so - the 3 / 4 previous wells didn't make the grade, otherwise the associated gas at HH is just a trickle.

TH2

'We might even see new daily production rates reported with 24hour operations at Horsehill now.'

The delusion is strong in this one.......

'new daily production figures'

Can anyone point out when UKOG gave any actual daily production figures - and they've been operating 24/7 with people on site - but of course TH2 knows that, just hoping to catch a few punters who might believe it.

SRBS ,

Not sure what SR stands for but the rest.....

UKOG have licences where they can 'appraise' an undeveloped 'discovery' (some just oil shows) that in most (all?) cases have already been appraised and not developed, plus some minor fields, one shut in, one netting about 10bopd to UKOG and the third - Horse Hill - not producing the hundreds/thousands of bopd expected - but because UKOG remain silent about production we have to wait 3 months to find out Horse Hill is producing about 100bopd with 40+% water cut (in May).

UkOG boasting about unmanned production which will save a few dollars OPEX (there goes promised local jobs) but still can't bring themselves to mention what HH-1 is producing.

Pingo i have rattled you.

No, but you're now resorting to making things up.

where I have said the water injector will have no positive effect on 'profits' and SP?

I keep getting told I've posted things I haven't.

I have pointed out nothing is guaranteed in terms of improved production - and it could backfire and make things worse - but I've often quoted your 'Lovely' excerpt which clearly means that profits will improve if it works as UKOG hope. I've also said the announcement may be accompanied by a P&D and the SP will improve. The issue is if as UKOG say only water disposal costs are saved are the fundamentals improved enough to even support the current SP.

So are you saying that the injector work isn't being done now as if you're troubled by this sentence it must mean your tweets and posts about 'work' being done at HH are all BS/guessing in regard to work for the HH-2z conversion.

'when's the conversion happening - presumably now according to what you're inferring - or is it all BS with no evidence just guessing/hope?'

But how many times (when you were ramping) have you told of a golden future, huge profits, eveything working vs my posts being cautious about outcomes.

'A fossil fuel protestor through and through imo.'

As I told you years ago when you were freeasabird on here you would be surprised - and I'm no 'greenie' - but what happened to all those previous 'great' RNS - I was constantly derided for pointing out they weren't (all those accurate 'negative' posts) and why - just look at the SP chart for why to be cautious of proclamations of great RNS.

Anyway you've wasted your weekend posting here (and deramping on UJO) I'll not waste any more of my evening.

Sad you have to spend all weekend trying to rescue your 'quick' trade expecting the BoD to buy shares and an imminent EA announcement.

'LOVELY'

thought all my posts were negative - but I suppose you don't understand honest opinion rather than BS.

UKOG have RNS'd the water injection will save water disposal costs but you then assume something UKOG have never said - that production will double because of injection- and then you do a bit of 'wizard' (you know - the poster you constantly insulted when you were in deramp mode on twitter) maths ignoring OPEX, ignoring other costs, ignoring the salary drain, and ignoring possible decline to get a figure for a year's production that wouldn't even fund HH-3 without those costs.

So if they do manage 200bopd, no decline, OP holds up, what SP will that support? and if it doesn't change? when's the conversion happening - presumably now according to what you're inferring - or is it all BS with no evidence just guessing/hope?

as for accusing anyone of obsession - if you have a mirror have a look '

'Pingo is not going to like what i am saying. I am just waiting for his deramping diatribe a bit later.'

hold that mirror, they just keep coming - 'silly chilish BS like some fruit cakes on here :)'

Snaith,

the most recent RNS comment about the water injection is in UKOG's interims which makes no mention of it increasing production - unusually modest for a company where previous expectations of production, claimed to be conservative by certain posters, have turned out to be spectacular exaggerations.

'As reported previously, the significant cost reductions achieved at Horse Hill over the year and the forecast reduction in water handling costs via the conversion of HH-2z into a water injector means that, going forwards, Horse Hill production is forecast to be profitable'

Which also suggests it wasn't profitable in June.

As for the current activities at the site this from the GM notice:- 'In addition, within its UK portfolio, the Company also plans to fund regulatory works at Horse Hill....'

and from the interims:- 'We are carrying out modifications at the site to comply with The Control of Major Accident Hazards regulations (lower tier), as well as other regulations. Liaison continues with the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency ("EA") to ensure the Horse Hill site satisfies these regulations.'

Is probably what's going on at the site, not specific works for the conversion of HH-2z.

Strange you think that UKOG has permission from the EA to proceed with the water injection and kept quiet about it when it's only the bad news UKOG has difficulty in announcing immediately - for example not being awarded the applied for blocks in Turkey - silence.

We shall see, eventually, what the injecton can and can't do - in the meantime any prediction for which month water injection will start - permission is one thing, doing the work is another.

HH1AN2,

'fresh positive views' - though the same as last time FOTH 'visited' the board. I hope any one reading it bears that post in mind next time you post anything 'positive'.

Ocelot,

AME have already shown that the bit of SE Turkey that UKOG is involved in is not very analogous to the Kurdistan fileds by multiple drills at the adjacent, analogous to Resan/Basur E Sadak with significantly lower production and reserves.

Perhaps they intend to help with exploration nearer the border.

Ocelot,

Unfortunately there is already a field in SE Turkey adjacent (and slightly nearer) Iraq to the field UKOG farmed into in south east Turkey - Resan/Basur - that has multiple wells yet doesn't produce oil at volumes 'analogous' to the Iraq fields. UKOG has also preferred to look far to the south-east and the Kurdistan fields than actually mention the production over time (or even a snapshot) of this producing lookalike field.

I wonder how much investment getting 8% of AME cost, or are they just going to utilise their technology as payment?

I noticed this in the annual report some time ago which suggests that the even the relatively small current 'reserves' for E Sadak may not be all they seem:-

'Our current strategy is to increase our oil production substantially from our new discoveries, proving the recoverable reserves to international industry standards and to the satisfaction of financial institutions.....' so they can get a London listing.

So the recoverable reserves quoted by AME (and requoted by UKOG) might be a bit flakey for the analogous field to Reasn/ Basur.

Ibug,

I usually do share my opinion, and try and back it up with whatever evidence is available - for some too sharing and unfortunately that opinion is often not as positive as some would like - but hey this is a discussion board and I'm also prepared to discuss but find most except a certain few unwilling, or more likely unable, to engage - either changing the subject or disappearing for a few days.

We already know now, thanks to AME, what happened to the recent E Sadak wells and thanks to the Turkish Official Gazette that the applied for blocks went to TPAO even if UKOG have refrained from mentioning it after 'bigging' the application up in RNS and presentations - but it would be useful to see the latest E Sadak production figures (and see if ES-13 declines from initial rates) in a scout report and any commentary that AME have about Resan/Basur so I have a look most days.

When I saw wizard's post I had to check I hadn't liinked to a page from March last year as that was when HH-1 was completed as a fully fledged production well, with a pump fitted (but not the super duper one that supposedly increased production). If it was removed for a while the September production figures might be a bit down.

Ibug,

Just expanding on your commentary.

I realise your figure was as per UKOG - but that was on 7 July - before the bit got stuck, or at least we were told about it in August. So maybe the seismic processing is included in the £1.1mm - but that does equate approximately to the figure given by UKOG, depending on exchange rate, as the cost of seismic excluding processing of $1.5mm - from the GM notice:- 'The agreed 2021 joint venture work programme of Basur-3 and 120 line km of seismic is estimated at an aggregate gross cost of approximately $5 million (drilling $3.5 million, seismic $1.5 million) excluding coring, post well analyses, seismic processing and drill and seismic related contingencies'. As the seismic acquisition hadn't started the full $1.5mm would remain to be spent.

Therefore it's likely the remaining estimated commitment made in JUly is out of date.

Ibug,

In terms of current committment in Turkey that needs to be ring- fenced - there are a costs not covered by the $5mm, contingencies like the redrill of the 12 1/4 section, an extra mob/ demob and likely extra drilling to reach a new target, or even a new site - and seismic processing was also omitted - though any excess to $5mm will only be charged at 50%. There's also AME's recharge of their office costs etc. Testing the well if warranted is also not in the $5mm.

At HH we know there are currently works ongoing at HH to probably to bring the site up to EA standards as flagged in the interims.

The only significant UK expenditure this year might be reconfiguring HH-2z and the required surface modifications - this will require something more than a crane, and extra equipment above ground for injection once reconfigured.

HH-3 may be a contender for the next well with no site prep costs but a lot may depend on what happens with HH-2z - so not likely this year and all the other wells will be more expensive requiring up front site costs.

Even (or especially) if Basur-3 is successful (though E Sadaak demonstrates even after many wells failures happen, and production is modest and declines rapidly) any cashflow will go to drilling Resan-6 (or another well), but may require a further cash raise.

If the injection is successful beyond UKOG's expectattion of just saving water disposal costs any further drilling in the UK outside of HH still seems unlikely in 2022 without further significant cash raises, and even funding HH-3 in 2022 would depend on a significant increase in HH-1 production.

If HHDL does start making a profit at HH (rather than constantly lending money to it ) to get cash to UKOG to fund anything outside of HHDL will almost certainly be initially by repayment of loans to UKOG (and others owed cash) - although UKOG will be able to get their hands on 35% of the profits through their direct licence equity if HHDL doesn't need to cash call it to fund further drilling.

As for the cash left at the end March it doesn't look like enough, without extra cash from somewhere whether by cash raises or increase in HH production, to drill any UK wells next year.

If any oil had been seen before the bit got stuck it could be an indication of a breached structure (not good news) as they hadn't reached the first target, and the seismic was meant to start in August, but no mention of it so far. But if they had little idea of where to target the drill based on previous reprocessed seismic data will more data help?

The rise was based on expectation that drill results would be soon (and a massive twitter lead P&D) that the 20+% discounted placing was (pre) sold into, and then the SP dropped to way below the placing price for the open offer.

Instead of jam tomorrow hopes - drill start, Loxley appeal win, seismic start(?), HH-2z conversion - it would be nice for UKOG to do something that ends up improving the fundamentals rather than a temporary improvement in the SP that only generates hot air and a few extra caught out 'investors' and of course profit for those that research the likely, rather than ramped, outcomes.

Of course any news can be siezed upon for a P&D and any 'naysayers' ridiculed, but then followed by protestations that the SP has dropped on (supposed) good news.

Wizard,

Pity you can't 'remember it' from a UKOG RNS - though many deadlines have been missed so it would be as meaniingless as their plan to drill HH-1z - from the 2019-2020 strategy and drilling plans RNS: 'drilling and production testing of two horizontal wells, HH-1z and HH-2, both planned to start in spring 2019'.

There is no 'due date' for a Kimmeridge FDP. If anything one should have been done soon after drilling the wells that according to the 2018 Corporate Presentation would be drilled in 2020 as it would be required for them to be put into production.

Also from the -
'Further horizontal production wells and a water reinjection well are planned to be drilled in early 2020 following the grant of regulatory approvals for permanent oil production, applications for which have been submitted. Permits to cover 20 years of production are expected to be in place by autumn 2019.'

'regulatory approvals for permanent oil production' = FDP amongst other approvals

Like that target will the 2022 target for an FDP be missed - probably.

Wizard,

HH-1 - Portland Discovery announced October 2014
HH-1 - well completed November 2014
HH-1 – Nutech Kimmeridge report April 2015
HH-1 – Extended flow test of Portland & Kimmeridge Feb/Mar 2016
HH – Planning application for appraisal testing and drilling HH-2/z, HH-1z October 2016
HH – Planning application approved October 2017
HH–1 – Appraisal testing (ewt) commenced July 2018
HH-2 – Drilling commenced September 2019
HH – Planning application for additional 4 oil wells plus water injector December 2018
HH - Planning application approved September 2019
HH-2/z – Commenced drilling

You posted:-
‘As you have witnessed over the year's since the HH1 well was initially drilled it took 3 years to gain the permission before the EWT commenced’

As I’ve witnessed over the years UKOG have prevaricated spending a lot of time not promptly submitting planning applications, complicating applications and then waiting to start approved operations despite HH-1 being a ‘gusher’ – perhaps they didn’t want 'proper' results. Other permissions were often in place prior to the planning permission being granted.

Of the nearly 43 months since completion of HH-1 (even longer since the Portland discovery was RNS’d) to start of the main ewt 23 months passed before submitting the planning application and only 12 months was waiting on planning permission for the ewt. Most of the time was UKOG ‘thinking ‘time.

They’ve had permission to drill a Kimmeridge test for 2 years (and all the other development wells). Whether HH-4 is drilled may depend on HH-3 being deepened successfully through the Kimmeridge (like HH-2 was meant to be deepened). This may indicate whether further Kimmeridge appraisal is worthwhile. HH-3 is shown deepened through the Kimmeridge in the Geological Reservoir Parameters Rev4 EA submission dated 28 Jan 2021.

Wizard,

Not sure how many supposed 'deadlines' have been missed or obligation work not done by UKOG, but all that happens if they don't drill it - if the OGA doesn't extend it again - is they have to relinquish half the block/s which given that HH was the best prospect and the Kimmeridge gets worse going north is hardly a penalty - a saving on licence fees would be a bonus.

At the moment they seem to be performing work to comply with regulations as mentioned in the interims in June:-

'We are carrying out modifications at the site to comply with The Control of Major Accident Hazards regulations (lower tier), as well as other regulations. Liaison continues with the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency ("EA") to ensure the Horse Hill site satisfies these regulations.'

Presume that needs to be done before they can go ahead with the HH-2z conversion even if they get the go ahead in the near future - and then find out how effective it is.

Ocelot,

'Loxley has certainly become a much more valuable property than anyone imagined possible a few months ago'

Perhaps a more accurate sentence would be :-

If Loxley is successful and proves to be, against the odds, commercially viable to the extent that the field has multiple successful wells and an export pipeline is built and gas prices remain at the current levels although there is no guarantee that would happen, then it would be more valuable than it was with lower prices - obviously.

Should be:-

'if Loxley-1 drilled 2022 maybe 2023'