Member Info for Penguins

Ocelot,

it doesn't matter how keen a backer, partners or even investors are for a well to be a success, the 'geology' decides that aspect.

If AME was that concerned about the location of a well they weren't paying for because their backers were getting nervous they should have made it clear to UKOG that the process should be shoot seismic then drill the well if that was worth while, but is the seismic so poor that it's hit or miss anyway? In the GM notice it seems the existing 2D seismic had been reprocessed to define the location:-

'The company has contributed its share of Basur-3 site construction costs, long lead well equipment and all 2D seismic reprocessing costs necessary to define the Basur-3 drilling location and well plan.'

Perhaps the reason to drill first was that if UKOG had to pay the $1.5mm (+ processing and contingencies) for the seismic before drilling the money would have run out and a cash raise would be needed before spudding the well - it would also have been clear the well wouldn't be drilled last year as suggested in the 23/7/20 RNS.

Also in the GM notice:- ....'(drilling $3.5 million, seismic $1.5 million) excluding coring, post well analyses, seismic processing and drill and seismic related contingencies.'

SRBS,

why wasn't the new seismic shot first so the well was planned to be optimally located. Has the sparse old seismic already proved useless?

The assumption has to be that the information gained so far indicates that the well is not optimally located, and probably not as expected. Perhaps the uncertainty of this appraisal well why UKOG hadn't given any guidance as to depths or timing for Basur-3.

UKOG agreed the deal last July, the seismic could have been acquired, processed and interpreted before the drop dead spud date of 27 June 2021.

The question is, with unknown extra expenditure in Turkey having to be covered, not whether they have enough funds for the well and seismic but whether they can risk spending money on anything else like reconfiguring HH-2z as an injector.

and yet again UKOG is planning multiple future (relatively expensive, high equity, probably risky beyond a show) wells in the UK without the wherewithal to fund them.

conrad'

'No real reason for today`s fall in SP'

Basically UKOG have admitted that they don't have a clue as to the Basur-3 structure.

If the only problems were a stuck drill bit, that was freed, and a hole unsuitable for the next section of the well then they could sidetrack now and get to very close to the original target.

But they have decided at additional cost to stop drilling and acquire the planned seismic survey to better define the structure. This will need to be acquired, processed and interpreted which will take months and it may be that the seismic programme is extended over the new location. The delay will almost certainly mean the rig is demobilised and remobilised at a later date - adding to cost. How long did it take to free the bit and redrilling some or all of the 12 1/4" section will also add to the cost. It may be the reinterpretation indicates a completely different target, unreachable from the current site, or the seismic data may be poor (the area is mountainous, with steep dips in the subsurface and possibly very faulted) so there still might be a high structural risk.

Uncertainty about Basur / Resan plus those who recently 'invested' for instant reward likely bowing out with no 'news' likely for months, plus those who are spooked by this news are certainly reasons for the SP to fall. It has also exposed, once again, that UKOG are unwilling to promptly release bad news - and on top of holding back this bad news they are yet to RNS that the blocks applied for as part of the SE Turkey focus were awarded to TPAO - the state oil company.

Ocelot,

Polishing cloth out again - must be getting a bit worn.

if it was that uncertain why did UKOG agree to pay 100% of the first well with apparently such a tight deadline? If it needs seismic (which may be pretty poor anyway) when they have a well which presumably fixes the depths of the overlying structure it suggests it was drill and hope rather than the constrained appraisal well suggested.

No subsurface maps ever shown, no prognosis even of the target depths.

Seems a bit late deciding that they need better control to derisk this appraisal.

But UKOG have history of not mentioning the need for a sidetrack following well problems - in the UK the OGA has to be told and the BB-1 sidetrack was spotted before UKOG were forced to RNS it.

Posters have pointed out that UKOG would be able to avoid scrutiny by partnering in Turkey - seems that's right.

Insidious,

Is that meant to be a positive post?

60 years and they still don't seem to be able to mitigate against stuck equipment.

Just because they have enough cash for the seismic and sidetrack the cost of drilling the 12 1/4 hole is written off, extra mob/demob maybe extra seismic (was the well showing the current interpretation/ guess was wrong anyway) so how much has it eaten into the available cash - will there be anything left for the essential HH-2z reconfiguring?

The Turkey venture is proving a distraction from maximising income from HH. Over the years SS has wasted time and money chasing unicorns whilst having a site with multiple well permissions that is probably capable of producing oil in similar volumes to any of the unicorns.

Not even a prediction of how long before seismic shot, processed and then interpreted. Could easily be next year. Presumably well will be suspended and rig removed for the delayed result which even then won't be guaranteed. What if the seismic interpretation indicates they should have drilled somewhere else not reachable from the site.

But no mention that TPAO has been awarded the licences applied for South of Resan Basur.

To all those that keep insisting that just because UKOG has in the past held back bad news and only been fast to issue good news they had changed - UKOG hasn't changed.

If only UKOG would be open about what's happening, when it happened rather than when they feel like it - andt5he impact on the future timing.

Disappointing seeing as they spent months planning this well in the knowledge that stuck bit and sidetrack is a fairly common occurance in E Sadak - 3 out of 12 wells.

We now know that the plan was drill and hope, now they are going to wait for new seismic and presumably a better understanding of the subsurface. It would be interesting how deep they actually got, not just stratigraphically but in metres, but as they have never given any details of the well prognosis we still wouldn't know if it was good or bad.

MM,

polishing worthy of ocelot, but a better tack would have been the blocks applied for were sooooo good TPAO wanted them - though they didn't when Perenco applied for them 6 years ago after Bukat-1 was drilled. Perenco then lost the blocks last year having failed to fulfil the 5 year obligation work programme. I wonder if TPAO will find any partners ready to pay 100% of any wells to have minimal risk in case of failure.

But it must be a blow to UKOG's ambition for a new focus in SE Turkey.

As for the silence about Basur-3 nobody knows why but it's been nearly 4 weeks since the fund raise was announced and nearly a week since the open offer closed. The (only) update on 1st July was probably more to do with the fund raise (and the not allowed forward selling thereof) than anything else so I doubt it has anything to do with 'SS not wanting to be accused of ramping up demand for the open offer just incase the outcome from Basur-3 isn't good'.

The go ahead for Loxley, whenever it comes, will at some point mean more fund raising for an expensive UK well,, and almost certainly another flurry of hope/belief with posters repeating (for the xtieth time) that small oilers need funds to progress UKOG having raised and spent in excess of about £80mm. Will permission add 'significant value' - more likely brief speculative interest (P&D), but the well won't be until next year at the earliest and is by no means a slam dunk success that some posters suggest.

and of course hopefully tomorrow the OGA HH figures to get excited about.

Yep the good news is coming in thick and fast.....hold on......

Well there's salaries and keeping all the other plates spinning and the $5mm is just the 100% cap there's this to consider from the GM notice:-

The agreed 2021 joint venture work programme of Basur-3 and 120 line km of seismic is estimated at an aggregate gross cost of approximately $5 million (drilling $3.5 million, seismic $1.5 million) excluding coring, post well analyses, seismic processing and drill and seismic related contingencies.

Even 50% of drilling contingencies can be very large if there are problems.

HH1AN2,

yes interesting week coming up, but let's put some 'bones' to your list.

So will an RNS acknowledging the failure to be awarded the 4 blocks applied for by AME to the south of Resan Basur (awarded to TPAO) be issued before any news of Basur-3, and what will that Basur-3 news be? UKOG during the start of drilling Broadford Bridge gave almost weekly updates of progress, and only went quiet when things went wrong.

Will the BoD announce that the directors share purchase scheme will go ahead next Friday, how many more will they get than if they had bought on 2 July - or maybe the SP will rise with all the encouraging news coming and they'll get less?

The Loxley decision isn't likely until the Autumn according to UKOG, summing up by SCC and UKOG not even scheduled until Friday 13th August.

You forgot the OGA figures for April due tomorrow (as long as the OGA site reinstates HH in their Open Data) - let's see if the higher OP is allowing them to produce more oil to pay for the water trucking, are they even breaking even. As the only production UKOG operate (and likely to operate for a long time) it's hardly 'noise'.

SRBS,

not sure what 'possible last date' you are posting about, but if you're trying to infer the inquiry decision will be 12 August or earlier this is what UKOG put in the RNS (04/03/21).

'Based upon the earlier than expected inquiry date and the inspectorate's average post-inquiry decision timescales, the inspector's ruling is likely to be issued in autumn 2021.'

Mannnan,

appraisal is not guaranteed to

1) find oil
2) find commercially exploitable oil

If you know where to look -and ibug and I have posted where - you can find that even Production wells on E Sadak can fail:- E Sadak-12, described as a production well, had this result:-
'Total Depth : 2725 m
Status : Well was abandoned due to non-economic hydrocarbon potential.'

Also if it's such a sure fire success why won't UKOG even give an indication of what they expect in terms of flow rates.

and if you think E Sadak-12 was a one-off problem here's E Sadak-11:-

'E.Sadak-11 and 12 production wells are completed as dry well.'

But they did sidetrack E Sadak-11 - 11S:- E.Sadak-11S production well in production lease “ARI/AME-SNR/K/M48-c1-1” are completed as oil well.

Of course it doesn't preclude success but this are two of the very recent (2019) wells on the producing lookalike field, E Sadak. Neither AME nor UKOG have mentioned the result of E Sadak-13 which was drilling in 2020

...and both E Sadak -11 and 12 probably had 'oil shows' (12 'non-economic hydrocarbon potential' suggests it did), whether any spike if oil shows are RNS'd won't be known until the well is tested.

Ozzy,

I've seen lots of posts from ocelot about the OP (rising only) or Bloomberg predicting an oil price rise, large amounts of cut'n paste - but research about the projects?

Opinion about the SP based on charts (and guesswork) and finances as well often with no factual backup.

Last niight we got a classic post from ocelot complaining that posters who research only post (in ocelot's opinion) criticism.

Well that's not surprising as far as UKOG's projects are concerned as often the available information that UKOG don't mention in RNS is not as 'positive' as UKOG RNS, state in interviews and highly caveated presentations.

Yesterday also had this gem:- 'The detractors like to argue that because UKOG has failed in the past, it will fail in the future.'

It might have escaped ocelot's notice but HH is still failing vs the plans and expectations expressed by UKOG. But those that only study UKOG RNS might be forgiven for thinking not much water is being produced by HH-1 as UKOG have never mentioned the volumes produced or daily amounts, and have never mentioned bopd since 'over 300bopd' in the June 2020 interim results, despite during the ewt giving regular though selective bopd updates

'The Horse Hill-1 well (HH-1) continued producing at high rates of over 300 bopd almost continuously during the period. Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval.'

The deceit is compounded by suggesting that production had increased from the pump change rather than significantly dropped below 300bopd (from OGA figures, not UKOG) by June - and no mention that HH-1 water production commenced in June.

So how much 'faith' can you have in UKOG RNS if things don't go well in Basur-3?

Ocelot,

More apparently unbiased opinion

Judging by the end result UKOG have probably managed the double of p**sing off placees and pi.

Equally UKOG might have delayed the fund raise as long as possible, until they were running on fumes, in the hope that the placees would be rewarded with good news raising the SP soon after the placing, and then the open offer substantially taken up at 0.18p by pi.

Not having given any indication of the drilling plan despite being involved in the design of the well (Both the Company and AME will now work towards finalising the design and delivery of a successful first appraisal well, Basur-3) nobody knows when UKOG might have hoped for 'news'.

Whilst without any indication from UKOG of expected progress it isn't possible to know whether there are delays, but if the well does have problems that involves sidetracking that cash raise could rapidly disappear even if after $5mm UKOG's contribution drops to 50% so medium term, with HH-2z to reconfigure and Resan / Basur seismic to pay for, might not be all that long even with the extra, checks notes, £462,554.

At least Monday we should get news from the OGA, not UKOG' how well HH was doing in April.

Ocelot,

Rubbish. It isn't feasible that rodders campaign reached a large percentage of shareholders, whilst UKOG are able to inform shareholders by RNS which most shareholders will read.

Most SH will realise that without fund raising the company would rapidly be bankrupt. Perhaps not voting was the protest vote?

and most SH aware of rodders campaign would be suspicious of an ex-ramper turned hyper hater so even if they don't approve of the BoD they don't agree with rodders agenda.

TH2,

how little do you know about O&G exploration?

Nobody stops drilling for holidays, in fact AME's message on Facebook last week was 'We sincerely congratulate all our teammates who work on the field, far from their families so that our energy never ends' - doesn't sound like they are going home

As for 'As expected July was always going to be the drill month and August results'

This is what you posted 1st July:-

RE: Rate of drill 01 Jul 2021 08:43
More speedy work by the Turkish team.
This next drill section could hit the first pool of oil.... could we see oil next week.....Monday...wouldn't want to be out for the weekend.......'

Oil next week.......now next month.

SRBS,

do you really think anyone is naive enough to believe that the 8,000,000 trade at the mid price of 0.17 was a buy when in the last hour of trading there were multiple trades over 0.17. Even the AD*FN dodgy classification had it as '?' so not 'blue' except on even dodgier LSE.

Although it is encouraging there's buys going through above 0.17p.

oops I see mullins is.

as insidious put it:-

'Another investor who should not be allowed to invest his mums pocket money ....'

Open offer RNS - see those new shares aren't available until 2 August and UKOG only shifted about 10% of the offering - 256,974,621 so only nearly half a million raised.

TH2,

I know it's really exciting but:-

'This small site is national and global benefit.'

Is? - If successful (if) Loxley should benefit UKOG, helpful nationally but globally? The world won't run out of gas if Loxley doesn't get drilled, no guarantee that natural gas reformation will happen or even be possible so even the greenwashing is uncertain.

Whilst it's very unlikely the decision will go against UKOG but as SCC (and others) have put forward arguments in support of the refusal there will be some uncertainty until a decision to overturn the refusal is delivered later this year.

Given the cost and risk it will only be known if getting permission is a good or bad thing for UKOG, or if any of the other promised benefits will exist, when the money has been spent on building the site and drilling the well.

Xodus didn't think much of Loxley when the 2018 CPR was done - not even calculating gas in place because of flaws in the mapping, only calculating volumetrics in a recent 'study' not having the same credence as a CPR.

MM

Not sure Basakli is a great 'field' to quote stats about.

Basakli in the 2020 scout report produced nothing from December 2019 to September 2020 - looks like they tried another well in 2019 (Basakli-1RR) which was dry. During 2016 the well was producing less than 20bopd having started in August 2014 at just over 100bopd.

Even I've avoided mentioning this Mardin Field, though it is a long way to the west.

Ocelot,

now you know what I think of lots of posts on this board - posters just not understanding oil and gas exploration.

Interesting, but you will never know if your assertion that the delay wasn't because they couldn't raise the required funds when they wanted (though the 22% discount, or 25% to previous Friday's mid price close, suggests it was a tough sell).

Luckily eventually the results of the projects is known even if UKOG would prefer they weren't, so my realistic opinions about HH and BB (if not too optimistic) can be compared to the so called 'positive' opinions. We will see if basur is as good, worse or better than E Sadak.

On that subject thinking that any opinion about Basur-3 is of equal validity is ridiculous.

'nobody knows in advance the results of Basur-3, so all opinions are currently of equal validity'

But of course part of the reason you might say that is because UKOG have failed (except for claims of 100s of millions of value and it being 'transformational') to advise what the likely outcome is despite declaring the well as an appraisal, close(ish) toBasur-1, and having an adjacent field operated by AME with multiple wells, presumably many of which are producing, described as a producing and geological lookalike.

oops - that got messed up - last two paragraphs in the wrong place

Ocelot,

You are assuming that shareholders who voted in favour of proposals that were required for the company to continue operating were in full support of the company which is questionable, The low number of shares that were voted illustrate that most shareholders are disinterested in the long term future of UKOG.

Another flaw in your argument is that shareholders are individuals that hold a certain number of shares - the number of shares voted in either case does not necessarily equate to the number of investors. It's possible those with larger shareholdings were more likely to be in favour of the status quo (eg PW- if they still have shares) ie enabling the BoD to continue with their plans.

By your definition I must support the BoD and everything it does as I was not a supporter rodders campaign, yet.....

I suspect, despite a better response than the AGM/GM voting, many like me would not support an ex-ramper in a campaign seemingly driven by revenge because rodders failed to adequately research beyond UKOG RNS.

MM

are you seriously suggesting that my "Strong Buy" opinion will some how have influence over a grown adults investment decision.........ha ha ha ha ha ha ..........then more fool them.

Why post about Oceanmec posting a picture of another well site (earlier today), or wishing their employees at the Basur site happy Eid? As they didn't mention, or show a picture of Basur, in today's Facebook post surely that's bad news, as in your world the Eid post meant they hadn't stopped work at Basur, so does no mention today mean they've packed up?

'greatly encouraged by Oceanmec's recent Facebook posts which suggest that operations are still underway'

By your definition I must support the BoD and everything it does as I was not a supporter rodders campaign, yet.....

I suspect, despite a better response than the AGM/GM voting, many like me would not support an ex-ramper in a campaign seemingly driven by revenge because rodders failed to adequately research beyond UKOG RNS.