Member Info for Penguins

Ozzy,

That's a lot of words being wrong. You claim to have read my posts for a long time before you started posting. Forewarned is forearmed, maybe if some posters had believed my posts as much as I do in the past..........and ignored the claimed lth who have said over the past nearly 4 years hold and keep buying because it will be more tomorrow.

Knowing that the general direction of travel is down it gives a clue as to what to do when the SP goes up. I'll leave skwizz to explain.

I must be silly, but rather than hope charts or belief or hope will somehow predict a well's success I prefer to try and understand whether, or what that success may be. Forewarned is forearmed in O&G.

Ocelot,
Nobody knows how many naysayers, as you call them, are shareholders - I am a shareholder and will profit from a rise in the SP, but don’t try to engender FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) like some posters by claiming, sometimes incessantly, that the SP will rise (often soon) - sometimes to a price outcome, or just a rerate - but never explain what needs to happen (rather than rig arrival or an initial ‘success’ creating a short term spike) for the SP to achieve the price or ambition quoted. Perhaps not surprising as UKOG are just as vague.

I believe I’m realistic in my expectations, I’ve given my reasons why it may not be very successful, or even successful at all, what that may be, and what it’s based on – but also expect that at some point the P&D herd will arrive which may offer a better opportunity.

I’m a great believer in under promising and over delivery. UKOG are suggesting the Turkey adventure will be 'transformation' and have 100s of millions of value - something they can’t guarantee, and risking once again over promising and under delivering.

Ocelot,

'It may indicate that they have knowledge of something so they think it is inappropriate for them to buy at present.'

the reason the purchase day is pre ordained (first Friday in a month, which was expected to be July 2 in the RNS) is precisely to avoid suspicion that they are trading the share on insider knowledge.

Not proceeding with it as expected leaves a suspicion that they decided on the basis of insider knowledge to not proceed.

I would prefer that once they have chosen an amount between 5% and 10% (or whatever lower or upper limit is decided) it is fixed for the whole term of the scheme as the rules appear to suggest they can still increase or decrease the amount spent depending on the knowledge they have. If they went from 5% to 10% one month it might be based on knowledge of good news - or it might not and deceive the market into inferring that good news was coming - a lose - lose situation in terms of credibility of the scheme.

Mirasol,

Yet there's maps of Loxley and Arreton (though I'm still waiting for the map with the prospect 4 times as big as Arreton South to the west of Arreton claimed by UKOG).

I suspect it's for the same reason as Ekofisk though. Seismic data in thrust belts with relatively steeply dipping faulted structures and rapidly changing surface elevations won't be as pretty as the seismic in the Weald, and even that can be tricky - look at the difference between the latest HH mapping and that prior to drilling HH-2z. HH-2z was meant to be in a flattish area and up dip of HH-1, ended up down dip and dipping down from heel to toe.

SRBS,

I have no idea what trades or when you posted about them but the rule is don't post real-time data and that means not for 15 minutes, the delay before the cheap seats see trades.

But as for B*******t, if you think anything posted is wrong put up an alternative view - or better still fact. The issue isn't that the 'alternative' view is held by xr members, shorters, swampies - it seems they just have a better understanding of the information UKOG do disseminate, and research other resources and are prepared to post their views rather than make hollow claims about the SP, or other posters - and significantly almost always both are wrong - though of course I'm only guessing that other posters accused of being xr etc aren't.

Mullins,

You would be in an echo chamber wondering why the SP goes down when the only news is good news.

Don't worry there will be plenty of like minded posters here when the next P&D herd arrives, discovering on twitter that a chart (or something else) shows the SP will go up if enough investors buy(!) presumably so those instigating the rally can sell - why would you want the SP rise and then buy? odd that they then disappear leaving a few stragglers each time who eventually realise that game is over and realise they've been had.

Tony,

It may have escaped your notice that in the diagram in the 23/7/20 presentation the well is located in the valley because the culmination of the Basur anticline has been eroded at surface, with presumably harder, or less fractured layers forming the hills either side, presumably where Basur-3 is located.

But the subsurface is probably complex and thrust belt folds may (and often do) 'lean' over so the axis of the surface expression is offset to the subsurface culmination. Let's hope their subsurface mapping, which they have declined to show, is right.

Tony,

You'll also note that the original target of the wells on Basur / Resan was the Garzan. As all the other Garzan fields mentioned in the area by UKOG were discovered prior to Basur-1 it looks like there was insufficient encouragement from any of the up to 7 wells drilled on the Basur / Resan surface expression to develop the Garzan as it had been elsewhere (or the Mardin which at that time was a new play).

Maybe there were shows, but UKOG, despite having records from the previous wells, even if they are poor, are uncommunicative as to much detail of these wells - restricted to a short flow in the Mardin and oil shows in some of the other wells in the Mardin.

The usual caveats are I suppose anything 'might happen - it's $3.5mm on the roulette wheel of appraisal(ish), is it black/red or just a single number. Sometimes it comes up zero.

TS,

I thought you had more at 1.34p, maybe this time - like marriages - it will come good.

TS,

It isn't educated guesswork though. It's using data from one location and using regional knowledge to apply it to another. Yes it can be wrong but the 'guess' is data driven. Just because UKOG doesn't inform its owners of the expected flow rates from Basur-3 doesn't mean they don't have them, but then the question would be how reliable is UKOG's reporting.

You might point to the expected flow rates issued for HH wells as proof that it's nothing more than wild guesswork but UKOG only released what it chose to. I can't imagine that Xodus said, for instance, 720 to 1080bopd from a horizontal at HH without any other outcomes or caveats - and as time went on the range was dropped for more obscure 2 to 3 times an unspecified number - and in fact the caveat was that the 2 to 3 times was actually a 'rule of thumb' - not data driven.

You must have a huge number of shares representing a large investment in something you don't understand if you averaged down from 1.34p to 0.46p so I hope that the outcome at Basur-3 is indeed transformational and doesn't 'behave' like E Sadak.

Ocelot,

Given the 22% discount and the increase to nearly 16 billion shares tomorrow it was a valid 'preoccupation'. You also posted quite a bit about the raise prior to it happening and 35 times on this board since 7 am Monday, quite a few about the cash raise.

Interesting posters think that all buys and no shift in SP is a good thing - there's billions of shares to shift and buyers at this level could be exhausted fairly quickly, and that won't mean those waiting in the shadows want to pay more.

There's also a good chance that the spread is very tight and some of the 0.183 'buys' are sells. Haven't gone in and done a dummy sell or buy this morning. During Monday when I did the real spread was 0.1815p to 0.183, only 15 thousandths of a penny for a decent sell or buy.

TS,

You have previously said you know nothing about O&G E&P.

The thing is it isn't 'just guesswork' in exploration, and should be even less so in appraisal.

You may think there's no significance in UKOG identifying E Sadak as an analogue to Basur / Resan when they RNS that it is a geological and producing lookalike. However analogues give an indication of what might be expected where the company is drilling, and will have been used by UKOG (and AME) in their economic assessment. The levels of production at E Sadak are no doubt economic but has required a lot of drilling to achieve and I suspect a large amount of the revenue has gone in CAPEX and OPEX and will continue to do so to maintain production levels. If E Sadak was a transformational field why would AME not spend $3.5mm of the profits on drilling Basur-3 - probably because E Sadak swallows up most of the profits drilling to keep production up.

'Will we get a Gusher ! only time will tell. ATB'

Yet gusher reminds me of the 'Gatwick Gusher' that once in production average flow halved in 6 months from the lofty heights of over 300bopd, and a year later managed an average of just over 100bopd and a water cut of 32%.

Looking at the few wells in the producing lookalike E Sadak Field where information is available that also might be the best Basur-3 can manage in production.

Just realised the 'expected' wasn't a joke.

'Consequently, the first DDSPP purchase is expected to occur on Friday July 2nd, 2021 and the final purchase on Friday June 3rd, 2022.'

So maybe yet another expectation not achieved - showing pi they have faith in the company low on their list of priorities.

Unfortunately UKOG don't do sorry we missed that deadline / flow rate /well being drilled when something doesn't happen just
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silence.

Cyan2,

'Why would the board buy on Friday 2nd July knowing that a placing was in the offing ?'

I hope you're being sarcastic as that is called insider dealing. I would go further - my suggestion would be the company issue shares at 2p (approx equivalent to the mcap at the peak in 2017 - hudreds of millions of value) for them to buy as an incentive to return shareholder value - they could also be available to any other shareholder at the same price in an open offer!

I suspect they are just a bit slow in issuing the RNS, showing pi they have faith in the company low on their list of priorities - maybe SS had to open a dealing account as he had no need previously.

Tollesbury,

Erm, in the June 2020 interim results did they mention that HH-1 was producing water in June, although they mentioned other post period activities. In fact have they even mentioned in RNS how much water is being produced, and come to that what average flow rates of oil are since mentioning that HH-1 was producing over 300bopd at the start of production.

If posters didn't mention what was released by the OGA that information wouldn't be known to anyone that didn't realise the information was available.

I suppose it comes down to what UKOG consider they are obliged to RNS vs what you or I might want to know. Appears they are judge and jury on that. E Sadak is after all not Resan Basur so what they choose to say is up to them.

Intentionally deceive is a very strong accusation.

Oops,

That should be 'faites vos jeux' - autocorrect doesn't like French.

Ocelot,

'AME’s E. Sadak field in production within 1 month of well finish, official production consent in 7 months (yesterday's presentation).'

Understandable, but still UKOG fail to mention that the first well that commenced production, E Sadak-1, averaged about 60bopd in early production, but rapidly reduced to about 30bopd. Production figure for the E Sadak field in September 2020 was about 420bopd from 8 production wells that AME identified in a presentation at the end of 2020).

They could have parked a tanker at the site and trucked it away every few days to 'start production'.

UKOG are playing games using E Sadak as an example when is suits them, but keeping quiet about important information from this field they have called a producing lookalike (16/4/2021:-'AME's success at their East Sadak field, the closest producing look alike field to Basur-Resan.'

One thing though - just noticed (courtesy of twitter) that the Mardin in Basur-1 is shown at 1250m below ground in a the geological x-section in UKOG's first presentation. That's about 2 fifths of the depths of the wells at E Sadak so first results for the Garzan could be quite soon if that's correct (and not used a TVDSS as a TVDKB). Being a lot shallower may be good for drilling but not so good for production.

Fait vos jeux.

Ocelot,

Luckily history never repeats itself, 2 July 2018 (leading up to the HH testing) £5mm fundraise, 4 July 2018 £2mm fundraise.

Here's what you posted 2 July 2018.

ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 14,819
Price: 2.30 No Opinion
RE: One thing 02 Jul 2018 18:15
"... given UKOG's current plans, mean that it has sufficient working capital for the next 18 months". (the RNS).
Today is 02/07/18.
The next 18 months takes us through to the end of 2019, "given UKOG's current plans"'

Yet they raised and raised and raised, including 2 days later.

Enjoy your cocoa. nite nite!