Member Info for Penguins

Ibug,

Do you think AME would carry on drilling if Steve backed out?

Surely they would prefer to share the penalty cost with UKOG.

The alternative might be another drill in 2022 not funded by a successful outcome but an encouraging one, keeping the salary coming in.

TH2,

Not sure it's expertise paying 100% for the risky first appraisal well. In the announcement of the deal the cost to get out of drilling the remaining wells was clearly mentioned.

I seem to remember in 2019 UKOG had a plan to drill 8 to 10 new appraisal and production wells by now in the Weald

Only one drilled, and that was a production well (so should have a near 100% COS) now waiting to be used as a water disposal and hopefully pressure support injector.

TH2,

'UKOG are the experts to help facilitate that'

Comedy gold.

Ocelot,

I try and give an honest opinion about the technical side of E&P, what the market does may be unrelated to the likely outcome.

What's your excuse.

Ocelot,

'If UKOG hadn't bought its way into the licence, you could have argued that the licence was obviously worthless because AME hadn't required UKOG to pay any premium for its 50% share.'

You're missing the point unless someone paid 100% AME weren't about to drill the well, if there was any sign they were UKOG should have bargained harder, but AME found a company with no experience of Turkey to pay 100% - I can't see anything positive in that.

You say negative - for years I've said realistic.

any idea what the timescale is for a negative post to become reality?

Or perhaps the timescale for a positive post to be proved right?

Ocelot,

AME are indeed not UKOG but it's a reasonable assumption that the appraisal well was farmed out because it didn't pass AME's economic criteria even though, or perhaps because, they operate the adjacent E Sadak field. So the drill may only be happening because UKOG's farmed in and payed 100% for the well. As long as the well and seismic cost remains below $5mm AME have little or no exposure to the well, UKOG even claiming to be designing the well.

'Some see things half full, some see them half empty, that's life, as Frank Sinatra would sing.'

Those that for the past several years have held on because they believe the glass is half full story are probably dismayed to find the glass not half full, not half empty, but with hardly anything left as SS evaporated the contents.

Mirasol,

We don't know what the well design is, how deep, casing points, coring but 30 to 40 days seems a reasonable estimate, results definitely not next Monday, next week and possibly not next month, but if this is a cheap finder well (not designed for production) it could be sooner, if there's a lot of coring could be longer..

The photos from the video of the rig, regardless of what is happening at Basur, is not from the Basur well site. The rig in the photo is not on a concrete pad, and the layout of containers, and surface composition, looks remarkably similar to the rig in this video on Oceanmec's Facebook page from May 2021:-

https://www.facebook.com/oceanmecenergy/videos/2703624973261898

Obviously it's easy to fool those that are desperate to believe, it's worked for years, why stop now.

Whilst it's understandable that many posters prefer to post about OP, SP and how easy, cheap and (apparently) quick it is to drill in Turkey because UKOG for some reason have said very little about the Basur-3 well none of these would stop a decent prospect being drilled nor affect the outcome (except OP and that's debateable). If anything it might just mean a poorer prospect is drilled.

So has UKOG participated in this well because it's irresistible because it enables, at least for a short time definite positive news of site prep, rig turning up, spud and even oil show - hopefully, or because it has a chance of being transformational?

No technical information from UKOG about the well they claim they are involved in the design and delivery of:- 'the Company will now focus its efforts in the first half of 2021 towards the design and delivery of the Basur-3 appraisal well' and no expectations of flow rates for a supposed appraisal well of a structure already drilled multiple times with oil shows, and a few hours flow from Basur-1. Though positive oil shows etc have not meant AME, who operate the adjacent E Sadak field and must have a lot of data about the reservoir, were willing to fund the appraisal well.

Seems the twitter P&D team needed to get this share moving are not yet interested, just the B ramping team is here, like touts outside a second division ground, promising discounted tickets and a premiership game.

Ocelot,

encouraging results are what happened at HH, BB and other Weald sites. They weren't that great in the long term.

Oil companies like 'encouraging' as it gives an excuse to 1) delay the bad news, and 2) drill another well delaying the bad news even longer.

Tony,

'Whilst hitting oil is a gamble , the odds are better in Turkey'

Do you have the statistics to back that sort of statement up? The question should surely be with wells so cheap, all the previous wells which make Basur-3 just an appraisal, speed and ease of permissions, and a producing field next door operated by them why hasn't AME (or any other operator spotted this irrisistible opportunity) drilled Basur-3 before.

Presumably risk, and in AME's case wanting someone else to play for this cheap well.

SRBS,

Judging by what he posts other than RNS it looks like he is enjoying being silly in public.

But he's destroying the ramping by filling the board with repetitive posts - will anyone bother to scroll down to read your earlier post?

At least those that have got fed up with LS's silly games only have multiple green stripes to confirm they've done the right thing, but rampers will have to wade through the dross to 'like' other rampers posts.

Even Ozzy who I briefly filtered wasn't as repetitive as LS.

SRBS

Perhaps this news on 21st May where UKOG state, before they have the authority to do so, that they will require further funds in the near future:-

'In order to deliver the Company’s stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner.'

Shortly afterwards, near future, expected to continue throughout this week.

All non-specific periods of time - even throughout this week is only 'expected' (an oft used word by UKOG).

We shall see, maybe the announcement of a fund raise at the same time as spud, UKOG are hardly accurate in any of their predictions if they are more than a few days away.

We've even waited at least 6 months from the expected spud announced 11 months ago:-

'Drilling and seismic are therefore expected to commence before the end of this year'

as for the determination on the application for licences that was going to be announced 60 days after 10th December, must be about 190 days by now:-

'we await formal notification as to which licence or licences, if any, are awarded to AME/UKOG. Notification is expected within 60 days'

Ocelot & LS,

The oil is there, yes in the previous wells (all of them?), but unless they are drilling beside a well that has previously found oil it is quite possible to not find oil. They haven't shown any maps and the structure is probably complex, and I would imagine the seismic used for the maps isn't very good.

Obviously they will try make sure that their target is in an area they believe will be within the structural closure and find oil but appraisal and even development wells have been failures, and of course finding oil is only the start. Seems some of the E Sadak wells missed the structure.

Yes, that is what the drill is all about,hopes to find:

'1/ some oil; and

2/ possibly commerciality.

maybe a month to wait for 1), and if 1) happens then maybe a couple of months to 2) to find out if it's commercial.

Not sure if that's not much longer.

Ocelot,

'True, even the principal naysayers appear to accept that the partners are likely to find oil (even CynderLad put the chances against finding oil at only 80%+).'

for a well the company classify as an appraisal 'finding oil' is a very low bar.

IMaybe that's 'success in your book and in that case UKOG have been very successful so far finding oil at Broadford Bridge and at Horse Hill. After that things haven't gone so well.

If only it was that easy as finding oil.

UKOG's whole portfolio of new projects is based on previous wells discovering oil (Loxley, Arreton, Basur and Resan) - all of which have already been subject to appraisal, which has not lead to development. The claim thatf new technology being applied to Horse Hill hasn't shown much promise so far, and

This is great for the P&D brigade, in and out on an oil show RNS, but for the future of the company it isn't such a fantastic plan.

As for:-

Yes, that is what the drill is all about, to prove:

'1/ hydrocarbon volume; and

2/ commerciality.

Not much longer to wait now.'

In fact the well will be only step on the way to 'prove' an OIP volume, and I think it's hoping to prove commerciality.

Of course the Portland was declared commercial in 2018 - which to some meant thousands of barrels of oil being produced, but seems to be an average of under 100bopd.

There's hope the injector/water disposal may improve that, as per the new normal UKOG give no guidance as to when or what improvement that might achieve.

Why would AME with a report that says that this well is going to confirm 37mmbbls recoverable - 9mmbbls more recoverable than the E Sadak field where AME have about 88% equity - hand over 50% of such a sure fire winner for a few million dollars, why did their partner exit the license? There must be some pretty big drawbacks that UKOG are keeping to themselves - something I can't imagine them doing - hold on............

They don't know how much oil is down there yet then claim 37mmbbls recoverable when they probably have even less idea what recovery is likely to be.

Seems garbage in - garbage out might be a reasonable assessment.

The well is to find out if the oil is producible commercially, like the Kimmeridge OIP is a big number and theoretically a few percent is recoverable but getting that few percent might require a huge number of wells. I wonder what percentage of the 28mmbbls theoretically recoverable oil E Sadak has managed to produce in the seven years since discovery with maybe 13 wells drilled on it.

In the 4 years of data available in scout reports total production was just under 500,000bbls.

In the best six months in the available data total production was 150,000bbls, so say every 6 months in the missing 3 years of data data production was that, that's an additional 900,000 in 3 years, so say 1.4mmbbls or 5% of the recoverable figure in 7 years and 13 wells (I would be surprised if the missing production was 900,000bbls). Extrapolating that to recover the 28mmbbls that's 133 more years and maybe 200+ wells.

Of course if UKOG would let investors know the actual production etc of this geological and producing lookalike field they like to quote selected information from we would be able to better understand the investment case.

Probably AME see Resan/Basur as likely worse than E Sadak and that's why they wanted someone else to pay for the first well on Basur/Resan.

PS I'm pleased the SP is rising - predicting when it will drop is the gamble now - obviously it has nothing to do with the above for a while.

Here's an alternative to UKOG's RNS, with some things the company could have said and done, but haven't:-

Following completion of the Basur-3 appraisal well's drilling pad some weeks ago we have persuaded AME to finalise the rig contract. Oceanmec Karahan ZJ40DZ rig has now been mobilised from western Turkey to the site despite having previously stated ‘AME owns and operates drilling and workover rigs, testing and cementing units, enabling quick and low cost well operations’. As of 2359 hrs on Saturday 19th June 38 related loads had been received at site, further loads are required. The rig-up and rig-acceptance stage is expected to continue throughout the coming week with a drilling start shortly afterwards (or is that soon afterwards?)

Basur-3 will be the first modern well designed to properly appraise and assess the extent and commercial viability of the discovered Basur-Resan oil pool. However the adjacent E Sadak field which we consider a geological and producing lookalike has been drilled many times since discovery in 2014 using modern techniques. The latest(?) E Sadak-13 well (spud 25/10/2020 is currently producing (?bopd or maybe nothing). The Basur-3 well will test the north-western structural culmination of the 60 km² Basur-Resan geological structure (surface expression?), approximately 1.2 km north and geologically updip (not structurally?) from the 1964 Basur-1 oil discovery well. We have produced a presentation showing our structural mapping and examples of the 21st century seismic we are relying on to map the subsurface for this mapping, and other technical details of the proposed well, this will be available on the web site.

As detailed in the Company's 14 October 2020 and 15 January 2021 releases, Basur-1 produced 500 barrels of oil from a short 6-hour test which was terminated due to the production of water. Further wells drilled in the 1950s to the southwest within the Resan area of the structure reported good oil shows at comparable depths to those at Basur, with one well recovering live oil to surface. The Basur-2 appraisal well was (presumably) unsuccessful / dry.

We’re hoping this well is luckier than all the previous wells on Basur Resan because it's new and old wells were useless (except that the 3 fields mentioned in UKOG's first Turkey presentation (slide 10) which were discovered in the 40's, 50's and 60's).

However despite this well being designated as an appraisal well we are not prepared to mention possible flow rates from this fractured carbonate field as we were so wrong about the fractured carbonate Kimmeridge micrites, and even the fractured sandstones of the Portland.

Member Info for Lucky-Strike
Posts (Last 30 Days ) 490
Posts (All Time) 501
Last Post 22nd Jun 2021
Member Since 27th May 2021

How many posts do new accounts come from the same rampers?

Less than a month (new account?) and 500+ posts. Pretty obvious what Lucky Strike's agenda is.

Along with Ocelot LS has about 30% percent of posts in the last month on ANGS (319 out of about 1080) and now building up on UKOG - today they're 37 out of the 109 though it's hard to keep up.

Admittedly the majority of these posts are LS not Ocelot.

Interim results next week, and OGA figures for the ex-flagship ex-transformational production at HH.

Of course Basur-3 is now the 'interesting' news which will, like HH and BB drilling, ultimately determine whether any rise in the SP is sustainable.

Both these wells had multiple positive RNS, BB with oil shows and oil recovered to surface and a 'production' completion and a sidetrack before being shut in and left for 3 years with no sign of further activity, and HH tested for months with highly selective flow rates mentioned and predictions of production flow rates never achieved.

Like Turkey SS claimed of 100s of millions of value in the Weald. Are pi considered so gullible (or forgetful) all they need to do is change the name, not the message?

Only when the twitter brigade join in will the rig arrival P&D really get under way - looks like they're waiting for the placing before joining the party.

LS,

'All you seem to do is read the company’s output and parrot it on these sites'

Not sure who that might be directed at – but seems a strange comment after posting a paragraph from a UKOG RNS - twice.

But it shouldn't take long investigating the Turkish adventure as UKOG have issued few details about Basur and practically zero justification for the few details released.

They have stated an areal extent of the ‘geological structure’ – presumably the surface feature – but have shown no subsurface mapping which hopefully has been used to generate the previously published volumetrics – though they have also based recoveries on those seen from the large Kurdistan fields.

They’ve commented on previous drilling on Resan / Basur but give no details of how many wells and their findings vs the single successful test of basut-1 which was terminated when water was produced, and a further well that recovered oil to the surface on the Resan part of the feature.

They have also quoted OPEX costs and an ‘up to’ initial test rate from the adjacent E Sadak field discovered in 2014 and operated by AME, and said it is a geological and producing lookalike to justify using this data, but have given no details of production. E Sadak has had maybe 13+ wells drilled so far, including very recent, presumably ‘modern standard’, wells.

PS – don’t bother to ask why I’m invested’ as investment is a highly inaccurate description – it’s a gamble and as I’ve frequently stated I gamble based spikes vs my view of the likely outcomes, not necessarily based on what UKOG claim will happen – though apart from arm waving claims of transformational 100s of millions of irresistible value UKOG have so far not mentioned what they expect from a well they claim is appraising a discovery.

Of course the SP rising (spike?) based on rig arrival has been predicted and there will no doubt be others along the way, but ultimately Basur-3 needs to be economically successful for a long term rise in the SP which won't be known for some time.