Member Info for Penguins

Ocelot,

Well done, you were right, at least the rig has arrived before the placing. Will it spud before a placing though?

But the hard part is now approaching with the need to test oil at a reasonable rate, though as HH and the nearby lookalike producing field (E SadK) has demonstrated fractured reservoirs as predicted at Basur can test and initially produce at far higher rates than long term.

The last paragraph got a it muddled up, I was going to add a quote from ocelot but I posted mid change. Should read: :-

Every now and then there are days when a large percentage of shares change hands eg in April, from ocelot:-
'RE: top up 09 Apr 2021 14:43
95.2% of issued capital has changed hands during today and the previous 5 sessions'

No doubt it will happen in the future. Is that perhaps not an indication that a large percentage of SH at any one time have no interest in the board (or probably the company, or any 'success') let alone support them - although a P&D based on a dodgy tweet or interview is probably appreciated - but are just here to trade.

Ocelot,

Ultimately the SP performance depends on actual results. If the SP rises because of a P&D as happened in April - that's not the company succeeding, nor are rises because of expectation of success as is anticipated for the rig arrival.

UKOG has a history of rises based not on success of the company but by essentially pi being mislead or perhaps misunderstanding what was happening.

You may consider that success enough as long as you sell before the enevitable fall in SP as reality catches up with false hope - and those who believe rather than trade sit on the 'choo choo' as it reverses into the sidings.

As far as the current mcap (and SP) is concerned UKOG put a current value of under £5mm on their only operated producing asset. They have some equipment and Horndean production but the value of these do not add up to the current mcap of £24mm.

Every now and then there are days when a large percentage of shares change hands. No doubt it will happen in the future (a large number of share 'changing hands') Is that perhaps not an indication that a large percentage of SH at any one time have no interest in the board let alone support them - although a P&D based on a dodgy tweet or interview is probably appreciated - but are just here to trade.

Ocelot,

despite Alba's BOD deciding a value for their 11.765% of HH of £4mm, based presumably on tea leaves, UKOG have arrived at a NPV valuation that is not a nice round number of £4.783mm for 85.64%(£5.558mm 100%) - £657,000 for 11.765%, somewhat different to that decided by Alba's BOD. Seems there's a lot more than HH even in the current mcap so it's essential Basur-3 is successful -how successful is interesting as has Turkey also been 'overblown' with expectations probably far higher than the likely outcome, though 'positive' posters seem to shy away from communicating what a 'good' successful outcome would be, preferring to refer to charts and previous share price movements or a SP at some unspecified time in the future.

But how many 'investors' read this board and are swayed by posts including those you so obviously disagree with. Presumably not many as there have been many occasions when an RNS as been released and the board is alight with posters claiming how 'good' it is and dismayed that the SP then drops. Seems the 'naysayers' also exist beyond this board.

Of course the April rise was a dress rehearsal for the rig arrival P&D - with posters here repeating the Zak Mir predictions from 6 April all the way through the spike, with similar posts to this by you:-

RE: The SP has the ability to rise and quickly 10 Apr 2021 06:53
UKOG has arisen from its slumber in spectacular fashion.
Personally, I think the last few days constitute a definitive break with its share price performance of the last very many months.
Having broken through the 200-day moving average (of 0.167p at the time) for the first time in 17 months, it is now heading upwards.
How high will it go? Zak Mir suggested 0.90p as a target by the end of next month. I think he may well be right.......'

Tweeters like Zak Mir and his followers on twitter (and here) have far greater reach than LSE posts.

No sensible poster would reveal anything that could identify them.

But my enthusiasm for O&G E&P allows me to understand that outcomes range from certain (extremely rarely though you wouldn’t know that from UKOG utterings) through probable and possible to unlikely, even very unlikely.

So of course it's possible the rig could arrive before a placing, but it's unlikely.

Same goes for Basur-3 - it is probably going to be successful, but that success, based on the producing lookalike, is likely to be in the range 60bopd to 500bopd in initial production - probably around 250bopd, but will probably decline rapidly to less than half the initial production rate.

Explaining this uncertainty in exploration and expected production is what UKOG should be doing - and is lacking in interviews and RNS about Turkey, and was, and still is, absent in interviews and RNS about the Weald.

I have an opinion about your likes and dislikes, that is plainly not the same as deciding them for you.
The CLN announced 15 November 2017 was for:- ‘the completion of the BB-1z flow tests, the forthcoming production testing and appraisal drilling programme at Horse Hill and the drilling and testing of the Holmwood exploration prospect

Closing SP 14 November 4.996p (yes nearly 5p)
Closing SP 15 November 4.45p
But of course the steady drip of the CLN conversions and poor BB announcements had a longer term impact resulting in a SP in spring 2018 under 2p.

There were 2 then placings just before the ewt commenced, in all likelihood they held the SP back,
The first placing was on 15 June 2018 at 07:00. The price on 13th June was about a penny. The price had risen on 14th June to close at 1.5p or so, on 15th June the SP dropped to 1.125p.
The market assumed the fund raising was over but on Monday 2 July a further fundraise was announced, just before COB. Closing price 2 July 2018 2.3p, by Friday July 6 closing price was 1.9p - 17% lower.

So the evidence is clear that cash raising drops the SP.

Not sure what you are rambling on about the 8 billion share placing as you posted earlier:-‘A 8 billion share placing at 3p would give the company £240 million in working capital think on?’

HH1AN2,

whatever it is (a truck, too small for a viewing platform) it's not on the concrete - funny no one mentioned the empty site last Sunday.

I know it might be exciting to be backed up by ozzy (no opinion) 52 and Troll (SP that is never achieved) hunter - but rejoicing in someone else losing money - even though shorting UKOG is, as I understand it, not possible - is particularly unpleasant.

The posters you seem to dislike have in the main been more accurate in their assessment of UKOG than you and those you seem to admire - except of course ozzy who has failed to give any idea of expected outcomes because it hasn't happened yet, so why he is supportive of your claim of UKOG raising £240million by a placing of 8 billion shares at 3p I'm not sure, especially as UKOG are obliged to sell some to the pi.

Whilst past performance in UKOG's case has so far been a very good indicator of current performance and seeing no change probably means the future as well, the performance of other company's shares is definitely no indicator of what might happen here - though I note that 88E's SP dropped very quickly from around 4p, which held for only a few days, to much less than 2p in a day and is now slowly subsiding towards 1p and possibly beyond.

That's more important to remember than the brief high, but of no consequence to lth who hold through thin and thin.

Wizard,

'The drill in Turkey was not even mentioned at that stage but is scheduled by the end of this month!

I think the reasons why are obvious.'

Indeed, the Weald is overblown and Turkey is next for expectations to be too high - eg 'transformational'.

Ocelot,

a company stating immediate future when it didn't have authority to do a placing until after a meeting over 2 weeks in the future would be odd. Near future doesn't exactly sound as though it isn't needed for a while.

But maybe you're right the placing will be after the drill arrives - stranger things have happened, certainly never say never - but why would anyone agree a placing just after the rig arrival which is likely to see the SP rise, if only temporarily, when there would be more opportunity to sell during a (likely) rig arrival P&D. (PS Ozzy the reason to consider gambling)

Maybe they'll announce the placing and rig arrival at the same time allowing the placee to (forward) sell into the (hoped for) rise - even though forward selling will be explicitly forbidden.

Nobody knows until it happens, unless there's a leak.

As for timing I suspect that the Turkish authorities would allow a delay if needed for any reason as the site has been prepared indicating intention to drill.

As for blatant misleading (or missing out the bad news) here's why the horizontal was stopped in the RS of 12 November 2019:-

'The good, clean horizontal trajectory, together with the continued indications of possible improved reservoir quality and significantly lower pressure-depletion than expected, led the Company to decide that there was little technical or economic benefit in pursuing drilling to the maximum planned c. 3,000 ft horizontal trajectory'

Whereas in the 2019 - 2020 annual review somewhat different:-

'The horizontal drilling of the Portland HH-2z was completed in November 2019, with the length of the horizontal curtailed by the intersection with natural fractures in the reservoir and the onset of drilling mud losses at the toe of the well.'

The November version is misleading (and looks untrue - the reason for the decision was not as stated) and meant the 23 December 2019 revelation of water ingress (A Merry Xmas to all our Readers) was a surprise to pi if not to UKOG.

Did they forget what they had RNS'd in November?

Jaffy,

Hopefully lower than the herd but I don't have a target and I might just let what I have ride. Watch out for when UKOG twitter stops being filled with ramps for other shares - though even that can fizzle out quickly - and take a view on the 'target' price (here and on twitter) as it's pretty clear that isn't what the herd sell at.

My posts are usually about long term expectations, not trading though.

Really, 4 years ago.

This was the sort of rubbish that sent the SP to the heights of 10p+ that for some reason, despite it being only of academic interest, posters still refer to, if sometimes obliquely.

'RE: Long way to go10 Apr 2021 10:06
There may be a long way to go but we know from the past and from recent trading that UKOG can go a long way in a very short space of time.'

RNS 30/6/2017:-

'I am delighted to inform shareholders that the discovery of light, mobile oil, seeping out of fractured Kimmeridge limestones and shales, corroborates our pre-drill prediction that both BB-1 and HH-1 are likely part of the same Kimmeridge oil deposit. The presence of such mobile oil outside of any structural or stratigraphic trapping mechanism provides significant supportive evidence that the Kimmeridge section across the central area of the Weald Basin contains a continuous oil deposit of national significance. I believe this result will be TRANSFORMATIONAL for the Company.'

Easily said by SS, not so easily delivered

...but it depends who holds the cards as to what the highest price UKOG can get away with is.

UKOG definitely need the cash to fund its obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence, and you only need read the GM notice, not this board, to know that.

Ocelot,

there's a difference between saying a placing is coming, because the company has said one is and has said ir needs one, and wanting one to happen.

No great hurry - or unable to get one away even at a discount to the current SP? Unless you are party to their efforts you are, like me, just guessing - but unlike a seller a buyer of billions of shares will want the lowest price possible?

Despite the OP it's pretty clear that the SP is dropping with the 'real' spread 0.18p to 0.185p. Only 5 trades out of 74 (and less than 2% of the volume) have been above the mid-price of 0.185p today, the last just after midday.

UKOG need to get on and do the placing - I suspect a placee won't be wanting a price based on the rig arrival P&D as every day that passes sees an ever lower 'bargain' price - but maybe that's all part of the plan to get a placing away.

Ocelot,

The operating margin in Turkey is irrelevant to today's profit margin - which is what today's OP determines - which seems to be the title of this thread.

My post was indeed specific to HH.

With no production in Turkey there is no 'extra profit' for UKOG.

But the operating margin for Turkey is derived from the E Sadak field - where production is from about 8 wells and has been operating for about 7 years. I also suspect the operating margin for E Sadak does not include the cost of the wells needing to be drilled on a regular basis to try to maintain production levels for the field because of the rapid decline in production.

There's been no mention of the results of the recent campaign at E Sadak where 2 more wells were planned for late 2020 and 2021 - but as UKOG haven't mentioned anything about production at E Sadak, despite UKOG calling it a producing lookalike that's no surprise - though if the results had been good (whatever that may mean) maybe they would have done.

Ocelot,
UKOG are loose with time scale wording, usually raising expectations of something happening much sooner than it does. As the timescale was given before the GM what phrase could have expressed that the fund raise would be happening in the near term. There's still nearly 2 weeks until a deadline that may be easy to move as long as intent to start drilling is clearly shown.

Time will tell, certainly seems like the market is waiting to see what happens.

You think they were statements as to the situation at the end of last September?

Annual Report and Accounts, For the year ended 30 September 2020:- '....that in the current pricing environment, the significant cost reductions achieved at Horse Hill over the year and the forecast reduction in water handling costs via the conversion of HH-2z into a water injector means that, going forwards, Horse Hill production is forecast to be profitable.'

In the obtuse way UKOG make announcements this means the production from HH-1 in mid April was not profitable 'current pricing environment' - and at the end of the Chief Executive's statement 'Finally, with the prospect of stable profitable production from Horse Hill.....'

Prospect meaning:- 'the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring.'

The Cheif Executives statement has many statements about 'current' (at that time) activities.

Ocelot,

Maybe they are having difficulty getting any interest.

Troll,

Extra profit? Wording in the annual report and accounts indicated in mid April that HH was not then in profit., Has the higher OP moved it into profit?

Zoom:-

'zoom Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 1,734 Price: 0.145
No Opinion
RE: tanker 11 Dec 2020 11:25
If everything is okay I expect UKOG to open up the chokes very slowly over the next few days and we should be up to 2 or more tankers a day. IMO.
GLA.'

average production December, not 430bopd, 82 bopd plus 34 bwpd - even with the water tankers that's only about a tanker every other day.

'zoom
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 1,734
Price: 0.975 No Opinion
RIG 21 Jul 2019 16:46
IF. the rig is at Caythorpe near Bridlington now, it has been there for only 12 working days. that is presuming that the Moor house men work Monday to Friday. I reckon it will be at least another two to three days to drag out those tubes and cut them up, and if so this could be the week that we finally see the rig arrive a HH... This is IMO.
GLA.'

&

'RIG 14 Jun 2019 14:38
It appears to me that we could see the rig on site at HH on Monday morning, because of events at west newton.
I HOPE I,M right.
GLA.'

Rig arrived at the end of September.

&
Price: 0.25 No Opinion
RE: Horse hill ... ongoing plans.... for Kim and Portland 03 May 2021 16:31
Penguins. You are correct, but the figures you quote are way out of date and I will stick to what I believe to be true at this time, and so will stick to my 4p share price for the next 3 weeks.'

The closing mid price SP was 0.2p 3 weeks later

Ocelot,

yes they could also use the funds to support their UK operations - like the GM notice pointed out for next placing:-

'In order to deliver the Company’s stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, AMONGST OTHER THINGS, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner.'

Ocelot,

It's also AIM so being wary of company statements / actions is also nothing unusual.

I wish I had your optimism about the potential of any of the defined projects when it's apparent that UKOG are holding back information. So far it hasn't been a positive when UKOG have failed to be open, and that continues with what is happening at HH, of course that gives certain posters licence to claim that nobody knows what's happening - despite no indication anything has changed.

Ocelot

Beware of the word 'potential'. Until UKOG are clearer about what they expect with an explanation why the outcome should be so different to E Sadak for Basur / Resan and to Godley Bridge fot Loxley that potential might not be significant.

As for geothermal at HH or BB, perhaps some information about why that's going to work - there's a suspicion it's more hot air than hot water.