Member Info for Penguins

Ibug,

I wouldn't get too hung up about a map that AME could have forgotton to update.

But your first sentence still holds true as SNR exited at some point despite having the cashflow and knowledge from the E Sadak field - or perhaps because of it - and no other Turkish company took up the 'irrisistable' opportunity that UKOG did.

Horse Hill

Annual Report and Accounts, For the year ended 30 September 2020:- '....that in the current pricing environment, the significant cost reductions achieved at Horse Hill over the year and the forecast reduction in water handling costs via the conversion of HH-2z into a water injector means that, going forwards, Horse Hill production is forecast to be profitable.'

In the obtuse way UKOG make announcements this means the production from HH-1 in mid April was not profitable - and at the end of the Chief Executive's statement 'Finally, with the prospect of stable profitable production from Horse Hill.....'

Prospect meaning:- 'the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring.'

Brent Crude was over £48 in mid April, now over £51 - so assuming - and I am - that they are producing similar volumes of oil and water to January/February (about 100opd average) that's about £300 per day extra - whether that has made HH profitable nobody outside the company knows.

Placing/Spud

If UKOG announce the spud before a fund raise it would be a surprise as it's pretty clear they need more cash to be able to fund the drill, from the GM notice:-

'In order to deliver the Company’s stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner.'

Any company taking on drilling would want to see enough cash (not hoped for funds) for the drilling before starting, not sure the operator/driller would take a different view.

But why would a placee be happy with a post rig arrival discounted price rather than pre rig arrival discounted price - a condition of the placing might be it has to take place before the rig arrival is announced, let alone spud.

Of course if it took a few days to announce the placing and the rig arrival or spud was then announced - a bit of forward selling would help.

They raised twice

02 July 2018 UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC
("UKOG" or the "Company")
Completion of £5 million Institutional Placing
UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that it has raised gross proceeds of £5 million via a placing including two institutional investors.

Details of the Placing
The issue price of 2 pence per share represents an approximate 5% discount to the closing price on 29th June 2018. A total of 250,000,000 new ordinary shares have been placed. Application will be made for these new ordinary shares to be admitted to trading on AIM and it is anticipated that trading in such shares will commence on or around 9 July 2018.

Use of Proceeds
Together with the funds raised in June, these funds will allow UKOG to embark on its projects' current 18-month work programme.'

The June placing was on 15 June 2018. The price on 13th June was about a penny. The price had risen on 14th June to close at 1.5p or so (note the near apology for the placing price), and the placing did indeed drop the price to less than a penny (about 30%)

So both placings dropped the SP, so why would you buy before a placing. The price did rise in anticipation of the ewt, the placings held the SP back so who knows how high it the SP might have risen above your 2.94p.

'The placing's issue price of 0.9 pence per share represents an approximate 12% discount to the closing price on 13th June 2018, the date the pricing of the issue was determined, and prior to the receipt of the Oil and Gas Authority's Horse hill Extended Flow Test ("EWT") consent as announced on 14th June 2018. A total of 611,111,105 new ordinary shares in UKOG have been placed with new and existing investors.'

Shows how sneaky they can be - raise £5.5mm, and then when the price rises raise another £5mm.

Wizard,

'Maybe there are those who can't remember what happened with the UKOG shareprice after funds were raised for the Horse Hill EWT but the shareprice after touching 1p went to 2.94p.'

But in fact the SP was already rising because of the start of mobilisation of kit for the ewt. Closing price when the fund raise was announced ar 16:18 on 2 July 2018 2.3p, July 6 closing price 1.9p - 17% lower. You would have had to be careful to have made a profit as the SP was fairly volatile following 2 July with the SP eventually dropping below 2.3p (closing price) on 13 September 2018, it never again reached 2.3. Apart from odd spikes that marked the start of the steady decline to the recent lows some 30 months later, only a change of course and more vague promises has helped the SP recover to less than a tenth of the early ewt SP.

Obviously short term traders were happy but there were a lot of posters predicting the only way the SP was going was up - based on what UKOG said. Hanging around for the expected ewt results was not a good idea though.

Tony

not sure the current board was chosen using such a rigorous process. Aren't they all DL placements.

Anyway what happens tomorrow and soon after is more pressing, I don't expect rodders to get sufficient support - it's too late, it should have been done whilst rodders was sill ramping on here and then twitter.

First off will there be a 7am RNS tomorrow postponing (can they cancel?)the meeting. If not I'd expect the 2 resolutions to be passed and then the placing, and the open offer.

If they go through with it and resolution 2 is rejected it will be up to UKOG to propose something else.

If the meeting is postponed they will have to reschedule and a new voting deadline given. Not sure if it would be a completely new vote.

'(1) All times shown in this Document are London times unless otherwise stated. The dates and times given are indicative only and are based on the Company’s current expectations and may be subject to change. If any of the times and/or date above changes. The revised times and/or dates will be notified to Shareholders by announcement through the Regulatory Information Service of the London Stock Exchange.
(2) If the General Meeting is adjourned, the latest time and date for receipt of forms of proxy for the adjourned meeting will be notified to Shareholders by announcement through the Regulatory Information Service of the London Stock Exchange

Interesting times.

Ozzy,

Ozzy today 10:59:-
'Penguin, oh and i didn't say where the information would be coming from, i stated who will be doing the drilling'

Ozzy today 08:44:-
'bring it on, all day, the drill will do my talking, and the technical data will follow...from AME that will be good because you don't believe UKOG'

'the technical data will follow...from AME' seems very much like you are saying the technical data will come from AME - and not from UKOG because in your opinion whoever you were responding to didn't believe UKOG.

Ozzy today: 10:59:-
'As for 'As for "waiting", yes waiting for news of the current project.....that's what investors do don't you know'

No, I suspect real investors read as much as they can to have an inkling of what might happen, and if they wish post it - which won't necessarily be what the company says, real investors might also respond with specific points to posts they don't agree with, not spend all their time criticising and trying to insult other posters.

16 out of now 37 posts today are courtesy of Ocelot and Ozzy52, 19 out of 44 yesterday.

Ozzy 16:59:-
'So whose the most obsessive......more twisted facts, like the majority of your post.'

'To be so obsessed to post multiple times some days doesn't strike me as someone who is waiting to see what happens' was my opinion - and yes this month so far I have posted slightly more often than you on this board on a variety of subjects (though since mid November only about 500, not the over 1,000 you have posted)- mostly technical, some financial, some about fund raising, some about the AGM and GM, some responding to posts - and I am interested in what might happen, which is the reason why and behind the majority of what I post - you may be happy to wait and see and just post about other posters - but sometimes (rarely) posters do discuss UKOG on what is described above (in the PC version) as a board for:-

'Share Discussion for Uk Oil & Gas'

Can someone who claims they are just waiting to see what happens, but nevertheless only feels the need to comment disparagingly about posters whose opinions they disagree with be anything but the opposite of what they say those posters are?

At what point does realistic commentary become naysaying, or perhaps more accurately is when does naysaying become realistic commentary? Seems the answer to that has been - just wait a while.

To be so obsessed to post multiple times some days doesn't strike me as someone who is waiting to see what happens. Just to consider a post negative means that what is in that post is somehow below the 'critics' expectation.

Ozzy,

Unfortunately we won't get the information from AME - UKOG will be the arbiters of what is fit for pi consumption, just as they always have.

Also in my case it isn't not 'believing' UKOG, experience (blah blah blah past) shows they are choosy as to what information they release, or do you think they didn't know HH-1 was producing a high water cut on 30 June 2020 or even 1st October RNS when there was no mention, or currently they don't know the production from E Sadak the producing lookalike. Could it be because like you they believe it to be negative information and shouldn't be mentioned?

Ocelot,

Whilst the other resolutions garnered massive support from the just under 5% who voted resolution 6 was withdrawn. Obviously resolution 6 was defeated because of the disapplication of preemption rights, but the level of authority, £300,000 was passed.

The question is will resolution 1 the revised level of authority be supported, as well as resolution 2.

Will all those agreeing to resolution 5 at the AGM be happy with the 166% increase in authority to issue shares is an unknown. Is there an overlap between rodders under 5% and the shares cast at the AGM (less than 5%) or could these disgruntled disrupters decide to make a first strike by voting against the resolutions which could upset the inherent support for resolution 1 and possible support reversal for resolution 2.

But you can't assume anything about a silent majority view, will they rise up and support the the board, or not, or more likely remain silent.

However if both are rejected as resolution 5 was passed could UKOG make an open offer for up to £300,000 nominal share value anyway, but if resolution 1 is passed and 2 rejected could UKOG make open offer/s for up to £1,100,000 nominal value of shares. Resolution 2 fails if resolution 1 is not passed though.

Ozzy

and what new insight have you ever provided.

Blah blah blah xr, blah blah blah nimby, blah blah blah swampy, blah blah blah ( insert name of a poster you don't agree with.

For monotony you would be hard to beat

Whilst full disclosure would be helpful to investors to understand the real expectations of the board if it's negative who would thank a new (or the old board) for doing so, and there's so much that UKOG seems to want to keep secret.

I point out what they are not saying and clearly UKOG has a reason to not. For instance, giving a full rundown on E Sadak production and or expectations for Resan/Basur, whilst using E Sadak as an example of size and initial rates. They also cite it as an input as to recovery (mixed in some way with the Kurdistan fields) to come up with 10 to 20%.

The main drivers seem to be cheap, easy to permit wells and production in a fairly benign fiscal regime.

But easy to production and low costs only matters if the well is successful at a reasonable level, and the same goes for the OP.

Otherwise both levels at Horse Hill seem to still be subject to review and the Portland requiring permissions for water disposal/injection. No current data from UKOG of oil production or water cut - pi have to wait 3 months for at least some information from the OGA.

The last critical report on Loxley was in the 2018 CPR where Xodus would not even calculate resources.

Arreton now seems to be only targeting 2.7mmbbls according to the Turkish presentation, not the 10s of millions in the recent annual report.

As for the IOW whatever happened to:-'UKOG's subsurface team have also recently identified a further large undrilled anticlinal structure, the Arreton East Prospect, another look-alike to the Arreton discovery and lying further to the east along the same geological trend. Initial mapping shows this feature to be many times larger than both the Arreton oil discovery and Arreton South prospect combined. Further work and potential recoverable resources will be reported in due course'

That was 20/8/2019 'in due course' still hasn't arrived - for something many times larger than Arreton. Was it was just another bit of BS to help the SP as at the time as the only way a prospect that large could be to the east of Arreton would be offshore not in the licence - an area the OGA would not include in license rounds.

So will clarity from UKOG help or hinder the SP? Over the years UKOG has made many statements that have been picked up as indications of future value. Have any come to fruition. What of the current crop are any more than a continuation of past over promising, under performing?

Ozzy,

'....I know the past.....i was there, I'm fully aware thanks'

and indeed your second post if I remember correctly was to have a go at my posting history.

But if you really were 'there' you'll be aware that many of the things I posted about HH, the Kimmeridge, Broadford Bridge, the Portland that were subject to much the same sort of criticism have come to pass. The timescale isn't a traders timescale (hence I was 'wrong about Broadford Bridge) but it is presumably a lth timescale, waiting, waiting, waiting for the promised land to come to them. I trade because of my 'take' as to what has, is and might happen. I suppose I could stop posting - but while there's posters like you criticising other posters, for posting perfectly reasonable opinion....about the company...........claiming there's some great conspiracy against UKOG when judging by the P&D frequency it's quite the opposite - I'll say what I like when I like and be sure when it's factual it will be supported by fact and knowledge, not just belief and hope.

Ozzy,

Seems more of a philosophical statement rather than a statement specifically about UKOG's mistakes:-

'Ocelot, dwelling in the past will never achieve anything......apart from learning from our mistakes'

Anyway 'mistakes' is your choice of words, bad choices and failures are the words I used.

Mistakes sounds more like bad luck rather than an possible outcome, just like UKOG forgot to mention those outcomes as much (or at all) as the good outcomes unintentionally.

Anything changed, learnt?

Ozzy,

If returning to past failures to correct them with hindsight was possible surely this 20/20 ability would have been a better option to spend a bit of cash on than paying 100% drilling a well on a structure where multiple wells have failed. Even next door on the lookalike producing field one of the most recent wells failed.

To be an apologist for UKOG is a difficult task, UKOG having a 100% record of bad choices, of course the past is somewhere you don't want to go, but are there any examples where UKOG have learnt from past mistakes so far - even the recent change of heart with the open offer plan and the director share buy scheme were forced upon the company by SH militancy and desperation to get the SP up (desperation my opinion), which worked, probably capturing a few more wannabe traders, now lth.

Perhaps not doing anything in the Weald?

Perhaps not giving any indication of what the expected outcome at Basur-3 is one of the things they have learnt. As despite the multiple wells on the Resan/Basur feature and test and production date from E Sadak which will have been used to come to a view UKOG have not given even a hint of expected production rates from Basur-3. A cynic might think that was more because the rates aren't that good rather than a new found modesty though.

Perhaps Ocelot's 'Consequently, the results of Basur-3 do not need to be outstanding in order to provide a boost to the share price.' is the last line of defence of the SP - even poor flow rates should help the SP - but is that what's needed for a sustained rise in the SP if the promised self funded drilling programme ends up being funded by placings.

Perhaps why we hear so much about the OP (when it rises), charting (BS), and guessed SPs (based on hope) from posters rather than how these sunlit uplands are going to be achieved.

'11p and then some is certainly possible'

That implies if only 3 billion shares are placed/open offered between now and the unlikely 11p a share UKOG would have a mcap of £1.75billion.

Even Mr Sanderson, who has a record of making wrong predictions, only said projects with 100's of millions of value in Turkey, and has presented no justification for that figure.

When UKOG were ramping the Kimmeridge at Broadford Bridge making claims about the Kimmeridge being proved across the Weald, and the Bouygues were buying shares, the mcap did reach 100's of millions briefly.

If Basur-3 is successful it might start the process of proving that UKOG has a 50% share in a field similar, not to fields in Kurdistan, but an adjacent field, E Sadak, that was producing from 8 wells last September at an average of 420bopd (individual wells have started production at that sort of rate and better although they have declined rapidly) and the latest well on that field at that time (E Sadak-12) was unsuccessful. E Sadak is described by UKOG as a producing lookalike.

LSE,

You're right (assuming UKOG consider Basur-3 and Resan-6 as the initial appraisal drilling) but as Resan-6 seems to be slated for some time in 2022 (originally scheduled August 2021) it is possible UKOG could fit in HH-3 and HH-4 before the end of 2022 (though personally I doubt it) - the timescale that DavidWK mentioned - 'end of 2022'.

From RNS and the GM notice:-

'It is expected that the further HH-3 Portland and HH-4 Kimmeridge infill wells will be planned in detail and drilled at Horse Hill following the completion of the Company's potentially transformational initial Turkey Basur-Resan appraisal drilling campaign.'

'A further appraisal well Resan-6 is expected to be drilled next year post processing and interpretation of the new seismic data.'

But of course there other unicorns in the toolkit, geothermal & solar panels at HH to spend money on:-

'In addition, within its UK portfolio, the Company also plans to fund regulatory works at Horse Hill, ongoing licence obligations and work related to the planning applications to drill at its Loxley and Isle of Wight sites, together with costs related to developing new geothermal projects at its sites and elsewhere'

Looks like all the Weald work is being kicked into the long grass, but hold on....... 'The Loxley appeal will occupy much of this year with a decision expected by year end.'..but......'OGA approved an amendment to the PEDL234 Retention Area work programme, wherein Loxley-1 is to be drilled by December 2021.'

But in the circumstances the OGA will grant an(other) extension assuming UKOG ask for it - but might be only until the end 2022.

Ocelot,

what leads you to quote fields some distance away when adjacent to the Resan/Basur structure is the E Sadak field, producing from the target reservoir for Basur-3?

Is it that the single well rates in Kurdistan are much higher than the whole field production from E Sadak last September which averaged total production a bit over 400bopd from 8 wells?

'Ignore them like true investors do.'

No - ignore them because you don't have any justification for the claims made.

Still waiting for that cashflow, even at $70 OP there's barely enough just for the next well from Basur-3 let alone any other expenditure in Turkey - and that could take a year based on the producing lookalike - what are you basing your claim of funding Loxley and further work at HH as well on? Wells 150 kilometres away?

I suspect UKOG will give plenty of fodder to the 'positive' posters during the drilling of Basur-3, just like at Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill - but the final outcomes were fairly predictable, it's just that the signs were ignored.

Next stop Turkey......All Aboard!

Just watch out how empty the carriages might be at the destination - still grasping those golden tickets while others have disembarked at the stops along the way (see above BB & HH) whilst exhorting the value of staying until journey's end.

Zoom,

welcome back - where have you been for the last month:

'RE: Horse hill ... ongoing plans.... for Kim and Portland 03 May 2021 16:31
Penguins. You are correct, but the figures you quote are way out of date and I will stick to what I believe to be true at this time, and so will stick to my 4p share price for the next 3 weeks.'

3 to 4p - not even 0.3 to 0.4p

Seems my way out of date figures were a better indicator than whatever you were on.

Ocelot,

as UKOG aren't funding drilling out of cashflow whether payback is fast or slow it makes little difference to the cash ploughed in to drill Basur-3. Good that you're using E Sadak OPEX that UKOG have RNS'd, because it's a geological and producing lookalike, but UKOG are silent on E Sadak production, any suggestions why - seems there's a lot of posters who class any analysis of the production figures that are available as negative.

But with regard to TH2's assertions it does matter whether there is sufficient cashflow going forwards to fund Resan-6, but it's pretty clear there won't be any cash heading to the UK to fund work at Loxley and HH even if Basur-3 is successful - the claim was it could fund the next well (though more funds might have to be raised for Turkey) - not the Weald.

Maybe if Loxley is so great they could farm it out and get someone else to pay for the well - like AME did for Basur-3, should be easy with a slam dunk.

Troll,

Any chance you can give a run down as to how Basur-3 is going to fund Loxley, or even the next Turkish well, Resan-6, let alone further work on HH which yesterday you were saying wasn't SS's choice by way of an excuse for it being so poor.

As UKOG hasn't given any guidance on possible production flow rates if the well is successful what are you basing your cash flow forecast on, obviously not the producing lookalike adjacent to Resan/Basur.

Don't forget the royalty, taxes and OPEX, and then funding all the other things in Turkey that will take priority over repatriating cash to the UK.

Tony,

'Penguins , if you did some research ( cough ) you would know that you are very welcome to invest in Turkey. But you have to use local staff and companies.'

Tony, if you read the thread you would understand I was responding to Trollhunter's post:-

'Sanderson Today 15:44
As I see it, Mr Sanderson is an oil man with expertise in drilling and delivering oil wells.
He has not got so much experience of running and finance a company....some may say obviously.
But he has chosen Turkey from all his years experience and now is the time he comes into his own.'

Best have a word with Trollhunter who seems to think Sanderson is drilling the well.

But isn't AME an American Company with local offices?

'Aladdin Middle East Ltd. ("AME") is an independent American oil and gas exploration and production company founded in 1961 and focused on the strategic exploration and exploitation of oil and gas assets in Turkey. AME’s head office is in Wichita, Kansas, while the company's operational headquarters is located in Ankara, Turkey. Additional field offices are located at the operating sites for AME's production leases.'

Troll,

hilarious - UKOG aren't even the operator, AME are drilling - but wasn't it SS that got UKOG into Broadford Bridge (failed), then Holmwood (not pursued, licence relinquished despite shelling out for the equity), and drilled HH-2/2z (failed), and continually over promised and under delivered and eventually went radio silent to hide what was happening at HH.

With a record like that
'Mr Sanderson is an oil man with expertise in drilling and delivering oil wells.'
seems somewhat inappropriate. Water wells, dry wells, no wells maybe, not a single oil well in the last 6 years. Didn't even dual complete HH-1, drill HH-1z, and then the workover that didn't even improve production in HH-1 - though I think you claimed the production would increase to 500bopd?

(RE: Buys flagged as sells 12 Oct 2020 11:39
Trolls busy this morning now they've got down off the rig and let UKOG get on with reperfing and increasing OIL flow rate out of HH-1.
With the new set-up and the pumps working to their specified capacity we could expect to see a production rate of 500+ bopd by then end of this week.)

If HH was no good - 'Horse Hill was not his choice' - perhaps it would have been nice for him to mention it rather than blunder on from disaster to disaster.

As for Turkey - what do we know.

AME farmed out the full cost of drilling the first well to a new entrant (UKOG) in the last year of the exploration licence, obviously the terms or the project were such no Turkish operator took the bait.

But at least it's easy to get permissions, drilling is cheap, and UKOG have quoted an initial rate from one of the many wells drilled on Resan/Basur and an 'up to' initial rates from E Sadak, an OIP yet no map, and recoverable resources using a recovery factor based on E Sadak and the somewhat distant giant fields in Kurdistan - though possibly nearer than the Akoba-1 and Yenisehir-1 wells you quoted earlier as being relevant (though posts now mysteriously disappeared) to Resan/Basur despite being some 150 kilometres away - nobody seems to want to know about the field next door in the same reservoir - much better to quote flow rates from distant wells that have no relevance.

Good luck to AME and UKOG - they'll need it to fulfil SS's claims of projects worth 100's of millions with 'profits' that might just fund the next well needed to keep production up to fund, well, the next well and so on.