Member Info for Penguins

Tony,

Monday was Mayday Bank Holiday so 'and took the first price Monday' can't be true for starters, and the closing price yesterday can be seen above these posts (0.25p from a UT trade) although the spread was 0.24 - 0.25p and mid price was 0.245. Neither was 0.256p. So your 'from' SP is dubious and your 'to' price is wrong.

Ozzy must have been referring to your post as 'now quoting in corbynistic standards......selected jumbled statistics'.

btw Nobody is 'ganging up' on you, or is worried about your attempts at ramping. If you post something that's dubious expect it to be questioned.

Oh dear,

Decimal point in the wrong place, should be 3.75% and nothing.

When will these posters stop making stuff up.

'Well .21 to .256 is a 21.9% gain in a week'

It would be

But whatever closing price you take for Friday 30 April, a week ago, the rise was anywhere between 0.375% and nothing.

Mid price last Friday was 0.2425p, yesterday 0.245p

Uncrossed Trades (UT) and all trades after closing Friday 30 April 0.25p, yesterday 0.25p.

2 weeks ago mid price 0.25p or 0.251p (UT)
3 weeks ago mid price 0.295p or 0.3p (UT)
4 weeks ago mid price 0.2425p or 0.255p (UT)

If I go back 5 weeks before the P&D to Thursday April 1st the mid price was 0.14p and UT was 0.135

Sting,

I agree to your description of Trollhunter - at last someone has called him/her out - everyone else is referring to his description of a 'cement truck'.
'Child, there is nothing called a cement truck'
'The picture shows the cement truck in the background....'

Oops,

Here's the link to the cellar and conductor pipe ready to be concreted:-

https://www.facebook.com/AladdinMiddleEastLtd/photos/pcb.993019194174180/993018840840882

Troll,

Laughable.

You accused me yesterday of making things up when I was quoting facts, which I then listed where they came from -and today you make a claim that can so easily be checked and found to be not true.

Neither picture UKOG tweeted on May 5th has a cement truck in it. Whether the next photos show the conductor pipe properly installed is irrelevant, what you posted was not true.

Anyone who wants to check can follow these links:-

https://twitter.com/UKOGlistedonAIM/status/1389892519073308673/photo/1

https://twitter.com/UKOGlistedonAIM/status/1389892519073308673/photo/2

One small point is that they don't just fill the hole with concrete they construct a 'cellar' which will require reinforcement and shuttering - I'm afraid the concrete would have set in a truck that was at the site when that picture was taken.

Here's a picture of a conductor pipe cellar ready to be concreted - with the conductor pipe vertical and reinforcement and shuttering.

Specsavers might be a cheaper option - and after 12 May Turkey goes on the red list, so you'd have to get to and from sirte very quickly.

That might scupper a photo opportunity for SS.

Ocelot,

Fair enough, all those that said the price would rise for 2 1/2 years after the 11p must have been right - hold on....

You are still ignoring the difference between guess the SP and the fundamentals of the company - eventually the fundamentals dictate the mcap, not the BS.

The aim is to buy low sell high - unfortunately for 3 1/2 years the most likely outcome has been buy high, hold or sell low, with the odd P&D that have probably introduced a few investors to unintentionally holding UKOG shares longer term.

I guess every time someone says the price has risen I should point out they're wrong as the SP hasn't reached 11p.

Ocelot,

'I don't want to be unkind, but the most wrong you have been was when you were negative on UKOG at 0.80p in 2017, before it rose to touch 11p.

You were wrong on UKOG for about another 2 1/2 years, the time it took for the share price to come back down to 0.80p.'

*******************************************************************

Was I wrong if the price returned to 0.8p - and lower?

Your post ignores the difference between being right about the company's projects and being right about the SP - and I don't do SP predictions - and almost all of those that do get it spectacularly wrong.

Guess the SP is a different game to understanding what is likely to happen long term. My comments are essentially about realistic outcomes, not the BS on the way which is what determines the SP in between. So my negative view on the Kimmeridge, and reservations about the Portland were wrong for 2 1/2 years while the company hid behind limited information about the Portland and Kimmeridge with suggestions the Kimmeridge would be sidetracked into, dual completed, or even drilled through by HH-2. Sometimes being correct takes time.

But during the 3 1/2 years since the 11p how often have posters been right proclaiming constantly the price would rise.

UKOG had to change horses to get the SP out of the doldrums, but are very selective with revelations about the venture, keeping to generalisations and keeping off detailed analysis which seems to be working in terms of the SP.

Ocelot,

It's an interesting conundrum isn't it. But I would be disgusted with myself if I encouraged rises by making projections of the SP that are likely to be ephemeral.

So I comment on the more technical side of things, which I've been doing for 6 years. So far the most wrong I've been about the future is when I incorporate UKOG expectations - if my musings appear negative that's unfortunate but it's how I see it.

Ocelot,

As they had to swab to get the 500bbls to surface surely, even in 1964, they would have tried pumping if other factors - water ingress? - hadn't suggested it wasn't worth it.

There's a saying, the best place to find oil is where it's been found already.

This could mean that a new prospect has a good chance because there's a working petroleum system, or perhaps it could mean that there's an excellent chance of at least an oil show.

If you look at UKOGs list of upcoming wells none are new prospects, and all appear to have been appraised previously - Arreton-3, Loxley-1 (but could be named Godley Bridge-3 or even 4), Basur-3, Resan-6.

As none are 'new' prospects I suppose UKOG hopes for 100% certainty of an oil show - or in Loxley's case a gas show.

On other matters.

Why do posters, who are only here for a P&D on the rig turning up, think anyone cares what they think the price might be when we all know they will sell if the SP reaches a few percent above their recent buy in.

Troll, yes lots,

Posted before I had finished.

are there any in any of yours?

Fact:- 'the closest producing look alike field to Basur-Resan' (UKOG)
Fact :-initial results - in E Sadak UKOG quote 1,300bopd, and for Basur 2000bopd, but forget to mention that Basur-1 6 hour test was stopped because of water production. (Government publication)
Fact:- the 1,300bopd is (extremely) unrepresentative of rates in production (Comparison of production rates over months and years of production data released to the scout group by AME)
Fact:- The latest available figure is an average of 420bopd in September 2020 from 8 wells (though AME had drilled and completed 12 wells, plus at least one sidetrack, at that time) an average of just over 50bopd per well. (Scout Group November 2020 and AME presnetation November 2020 showing E Sadak production wells)

You just need to know where to look. Links to the sources have been previously given for the E Sadak production figures and the November AME presentation)
The Basur-1 test result was published in an official government document at that time, the initial flow rates are from UKOG RNS and presentations.

Troll, yes lots,

are there any in any of yours?

Fact:- 'the closest producing look alike field to Basur-Resan'
initial results - in E Sadak UKOG quote 1,300bopd, and for Basur 2000bopd, but forget to mention that Basur-1 6 hour test was stopped because of water production.

Troll,

'I guess some will be wanting the confidence of actual production results from Turkey before investing.'

you're probably right - they certainly wouldn't be investing long term now if they based their analysis on E Sadak - which UKOG describe as 'the closest producing look alike field to Basur-Resan'

Resan / Basur needs to be different in a good way for the fundamentals to suggest significant value, but is that likely?

The only difference UKOG has mentioned are initial results - in E Sadak UKOG quote 1,300bopd, and for Basur 2000bopd, but forget to mention that Basur-1 6 hour test was stopped because of water production.

As far as E Sadak is concerned the 1,300bopd is (extremely) unrepresentative of rates in production. The latest available figure is an average of 420bopd in September 2020 from 8 wells (though AME had drilled and completed 12 wells, plus at least one sidetrack, at that time) an average of just over 50bopd per well. Seems Turkish production challenges HH for mediocracy.

Wizard,

I would refer to the 15 January RNS where UKOG state :- 'Technical work is ongoing to further characterise the Portland reservoir's delivery mechanisms and, in particular, the prevalence and role of the natural fracturing within the Portland section.'

Translated:- we still don't know what's going on after months and months of tesþing and production.

They have also significantly changed the map (in the report you have linked) so total OIP will have changed. HH-3 is going to be interesting as it depends on the new interpretation being correct that looks like they are ignoring events on line BP85-75 (on page 13) that suggest it is targeting a down thrown fault terrace as previously mapped (and how the line was presumably previously interpreted).

I am sceptical of the 7-11 mmbbls connected oil they have reverted to which would require a reliable model, especially as they have discarded the 11 -14mmbbls they came up with in the interim - which would have been based on more data.

Until they prove injection works not only as water disposal and at least some pressure support and they have proved the new map by drilling HH-3 assuming anything other than the HH-1 figure in the Final Results i.of 600,000bbls sn't justified.

However the value of that oil isn't today's OP * 600,000. UKOG give an NPV figure which takes into account the time value of money of less than £5mm which suggests low production levels into the near future.

Mirasol

The first sale TR1 was on 12 October 2017.

The SP had dropped off the highs and a sidetrack had been drilled because of the original hole's condition and UKOG were pulling the so called 'production' completion because of poor cement bond - announced in the RNS 10 Oct 2017 - though their selling had begun before that RNS.

I think it's fair to say things weren't sounding so positive - it was nearly 3 months after flow testing was expected to begin in July, and the Bouygues would be able to call on expertise to advise about the reasons (excuses?) given.

Closing SP 6/10/17 7.1p
Closing SP 9/10/17 6.35p
Closing SP 10/10/17 6.3p
Closing SP 11/10/17 4.7p
Closing SP 12/10/17 4.875p

The drop was probably caused by large SCDM sells prior to the TR1 and the uncertainty caused by the 10/10 RNS - but the large trades at the end of 9/10, 10/10 and 11/10 did show as buys - which only fooled those wanting to be.

Wizard,

with an NPV of less than £5mm if that had been known before drilling it would not have made economic sense to drill the well with commercial risk and OP risk as the cost of the well would be deducted and the rate of return would be negative.

How further wells will be economically justified will depend on the successful outcome of reinjection of produced water as it must be assumed that will be a continuing problem.

But whether the field will ever make a real profit (ie oil sales exceed the money spent) is questionable as even more millions will need to be spent on further wells - luckily most of the money UKOG and others have spent so far on HH has been raised by selling shares, not oil.

Ocelot,

I was pointing out that the Resan and Basur tests are likely to be linked and failure at Basur could lead to Resan not being drilled - it would certainly not be funding the next well - you're not claiming it's impossible for Basur-3 to fail - 'But what if the 1st well is a success?' - and I'm not saying it will fail.

All possibilities need to be considered, and their outcomes.

Incidentally SCDM initially came by UKOG shares by selling equity held by Celtique to UKOG - there was also a dispute settlement with Magellan that gave them even more shares. They added to the holding in the run up to the BB drill but then sold out as results were becoming less positive.

Zoom,

Zoom they are more recent and more detailed than anything UKOG have RNS'd - they gave no figures that were exclusively production even in the final results and those up to the end of February gave an average of 106bopd in January / February.

what's changed since the end of February?

But as I have provided you with these figures, that are indisputable, perhaps you could give us the benefit of your calculation that gives a market cap of over half a billion pounds - so we may share in your enthusiasm. Even at the height of the Broadford Bridge well campaign, which was thought to prove the Kimmeridge play across the Weald, the mcap was only in the £300 millions briefly.

Zoom,

Here's the numbers in cubic metres from the OGA

Dec oil 403 water 169 gas 6,990
Jan oil 504 water 267 gas 9,570
Increase, oil 101, water 98, gas 2,580
oil plus 25% (101/403), water plus 58% (98/169), gas plus 37% (2580/6990)

If you want bbls it's cubic ft times 6.2898, and cu ft from cu metres is times 35.29 (gas is usually expressed in scf/day (standard cubic feet per day.

But whatever the numbers are UKOG won't be worth 4p a share or over half a billion pounds.

Tony,

every time you throw a dice the chance of getting a given number doesn't change. It's very possible to have 3 failures from 3 66% COS wells .

Not sure that a second well will happen at Resan / Basur if Basur-3 is a failure. There's going to be a lot of dependency on the Basur result involved in a decision about Resan - and for some reason Basur was chosen as the first try - perhaps the 5 previous wells on Resan are a clue, and conversely Basur-1 flowed in an initial test at a rate of 2000bopd (for 6 hours before water was produced).

As for Horse Hill while total oil production in January rose 25%, water production rose 58% and gas production rose 37% from December's figures. So to increase production profitably they certainly need water injection to be permitted, but it will also need to provide pressure support to keep oil production up, and gas down, and it also needs to not find an easy route to HH-1 - and they will only know if any of those work from a test.

As for Loxley they will need further planning for any production, and there will be no income from tested gas, although they will have another go at the Kimmeridge.

Arreton is a high risk appraisal as they are depending on their interpretation that the previous testing was faulty, they have yet to apply for the Godshill well.

Cyan,

the Xodus report was produced in June 2020, almost certainly as a 'farmout' brochure - probably a last throw if the dice by AME to get the well farmed out before the license expired. Why else would AME get a report on the license. I would take a pretty big pinch of salt to the volumes without seeing the whole report which might have unmentioned by UKOG caveats - and will almost certainly contain phrases about making your own determinations and not to rely on an figures.

Tony,

They haven't made any changes in the EA application being reviewed to the site storage of oil of a maximum of 500tonnes.

In fact they repeatedly state:-

'HHDL will continue to undertake the following activities at the site in accordance with the current permissions presented within the permit:
Store and handle crude oil up to a capacity of 500 tonnes within the existing infrastructure and within the current permitted boundary. Permit EPR/SP3339YS will not be the subject of a permit variation.'

The variation is in the planning permission application to store oil.

and it's currently up to 2 oil tankers in a day every now and then, unless you have compelling evidence (that in three months time we can compare to OGA figures) otherwise.

It seems the reason for participating in Resan / Basur is more to do with the ease of permissions and cheap drilling than the results. No subsurface mapping in the multiple presentations, no mention of why the previous 7 wells on Resan / Basur failed to be followed up until now, at the end of the this exploration licence period, or mention of likely flow rates based on the nearby analogue field operated by AME (that appears to have similar flow rates, and decline, to HH), just OIP and estimates of recovery - where they like to quote mid and high cases..

There are permissions in place to drill further wells and expand the operation at Horse Hill, and UKOG has been tardy applying for permissions elsewhere to begin the process. Yes it can be difficult. Southern England is crowded and you can't just choose a field and build a house or drill for oil. But it is isn't impossible. There is oil production proved at HH, if only UKOG would get a CPR done, and if waiting for a year of production data was truly necessary why have they previously made promises that didn't have a year's wait. There are plans for more drilling at HH with surely much higher COS than Resan / Basur. More expensive maybe but higher equity and operated.

Cynical presentations with very specific comparisons showing small recoverable resources in the Weald when UKOG haven't mentioned that the hundreds of millions of barrels recoverable in the Kimmeridge were no longer a target, and much the same for the IOW with 2.6mmbls net shown - yet in the Final Results they quote 13.8mmbbls 2C resources plus 11.6mmbbls Prospective Resources.

Traders of course will be delighted at the opportunities that drilling (success not necessary) will bring, and maybe UKOG is of the same opinion as they will need to raise cash at some point to fund the planned drilling at HH.

UKOG has become more about the journey than the destination, that train pulls out of the station and then backs into the sidings, nevertheless the pink trousered station master is still shouting 'All Aboard'.