Member Info for Penguins

galanoja,

I suspect you don't care about the answer but here's some thoughts:-

Almost all the 572mmbbls reserves is in other reservoirs in SE Turkey - E Sadak ('geological lookalike' to Resan/Basur) has a claimed 28mmbbls recoverable.

There's not only the distortion of claiming SE Turkey is a single play or basin and using an area of about 200km by about 70km (14,000sq km), but including only the fields in the Weald which is quoted as about 3,200sq km, a quarter of the area.

There is also a difference between the quoted fields volumes in the Turkey new Acreage slide and the Turkey Resan Licence Overview July 2020.

If, for instance, the area was Southern England and included the Wytch Farm field (on the same basis - ie nothing to do with HH or the Weald) that adds about 500mmbbls to the total.

Equally you'll find Wizard rambling on about 10billion bbls of OIP in the Kimmeridge just in the HH blocks - which isn't true because that figure includes other clays(!), and there's no indication that any significant part of that could be produced - and of course the EY report with a range of 560 to 1,125mmbbls - which was BS - but this was a figure UKOG used previously for the Weald.

Comparing both areas at over 500mmbbls 'recoverable' most of that has already been produced over decades - and no doubt like Wytch Farm over those years in Turkey they have tried to find similar fields - in the areas applied for.

One interesting statistic is that Assuming that one well at least a year is drilled successfully on E Sadak (not guaranteed) and the overall average production into the future is 600bopd (total production November 2020 was 410bopd) that's going to take 127 years to produce the quoted 28mmbbls.

So the answer your question - I think I'd stick with HH, and accept it's a modest producer like most UK onshore fields - at least there is proved production even at a low level - and UKOG needs to give some facts that acknowledge they have a problem.

Wizard,

not the pipeline ramp again. A 6" pipeline would need about 110bbls to fill a km. That means a month's production at an average of about 80bopd would fill about 23kms of pipeline.

If UKOG was spending money on a pipeline connection when they have no idea if any further wells at HH will be even as successful as HH-1 or HH-2z it would be disgraceful - they are not, it always has been the resort of desperate rampers even before the wells started producing water - it was complete BS then, and it still is - started by your ex-BFF FOTH.

Wizard

I don't claim to be invested, I am invested, today a lot less than last weekend - but like 99% of the posters I trade, perhaps not as much as some as sitting hovering over the buy or sell button all day long though. I just don't rely on posting BS to sell my shares - in fact I rely on BS like yours to make money - thanks.

Tomorrow I may sell, buy or do nothing - but the fundamentals of the company won't have changed significantly unless there is a placing. What will be will be at HH, Loxley, Arreton and Basur - my view is none of them will be transformative and all carry a lot of risk to be commercial - and I don't mean 100s of millions.

Perhaps Ocelot is right - maybe the negative posters enhance the rises, and maybe I'm right that the positive posts drop the SP - it certainly seems that all the tens upon tens of thousands of positive posts over the years have dragged the SP down to where it is now - even though it's 100% higher than the week before.

Wizard,

you're assuming something even the company is no longer pushing.

Where, apart from extremely out of date, and prior to HH-2z and HH-1 water production, is there any indication the previous plans have any relevance.

The latest mapping (EA - Geological Reservoir Parameters Rev4 - page 13 of 18) has a much smaller closure at Portland than the previous map. The HH-2z well was expected from the previous mapping to be more or less horizontal - the latest mapping shows it going down dip so the next well depends on an up dip location in an area of uncontrolled mapping (no seismic) - and the plan seems to be to drill the Kimmeridge up dip of HH-1 - for a play that is mean to not depend on closure for production - also no mention of 'horizontal' - probably because there isn't anywhere they could drill a horizontal of any length in closure.

and you just say 'there will be plenty more development imo.'

I think the market has smelt the coffee.

Ozzy,

You just keep to reading UKOG RNS - it's worked so well so far.

No messy stuff about production, maps, justification for projects worth 100s of millions in Turkey, imformation about HH.

Nothing is known with exploration wells - this is described as an appraisal well, and anyway usually a lot is known about what might happen unless it's wildcat drilling (ie no previous wells) - drawing in infrormation from analogue (geological lookalikes) fields and other local wells to establish what is likely from the reservoir.

Justbe

Production from other wells on E Sadak in the available data has wells apart from #1 coming on at about 200 and 400 bopd, and dropping rapidly. Production in November 2020 from all the production wells (AME identified 8 production wells) at E Sadak was 410bopd.

ibug,

The PW shares were issued under the GM authority so only the £2.2 mm and the associated warrants.

From the GM notes:-

(b) (otherwise than pursuant to sub paragraph (a) above) up to an aggregate nominal amount of E300,000; and provided that this power shall expire on the conclusion of the next Annual General Meeting of the Company (unless renewed, varied or revoked by the Company prior to or on that date) save that the Company may, before such expiry, make offer(s) or agreement(s) which would or might require equity securities to be allotted after such expiry and the Directors may allot equity securities in pursuance of any such offers or agreements notwithstanding that the power conferred by this resolution has expired.'

and this seems to be the case for all these allocations.

To be clear this bit:- 'save that the Company may, before such expiry, make offer(s) or agreement(s) which would or might require equity securities to be allotted after such expiry'

That's my reading of the situation.

Ocelot,

you haven't considered that the constant optimism by certain posters of how great everything was and how the SP would always rise in the future over the past 3 years vs the outcomes might have lead to the disillusionment of investors and the low price?

So the years of decline to the 'bottom' is due to optimists and the 4? days of recovery (if it holds) due to pessimists - followed by a day's drop caused presumably by the optimists

Didn't exactly see that being reflected in the posts over the last few days.

There has been a single poster saying the Turkish well wouldn't be drilled but the main thrust has been it's unlikely to be transformational (unless that means a well not much different to HH-1, if they're lucky) - that has still to be found out.

As nobody flagged that permission from the authorities was something waited for (which as the site was being prepared AME obviously thought it would be a formality) the market wasn't waiting for 'permission to drill from the Turkish authorities' and it was just lucky a P&D at 88E had just happened.

Any proof of the 'rumour' about wealthy (now wealthier with cash in bank if they were smart) Turkish investors?

Wizard,

'HH was originally permitted for 3000BOPD.'

By the EA? Storage and handling of 500tonnes is about 3150bbls not bopd. UKOG are now indicating production of up to 25,000scf/day from HH-1 (up to 140bopd?) and up to 250,000scf/day during 90 day ewt production from further wells. But UKOG's record of using the permissions they have to the full is poor.

Don't confuse planning permission for a maximum number of daily tanker export for a short 4 month period with EA permission to flare or utilise associated gas.

Wizard,

The EA is revision to previous permits asking for EA permission to test and for treatments to further wells at HH. There is no change to the allowed mass of gas allowed to be flared. From EPR/BB3300XG, determined 31st August 2017, 'The amount of gas to be flared shall not exceed 10 tonnes per day.' From this request: 'Incinerating natural gas at a rate not exceeding 10 tonnes per day during production operations.

They will continue to store and handle crude oil up to a capacity of 500 tonnes within the existing infrastructure and within the current permitted boundary (Permit EPR/SP3339YS)

The following applications from the original application for consolidating the permits with the above have now been
withdrawn:
• Permit Number: EPR/SP3339YS/V002 to allow for a regulated facility type: 1.2 A(1) h) (i) - Loading/Storage/
Treatment etc of Crude Oil
• EPR/TP3007PZ/A001 to allow for the operation of specified generators with an aggregated capacity of less than
50MWth for the production of electricity for export.

As they have said they want to drill a further 2 wells the request for EA permission for testing and treatments for HH-3 to HH-6 is timely - if there is production from those wells they will be subject to further EA permission, but the loading plant and gas to wire requests have been withdrawn.

Note the following from the Gas Management Plan:-
'6.2, however this Gas Management Plan has been produced to assess the techniques considered the best available
for waste gas during activities associated with production from the HH-1 well only, and extended well testing of each
additional hydrocarbon exploration well.'

and

'With the sites main commodity being oil no other gas management techniques have been considered within the
quantitative assessment as the volume of gas encountered thus far suggests that there is not enough to power the site by itself let alone for exportation. Gas volumes are too low for heat generators and gas turbine technologies,
forcing HHDL to consider small scale generator sets only.'

However they have indicated gas production from HH-1 of 25,000scf/day. In the Geological Reservoir parameters they quote 180scf/bbl as the current GOR (document dated 21 Jan 2021) so about 140bopd.

Water injection into a fractured reservoir, especially from a well not specifically placed for that purpose and a reservoir they appear to have difficulty modeling is not a turn it on, it will work process - it will need to be tested and may only work partially, or not at all, or make things worse. I'm also not sure how early water injection was considered to be needed - if UKOG knew it was 6 months after start of production - and it had to work - perhaps they should have mentioned that otherwise decline would be catastrophic - but there's never any risk with UKOG projects, everything will turn out fine - until it doesn't.

As Ocelot posted:

'Given that nobody foresaw the phenomenal volume of the last 2 days, it follows that nobody can predict what happens next.'

My view is it was manufactured based on a 200dma that has been hovering above the SP for some time so someone who has a large following suggesting the SP had reached the bottom at the very least initiated it.

My cynical view is there will be more spikes (but you won't see me encouraging them), because for rises to stick UKOG need to start delivering value - for instance get a CPR, warts and all, rater than silence after a year of production at HH.

RNS, presentations amd interviews concentrating on anything other than the 'asset' or quoting figures seemingly plucked from thin air (ie with no 'backup') are UKOG's MO.

I wonder if UKOG were more forthcoming about the issues there would be less dismay when things don't turn out as good as expected and more belief (in the market, not the positive posters here) when they are positive.

As for SP there is insufficient information for anyone to say UKOG is worth £10mm or £100mm based on it's projects. Even HH is needing more appraisals and an injection trial that will involve risk, everything else depending on a successful drill - by no means guaranteed. SS spoke of projects that could be worth 10s of millions in the Weald (hmm) and 100s of millions,in Turkey. But equally they could be 'worth' a negative amount of the cost of the drill if unsuccessful.

So many plans, so little money, so much time coming and still not arrived.

I'm still struggling to think of anything UKOG has promised or planned, like timing of wells, production rates or even funding (fully funded for x, then a cash raise for that purpose) that has actually happened. Some have even disappeared without mention (dual completion and sidetrack of HH-1).

Forgive me for being cynical but UKOG has yet to drill a well at HH that has lived up to expectations - what's changed - oh yes a new map based on the same old seismic and HH-2z that proved the old map was wrong (bases on the previous map it should have been more or less horizontal, new map shows it went down dip - what will the next well do to the map?

They also have a new well, more testing and production that either proved the old model was wrong, or they forgot to mention how bad the wells could be. They are still working on the new model for the Portland.

Assuming planning comes through for both - Loxley is an appraisal of a map that Xodus didn't like, and Arreton deviated to be adjacent to a well that only had oil shows and a gas 'blow'.

As for Turkey - not in Kurdistan but is adjacent to a 'geological lookalike' field with 8 wells producing a total of 410bopd last November, and 4 failed appraisal / development wells - something UKOG seem to not want to mention, preferring to mention OIP and reserves in fields not described as 'geological lookalikes' or unrepresentative initial flow rates.

I thank all those that tried to convince others that the rise in the SP was wholly justified by lies, quoting information about Kurdistan that is irrelevant, out of date information about E Sadak, claiming the upcoming Basur well was funded already so no placing - or even the government would pay, that the previous claims about HH were about to come true, fantasy charting, that a placing would be based on a pump & dump high price (as if they wouldn't be aware of the history of spikes in UKOG) and that anyone warning that the process was a pump and dump etc. was xr, swampy, nimby etc.

That list was based on posts I noticed in a few look ins - I certainly haven't read the thousands of posts over the last few days that I've refrained from posting - what was the point, most of the posters were not interested in fundamentals - just trying to give the impression that the run would never end while they were making sure they got out before the sentiment evaporated.

Ninetails - well done, not an opportunity to be missed.

To support a higher SP it needs UKOG to reveal what's happening at HH and expected outcomes (and not just arm waving rule of thumbs) and a justified expectation of well deliverability in Turkey (and what the risks are for both HH and Turkey) that supports a higher mcap than a single well producing an average of less than 100bopd and about 30% water.

Rises based on steps rather than results are BS, but the rampers don't care.

Ibug,

About your post trying to work out which E Sadak wells were still in production (05 Apr 2021 19:13).

Just stumbled across a screenshot I'd made from the AME presentation at CGEF on 26 November 2020 of a slide titled 'E Sadak Field Production Wells Location Map', with the wells highlighted.

They were:- 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11S

13 was still drilling and obviously 7, 9, 10, 12 not in production.

So 8 wells produced a total of 12,625bbls in September 2020. That's an average of 53bopd per well - 11S the most recent well in production at tha time, which was a sidetrack to 11, was probably producing more, and the earlier wells less.

This will be of no interest to those who believe that fields much further away, in a different country, producing from different reservoirs and not described as a geological lookalike are more representative of what's likely at Basur/Resan.

I wonder how much longer UKOG will stay silent on E Sadak production rates - forever? - unless the recently drilled well/s have half decent initial rates?

Lots of speculation about a placing.

Whilst one may happen there is a limit on shares the BOD has authority to issue without asking for more. My reckoning is around 1.5 billion (others say different) so claims of billions of shares being issued would need a GM.

Conveniently the AGM is likely to be mid-June.

I've mentioned previously (although the post was deleted) that maybe AME would take shares in UKOG rather than cash to pay for seismic and drilling - it would remove the middle man and they might be inclined to keep them?

Ibug, it's debatable from the map in the new licence application presentation as to closest field. Their expectation of a south east extension to Basur/Resan takes it very close to E Sadak. Certainly the closest field in the target reservoir for Basur / Resan is E Sadak.

Wizard,

Of course the applied for licences still need to be awarded, UKOG expected to know if they had been awarded to the partnership in early February, now 2 months later still no word. If anything that might be good news that the area has competing bids.

Also interesting that UKOG haven't mentioned the production from the latest well/s at E Sadak (#13 was being drilled in November last year, expected completion January 2021). I expected them to be all over the initial flow tests and production figures.

Wizard,

But you were posting about Syria? That isn't where Tawke is.

'in Syria with no explanation of the light green highlighted area any suggestions?'

The nearest field to Basur / Resan is E sadak and described by UKOG as a geopogical lookalike - not similar, not in a different country, a geological lookalike.

A bit of research will show that in September 2020 it was producing an average oof 421 bopd from several wells not just one and the ones in production will be out of the 12 drilled up to then.

Whilst you put lies in your posts:-

'AME East Sadak site & itself produced 52,700 BOPD in 2020'

I know that's a lie, and even if you can't understand the monthly production figure ibug posted - in the presentation given at the end of last year AME estimated their total production in 2020 at less than 275,000bbls - or less than 6 days of your claimed output.

That's why I don't mention Tawke, it's as irrelevant as Wytch Farm is to HH.

Funny there's so much excitement about getting permission nobody knew was required anyway.

Late May/ Early June for spud though if AME's timeline is right. As it has to begin before 27 June that's not unexpected.

And

Wizard,

Do you understand maps?

Try the one under Operations - the green areas are not in Turkey.

Research research research.

Preferably before you post.

You're still quoting something that was hoped for ,'is expected', but that has not been proved during the 6 years of since discovery.

'The Oymantepe East Sadak discovery is on trend with the oil discoveries of Tawke and other major oil fields in Iraq, such as the Kirkuk oil field, and is expected to add to the significant resource base already discovered.'

Wells appear to come on stream between about 100 and 500bopd and then decline rapidly, some apparently halving in months. Maybe they then continue for years at tens of barrels - we don't know because UKOG won't give long term well production rates from E Sadak, but with 12 wells drilled (plus sidetracks) total field production of 421bopd a year after the last new well was put on production is hardly gushing.

If the chances of success were so great in this under explored area why has AME waited so long to appraise Basur/Resan, why did the previous occupant of the licences applied for last year not discover a new Iraq size field? Why did the partner in E Sadak not participate in the farm in as E Sadak was so successful and the area has such promise, nor any other operator in Turkey - just a newbie desperate for something different from their previous transformational plays (so they can say it again).

Perhaps since discovery AME discovered E Sadak isn't as hoped for?

'same source as Iraq'.

What matters is the reservoir quality and structure size, not what source rock the oil was generated in. It is important to have a source rock but if the oil then migrates into a poor reservoir or small structure than a field elsewhere in a different quality reservoir and bigger structure it is not an analogue.

HH Portland oil is primarily sourced from the Kimmeridge - North Sea oil is primarily sourced from the Kimmeridge, therefore HH Portland should be as big as the Forties Field?

Rollingint,

Quoting something from the time of discovery of E Sadak is not representative of what happened in the following 6 years - like Ocelot's 1300bopd quote from UKOG's presentation which missed out 'initial rate' and 'up to' which was included in the RNS.

Seems the hope after the discovery of E Sadak (Oymantepe) that it would be like the Iraq / Kurdistan fields hasn't exactly been achieved looking at the production figures.

As for 'You're not going to get the chance to discover an Iraq sized oil field in the Uk.'

You're right - investors in UKOG were told they had found much much more - have a read of the EY report made in 2016 after the initial flow tests.

Billions of barrels I tell ya.

But UKOG still insist on quoting initial flow tests even when there's years of production data they could use to explain what is likely at Basur / Resan.

In the late 2020 presentation Cem showed a graphic with 200bbls/d beside Resan- Y. Is that what's expected by AME?

Rollininit,

'But, equally, you can keep ignoring the positive information too from those operating in Turkey all you like. Pot, kettle, ....'

But the only operator in Turkey producing from a Mardin field is AME - and it's E Sadak. They are hardly going to say it isn't much good having just got UKOG to farm in and pay 100%.

In the UK there's loads of oil produced from the North Sea - the reason I ignore it is it has nothing to do with the reservoirs targeted in the UK by UKOG.

All those operating in Turkey (including the partner in E Sadak) who know so much about the positive information seem to have missed the opportunity to participate in the Basur / Resan farm-in bonanza.

Sweeping statements are all very well but compare what you say to the reality that no one else decided to join AME out of the pool of companies operating in Turkey. We don't know how long AME have been trying to farm it out before getting Xodus to produce a sales brochure a year before the commitment well had to be drilled - and possibly the seismic.

Ocelot

It's a deceit because it's unrepresentative of what the wells achieve in production - and that's what matters. I don't know where your quote comes from but at least UKOG put 'with initial well rates of up to 1,300 bopd.'

Deceit:- 'the action or practice of deceiving someone by concealing or misrepresenting the truth.'

as ozzy would say - truth twisting.

Penguin, you haven't been "accused" of being negative for years....... You *****HAVE*****been negative for years

Whilst Turkey has yet to play out, we shall see what happens if Basur-3 reaches production - and UKOG have made little in the way of predictions - though I see Ocelot continues with the deceit of the 1300bopd I suggest you find all these 'negative' posts over the years that have proved to be as wrong as UKOGs predictions.

Rolloinginit,

Just repeat the company's PR. Ignore any other data, and shrug off anything that is pointed out as being misleading.

Funny thing is I've been accused of being negative for years - have a look at the SP graph - was that just negative posters - or did what UKOG claim would happen not happen because they only put 'good' stuff in RNS or the best possible outcome in interviews.