Member Info for Penguins

Ibug,

pdf is:-

http://docs.petform.org.tr/docs/scout_reports_18112020.pdf

Takes a while to download.

Unfortunately UKOG so far haven't been very good at spreading risk - effectively buying out partners - probably because they were the only comp[any interested - rather than farming out - dumping the risk on shareholders - for the first well and seismic in Turkey they are carrying all the risk. Well done AME!

AME have 88% of E Sadak - is it another indication of perception by other companies.

Ocelot,

'Wells on East Sadak have flowed at 1,300 bopd'

But why won't UKOG quote what the wells flow during production, over a period of time?

Perhaps because the whole field was producing at an average of 421bopd - the whole field - in September 2020 from multiple wells.

I would take actual production figures given out by AME at a scout group meeting over initial rates or OIP, or even recoverable resources quoted with minimal information.

Rolllingint,

We get it you can cut and paste and won't look beyond the PR. Same happened at HH and BB.

There's usually a very good reason that an area is under explored in a region where 100's of producing fields have been discovered over the decades according to AME.

Look at the presentation for the new licences, seismic and wells aplenty to the north west then just the odd stab here and there, and as ibug pointed out the area was recently under licence.

My guess would be the main, shallower target, the Garzan is too shallow which is why the deeper Mardin is hoped for as a viable target.

Rollinginit,

But those fields are reservoired in the Garzan, not the Mardin which is the target for Basur and Resan so not an analogue.

It's the same as posters who should, and probably did, know better quoted Wytch Farm as an example of how good Horse Hill could be rather than Brockham or other Portland fields.

E Sadak is a recent field discovered by AME in 2014 with E Sadak-1 in the Mardin.

The Raman / Basut licence has been held by AME since 2016 and it looks like the Xodus farm-out brochure was a last attempt to get another company to drill the appraisal well. Presumably they had touted round their regular partners in Turkey, and probably tried the other members of the scout group (it is one of the purposes of the meetings) and had no takers so cast the net wider by hiring Xodus - who also do a lot of work for UKOG.

Perhaps their perception of risk was such they were not prepared to drill it themselves, nor shoot the seismic? The problem with seismIc (and wells) is it can be a very expensive way of proving you have nothing.

AME also has an exploration licence to the north of the E Sadak field which was relinquished some time ago.

Ninetails,

Seems my tablet changed your name and I hadn't noticed.......

Ocelot,

It's quite possible that's from 6 or more wells, and 2 wells, one with a sidetrack, put the production up to 885 bopd in August,2019 - only the sidetrack was put onto production. The economics of having to keep on drilling to get the production up again aren't so great, and 11 wells in they abandoned one well and had to sidetrack the other. That's 12 wells in 5 years from the discovery in 2014 to mid 2019. Then there's OPEX and gov 12,5% oil take, and normal taxes .....not exactly transformational. Though we don't know how bad HH is.

If you keep polishing eventually you might get a shine.

Ibug

If you don't find it before - I'll post a link tomorrow though might be busy 'til evening, it was in a subfolder (/2015/ maybe) sort by modified date. Couldn't find a 2021 scout report though, and although the meeting was in November AME only gave production up to September 2020.

Nineties,

There were 12 wells designated E Sadak (number 13 was being drilled in November 2020).

Just been digging again and found a new(ish) scout report from November 2020.

E Sadak, the geological lookalike to Basur / Resan, in September 2020 produced from an unknown number of wells, including E Sadak-11S, put on production in July 2019, 12,625bbls or 421bopd.

Here's the production figures for E Sadak Dec 2019 to September 2020

Dec-19 20668 666.7
Jan-20 18056 582.5
Feb-20 16674 575
Mar-20 19655 634
Apr-20 15125 504.2
May-20 15573 502.4
Jun-20 14219 474
Jul-20 13890 448.1
Aug-20 13489 435.1
Sep-20 12625 420.8

In August 2019 the field was producing 885bopd, a year later the field's production had halved. If the decline from May 2020 to September 2020 has continued, and for some reason E Sadak-13 isn't in production, the field would now be producing about 300bopd.

According to the scout report E Sadak 13 was 'spud' 25/10/2020 and was drilling at 670m - the scout meeting was 18 November 2020. I expected UKOG to release any test information from E Sadak-13 to encourage the investors - maybe AME wouldn't let them.

It's sad that this information is passed to the other oil companies operating in Turkey through the scout meetings and I'd expect UKOG to be fully aware, but UKOG doesn't mention it.

Wizard,

UKOG have designated the next 2 wells HH-3 and HH-4 - so they will be drilled from the surface, not sidetracked from any other well. The compartmentalisation is probably caused by minor faulting or the fractures - though I'm not convinced the reservoir is compartmentalised to a significant extent. It certainly isn't isolated pods of decent reservoir as in the diagram you linked.

Judging by the reversion to 7 to 11mmbls of connected oil and the changed map it may be that any more Portland wells aren't required.

Ocelot,

serious investors will want more than UKOG saying Turkey 'could be' transformational and some titbits about OIP and rule of thumb recoveries to hold on to the shares.

Perhaps information about the geological lookalike that supports the notion of transformational, though the data revealed in scout reports about the 'geological lookalike (E Sadak) isn't even close to what was expected at HH. UKOG are also waiting for the award (or otherwise) of the additional acreage (apparently expected 60 days after 10/12/20 - now 114 days).

More likely to be a flipper at a discount hoping for (expecting?) a P&D (the one that just happened?) based on the control of news flow - extra licences? - drill start? - 4 tankers at HH?

Mirasol,

The water expected was probably not a 29% water cut 9 months after production start, coupled with the need to eke out production at an average rate of less than 100bopd due to pressure issues and the water production - or was it? UKOG was silent after HH-2z about expected production. It would be interesting to know what was in the approved FDP application for HH-1.

Investorinvestor - filtering explains a lot - 'UK needs Oil and Gas... UKOG STRONG BUY... GREAT FUTURE..'

85 bopd - woohoo

Oblivious for years:-

'InvesterInvester
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 1,246
Price: 1.90 Strong Buy
Please PLEASE 05 Oct 2018 15:36
... Would someone/anyone tell me why the SP has not gone up, on this RNS ??????'

'SP ???? 30 Jan 2019 10:26
Can someone tell me why the SP is dropping... can't understand why we are not at 4p minimun ??

The News gets Better... 28 Nov 2019 08:31
.... the SP gets worse... what in heavens name is going on ??? can ANYONE tell me... ??

Yes, but you've got them all filtered...........................

Ozzy,

' (did anyone predict the water ingress, I don't think so) isn't hindsight wonderful'

Extract from this post:-

Penguins Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 2,574 Price: 1.025
No Opinion
RE: Down everyday recently 02 Oct 2019 19:25

'The next thing will be the ewt. There seems to be a certainty that the horizontal will not only flow initially near the top of the range targeted by UKOG (around 1000bopd) but continue to do so for some time. But as I keep getting told ewt's are not necessarily run at maximums or even at quoted long term sustainable rates. There could be issues - finding a water conduit, the well ending up in a less productive zone, or unexpected variation in the reservoir. But unless any of these are catastrophic the well should flow, either with or without esp help, the truly million dollar question is how well.'

'There could be issues - finding a water conduit'

So Cynderlad was wrong to post 'Turkey is dead' - I guess he had his reasons - and the well isn't drilled yet.

'why mention the rampers, this has nothing to do with me or my post'

- as Cynders posts have nothing to do with me - both illustrations of why posts should be qualified.

But you are the one making the association with rampers - there's also those predicting lower prices.

But I'll repeat:- 'The question is whose ifs and coulds turn out to be correct - or closer to the outcome. I struggle to find one made by UKOG (unless it's a day or two in the future) that's turned out to be accurate, or even close to the outcome.'

If I were AME I would ask for the cash to be in escrow to ensure payment so effectively one big cashcall at the start of construction to drawdown, and another at the start of drilling.

We don't know if UKOG are running on fumes but regardless of Turkey if they want to advance HH they will need to raise cash as current revenue might be covering costs (the delay in the Finals avoiding releasing details of their finances) but is there any spare to put by for the HH-2z conversion to an injector, let alone the additional wells. The injector is being considered by the EA late April, whether the OGA will consider it before or after that decision isn't known.

Maybe UKOG will surprise with a detailed plan with revenues, timings and costings rather than arm waving and hoping for the best in the delayed Annual Report and Accounts , at least they've given themselves some extra time to do it.

As for Turkey, whilst AME has multiple fields and been working there for 6 decades the 2020 webinar presentation showed an estimate of total production from all the fields of about 270,000bbls or about 750bopd. Not sure how many wells that's production from, and licence equity's vary, but considering not so long ago UKOG was estimating 2000bopd from just 2 wells at HH the measure of success in Turkey appears considerably lower than that previously expected in the UK. Although out of date figures on AME's web site suggest average gross production per well was at best about 100bopd in the better fields.

Ozzy,

Forward looking statements where there is uncertainty should always have to be subject to ifs, could, etc. (check out UKOG RNS). The question is whose ifs and coulds turn out to be correct - or closer to the outcome. I struggle to find one made by UKOG (unless it's a day or two in the future) that's turned out to be accurate, or even close to the outcome. I notice that the posters claiming an ability to predict the future SP rarely add an if, might or could - and even more rarely get it right.

Nomlungu,

You're right the actual outcome risk / reward is dependent on OP and exchange rate. Written in haste I was thinking more in terms of how oil companies internally compare projects with an OP forecast not varied on the basis of the vagaries of a daily varying OP and exchange rate but rather a long term view of value, and the risk will change with knowledge. Though I would say that Ocelot was just posting about SP over a 3 day period where the underlying risk reward wouldn't have changed.

Ocelot,

The risk reward of any of the current projects doesn't change, what's changed is the hope that it's changed, in your opinion.

Traders baling out of 88e, or any other company, with a short term rise in UKOG is not a change in the long term risk reward. It's expected the same will happen for different reasons at various points going forward as it has in the past. It doesn't change the long term outcome, though there are profits to be made on the journey.

Basing a short term investment strategy on P& D activity is fine, but it will be a long time before the actual risk reward is known, and the SP reacts accordingly - as it has to what has happened at HH and in the past what happened at BB.

Whilst a lot of loose holders will have exited (and probably joined and exited), in the last few days I suspect we will have gained a few 'day traders' high on their 88e profits but not so cogniscent in the ways of a P&D and spiked wondering what happened, having jumped out of the frying pan just in time.....

As for charts, as ozzy would say past performance....... twitter is littered with chartists that have predicted rises that haven't happened.

Ozzy,

I don't have friends or colleagues on this board, nor trying to srop anything to do with oil, if anything all my friends and colleagues are quite the opposite. I certainly have more 'skin in the game' elsewhere than SS has in UKOG - though that would be easy

I have constantly made predictions that things aren't going to turn out as good as posters have'guessed' based on their understanding of RNS, so not just hindsight but foresight, and use facts to support my opinions and explain whyw2.

Of course you think facts are twisted when they are used in an explanation of an opinion. But it would be far easier for me to say I don't think production at Basur / Resan will be spectacular without explaining why.

I have been criticised for pointing out that supposedly 'good' RNS aren't - and why - and then see the dismay as the SP drops on these 'good' RNS, with the market more in line with my opinion. You say they have had difficulties - most are self inflicted, or otherwise they have over promised based on only the most positive outcomes - either completely ignoring or hardly acknowledging the possible risks.

So carry on with your misguided vendetta to try and paint any poster you don't agree with as a swampies etc. - it's water off, well, a penguins back in my case.

PS when UKOG bring out prediction of the future backed up with all the figures laid out and properly explained rather than just quoting the bits they like with no documentation - ie just a PR exercise, then there will be nothing to discuss.

Wizard,

It's not an opinion that the model must have been wrong, making claims about production and cash flow that have turned to dust - or were UKOG only quoting the most positive possible outcome in early 2019, which isn't exactly a glowing recommendation of their communications.

Which is it?

RNS 23/1/19
'HH-1z and HH-2, both planned to start in spring 2019. Planning consent and environmental permits are in place and UKOG is fully funded for both wells'

'Utilising the reported flow rates from the current HH-1 vertical wellbore's EWT campaign, both HH-1z and HH-2 each have targets of initial sustained daily horizontal well rates of 720-1,080 bopd'

Then see the rush of postsmusing these 'targets' as a prediction of the future that never came.

Wizard,

Oh, in that case good luck with assuming anything said in early 2019 is likely to happen as expected then. That was based on success of HH-2z and HH-1 (and drilling HH-1z). Think the model that was based on might have been a bit wrong (actually extremely wrong).

Ozzy,

What 'they've' seen has been massively closer to what has happened than those that post UKOG's PR and make claims based on that.

The fact that it's been 'doom and gloom' is not the fault of the messenger.

Wizard,

The plans atmthe beginning of 2019 were predicated on producing 2000bopd at the end of 2019. At the end of 2020 HH was producing an average of 85bopd plus 34bwpd.

Turkey won't be funding expensive UK wells any time soon even if the wells are successful if production is similar to E Sadak and AME wants to embark on drilling more wells and seismic.

Placings can be just as damaging, and how does anyone know there will be no more CLN. The production at Horse Hill certainly won't fund the proposed programme in Turkey and at HH, and nobody knows what the result will be in Turkey as UKOG ar keeping quiet about likely flow rates, even if it is successful.

In mid January UKOG said HH production of water had stabilised, in December the average was 85bopd with 34 barrels of water per day. Seems that's the oil rate the well can manage with 29% water cut.

Funny how when posters mention UKOG is producing they forget to mention how much.

erm,

Perhaps you should investigate a bit further - 'Basur 3 drilling, this is going to be transformational for UKOG and AME!'

This is what UKOG RNS'd (14/10/2020)
'Basur-Resan is a geological lookalike to AME's proven producing E. Sadak field, 20 km south west, and sits within the continuation of the same geological fold and thrust feature.'

E Sadak has been in production since 2014 - and it hasn't been transformational for AME - rather than pay for Basur-3 in a geological lookalike to E Sadak AME farmed it out to UKOG who are paying 100% of the cost. E Sadak has had 12 wells (maybe 13 now) drilled on it - not all these wells have been successful, including E Sadak 12.

UKOG must have the information on E Sadak production but have failed to mention it. Production data given out at scout meetings (a forum for oil companies to share information) shows that the wells are not spectacular, and decline rapidly.

As for the fantasy oil numbers, I seem to remember the transformational Kimmeridge with tens of billions of barrels OIP (the 124billion was in several Jurassic intervals) with billions recoverable.

These sort of figures disappear as quickly as they appear.

But I don't suppose anyone who invested today is doing so to be around when the well is tested or, if successful, expected production.

Apologies,

I used the word 'borrow', of course I meant swap loads of shares for cash, this is UKOG.

I wonder if they are trying to get AME to take paper rather than cash? Saves the middleman costs.

In the absence of expected news I thought I'd have a go at cynders quiz.

Here's my answers:-

1) Borrow some dosh and have another go at the Portland, when UKOG have finished puzzling it out, and drill a Kimmeridge well updip because what was going to be prolific everywhere looks like it might be limited to structural closures
2) No, unless the Portland becomes uneconomic
3) Waiting on EA approval, then OGA? Cost - who cares, see 1)
4) Wait for the results - ha got you there - they're not even sure what they had up to September last year - wait 'til they can be bothered to put out the interims in September for their cash position now
5) BB - UKOG have got until March 2022, and as planning takes forever they're probably waiting to see if Turkey turns out OK and then quietly drop it - otherwise they could string it out until at least 2024
6) Gotcha again - yes
7) the bonus regime is fair and equitable and sort of transparent - well they say how much it was. Company performance is tremendous, borrowing huge amounts of money vs pathetic production. Transparency over every good thing is their objective, hence why RNS about HH production are few and far between.
8) they kept giving out options that end up underwater - why would SS buy when he knows all the data?
9) IOW depends on the need to string things out even more (see 5)
10) see 1), 4), 5) & 9)

Anything else you don't want to know?

If there is a massive inbalance in buys vs sells I wouldn't say that the willingness to sell to buyers any quantity of shares without raising the price suggests someone is happy to sell an awful lot of at these 'low' prices.

But it's probably the usual manipulation of making sure sells are at mid - or above.

If an institution wanted shares in a placing they would participate - and the transaction wouldn't go through the market.

Nomlungu,

Drilling has to commence before 27 June 2021 according to UKOG - a licence condition.

What that means (conductor?) is possibly open to interpretation, and the authorities (like in the UK) might accept delays in the schedule - say the rig is working elsewhere - but theoretically 3 months max.

That's just another step on the way, but AIM companies (and certain investors) seem to rely more on the steps and go to great lengths to maximise their impact rather than the destination - pictures of a mud track and the well site (piles of earth and a digger) but with drilling so close little in the way of technical information about the reservoir and production from the same reservoir nearby, or what's expected based on UKOG's understanding and view of success and transformational success - and what the risks are.

Transformational,

until the well is drilled and tested - just like Broadford Bridge - 'could be' is certainly a safe way of saying hope - and that's in the success case, whatever that means as UKOG have failed to give guidance as to what's required for transformational success, or any sort of success.

'Consequently, it is our viewpoint that a successful outcome from the BB-1 programme could have a highly material and transformational impact upon the Company.'

a successful outcome in tonight's lottery could be transformational for my life - but the COS for a transformative outcome is very low, winning £3 quite high but not transformative and I could be unsuccessful.

As for AME - AIM listing for access to funding, certainly UKOG can show them the ropes on that - but it's just pie in the sky. Why would AME want to take over or merge with an enterprise that has stayed in business for nearly 7 years by selling shares not oil? If Basur / Resan is successful then it would be a way of getting 100% having paid nothing for the appraisal - so UKOG investors would be mugged anyway.

I don't understand why you think AME would have any unique applicable expertise either - HH has 2 reservoirs that have large amounts of ewt data and I'd expect the consultants to have the latest reservoir engineering software and wide ranging knowledge - but at HH there are only 2 modern penetrations of the Portland and one through the Kimmeridge - although the original 2014 logging was sparse through these intervals as they were targeting the Triassic, as well as hardly any seismic control so the model constraints are minimal.

The impression that UKOG don't know what they are doing is probably more a result of their unwillingness to convey the likely problems they might encounter rather than surprises to UKOG - the surprises are for the investors that expect the (transformational) successful outcomes that 'could' happen.