Member Info for Penguins

TH2,

you've identified about 3 things UKOG have avoided mentioning.

How deep the Garzan is expected to be in Basur-3
How deep the Mardin is expected to be in Basur-3
How thick the reservoir is expected to be in Basur-3

and any timelines for the drilling - that makes 4 just in your post.

Yet they stressed how close the well was to Basur-1 - odd that they weren't prepared to share their well prognosis.

Ibug,

Not entirely clear what E Sadak-1 produced from as the scout report stated that the well was TD'd in the Kiradog formation which is more recent (above) than the Mardin.

This could be because the well penetrated a reverse fault or it could be a mistake as the well might have been targeting the Garzan - and it was assumed that the discovery was in the Garzan and the deeper mudstone/shale formation was therefore the Kiradog.

The next well/s 2 / 2S /2S2 - no mention of TD formation or what the well was producing from - but E Sadak 2/S2 appears to be the second sidetrack - the reason for E Sadak-2/S (the first sidetrack) being abandoned:-

'Drilling string was stuck at 4291 feet . Abondaned [sic] 5th July 2015. Deviated from 4039 feet . See next slide for E.Sadak-2/S2 well data.'

E Sadak - 2 commenced drilling 26 November 2014 and 2/S2 was put on production in September 2015 at 400bopd, field production (assuming E Sadak-1 was also producing) had dropped to around 220bopd by February 2016.

HH,

But they showed the PDC bit yesterday and the tri cone today. Not sure what they are up to with these pictures - maybe trying to infer progress is quick - a drill bit a day......etc.

Not sure what to infer from the side cutters being most worn (not a driller) but the ones on top look unused.

Would heavy steering cause that?

It's a different drill bit. This ones a rolling cutter, the previous picture a fixed cutter.

There's also a subscription offer as well - up to 1 for 1 to your holding.

Subscription shares may be scaled back - I guess depending on the take-up. Last day to take up the open offer (rights) & subscription 21/7 - shares go live 27th according to ii.

SRBS,

Buys going through at less than 0.17p is a good thing?

But thanks for reminding me to have another look at these consecutive posts:-

SRBS Premium Member
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 3,807
Price: 0.185 No Opinion
Over 1 billion traded 05 Jul 2021 11:59
Placing is out of the way- got good opportunity to top up this morning. Glad that the trolls didn’t get their 0.15 p after all the de- ramping.
Ukog united indeed:-))

SRBS Premium Member
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 3,807 Price: 0.238
No Opinion
Last chance to get in at 0.24 today 02 Jul 2021 16:10
Only -1 MM left at this price

Skwizz,

it all depends what you mean by 'happen next'.

Whilst the Loxley hearing is soon UKOG don't expect the decision until Autumn, though it might be the next 'news' after Basur-3 results - so until then, like Schrödinger's Cat, Loxley is neither dead nor alive - though the result is almost certainly going to be in UKOG's favour - so next up after that is paying for the well.

RNS 4/3/21:- 'Based upon the earlier than expected inquiry date and the inspectorate's average post-inquiry decision timescales, the inspector's ruling is likely to be issued in autumn 2021'

Exploration,

Loxley has 2 main issues, the probability of inaccurate depth mapping you mentioned because of poor static corrections and difficult depth conversion, but also the depth map in the 2018 CPR did not actually close at the depth shown - possibly relying on a downthrown cross fault seal.

Godley Bridge is an example of the difficulties with depth conversion - GB-2 and GB-2z were about 4km to the west, Loxley is further away, about 6km to the east. From the 2018 CPR:-

'Godley Bridge-2 and 2z were drilled to the west of Godley Bridge-1, both failed to find hydrocarbon bearing sands. The top Portland was encountered deep to prognosis and below the GWC as seen in Godley Bridge-1'

and there were these comments:-

'The dataset available, therefore, gives significant uncertainty in the assessment of in place volumes, the main issues are:
> The Alfold-1 well reportedly penetrates the reservoir at a shallower depth than the discovery well but is calculated to have no gas pay only some likely residual oil shows
> As mapped Alfold-1 is on structure and above the contact
> The precise location of Alfold-1 and its penetration of the Portland is unknown
> The structure does not close at the depth of the contact to the north east'

As you say the structure is broad and low relief - and dependent on accurate depth conversion - maybe this time they will be lucky and the map is conservative (though prospect mapping is usually as optimistic as possible).

Despite Xodus putting this in the CPR:- 'Recoverable volumes were not estimated at this time due to the inherent uncertainties. Xodus believes that a further modern appraisal well and extended test is required to narrow the current
uncertainties and enable a better estimation of potential recoverable resources to be undertaken' Xodus were persuaded to calculate in place volumes and recoverable resources in a 'study' (21/9/2020) without a modern appraisal well, which UKOG are now touting around.

Oops

that should be:--.....unless Basur-3 not only generates enough cash flow to pay for the cheap Resan well but loads more to pay for a high cost UK well.

Not:- '.......that is if Basur-3 not only generates enough cash flow to pay for the cheap Resan well but loads more to pay for a high cost UK well.'

Redhead,

Yes, figures from the 'volumetric study' that Xodus produced of Loxley to be repeated ad nauseum by UKOG because there's nothing else positive to say (not even a cheap well / easy permissions / 100s of millions of value), and the flow rates from the Portland in the 'discovery' Godley Bidge-1 were so good it's never been developed - though the follow up GB-2 well failed as did the sidetrack of GB-2.

But only a 'study' of the volumes at Loxley rather than a CPR level document so UKOG would be saved having to publish the full document where Xodus would probably repeat the caveats in the 2018 CPR that the mapping had problems.

To be followed next year some time with further cash raises required for almost all the UK work programme as well as Loxley, that is if Basur-3 not only generates enough cash flow to pay for the cheap Resan well but loads more to pay for a high cost UK well.

and after reading (and repeating some) all those RNS and then experienced the results ocelot still believes the Weald will come good because the companies involved in Lidsey, Balcombe, Broadford Bridge (we can forget Baxters Copse, Holmwood/A24, Markwells Wood as all now relinquished) say that the tests were successful - if only.......

Even SS says 10's of millions rather than the hundreds quoted a few years ago, and that needs success, not more 'near misses'.

Ian12,

and the 4 recommender, from the RNS that announced the Defined Director Share Purchase Programme, 28 May 2021 - surely enough time for the BoD to get their s**t together

'The market will be notified of the share purchases under the DDSPP on the next trading day via a PDMR: Director's dealing notification. Further details will be issued in due course.'

- and the reason that these schemes have a pre-ordained purchase day, in this case the first Friday of the month, is so the directors can buy shares in a closed period.

I've been accused of being negative because I have posted information from E Sadak - which is surprising as:

1) UKOG describe E Sadak as the producing lookalike to Basur / Resan
2) UKOG haven't mention at any point what production they expect from Basur-3

We don't have many figures but those that are available show initial rates (if put into production) of between 60 and 420bopd, and rapid decline. Being a producing lookalike suggests it would be what UKOG expect, I suppose disappointment will depend on what happens vs what's expected, or perhaps hoped for.

I've also pointed out that UKOG are very selective in what they RNS - often giving a 'rosier' picture of proceedings than is happening. This may mean 'investors' are sucked in because of this - and get caught out when finally UKOG admit failure, or far poorer results than their RNS'd expectations.

It happened at BB, then HH - can UKOG be trusted to not do it again if results are iffy but say initial flow rates (if it's tested) are good?

Anyway - football to watch...............

beesty

you been drinking already - try and stay awake for the game.

obviously you (and SRBS, and probably ozzy - and the next ramper to object to my posting) don't understand that AJ Bell were alerting UKOG shareholders that there was an RNS - so 'insider trading' what are you going on about -maybe you forgot that there were 2 open offer RNS last week.

ffs it's Sunday but you obviously have NO LIFE!!!! - you obviously don't understand the irony of that statement.

SRBS,

'2 secure messages about the open offer 7 & 9 July' - not the offer - expected tomorrow I believe, maybe AJ Bell and ocelot's broker are more on the ball than ii (and your broker), and HL apparently. This was the message on Friday:-

'UK Oil & Gas Plc - Open Offer
09/07/2021 18:07:56
A new Corporate Action announcement is now available to view on your account.
As a result of the corporate action, any orders you have loaded against this security including regular investment, dividend reinvestment instructions and any reserved holdings may have been cancelled. We recommend that you review any order which you had in place and amend or replace them as necessary.'

Not porkies, just the truth.

Ocelot,

(though I'm filtered I can still reply)

Apparently I don't own any UKOG shares yet my SIPP account (AJ Bell) has 2 secure messages about the open offer 7 & 9 July but nothing yet in my ISA (in ii) account, which as apparently it can't have any UKOG shares in it - why am I expecting one?

According to Oofy that makes me silly to be less positive than rampers ('negative') because I have shares - and of course we have know it all (or at least everything about other posters, if nothing about UKOG) Ozzy - 'Penguin, you are far far too negative to be a shareholder'.

Tony,

That's just a general video of their operations, so from other sites There's no need for a CT unit - it's a alternative way of working over a well if there's no rig available.

It's also casing, not 12 inch drill pipe as you put on twitter. 12 1/4 is the diameter of the hole they are drilling, the casing will be smaller

It isn't deramping it's called accurate reporting

Ocelot,

I wrote 'Whilst HH may somehow be resurrected the time to sell was when it was being hyped (see previous paragraph), ...'

and you wrote:-
'The point I am making, Penguins, is that the time to sell was NOT before it was "hyped"'

I don't know about you but 'when it is being hyped' is NOT before.

Just because I was realistic about the Kimmeridge in 2017 please show me where I recommended or even mentioned selling UKOG shares before BB was hyped in 2017.

But you say:- 'Obviously, if you are always negative on UKOG, then you will always be proven wrong when the share price rises.'

But being negative is relative to ramping like this:-

ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 14,908
Price: 1.70 No Opinion
RE: Value will out 20 Nov 2018 16:11
On the way to becoming a mid-cap?
Looks like it!'

2 1/2 years later - nowhere near.

So I don't agree that being realistic (not negative) about what happened at BB or HH (or even Basur-3) means I am wrong always when the the price rises - it just might not rise as much as some posters seem to think.

But we are going round in circles, you are referring to the SP, I post mostly about operational things, rarely about the SP which (I repeat) can move differently to how things are really going.

btw to hype:- 'promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its benefits'

Ocelot,

I am sure you re making a point - but where do you get the idea I said anything about the time to sell was before it was "hyped" - straw man argument. Read my post again. But it's about time you actually found a post of mine that reflects what you claim - including one where I've suggested selling (or buying) at the time of the post ('the time to sell was when it was being hyped' is an observation about the past).

What the SP does and what is happening operationally may be completely different - although eventually, and hopefully before anyone dies, the SP will come to reflect the outcome.

Ocelot,

'Anybody foolhardy enough to have gone short (or equivalent) at 0.80p in mid-2017 would have been wiped out by the rise to 11p'

Absolutely, hindsight is a wonderful thing that the market could be fooled by RNS saying stuff like, for example:-'I am privileged and excited to have seen, smelt and touched the oil in the KL4 samples' - funny that- any Kimmeridge drill samples will be like that yet SS described it as 'a significant and positive result at such an early stage in the well' - if you get up close to the Kimmeridge in Kimmeridge Bay the effect could be the same.

Yes as you say 'In the stock market, timing counts for a lot' as I said 'I'm not sure what your choice of price points proves in terms of the time it takes for investors to realise they've been had - those that realise it early make the best profits?'

Whilst HH may somehow be resurrected the time to sell was when it was being hyped (see previous paragraph), holding on for the 'revision' would be pretty foolhardy, the same for BB.

We will see what happens at Basur. I may be relatively negative about the outcome to many here (as I have explained before, with possible production figures based on E Sadak, but no doubt to your disgust not SP) but lets see if the RNS are hype or deliverable - you can be sure I'll be commenting.

Ocelot

'You were negative on UKOG when it was at 0.80p in mid-2017. It then rose to 11p and took about another 2 1/2 years before it descended to 0.80p again, in early 2020.'

You chose 0.8p just before drilling, a SP caused by UKOG admitting on 9/5/17 that they were seeking a fund raise, closing price 8 May 2107 1.225p. The drilling commenced RNS was on 30/5/17 SP 1.1p.

But of course I had been negative about the Kimmeridge since the 2016 tests when the SP got to nearly 3p - so a period of mostly dropping of over a year, or maybe since the April 2015 announcement when again the SP reached nearly 3p - another year of dropping.

UKOG issued RNS after RNS in 2017 after drilling commenced that were proved by results to be unjustifiably positive. Innvestors believing the company (and of course SCDM's buying - then selling - spree) got the SP up to a level that depended on UKOG delivering - which they didn't.

It took a long time for investors to realise that it was over but the BB dream finally came to and end with the 21 March 2018 RNS when the SP dropped to a closing price of 1.1599.

UKOG then commenced on the HH ewt dream, again a period of RNS that contained carefully chosen statistics and comments, again proven to be wrong by the results.

It just shows you can repeatedly fool a lot of investors for a while but eventually the outcome is what counts - which is what I comment on.

We shall see what transpires at Basur-3. If there's genuine good news I'll be saying so, what the SP does is another matter as BB and HH have amply demonstrated.

I'm not sure what your choice of price points proves in terms of the time it takes for investors to realise they've been had - those that realise it early make the best profits?