Member Info for Penguins

Funny how attitudes change:-

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1
Oct 15, 2020
#ukog Which one of the eyes will get drawn in to SS Rope a dope tanker trick first.
My money is on ***** Tony or Postman Pat ;)'

and guess who Postman Pat is:-

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1
·Nov 30, 2020
#ukog Here's Wizard the PR guy thanking ***** Tony for filming the rope a dope tankers lol. And HH1AN2 on lse Saying August production figures don't matter. Watch the water figs tomorrow. He is John the post . You can see how ***** these guys are. The love being fleeced'

These are not my words - they are publicly available on twitter - tweeted by bff (until he's sold out again) FOTH.

Of course now FOTH has bought in he doesn't mind the odd tanker trick and now anyone posting about it is worried, yet when he tweeted about it it was to warn investors - here's news for FOTH - I'm not worried, in fact I would be delighted if HH production increased - but the upgrade work wasn't to increase production - it was to enable unmanned production 24/7 and compliance with HSE requirements. They site is already a 24/7 operation.

RNS 20/09/21:-'Works included modifications to prepare the site for automated 24-hour continuous production operations, together with the installation of the first tranche of permanent facility equipment required under the Health and Safety Executive's Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) regulations.'

The constant repitition about one oil tanker Saturday followed by the one this morning after practically 3 days production (Saturday morning to Tuesday morning) is odd, must be getting desperate with no BoD buys (FOTH 'could happen next Friday' - Aug 27 , EA permission (FOTH 'dropping soon' Sep 9) and still waiting for the Loxley appeal decision (FOTH said soon on 22 September), no Turkey news and waiting to hear if the Arreton decision would be appealed.

Maybe a good news RNS, or at least P&Dumpable for a spike, tomorrow......or very soon....or soon....or.....

It's strange that UKOG seem to condone a tanker driver stating on twitter that he's visiting Horse Hill when UKOG won't even mention what current daily production is at Horse Hill of oil, water and gas when they have had the opportunity in multiplt RNS about HH and annual and interim reports.

Only the starting rate of more than 300bopd was ever mentioned, the first time in late April when average production had already declined, though at least there was no water.

Is it because it's possible to confuse by holding back the oil for collection (April 2020 - 4 tankers!) and hoping there's a tip off for a 'lucky' spot of tankers during a rare visit to the site.

It enables those with agendas to every now and then claim it looks like production has improved when it hasn't, whereas those that review the OGA data are called liars - despite average daily production falling gradually during the period since January 2021 when UKOG said they required a year's stable production for a CPR so there is no expectation of massive variation.

The reason I posted FOTH tweets was because he was insisting that the reason that August's production was down was because of the work to upgrade the site stopped production. Maybe it did but the evidence isn't conclusive.

The last tanker seen before 23 September was on 27 August - the 4 September picture was taken on the first trip down the path beside the site by FOTH and JR (and possibly anyone) for a long time, certainly none mentioned on twitter for a while. Although there was a cage over non-production well HH-2z in the picture tweeted by FOTH the pump was still on HH-1.

UKOG said production was halted during the works which took 2 weeks. So had the works finished by 4 September or not started. The OGA figures for September will be interesting.

No tankers were seen until 23 September - which proves nothing. N66BKP who sometimes mentions on his twitter feed he's visiting (hence FOTH can be 'lucky' spotting tankesr) was off for a week from 28 September.

from late August / September from FOTH which probably explains why he's getting nervous:

'27 Aug
#UKOG I am at #Horsehill this morning Friday 27/8/2021. More oil out the gates. Morning N66 .Here's my video and take on why I think UKOG is definitely worth a buy at the moment. Adrian .

Aug 27
#UKOG He's back! Tanker number 2 I've seen today at #Horsehill. @N66BKP 1.30pm this afternoon. Off down to site to fill up with more Crude Oil.

Aug 27
Replying to @Share_Talk@N66BKP and @UKOGlistedonAIMI'm back in to #UKOG. It's bottomed at around .14 imo''

Erm no......

'4 Sep
#UKOG Here's another shoot I took today of the #Horsehill2z #HH2z Well head with the red Christmas tree attached and now fitted with a protective A Frame cage. Protection against heavy plant hitting it.'

So did FOTH think works were about to start for the HH-2z conversion?

'Sep 14
#ukog Good buy in price now before the next big ramp up. ;)

Sep 15
£7k and £3k are my top ups #ukog EA permit is a game changer.'

min buy Sep 15 was 0.134p – £10,000 now worth about £8000)

'Sep 20
I told him and Pingo works have started at #Horsehill. I put pictures up and still that jerk says I'm lying even after today's RNS confirming I am 100% correct. #UKOG Up next the Water reinjector permit. You heard it here first.'

This was the day the RNS about what the on site works were for. I said FOTH had never tweeted what the works were for - just suggested they were for HH-2z conversion.

Funnily enough I wrote this on 2 September in a reply to a post by John Rogan who had posted a teaser post about work on the site:-
‘or it could be to do with this (from Interim Results RNS June 2021):-
'We are carrying out modifications at the site to comply with The Control of Major Accident Hazards regulations (lower tier), as well as other regulations. Liaison continues with the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency ("EA") to ensure the Horse Hill site satisfies these regulations.'
Nothing else is planned this year according to UKOG's Jan 2021 forward plan.’'

this is the first tweet in September I found about tanker/s

'@JohnRogan9 Sep 23
#ukog n66 off on his sunny travels from hh, oil tanker, seems like the flow of oil has improved following the works. Blame frank for the short video, he phoned just as Gregg got to the gates!'

Below is a tweet that has disappeared, seems to indicate that FOTH was trying to infer the works were for HH-2z conversion:-

Freeasabird@davethedrill1
Sep 11
#ukog Did you know? UK Oil &Gas have planning approval for a water reinjector well at #Horsehill.
The well HH2z is drilled and awaiting an environment permit. Public consultation endbded in April this year.
Work onsite is in progress .
Another pic a week ago . New bunding.'

Pboo,

i'm obviously misunderstanding why you are troubled by a poster 'bashing' Adrian.

'And you missed ninetails of that list, we have all seen his many many posts bashing Adrian and others. Bloke is totally out of order.'

In that case I apologise - and am even more mystified why you are posting about ninetails posts about Adrian unless it's to stir up trouble.

Pboo,

'Not trying to stir up trouble in any way what so ever.'

Defending the indefensible posted and tweeted about ninetails?

The type of person you are is illustrated by your seeming denial that there's anything wrong with what FOTH posts when he sneaks on this board or tweets all the time, often about posters.

He's probably laughing at your defending him after all the things he's said about you. Are all those true?

Seems pboo has taken on the role of FOTH in trying to stir up trouble on the board, but has the hinderance of trying to not get banned.

What I don't understand is why pboo defends someone whose opinion of the company, posters and tweeters (especially pboo and the other 'eyes') is solely to do with his share holding. I suppose it's filthy lucre and the hope that keeping FOTH on the board will,suppress those that say it as it is rather than any old hype repeated ad nauseum to tempt gamblers in so they can recover their losses now the tanker trick doesn't work.

Talking of hype it was a 2 years ago today we had the 'patients' [sic] saga, when the board went into hyperdrive with fjones40 (aka Billy Graham?), who had that word from God (aka SS), getting the positive posters to declare their belief in UKOG.

Nearly 50 believers didn't manage to stop the water influx which incidentally SS already probably expected would happen when he said 'patience'.

Of course it's the other person's fault that FOTH has to spill his bile on this board and on twitter - he's a nice bloke really - but you're better not answer him back, even in a measured way because that's not nice.

Pboo knows full well that admin delete the whole thread when 90% of the posts on it are FOTH - or Elanor the belly dancer as presumably he prefers to be known these days - regardless of content - but I can guarantee the only posts that break the rules will be FOTH's.

If I remember, or can be bothered, and want my post to be left alone starting a new thread with a title that looks like the old one including the Re sometimes works..

Switch2(!)

Steve is silent when the only news is bad news - even the news you are waiting ifor sn't that great, the best news is permission to convert what was going to be a transformational well producing around 1000bopd to a water injector, and it won't happen the moment permission is granted, and then there's going to be plenty to do reconfiguring the well for injection and then testing it.

Then there's the Loxley appeal decision which is now longer than Dryboy1's 2 weeks after 17th November. Which is going to be closer than FOTH's 'soon' on 22 September, This is for a risky well because depth conversion is difficult, it won't be drilled for ages and will need a fund raise.

Then there's news from Turkey - the seismic acquisition should have started, not in August as expected in the 2 August RNS but probably early November. This will need processing and then interpreted. AME shot new data over E Sadak in 2019, E Sadak 12 was suspended 'dry' in October 2019 - drilling restarted June 2021, 20 months later - presumably waiting for the new mapping and a rig.

After that there's appealing Arreton which will kick any 'news' into the long grass.

Non-news will be a decision on Finch's high court case decision, it would be astonishing if she won.

Ozzy you posted,

'Penguin, you used a hyphen so it's not a single sentence , i stand by my last post'

Yet another misfire as it's an 'em dash' - used for emphasis or a pause, not the end of a sentence - my posts are littered with them. Not an hyphen even if that's the key I have to hit.

If you want I'll post the full explanation of hyphens and 'em' and 'en' dashes - but I suspect the board is getting fed up with my having to respond to correct your endless misguided attempts to 'prove' you're selective understanding of posts right.

Your time would be better spent researching UKOG's projects not worrying about other posters - you'd be able to engage properly instead of sniping ineffectively from the stands

Ocelot,

That's 2 'ifs'

If JP Morgan are right and,

If Basur-3 is successful. So far they aren't sure of the structure, having stopped drilling to shoot some more seismic, let alone if there's any oil they can get out when they get to the reservoir.

Sorry that's 3 ifs.

Ozzy,

Yes that was much easier to read though the content was odd.

I am very sorry about my bad spelling (see it's not hard to apologise). The reason I bring up Adrian's spelling isn't the spelling per se but the fact that it further demonstrates it is him posting.

So you've changed tack - now I presume you're contending that the 'diligence' bit in yoir 11:39 post wasn't in reply to my 11:04 post because the bit before could be about comments and research in general, not the comments and research in my post.

Of course it 'could' but then I can only go by what you wrote in a post starting 'Penguins, thanks for that', not what you say you meant.

I offered an olive branch - you just wanted to keep digging.

I'd prefer not to but if you keep insisting I deliberately misunderstood your post I'll keep on pointing out it was ambiguous and I was genuinely responding asking what in the post was over negative you've now explained it wasn't so you've actually answered my question - thanks.

ozzy,

you are just getting silly now, you're hinging your argument that for some reason I'm deliberately misunderstanding just because some of the definitions of diligence suit your view - but others suit mine.

diligence means - as you quoted:-

Careful work , or careful effort, or persistent work, or persistent effort.'

Note the 'ors' in the definition you accept - 'Careful or persistent work or effort'

How am I to know what's going through your mind when you write. Perhaps it would help if you used at least some punctuation and paragraphs - streams of conscious may make sense to you but this post was a single sentence interspersed with your trademark '...'. and multiple commas. So there's no unravellabl separation between comments about the post and your comment you say was about my general posting.

But perhaps more important reading through it all again you seem to be suggesting that unless something can be proved there is no point of trying to predict what is likely to happen, especially (or perhaps only) if it's in your opinion 'negative' - and this seems to be a theme of your more general posting.

'nothing can be proven either way due to complexities and lack of information, so that is where I'm coming from when I say there's nothing to discuss'

Did you realise that this board is for 'Share Discussion for Uk Oil & Gas' (not discuss other posters) - you may be 'not qualified to do guesswork in this field' but there is enough information even on this complex subject for a reasonable, justified opinion of likely outcomes - not guesswork - just because you can't doesn't mean nobody else can speculate - and there's plenty that do without any justification.

Anyway as this is getting way off a discussion of UKOG if you want a reply to further posts on this subject I suspect I'll have covered it somewhere in this (or other) thread.

Ozzy,

this is getting ridiculous.

I accept you meant it one way and I took it another - your dictionary definition proves nothing except we can both justify our interpretations.

Ozzy

Careful.........or......

Thanks for acknowledging I was careful with that post or was it the product of my PERSISTENT work on UKOG.

Next time you reply to a post I'll have to remember you may be thinking about my whole oeuvre and not specifically commenting on that post.

Ibug,

indeed - I posted this on 12 June 2020:-

'This sort of pump is for shifting liquids around a site once they are at surface, or they can be used to push liquids into a well (gulp, eg converting HH-2z to an injector).'

Strange they only mentioned using injection as almost an afterthought 'possible' use for HH-2z (perhaps implying the others were probable uses) when they'd already got the pump - from the 30 June 2020 Interim results, I suppose they already knew HH-1 was getting rather wet so would use it somewhere:-

'We are reviewing a number of options for the future use of HH-2z, including stimulation to return it into longterm oil production, sidetracking the well to a different subsurface location and possibly converting it into a
future water re-injection well to further reduce future operating costs (as foreseen in the Horse Hill field
development plan presented to the OGA earlier this year).

Couldn't find the picture from last year though on any of the usual twitter accounts.

Ozzy,
how could I possibly have misunderstood that your reply to my post which included this:-

'I commend you for your diligence although i conclude it is over negative.....but thanks for your reasonable reply'

as being a comment on that post and not a general observation? It certainly seemed like it to me.

Ocelot,

It doesn't look good though does it - spending all that money(100% UKOG) preparing a site and drilling a lot of the well with on target based on a map (if there was one) that's so wrong they decided to abandon drilling when the bit got stuck and wait for the seismic they should have shot befoe drilling - let's hope it provides decent data and enables mapping something close to their pre-drill structural configuration. Given how complex the Basur/Resan structure is there's the likelihood the interpretation will be biased towards confirming the site is OK if the data is in any way ambiguous.

ocelot who endorsed Zakmirs pump and dump by agreeing the SP would be 0.9p by May this year based on nothing at all except a chart and hope - and an ongoing P&D that fizzled out.

Now that was desperate.

If only anything that ocelot said would happen, often by repeating the company's propaganda without a reality filter, or had looked like it would be successful then the so called 'naysayers' wouldn't have had to post honest opinions about the projects and activities to set the record straight.

Calling posters 'naysayers' that at least try to get ahead of the dire lack of information from UKOG - and UKOG's inadequate, late or even completely absent 'bad news' RNS is sheer laziness - it would be astonishing to see a well thought out explanation of why every project will be successful rather than the equivalent of 'your wrong because I don't agree with you'. Looking at the SP chart the reason the analysis is almost always negative is that there hasn't been any truly good news to date. The problem so far with SP rises based on permissions is the delay and then the outcome of the activity.

Ozzy on that theme - you said about my post 'although i conclude it is over negative'. What's your reasoning is it you'd 'like' it to be more positive or is there a basis for that conclusion. I think overall it's more positive than UKOG's statement - I do acknowledge there could be improvements in production (not 'will' be).

Ozzy,

You said:-
'you know that there are no guarantees in any complex procedures' - I think I've been pointing that out for many years - but posters still persist in claiming things UKOG 'expect' to happen will definitely happen.

that was in reply to a post from Adrian where despite 'no guarantee's, and no mention of increased production from UKOG he said there would be.

As for success/failure without full information it's impossible to accurately say, even then I doubt UKOG know absolutely. Will it completely fail - unlikely but possible (10%?) which includes a disasterous rapid return of water to HH-1 from HH-2z through fractures and or the high porosity / permeability zone they were so happy to have kept the horizontal located within - of course, like the water ingress from presumably nearby fractures to HH-1 which took a few months, this wouldn't happen immediately - if it's withing the sweet spot it may herald a brief period of sweeping oil towards HH-1 - which is what would be hoped for but as this doesn't appear to be a 'rising' water leg it becomes complicated.

As for degrees of success up to massively improving production at HH-1 - between 10% to maybe even 80%. But injection is only part of the story. Based on the OGA data the water production increases far more quickly
than oil - even within the tight range of production (averages deviating by only a few bbls of oil a day) that UKOG have maintained. This suggests that a linear increas would mean by 150bopd the water would also be about 150bwpd - whilst oil has increased by ca 50bopd, water increased by about 100bwpd. Then there's gas production - which needs controlling by maintaining reservoir pressure.

But although this isn't guesswork there's a lot of variables and little information and I keep coming back to UKOG's statement which I'm afraid is best repeated in full:-

"We look forward to the conversion of HH-2z into a water injector in the Spring and to the resultant increase in net revenue from the reduction in water handling costs. The significant 66% reduction in general field operating costs over the past year also allows the field to take full advantage of the current strengthening oil price.

Once the injector is in place, to boost production and net revenues, we plan two more production infill wells, one in each of the Portland and Kimmeridge oil pools. These will be scheduled after the potentially transformational initial appraisal drilling campaign at the Company's Turkey Basur-Resan oil discovery is completed, later in the year."

This is from the HH Update 15 Jan 2021, and has been repeated elsewhere since then - saving water disposal costs for HH-1 (good news) but 'boosting' production only with further wells some time in the future after Turkey.

This seems to suggest UKOG don't expect oil production will increase significantly, which is why when Adrian says HH-1 will be producing 300bopd post injection I respond

Adrian,

Didn't say that either - it depends what you mean by expensive, £1mm?

Yeah - ibug was quoting dryboy1, as you are.

Goodnight, best leave you to it

Adrian,

Where have I said any drilling is needed? The CTU or workover rig will be needed to work on the well. A crane may work on a vertical or deviated well but to reach the horizontal will need something that doesn't just rely on gravity.

Why are you saying it will cost lots - I didn't - are you saying a CTU or workover rig will cost lots?

and could you quote (for ozzy who likes facts) where UKOG have said that the water disposal in HH-2z will definitely work for pressure support and they expect HH-1 production from HH-1 Portland to be increased.

Here's one statement from the annual report:- 'to convert HH-2z into a water injector which should significantly reduce current water handling costs and help maximise oil recovery by supporting reservoir pressure.'

Note the weasel word - should. Bit like expected as in:- 'Consequently, the first DDSPP purchase is expected to occur on Friday July 2nd, 2021'

You also misunderstood previously that maximising oil recovery ( a long term aim, and likely to be an OGA condition) meant they would increase the flow rate from HH-1.

Ibug is quoting someone who also said Loxley news would be first 2 weeks in October, and you on twitter tweeted it would be soon on 22 September so we'll see, keeping on repeating it means eventually you'll be right - but wrong every other time, but I have no doubt you'll boast about it anyway - it's what you are.

and btw - it's HH-2z and it's about as 'oven ready' as the brexit agreement.

Lots of work, at least a Coiled Tubing Unit, extra kit and testing to see if it will work - and can't book the CTUor workover rig until permissions come through.

Adrian,

he doesn't know the result of those as far as anyone outside of the deciding body / UKOG knows so he couldn't RNS them today can he - so not news 'he has' as in 'I don't think he has any news, good or bad' - my list is things 'he has' and currently knows - or at least should.

What you're talking about is future 'news'.

I thought in one of your previous persona's here you said the Finch case would be decided the week of the hearing - saying the SP would rise - what happened.

Please don't take us for Fools

Densil
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 65
Price: 0.108 No Opinion
RE: Atrocious 28 Nov 2021 07:43
Just for once moderator take a look at the posts from those pressing the report button right now.

Just for once start banning them not me!'

and:-
RE: Atrocious27 Nov 2021 22:39
Ignor the trader. A1 master class AH!

Note the spelling of ignore - and in other posts:-

'Freeasabird@davethedrill1
#ujo getting exciting .ignor the rat in the kitchen'

and loads of other examples - put this in the search box:- (ignor) (from:davethedrill1)

Ocelot posted:-

'I don't think he has any news, good or bad'

I don't agree, but it's up to you to decide whether the missing 'news' is good or bad.

Perhaps what happened to the application for additional licences to the south of Resan / Basur - of course we know they didn't get them but having RNS'd the application UKOG should update on what happened - is there another 'plan' as this was going to be a focus area.

Perhaps what happened to the seismic acquisition start 'expected' in August, has it now started - of course we know it didn't start in August but why no update?

Perhaps a run down of what's currently being produced at HH - we have never been given any detailed and current information about production from HH-1 - as it would be interesting what the flow rates are when they are producing (rather than the average daily production across a month).

Perhaps whether they are appealing the Arreton planning refusal?

There have also been a few statements about informing the market of results of reports that have surely been completed but not mentioned again:- eg 15/10/19 RNS about HH-2 Portland core:- 'The core is now at a Surrey-based laboratory, where an extensive geological and petrophysical analysis programme is now underway. Results of analyses that directly impact the field's possible increased oil in place and recoverable oil volumes will be reported in due course.

and

RNS 21/03/18 about BB:- 'Equipment is being removed from the site and the Company will update the market once data and test results have been assessed.'

There has also been a new map for HH which will have impacted in place volumes.

Maybe an update on the Kimmeridge - what more than resources did RPS do in 2019?

Maybe an explanation of why the predictions of flow rates at HH was so wrong - what in the reservoir wasn't as expected.

This could all be encapsulated in an update to the nearly 3 years old '2019-2020 Strategy and Drilling Plans'.

I realise this is of no interest to posters who are happy to wait for UKOG to decide when and what to RNS.

PS ozzy this is what should happen. What is likely (what I expect) to happen is very few of the above, maybe Arreton appeal and Turkish seismic acquisition update - though no acknowledgement of the incorrect expectation.