Member Info for Penguins

I'm not sure what the definition of someone who has repeatedly, for years, repeated here sections of UKOG RNS that have turned out to be UKOG claims ànd opinions that have turned out to be wrong is - yet thinks that those that have repeatedly pointed out that those claims and opinions are likely to be wrong are 'naysayers' rather than realists.

Though as naysaying seems to have been virtually 100% correct to date perhaps ocelot and others should be careful who they bestow that accolade on as it seems to suggest those posters understand the more likely range of outcomes beyond what UKOG are prepared,to mention.

'Simon Cawkwell (aka Evil Knievil) is a well-known share trader and short-seller who has posted on advfn under his real name.'

Funnily enough he does on AD*FN - but it's not the account you are referring to.

About 5 minutes research and you'll find that the 'other' account, 'simon cawkwell' without an underscore has pages and pages of posts about Globo in 2013 - which is a famous spat that Simon Cawkwell was involved in - eg from thisismoney:-

'31 Oct 2013 — But Cawkwell described his purchase as a 'bravado buy' and repeated his accusation that Globo only ever raises cash, but never makes any.'

The account ocelot refers to with the claim to have bought 50 million shares simon_cawkwell (with an underscore) - noting about Globo - or anything much at all.

someone here is lacking credibility (and has for some time) and it isn't Ibug.

God on twitter, Yoda here ('Value destroyed due to his holiday in Turkey therefore is') and the real Evil Kneivel) (supposed) on AD"FN - the end of time is nigh.........

........and 3 weeks on ocelot still hasn't reviewed the two accounts and said what he found (best not to do research) or explained why MMs would sell them to anyone at a loss when supposedly the order was at 0.125p - although they would still have made a loss.

Is this really the only positive news ocelot can find - someone emulating a known traders 'style' in 2 posts out of 11 some 3 weeks ago?

Ocelot,

Really:- 'so almost all can now accept it is genuine.'

Only those devoid of any sense of shame and haven't investigated the account posting it.

Here's the content of one of the 9 posts from Simon_Cawkwell before 17 June (from 20 November 2018) - the account with the claim of buying 50million shares.

'Skinny Tan gift set mentioned in The Sun page 15'

I would compare that with the thousands of serious posts from Simon Cawkwell (without the underscore) - I got back to 2005 and there were still more - way before the other account with the claim of buying 50 million UKOG shares.

In some ways it's irrelevant as the SP was dropping (and continued to drop after June 17) from the Loxley appeal dedision mini P&D. An attempt by ocelot to prop up the SP by referring to it to mug a few punters.

Looking at the Simon Cawkwell account posts even 'Evil' gets it wrong.

Pathetic.

Legalease,

I did and the account without an underscore had many many posts that the two posts on June 17 in the account with an underscore were trying to emulate, the few other posts in that account being the usual dross on AD*FN..Hardly the history of a well known shorter.

But no answer to the MM acting as a charity supposedly letting someone buy from them so they would be making a loss.

oops,

shouldn't be '13 June' here:-

'two accounts on 13 June AD*FN' > 'two accounts on AD*FN' makes more sense.......

PS ocelot said he has me on filter - but like UKOG who never respond ocelot's posts needs to be responded to.

Ocelot,

obviously doesn't nderstand that the business model of the market makers is that they buy low and sell high - and there was no opportunity for them to buy 50 million shares below 0.123p to sell to someone buying - and there was the small matter that the spead dropped - apparently so the 'sell' would look like a buy - no sorry so that they could gather £30 worth of shares at 0.12p and just under 3,000,000 at 0.122p that afternoon.

But has ocelot checked that it was impossible to provide those 50 million (have a look at the chart the sell price was above 0.125 since 31 May and the claim was the order was put in on June 13 when therange was over 0.14 - no, has he compared the two accounts on 13 June AD*FN, one with the claim a few posts - the other loads of posts that have the right 'feel' - no

Apart from claiming AD*FN wouldn't allow a fake account - he's offered no justification to believe the claimed 'buy' - but what if the other account was from another person with the same name who previously hadn't tried to appear to be Evil Kneivel and had to insert an underscore to use his own name? I found 5 just now on facebook.

Why doesn't ocelot look deeper - like any UKOG 'positive' claim research discovers that certain things just aren't likely - and it's pretty obvious ocelot's level of research consists of copying bits from Bloomberg, AD*FN trade volume, OP, Gas futures, copying UKOG (and ANGS) RNS (without question) and of course barchart.

Any straw ocelot can grasp.

Ocelot,

you're starting to look desperate - this was my reply on 17 June, and nothing has changed in my opinion that it was not the real Simon Cawkwell and not a buy because the MMs would have lost money on the deal.

'Ocelot,

Interesting.

I didn't realise the market was so charitable.

This week the only trades I could find below 0.123p were 3 trades this afternoon totalling £30 and a single trade just under 3 million shares.

Yet an order to 'buy' at 0.125 for 50,000,000 shares was filled at 0.123.

I couldn't understand why the price collapsed this afternoon until that trade appeared. So the spread came down to accomodate that trade??? How does that work?

'Simon Cawkwell (born 1946), aka Evil Knievil is a famous spreadbetter who is highly successful at betting on companies whose share prices he believes are going to fall ('shorting').''

as for

'Volume of 22.4m, 6th biggest volume stock on the market, as per a rival site.'

laughable for a share trading at around 0.11p - I expect every FTSE100 share would beat it on value - nearly 30million (on a rival site0 or about £33,000 - until yesterday I had nearly that in AZN.

Surprisingly it's very hard to find a tweet from UKOG that is anything but positive about the future, one of many:-

UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM
Nov 27, 2019
HORSE HILL NEWS: Chief Executive Steve Sanderson says: “We remain confident that the 2,500’ of permeable Portland sweet-spot reservoir section can deliver significant flow rates. Looking forward to safe and successful EWT operations.'

That was after they already knew that there were fractures at the toe of the well - which is why they stopped drilling before reaching the pronosed MD which was planned to give 3000ft of reservoir section.

Perhaps they forgot to put 'oil and water' before 'significant flow rates'.............

Without substance I'd treat anything UKOG tweet with suspicion. After all the tweet was true but I'm pretty sure no one expected it to be flowing significant water from day one.

Ocelot,

The idea that Simon Cawkwell would have 2 accounts, one which was well used in the past and had serious posts and one which was filled with the usual rubbish posted on AD**N is absurd.

Of course it was the 'rubbish' account that claimed the trade which was almost certainly a sell was a buy.

Why do I say it was a sell - at the time I investigated the trades for the week and there were very few at a lower price so an intermediary(Market maker) would have been selling at a loss at 0.123p when the business model is to profit from the margin between what they sell at a (buys in the market) and buy (sells in the market) shares.

Looking at history ocelot seems to have become more desperate clutching at ever more fragile straws as the SP sinks - I'm starting to think ocelot doesn't sell on the P&D which ocelot so often joins in on which would make him - well I'll leave that to others - rather than the assumed market operator guise.

Ocelot,

It was established that it was a fake account claiming to be a known shorter (evil kneival), - probably someone worried (like ocelot) the 50,000,000 'buy' was more likely a late reported sell.

If it was a buy whoever bought has already lost £7,000 assuming they could sell for 0.109p - £500 for every thousandth of a penny.

Ocelot,

you may not have asked me but:-

For 25% - 25% of costs going forward only

But they would have to assess the risked NPV based on their assesment of risk and possible reserves / production which might be very different from UKOG's.

I assume ocelot doesn't see my posts but it's possibly unfair to claim that ocelot 'believes' every claim by UKOG.

Prepared to repeat any seemingly positive claim on this board is probably a better way of putting it - though possibly a worse reason.

The funny thing about placings is they're expected because of the anticipation from RNS that UKOG is actually going to do something other than just keep paying the BoD salaries. It's pretty clear now the long grass filled with jam beckons.

Ibug,

As for FOTH - yes we won't know the current figures for HH production because it's a dirty secret that UKOG prefers not to mention. I wonder what percentage of 'investors' even know that NSTA publish figures or read this board so have little idea what UKOG produce on average daily?

Otherwise I'd refer you to my recent post where FOTH's prediction based on his unique ability to make stuff up, was spectacularly wrong (77% too high - presumably when he was holding - guess he's bought in again and needs the cash).

Ocelot,

'Suspect that Loxley is sufficiently attractive that interested parties will themselves approach UKOG, (but can always be mistaken, of course).

Of course you can be mistaken - you have been for years because you believe every claim by UKOG to be an upcoming fact rather than an opinion (might, could if etc) about their projects.

It does take time from claim to reality, nearly 2 years since the transformational Turkish deal that offered huge resources and rapid monetisation paying 100% of the first $5mm for 50% equity Now, after one dud well, not sure what's next, though finally publishing a subsurface map - not showing 60 sq km of anticline but a small structure consisting of a poorly controlled 'bump' and a tiny closure around Basur-1 - illustrates the possible difference between pre drill and post drill mapping.

The ?? was an emoji of a Penguin - see original on twitter - though I expect FOTH will now remove it.

'Ibug and ?? says HH'

....then SP drops mystery.

But luckily it's a positive as shares approach 10 a penny because volume is huge.

Last time the well was shut in the average daily production dropped, though FOTH claimed it would be 108 bopd in December 2021 / January 2022 because he knew what was happening.

'TheFoolonTheHill@davethedrill1
Jan 15 #UKOG
OK Let's see who is full of s***e.
I'm calling Ibug out on @LondonSouthEast
Let's see who's nearest. ?? December /January. #Horsehill production is 108 bopd.
Ibug and ?? says HH is down to 49 bopd and declining. Bulls**t'

PS I never said 49 bopd, or any prediction as the work was all surface equipment related - though it was a lot nearer than 108bopd! Why the bopd dropped from over 80bopd before the works to about 60 afterwards is another mystery.

Can't wait to see the new seismic programme planned for Horse Hill which has not been acquired yet despite previous 'deadline' dates being missed. Sounds like another perfect excuse to not do anything for another year while waiting for it - look what's happened at Basur Resan.

Maybe SS could get off to the caribbean in the lull though not on the profits from his reluctant share purchases.

Ozzy,

The problem with the SP is that the 'manipulating deramping naysayer trolls' have been right about the likely outcomes of UKOG's projects - in contrast to all the positive outcomes predicted by UKOG and erepeated incessantly by ocelot. Predicting why the price might drop because of failure is not the same as willing it to.

I suspect that the outcomes were actually a possible outcome expected by UKOG - just that don't (daren't) do 'negative' for obvious reasons.

In the latest Turkey RNS the news about Basur and Resan should have been highlighted rather than after 4 paragraphs of puff about an inconsequential oil seep.

Of course those of a certain disposition seize upon this supposedly good news (it must be because UKOG went on and on about it) rather than the bad news that followed.

Given how focussed on OIP and recoverable they were based on maps they declined to show in 2020 it would have been trivial to calculate at least the OIP of this new 'bump' that's in the region of about 4 square km rather than the 60 square km mentioned in the 20/04/2022 RNS:-

'....in the Company's view, that both Basur and Resan are part of the same 60 km² anticline...'

They are now distancing themselves from this as Resan is risky, but Basur, especially this one (strike) line bump, is still OK.

As for ocelot and Loxley Loxley, not much said in the interims, and certainly no mention of seeking a farminee. But it makes little difference to the commercial risk unless they get as good a deal as AME did for Basur / Resan. - but ultimately it needs to be successful at an as yet unproved location.

...and a small speculative contract for gas (against UK consumption of hundreds of millions of cubic metres per day) is hardly setting the price for winter 2023.

Oil seeps are useful in unexplored/undrilled basins to indicate there's a working petroleum system.

Finding one just 4 km from an exploration well that flowed 500bbls may be interesting but is not exactly an earth shattering discovery when there is an oil field to the south east (E Sadak) and others to the north west, we have also been told there are multiple oil shows in wells within the block let alone the thrust belt. It may even be bad news that the apparent faulting is providing paths for any accumulation to leak. A litre every now and then may not appear to be much - over millenia it can add up!

No one needed to find an oil seep - except apparently UKOG to try to distract from the continuing bad news emerging from Turkey.

Odd ocelot doesn't highlight the other news in the RNS that this new line is needed to confirm whether an unexpected, but much needed, closure that's appeared along the bounding fault to the north west of Basur-1 (which appears to have tested a minor closure) exists and the larger of two main targets (Resan) previously the next target, and then possibly the next target, is now on the back burner because of uncertainties that may well be present along the whole anticline, including the Basur segment.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about the seep is that it's got to a layer just 4 metres below the surface - but (apparently) there's no seep at the surface anywhere nearby - or is it, as has been suggested, that no one has looked for one, or will that be the next revelation.

It was 41.7API (slightly degraded from the E Sadak 43API, but better than the Basur-1 35API) but looking at the videos it does seem strange there's no oil staining around the holes - if it is a 'live' seep (that the API would suggest) it didn't make it the last 4 metres to the surface as there was a route through the shotholes - were the videos of the 2 new holes rather than the original hole?

Seems that if a field crew was checking out shotholes there (possibly on an abandoned but previously programmed line through the new high) they're a bit more advanced in deciding to shoot a new line than suggested in the RNS>

Anyway with Basur-1 subsurface location was only 4 km away it doesn't seem that remarkable that there's an oil seep in a thrust belt not previously seen because presumably there's coincidentally a near surface sealing layer.

'Has UKOG's exploration luck just made a turn for the better?'

No

They've just found something to fill 4 paragraphs in a RNS that was essentially bad news with something that some might think is 'positive' (cf ocelots continued posting about it) - yet they've a well nearby that tested 500bbbls (but stopped with the production of water) proving there's a working hydrocarbon system - 'seep' not needed, a distraction, 'look over here - not there.

Actual news:-
B3 drilled in the wrong place - should have shot seismic before choosing a site and subsurface target.
Mapping of Basur-1 area shows a tiny closure (not said but look at the map), with a closure to the north west they don't show seismic over which will need more seismic to confirm - probably mapped from the new strike line as no legacy data covers it - but surely need a dip line to confirm.
Resan currently considered too risky so probably the current OIP and 'potentially' recoverable will take a big hit.

But the Resan Basur was said to be a single accumulation:- 'indicates, in the Company's view, that both Basur and Resan are part of the same 60 km² anticline'.

'Analysis of further geological information obtained from legacy wells in the Resan area indicated that, whilst oil shows were encountered at similar levels to B-1, questions arose as to reservoir quality and the increased chance of fractures acting as conduits for underlying formation water ingress. Consequently, at this time, plans for a vertical Resan-6 ("R-6") well have been put on hold and the partnership will focus on the Basur area, where oil has flowed to surface at reported good rates.'

So the problem is poor reservoir and fractures acting as water conduits in part of a single accumulation.

But this is what they say about B-3S:-

'B-3S trajectory presents possible drilling issues. It crosses the major backthrust fault in fractured limestone rocks with possible lost circulation and stuck pipe risks and associated higher costs.'

Faults and fractures - sound familiar?