Member Info for Penguins

'Much Ado About Nothing'

Though it's a comedy, not a tragedy.

HH1AN2,

First site prep

If successful testing of course - then UKOG will firstly need more than one producer there's risk with only one if you borrow against the field and/or hedge production, also should acquire 3D - all this to determine the right size of infrastructure which is far more complex than a few more or less tanks required for oil, you don't want to build all the kit needed for say 10mmscf/d and it produces only 5 nor too small if it would produce 20, also connect it to the grid, pipeline size - more complexity wayleaves etc.

Planning needed for extra well/s, seismic and the development - even if passed at the first meeting the application still has to be written and once passed built.

I'd say 2024 very earliest for first sales gas if everything fell into place including starting site prep tomorrow - ie not the usual lackadaisical UKOG way.

Ocelot,

can you imagine the time they could spend even with a failure at Loxley - a load of BS about 'learnings' then an application for a sidetrack - drill it and guess what - same result because it's the geology that's the problem.

Has UKOG not got enough information from months of Kimmeridge testing at BB and HH -and more importantly a great deal of core from BB-1. They didn't bother to drill HH-2 through the Kimmeridge as planned - what are they really going to find out from the Kimmeridge at Loxley they don't know and could have applied years ago?

Oh dear, things must be desperate if ocelot is trying to ramp

'Gas is currently the glue ....'

But UKOG has no 'current' sales gas nor will have, even if Loxley is successful, for years

What is the value 49 BCF of gas as a takeover target?

Nothing if it isn't there.

These P&D aren't what they used to be......

More news needed or the lifeboats will be full - and we'll have to put up with all those stranded wannabe 'traders' wondering what happened.

But when will UKOG have sales gas, will the well be successful - posters write as if gas has already been found at the site yet the discovery well is about 5 kilometres to the west of the site - and there's a well a similar distance to the east that was plugged and abandoned dry. The discovery, Godley Bridge-1 was never developed with an appraisal well and sidetrack also dry. The operator's map isolates the Godley Bridge Field from the Loxley well proposed location.

UKOG in the AGM notice writes-' .......PI expect the SoS to issue his decision on or before 7 June 2022. Should the Company be granted planning consent then it would plan to commence activities at the site upon discharge of relevant planning conditions, possibly later this year'

- possibly later this year for activities - doesn't sound like they expect to be drilling in 2022 - perhaps not even starting site works, and they don't have the cash to drill it anyway. Farming out threwell may of course reduce exposure - at a cost of equity if the well is successful and still may leave costs for UKOG.

Justbe,

with over 2,000 posts you know that's a function of the bias in the spread. Lots of buys going through as sells.

Northfork,

not sure the planning committee councillors are highly paid nor that in Surrey they're all lefties and greens. More likely worried about nimbyism, maybe in the current climate that will change though the shires voters might be more worried about their house value than their gas / electric bills.

The professional planners recommended passing the planning permission.

As for 'The Company requires positive news, from Turkey, HH, Loxley, but we are hamstrung with red tape.'

HH now has all the permissions needed and could have drilled 6 more wells since September 2019.

We were told Turkey was bureaucracy free - seems there might be a disagreement with AME though on what well to drill - and even if permission comes through soon the AGM notice makes no mention of drilling paid for out of the requested share issuance.

gizza,

1) If your buy is showing as a sell that's a clear indication that the spread is hiding that what investors are prepared to buy for is dropping.

2) Did the ramping last week mean a lot of those hoping for a frenzy on or before the 'expected' delivery date of the Loxley decision bought last week in anticipation of selling - now getting twitchy that maybe it's 'delayed' - though 'expected', as long term holders of UKOG shares know, can also mean not expected.

Perhaps the government / tory ministers have something else that's keeping them busy?

Wizard,

'With forward oil price projections now of $150 - $200 per barrel it is in all UKOG investors interest for production to be maximised at the earliest opportunity.'

But as the OP has been high for some time now why when the water disposal cost has probably only risen little have they not increased production.

Perhaps instead of worrying about the OP you should do some research on subjects like 'pressure', 'associated gas production', 'bubble point'. 'hydrostatic pressure', 'water production from high pressure fractures in a normally pressured reservoir', water injection in a fractured reservoir' etc......

I suspect UKOG have.......and it's a complex issue they are facing - hence little in the way of predictions for the outcome of water disposal except disposal cost saving - and unfortunately even without water disposal costs with salaries alone being £1.5mm revenue won't exceed OPEX plus overall general expenditure expenditure without the various ambitious project costs.

Wizard,

Not sure about non-verbal communication. The verbal communication 'interviews' witn SS seem to always be how great some new project will be rather than how well the current ones - which once upon a time were the great new projects - are doing.

It's lucky that the NSTA publishes monthly production otherwise pi might think that the last mention of HH-1 flow rates which was over 300bopd was still valid, which was meant to be increased when a bigger pump was installed and optimised when the well was reperforated in 2020. The monthly figures showed a different story of decline.

UKOG mentioned months after it started, after the then OGA figures had already shown HH-1 was producing significant water, that there was water production from HH-1, but UKOG has never stated the volumes of water from HH-1 or what the water cut is in an RNS.

What reperforation?

The site work last year that FOTH was keen to suggest was a workover of the well was just tidying up the site a bit and HSE requirements, nothing in the hole. The latest reperforation of HH-1 was in 2020, they also tidied up the production string if I remember correctly. It didn't halt the decline.

Asking for authority to add nearly 10 billion shares to the register doesn't exactly look like they expect a massive rerate to fund the next year's activities.

Depending on progress, which is often snails pace, there could be drilling at Loxley and there should be drilling in Turkey as we're told everything happens quickly there - though experience so far suggests otherwise. HH-2Z should be converted this year and site preparation could also start at Loxley - the AGM circular doesn't mention actual drilling at Loxley. There's lots of studies presumably involving lots of specialist consultants for all the other distractions as most are outside the expertise of O&G professionals - though maybe a few holidays in the USA to get mugged there - not sure that shows much faith in the Resan/Basur adventure delivering, nor the failure so far of that project UKOG's ability in selecting new ventures.

So whilst some posters claim HH-1 will blossom with water injection it doesn't look like UKOG is banking on a massive improvement in oil production there, and thus cash flow from that asset and hopes shareholders will approve potentiallý massive dilution if just 'news', rather than results, doesn't raise the SP.

There's still some authority left from the 2021 GM - just over 1.2 billion + about 3.5 billion allocated for open offers. This AGM the split is 6.5 billion 'dis-applied', 3.2 billion available for shareholders in an open offer.

Just looked in - I've answered your question about 'bashing' and only a fool would attempt to predict the SP of this company - many have of course - £ party, 2p / 5p, Zak Mir 0.9p - I rest my case.

But, I see you won't deny that you are indeed Adrian / freeasabird (banned here) / FOTH etc on twitter, and miriad guises here. I suppose you wouldn't be able to whine on twitter about being banned (again) - for beig banned, if you did.

Just interested if you can be honest, but I think most here know the answer to that..

But as for this:-
'I see as usual Penguins you still 'refuse' to explain why you have bashed this share, and Only this share!! For years.'

I'll repeat:-

I can't see that telling it as I see it - which is predominantly negative - is bashing when that negative view is somewhat bourne out by the SP chart - except apparently the last nearly 4 months.

Perhaps you could identify some of what you're calling 'bashing' that has been proved unjustified in amongst all that that's just realistic opinion.

I suppose research isn't your 'thing', just wing it with your accusations..........

By the way I can't see that telling it as I see it - which is predominantly negative - is bashing when that negative view is somewhat Bourne out by the SP chart - except apparently the last nearly 4 months.

Perhaps you could identify some of what you're calling 'bashing' that has been proved unjustified in amongst all that that must surely just be realistic opinion.

I tell you what, I'll predict that the price will rise on news and fall back on no news during next week, next month, next year.

What's your price target to sell as you are a declared trader.

I'll act based purely on what happens. Maybe everyone that wants in on Loxley news has already bought and there will be more sellers overall than buyers if the price rises, all those that bought below 0.1p for starters - though they should have traded a few times already.

Seems this is a great revelation to you, given how much you're banging on about it that the price sometimes rises on news though I've been saying it for years.

How about you deny you're Adrian / freeasabird / sallyanne / FOTH on twitter?

Then we'll know you're a liar, and if you don't............

HH1AN2,

pity Adrian hasn't done the same having made so much from selling at 8.6p

Chandosflow Posts: 137
Price: 0.1375 No Opinion

RE: Did you know? Oil @$121 Sat 11:32
Sold at 8 .6 made 95 k

Sorry that's a coincidence, that post is from chandosflow........yet Adrian on twitter makes the same boast every now and then

Adrian,

For contemptuous posting I think this deserves another outing (not worth wasting time rewriting stuff that you'll try to bury:-

'You looking forward to next week Pingo?

LOL.'

I'll quote ninetails:-

'Optimism is returning for a trader’s spike, don’t get me wrong I am looking forward to it…but what then ??'

and you:-

'Should be a great opportunity to make some money with a little luck '

So you'll be selling - lovely, so you don't expect the rise to hold, so what's all the BS about how great Loxley and HH are?

lol

Usually posts about subjects that UKOG has no control over, oil and gas prices - often Blomberg opinion pieces.

When ocelot posts about UKOG it has for the main been nonsense over the years based presumably on a belief in always being right..

Just after the April 2021 spike this was his take on the next placing:-

'ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 18,297
Price: 0.318 Strong Buy
RE: Huge 12 Apr 2021 10:09
Exactly, Dreamland99.
Even if there is a placing, it will be absorbed pretty easily given the current market cap and trading in the stock.'

Firstly the SP was 0.315p, and oelot's,opinion was strong buy having changed from 'buy' during the previous weeks P&D.

''will be absorbed pretty easily'

Quite the opposite even though when the placing took place (July 2021) Basur-3 was drilling and the placing managed to completely destroy a rise on the news of drilling accompanied by a P&D, and it's difficult to understand why anyone bought shares during the subsequent open offer when the SP was below the offer price - perhaps because ocelot's opinion was still 'strong buy'.

This is an ocelot post during the weekend before the placing was announced on the Monday, 07:00:-
'ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 18,297
Price: 0.24 Strong Buy
RE: Buy 03 Jul 2021 11:07
Penguins,
Given UKOG's lowly share price and market cap, the downside risk is, imho, as near to minimal as is possible, so the risk/reward ratio is, in all logic, attractive'

and this (the first part was part of my post):-

'RE: Buy03 Jul 2021 11:43
... there's also the possibility UKOG are facing difficulties getting a cash raise away ...
-------------------
Highly improbable, imho.
The destination of the funds is clear, principally to contribute towards the funding of Basur-3 and follow-up work.

Personally, am looking forward to the next fundraise and am intrigued by the prospect of Turkish participation (although, unless someone takes a disclosable stake, we will never get an indication as to the extent of this).'

Indeed they didn't have any trouble getting the placing away - you'll note the Friday closing SP was 0.24p - the placing was at 0.18p. On Monday the SP dropped to just over the placing price and continued to drop - the open offer at 0.18p was a damp squib.

Here's another patronising post from ocelot over the weekend:-

'RE: Buy 04 Jul 2021 12:22
Penguins,
Imho, as an investor in UKOG, I think you can begin to relax, the worst that can happen is that you make some money because the share goes up, (the 2nd worst, is that you make less money than you could have done because you didn't reinforce when the share was cheap).

Think we may be heading for something rather different than a spike, think a fundamental re-rating may be in the wind.'

Hmm, smooth words. Not sure if the drop from 0.24p to around 0.18p the next day and then being below half 0.24p for long periods counts as a rerate. At least it's now more than 50% of that spike.

Ocelot,

regarding placings, you posted:-

'Those who wish to interpret it in a positive sense will emphasise the attractive projects the company seeks to progress through the funding'

I suppose that depends on how 'attractive' those projects are that UKOG intend to spend the money on - what's the chance of success - and what will that success be - UKOG make lots of vague statements about the pojects.

Economics are never mentioned is it because spending cash raised doesn't need commercial justification with no debt to pay back - just dilution for pi.

Because UKOG don't say anything much these days about the projects little is known about Loxley apart from GIIP and assumption of success '200,000' houses with no explanation of the expected annual production predicted (number of wells? expected flows?) - and for Basur an unjustified and almost certainly wrong OIP - as the structure wasn't as mapped - if there was a subsurface map - as the well missed the closure.

Will water disposal work at HH in the fractured Portland - no assessment of the risks - and no assessment of reward to compare outcome to UKOG's expectations that they surely have.

Is the lack of detail on any of the projects because their 'positives only' RNS been so wrong about every project so far.

Adrian,

I think the desperation is all yours, how many rubbish posts so far today, yesterday?

Perhaps you need to get your sallyanne twitter account fired up to recommend your posts as recommending your own posts looks a bit underhand.