Member Info for Penguins

Ian12,

'With a Consortium, Major energy company, Government Funding, Grant's. £1billion is peanuts. Gla'

You do realise that the 'consortium' with a major energy company is nothing to do with the storage project:-

'the Company is now investigating the feasibility of linking Portland's planned hydrogen-ready salt cavern storage into an envisaged future hydrogen hub centred in and around Southampton by a consortium including a major energy company'

They're hoping to link to that consortium which appears to already be in place - so presumably the hydrogen bit of their original plan using the offshore wind farm is now unlikely.

As for government funding / grants (aren't they the same thing)- unlikely to be significant, if UKOG think they can find co venturers then they won't need it - but co-venturers will also want a bug slice,of the project if they are the major funders.

Presume investors here have exposure to other AIM companies so will be looking forward to lots of RNS about the gas storage project announcing talks with third parties (can't tell their names), months of discussions, due diligence, then either not interested or don't agree the terms - or possibly no longer mentioned and a new strategy emerges.

The same may happen with Loxley farm out - let's hope if there's already an interested party, as suggested by ocelot, and they are prepared to pay a premium and ignore the local hostility by some and get it underway soon. I'm sure threatening to sue a local Councillor won't affect the ongoing need for planning conditions to be agreed.

As UKOG put it 'now for July'

Is this it- If that's a great RNS I'd hate to see a bad one.

Nothing about Horse Hill. Seem to remember posters claiming that the water injection would help raise oil production massively at the same time as reducing OPEX per bbl - you'd think they would at least try it as it's probably the cheapest project going forward.

So now we're back to raising funds to shoot seismic over presumably the 'one line' feature to the NW of Basur-1 and the new possible what sounds like a 'one line' lead to the south, yet - let's select another well site - before we've shot the seismic - how'd that go last time ..........and still they stay silent on the production levels per well at the lookalike field to the south east which at best are similar to HH-1, with possibly worse decline and they only own 50%. Surprising that they didn't noticed the oil in all those shot holes earlier - still at least they proved there's a working oil system previously proved by the nearby Basur-1 well.

As for the billion pound project seems they're still touting it around, with the change in emphasis is there a rival project - so they hope to keep the punters happy with a pretty diagram of it - seem to remember a similar thing, also done by Xodus, for the Kimmeridge, my those were happy days, sites across the Weald, billions of value, rather than expenditure:-

'XODUS, Jurassic Tight Oil Conceptual Development Study, 05/10/2015'

and finally with a possible appeal against the SOS decision and apparently a threatened libel case against a Waverley Councillor they're going to farm out Loxley - the sure fire, or is it the risky proposed gas well otherwise given the constant bigging up of the gas in place figures surely drilling Loxley would be the best place to spend working capital rather than Ill defined leads in Turkey or pie in the sky gas storage?

Interesting,

'No worked figures, not possible in the current state of UKOG's principal projects'

Flying blind because UKOG, despite having years of data for HH, and designating both Basur and Loxley as appraisal projects have given zero expectations since making claims that the appraisals are transformational and of course HH is a gusher.

Now there's the probability of more seismic over both Basur and HH as the current coverage is presumably inadequate. Given Xodus reservations about mapping at Loxley UKOG will bite the bullet and acquire some more data there as well whilst waiting for the many planning conditions to be responded to.

Ocelot,

Who projects himself as super knowledgeable about the market......

Yet as far as I can remember where UKOG is concerned has not got one prediction right - though rarely makes any predictions.

Those that research the companyalso realise that some posters have no idea what is likely (especially if they filter the realists that post) and believe every RNS claim or expectation - and although stupidity is expected it's difficult to predict how stupid so reffain from prediction things like 0.9p by the end of May 2021 in April just because of a mini P&D that fizzled out at about half that.

'There is rarely any positivity posted'

Maybe that's because there's no positive news about the company. Most of the so called positive posts Re about things out of the control of the company and guesses at a future share price.

I wonder if one day the penny will drop and those posters that moan about negative posters will notice the correlation between so called negative posts and the dire performance of the SP - and it isn't the negative posts that caused it.

JUst looking at the second quote the 'low' price was 0.226p!

'ocelot
Posted in: UKOG Posts: 18,826
Price: 0.226 Strong Buy
RE: RNS 01 Jul 2021 07:29
UKOG's share price is low because expectations are low. It will rise when expectations rise.'

and is it parody or imitation?

'There are very few market observers who believe it is the bulls who are the dominant force when a share price is not far away from its all-time low.'

really - those P&D days when the board and twitter is filled with 'bulls' when the SP is low - it's the bears that have most influence? The most obvious thing is that without news traders aren't interested and 'investors' drift away and the price stutters gently down or flatlines until the next rampfest.

then there's this utter BS from our market expert the day before the last placing was announced - the SP dropped to about 0.19p and then to below the placing (0.18p) - only 2 brief P&D have seen it approach 0.24p since:-

ocelot
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 18,826 Price: 0.24
Strong Buy
RE: Buy 04 Jul 2021 12:22
Penguins,

Imho, as an investor in UKOG, I think you can begin to relax, the worst that can happen is that you make some money because the share goes up, (the 2nd worst, is that you make less money than you could have done because you didn't reinforce when the share was cheap).

Think we may be heading for something rather different than a spike, think a fundamental re-rating may be in the wind.'

Perhaps researching the company rather than parroting chartists, Bloomberg, AD*FN posts, OP, GP , share volume etc., and riding the coattails of the pump and dumpers (and etting it wrong) might produce more accurate predictions.

then there's the bl**din obvious:-

'RE: RNS 01 Jul 2021 07:29
UKOG's share price is low because expectations are low. It will rise when expectations rise.

It is for each investor to determine their own expectations.'

Yep - but it needs more than a few realists challenging a single poster intent on continually posting unsubstantiated, wrong and meaningless posts to change expectations - except maybe the culprit's.

So what are ocelot's expectations and what ae theybased on rather than repeating others opinions, exclusively chosen for their positivity, and some claptrap about naysayers - or as has been proved - realists.

When UKOG initially mentioned hydrogen in the context of Loxley I was surprised as it seemed they were considering installing a reformation plant on the site.

'It is particularly disappointing that such a net zero compliant project, which could have been used to generate clean hydrogen fuel for the UK, has had this setback.'

But now if any gas is produced it's described as a 'feedstock' for hydrogen production - essentially selling it to a company that does reformation, as any company could with natural gas production - in reality just joining the latest 'in thing' to mention in annual reports - and the same goes for the mention of hydrogen in the gas storage project which just means spending more money, if it ever gets off the ground, making the infrastructure hydrogen 'proof'.

But generally we're waiting for news not about hydrogen or the gas storage project or even geothermal (yet another bandwagon) but progress on the three oil and gas projects which seems to be stalled.

Basur Resan was described as 'the focus of the Company’s 2021 activities'. Following the failure of Basur-3 there's uncertainty as to what happens next, though shooting more seismic seems the most likely activity after the post Basur-3 seismic acquisition showed the Basur-3 target was outside closure, and the site poorly placed to reach what was now a small closure where Basur-1 was drilled.

At Horse Hill oil production from HH-1 is a lot less than expected, at least as far as statements made to the market. The next activity expected is the conversion of HH-2z to an injector to enable disposal of currently expensively tankered off site produced water. However recently UKOG mentioned new seismic for Horse Hill in a tweet - will that now be the next activity - we await further news.

Loxley has previously been programmed after the next Basur drilling and site prep scheduled for possibly before year end - however there are many conditions in the planning permission that need addressing and approval so progress on Loxley this year now seems unlikely.

UKOG has also stated it requires further funds for these projects so without a cash raise progress on any of these will be limited.

In the absence of any news from UKOG the SP has previously slowly subsided whilst waiting for more 'news'. Unfortunately it seems that the next news won't be about progressing drilling a well this year, and perhaps not even converting HH-2z.

is the change. Quoting false AD*FN accounts, justifying something that was just plain wrong and quoting daft comments in a UKOG tweet as if it was a personal secret signal.

Of course posters are challenging positive BS more robustly.

Anyway how does ocelot know that the 'green lines' aren't extolling the virtues of UKOG - great CEO, projects likely to be drilled next year, err maybe not - ocelot claims to have most posters that aren't positive enough filtered?

'That's because I'm not at all convinced he's made an error (except in the timing, of course);'

Hilarious that a SP prediction of 0.9p ocelot endorsed ('he may well be right') that was tied to happening before the end of May 2021 was right except for the bit about end of May. It's now a year on so when is it going to happen - that chart sure predicted a long way in the future - and that was all it was based on (and probably a hope 'good news' would turn up to help). Just seems that any quote from anywhere will do for ocelot as long as it's positive and it isn't researched.

As scurrilous as the 2p / 5p next week, next month etc brigade - except now it's 0.2p / 0.5p for an equivalent rise.

With the share price not that far away from its all-time low, one would expect anyone who has for the last few years been positive about previous lows heralding a rise would realise how wrong that opinion could be which is why those with a realistic view of UKOG are challenging it.

Pboo,

luckily I can't view your account but I'm well aware of the difference - but here's another clue - HH-1 produces about 2/3 oil 1/3 water on a good day. So 1 out of 3 tankers will be water - and 3 tankers was onlya bit less than HH-1 produced in a week (in March). As UKOG chooses to not reveal current production I'd prefer not to rely on the tanker counting done by someone that said in December 2021 and January 2022 that the production would be 108bopd - but didn't mention what the water cut would be at that level of production (clue - more than March's 35.8%) and the actual December and January average was about 60bopd.

Perhaps this will help understanding why, and you've been a close associate of his:-

'Pboo
Posted in: UKOG
Posts: 5,023 Price: 0.233 No Opinion
RE: FOTH keeping quiet 05 May 2021 13:40
Cynderlad
Nothing unusual about Foth / Adrian holding back information / pictures, he thinks he is clever and can manipulate the price for a quick trade. He has been doing it for years.
He will of been tipped off by N66.'

Anyway loking forward to the August production figures - in December unfortunately, unless UKOG have a change of heart, to see how fantastic the new downhole pump is - or isn't. Last time they worked on the production completion in October 2020 they didn't halt the decline despite saying it was to optimise production - even the water cut got worse (higher).

Ibug,

Hydrocarbon detetction using AVO or AVA (Amplitude Variation with Offset or Angle) picks up reflection changes at layer boundaries so that gas in a reservoir will hopefully give more of a 'bright spot' than an oil filled reservoir at certain offsets / angles. Gas is more likely to show up as a bright spot on full offset stacks if the relative rock densities 'work'. One issue with onshore rather than offshore is the surface variation affecting the relative amplitudes and the difficulty getting the full range of offsets because of holes in coverage (buildings, no go areas for any reason).

Vintage data can be used but original field data might not be readable or kept.

I see ocelot persists in repeating the not 'Evil Knievil' prediction. Perhaps ocelot would like to say he agrees with it or not?

HH1AN2,

The cheap option, not acquiring seismic - which is relatively cheap, ends up being the expensive option if you end up poking around with the drill bit to find the oil, or gas.

But what if the new seismic destroys the prospect? What then - for large oilcos it isn't a problem which is why they would always do the cheap stuff first, and offshore it's much easier than onshore UK as there's no right of access to land which can be a problem.

But a dilemma for an AIM company where every well is hugely significant- go ahead drill on less than the best information possible, bathe in the sun while preparing for and drilling the well and take the consequences, or delay, shoot seismic with the risk of having to drop a significant activity.

Ocelot,

Perhaps I'm braver or more stupid than most but here's my thoughts on th SP going forward.

If no news arrives SP down. If news arrives that enables a pump and dump the SP will rise and then fall back - these short term rises are the only way since 2017 to make money - and folk still fall for them.

If eventually news arrives of an actual success - the HH-2z conversion helping production at HH, Basur-3s or 4, or whatever they end up drilling, producing long term at a decent rate or the same for Loxley then that would be justification for a rise that holds rather than a pump and dump.

There may well be a false dawn - UKOG over egging results as they have before producing a longer term rise but eventually the truth emerges, even if not from a UKOG RNS - BB was a classic example and enabled many to make huge amounts from believers in the £ party, more recently has UKOG mentioned average production of oil and water from HH-1 since the heady days of over 300bopd?

But apart from HH-2z conversion none of these seem likely this year - and talk of a new seismic programme at HH may well kick that into the long grass, the probable seismic programme at Basur delaying that well. Perhaps UKOG might see a theme here - drill without new seismic at your peril and decide to acquire some new seismic at Loxley?

But based on E Sadak a Basur well, in production is likely to follow a similar path as HH-1, Loxley is practically a drill and hope so that's a wait and see, and HH-2z conversion- which should be the simplest cheapest option for 2022 - may be delayed, but then needs to be tested to find out what's possible.

Not doing anything at least might delay fund raising - but how a raise might eventually be received will depend on what It's for and the discount. Ocelot prior to the last one in July 2021 assumed it would be well received because it was funding a well - at a 25% discount to the closing price the trading day before the announcement it wasn't received well and the SP rapidly dropped below the placing price.

What's ocelots short, medium and long term prognosis for the SP and on what basis - success, success, success? I remember the 0.9p by end May which never materialised but otherwise just copy and pastes of 'positive' news.

Of course nobody knows how the projects will proceed, although research helps assess the likelihood of success and probable prize rather than the only positive opinions expressed in UKOG RNS, but ultimately the SP will need true success to rise, not just plans, claims and expectations.

However the EAC code is different for waste production water (the 3YE, not the 1267).

So that tanker is probably carrying crude - but how many times has FOTH bigged up 2 tankers in a day - yet all that's happened since march 2020 is less and less oil until recently when it's stabilised at about 60bopd.

FOTH:-

'1267 HazChem Plates. (means carrying Crude Oil)'

But produced water requires the same hazard plates as shown in a tweet a while ago by N66BKP with a waste tanker with produced water displaying the same hazard plates.

'N66 BKP ™@N66BKP
·Jul 14, 2020
Taking a load of treated 1267 production water for disposal today! When production water leave any site, its still carried under ADR regulations,'

Probably why in December and January FOTH claimed production would be 108bopd when it averaged about 60bopd - total production including water was just under 100bpd - counted the waste tankers because they had hazard plates and even then over estimated!

So drilling a well to find out if there's any gas in the Portland and test it to see if it has the 'potential' to be a commercial accumulation is 'too big a project'.

Ocelot, until the well is drilled the only project is drilling the well, This is why Xodus wouldn't calculate in place volumes or potential recoverable resources in the 2018 CPR, and presumably why they would only calculate remaining in a study in 2020:-

'more data is required to properly estimate the in place volumes. Recoverable volumes were not estimated at this time due to the inherent uncertainties. Xodus believes that a further modern appraisal well and extended test is required to narrow the current uncertainties and enable a better estimation of potential recoverable resources to be undertaken.'

Until the well is drilled all those wonderful potentially recoverable resources are meaningless - the question is what a potential farminee would make of it?

As for 'now for July' - I notice that UKOG doesn't detail what that could mean - nearly half way through and they mentioned a workover of HH-1 (stopping speculation from certain quarters the HH-2z repurposing had begun) replacing the downhole pump and rods - though still avoiding the awkward subject of what oil and water production is averaging.

But this is what was so great in June:-

'JUMPING FOR JOY IN JUNE: The govt backs our Portland Port energy project … The govt backs our gas appraisal project at Loxley … PLUS encouraging oil seep in Turkey and new seismic plan at Horse Hill'

Not sure jumping for joy exactly describes that mixed bag of news.

Kwawi Kwartang 'warmly welcoming' something is not government backing of any substance.

Winning an appeal is not quite the same as the government backing Loxley either unless they're implying the SoS came to a supposedly legal decision based on backing them.

The oil seep would be encouraging in an unexplored basin but near to a well that produced 500 barrels that UKOG keep mentioning (though forgetting the subsequent water production stopping the test) it's unimportant.

As for the new seismic plan at HH - what new seismic plan?

Perhaps if they had mentioned details of it in June we'd all be jumping for joy, though probably not as are they about to press the pause button on doing anything at Horse Hill.

Like Basur has UKOG realised that they need to have a better idea of the subsurface before drilling. Thouth it might have been an idea to acquire the obligation seismic before drilling HH-2z which ended up down dip from HH-1 rather than updip as prognosis.

Can someone please ask ocelot if he admits there are 2 accounts using the name Simon Cawkwell and has he actually looked at both?

It is pretty clear one is from the infamous 'shorter' as it has many posts about Globo who he famously had a spat with in 2013 - the other account which has an underscore and is the one ocelot keeps referring to has few posts and only the 2 posted on 17 June copied Evil Kneivil's style.

Unfortunately ocelot doesn't research anything that appears positive just in case it turns out it isn't as positive as it looks.

I think that comes under this bit of my post:- 'Believing anything said until it actually happens - and to the extent they (in this case UKOG) 'expect' - is unwise.'

But of course there's opportunities to make money on news / plans / expectations before well results or any project coupled with P&Ds - even the company indulged in over egging BB - a jar with oil, 'bleeding' core, even installing a 'production completion' in the well before any tests - which then had to be removed.

There was also SCDM's involvement adding to shares already owned from 'selling' the BB licence to UKOG.

These events got the SP to 11p - though with a lot less shares in circulation - whether it will happen again.............depends on if UKOG make similar claims and whether they will be believed to the extent they were in 2017.

Fitzy,

'we have what the country needs on our doorstep'

I presume you mean the offshore where proper oil companies (in the main) explore and find significant oil and gas resources, not chancers who over promise and under deliver. Believing anything said until it actually happens - and to the extent they (in this case UKOG) 'expect' - is unwise.

as for:- 'this should be 10 x + what it is now…'

Onshore fields apart from Wytch Farm are small and any 'discovery' unlikely to make any impact on UK domestic needs. UKOG themselves valued HH-1, their only operated producing well, at less than £4mm (June 30 - Interim:- The Directors determined that the net present value of the HH-1 well was £3.63 million) - all UKOG O&G E&P projects require a well that even UKOG state in the AGM Circular they need to raise money to proceed:-

'In order to deliver the Company’s stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its studies and planning application for the Portland Energy-Hub, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence, conversion of HH-2z into a water re-injector, to develop its other UK onshore assets including Loxley should planning consent be granted and for the pursuit and evaluation of further international petroleum and UK renewable opportunities'

Is one reason for the failure to mention drilling more wells at HH because the value of HH-1 is less than the cost of drilling a well at HH.

HH1AN2,

Perhaps this would help:-

Crane returns to HH less than a week after replacing the downhole pump and pump rods.