Member Info for Penguins

right......

Let's see what happens next

The other day I expected the SP to drop to nearer the placing price.

Like it's gammon for lunch.....

Here comes the personalattacks as usual quack quack! :)

I don't m'attack' I explain where certain posters are going wrong

Happened to your £10,000 buy ar 0.094p?

Replying in a different thread everymtime now loooooool has arrived

That should be 'Price controls that would guarantee companies cutting development'

'We want cheap independent energy'

Explain how that works? Price controls that would guarantee no companies cutting development or maybe nationalise all the fields?

Otherwise it's global prices for global Britain. What volume of gas produced in the UK would make any significant difference to global prices, and more importantly when Is that even likely?

It's a good idea to find out if fracking will work (it doesn't work everywhere) but it's wrong to claim it will bring 'cheap gas' if it works without explaining how, and when.

Whilst energy security is also a good idea that could only be guaranteed by controls on where the gas could be sold.

I suspect those on these boards that post about fracking don't want cheap gas anyway, there's certainly one who likes to rejoice any price rice. As a relatively expensive production method the last thing any company (and its shareholders) that fracked would want is low prices.

'It is part of the oil and gas industry to make long-term investments without knowing where the price of oil and gas will be when those investments are completed'

Indeed, but that's why some posters actually look at the projects and assess how reasonable UKOG's public assessments of them are - you know the 'naysayers' who have been so lucky in the past, distant as well as recent, to get it right but not in hindsight - in predicting what might go wrong that UKOG for some reason didn't mention.

It might just be that it isn't the positive bits of UKOG RNS or interviews, gas price, oil price, chartists proclamations, what Bloomberg say or even the volume of shares traded or that the SP is at an all term low.

I guess what ocelot thinks, on P&D days with huge turnover of shares, are the gamblers selling to long investors who are buying for the long term, is really one lot of gamblers who hope they got it right selling to another lot that hope they haven't got it wrong.

Apart from ocelot I haven't seen any evidence of any long term holders on this board (look at the price predictio list) apart from those trapped by believing, or its just not worth selling them

'I haven't listened to the interview - wonder what he said about Basur-3 and Resan.'

But this is what was said in the RNS that day:-

'As per the Company's 15 January 2021 announcement, the board views the Licence's forthcoming 2021 appraisal drilling programme to present a compelling and potentially transformational growth opportunity for the Company'

Presumably that was also in SS's view. Words are cheap especially caveated with 'in my view', potentially etc.

'If Loxley was financially viable on 20/01/21 with the price of gas at 57.77p, it will still be financially viable today with the price of gas at 371p.'

If - Yep, how much gas did they sell today though. It's starting to sound like the ANGSt board.

I haven't listened to the interview - wonder what he said about Basur-3 and Resan.

'in my view, (is) perhaps one of the UK onshore's most valuable undeveloped assets'

You have to realise that it's an opinion, not a fact - in the view of someone who's view has been decidedly dodgy previously.

If it were a fact UKOG, never knowingly pessimistic, would not have put a Probability of Success of 60 to 70%.

'If UKOG can persuade the SoS of the encouraging prospects of its Loxley project'

What persuasion - I think you presume too much that the SoS did anything but accept what UKOG told 'him', and it was a legel decision that the planning application should not have been rejected. It's a very different proposition to persuading experts in another company who will be expected to pay at least their share of the appraisal well.

Overlooked by the market? You know this? Perhaps they realise that every UKOG project has been preceeded by over optimistic projections, that any sales gas will be many years away and gas prices, like oil, can rise and fall.

If anyone is considering buying shares on Monday based on that statement from early 2021 rather then to sell on the first P&D that comes along, firstly I would be surprised, but just in case have a look at the results of every well UKOG has been involved in vs what was said before drilling and during drilling and testing.

ocelot,

'As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore'

Well it's yet to be proved that the Godley Bridge discovery is even connected to Loxley - even UKOG's mapping shows it's fairly tenuous.

So it's just in UKOG's opinion it's already been drilled and tested by GB-1. But everything else in that statement is predicated on a success that even the ever optimistic UKOG say is only 60 to 70% likely to happen - but why be suspicious of a company that has serially exaggerated likely outcomes for every project so far - and can't even get the previous day's closing price for the placing right.

Before rejoicing Loxley needs to be successful (and not just shows or an initial test). Even then it won't be possible to predict what the production leve,l will be or when Loxley might have sales gas - many many years if the time to sales gas for the already developed but stranded Saltfleetby Field is anything to go by. Any gas price you care to quote now is irrelevant

Nevertheless like previous projects the 'information' put out by UKOG will be the basis for P&Ds as it has previously - from posters like ocelot who refuse to acknowledge the downsides. The current SP indicates the gulf between UKOG's expectation and execution.

ocelot,

'As the second largest gas accumulation drilled and tested in the UK onshore'

Well it's yet to be proved that the Godley Bridge discovery is even connected to Loxley - even UKOG's mapping shows it's fairly tenuous.

So it's just in UKOG's opinion it's already been drilled and tested by GB-1. But everything else in that statement is predicated on a success that even the ever optimistic UKOG say is only 60 to 70% likely to happen - but why be suspicious of a company that has serially exaggerated likely outcomes for every project so far - and can't even get the previous day's closing price for the placing right.

Before rejoicing Loxley needs to be successful (and not just shows or an initial test). Even then it won't be possible to predict what the production leve,l will be or when Loxley might have sales gas - many many years if the time to sales gas for the already developed but stranded Saltfleetby Field is anything to go by. Any gas price you care to quote now is irrelevant

Nevertheless like previous projects the 'information' put out by UKOG will be the basis for P&Ds as it has previously - from posters like ocelot who refuse to acknowledge the downsides. The current SP indicates the gulf between UKOG's expectation and execution.

Given the appetite for shares at over the placing price UKOG seem to have missed a trick by not launching an open offer - maybe the placees realised they might have difficulty flogging theirs for a profit and asked UKOG not to?

that in ocelot's list that

Honest
Sensible
Realistic
Right
Accurate
Researched
Knowledgeable
Analysing
Rebutting

Didn't appear as these seem to be the things ocelot doesn't like. Wonder why - of course most posters that ocelot considers 'naysayers are filtered so 'no idea'?

Skwizz - you forgot 'wrong', 'monotonous' and 'gullible'.

Ibug,

Thanks,

Looks like something to look at in the evening..........

That's real research - not guess the price next week etc. - though your 2019 guess was pretty good - not many of that lot of (mostly) rampers left here - though I see stockraiser coming in 14th place and Tymers only in 10th. I suspect the heavy hitters thought anything below 3 or 4p was deramping as HH-2z was expected to have tested by the end of year - it did but not as expected.

Seadoc certainly put his money where his mouth was with a CFD. Thing was his price target was with success - which upset those that thought (and still think) that 1) initial production rates matter; 2) but production rates don't as production doesn't decline even when the company says it will; 3) that everything happens as RNS'd and 4) todays price times a rule of thmb recovery times the oil (or gas) in place is meaningless when the wells not drilled - and don't mention OPEX, Tax, overheads and mad schemes to spend anything left over.........

BTW where's an open offer at 0.0875p, and when will UKOG release revised OIP at Basur based on the new mapping, and the same for HH. It's a matter of Kingdom (the interpretation software) spitting out a GRV and then applying a few parameters for a deterministic number - less than an hours work assuming they know the basics. Unfortunately for HH they'll probably calculate for th whole of the Portland rather than the oil in the 'sweet spot' which seems to be where most of the oil is coming from (perforating the whole of the Portland again in 2020 made no difference.

Time for lunch.

Ocelot,

Maybe it was deliberately fooling the market, lulling investors into a false sense of security - but absolutely true as it was before mid Q4.

If it wasn't expected a week before perhaps the cashcall for the Basur seismic came in a lot earlier than expected, maybe AME was worried .that UKOG might run out of cash?

or there's a problem with HH that needed (expensive) work done urgently.

or maybe they realise that the SP is likely to drop further and it will be a long time before there's any good news.

I'm not sure that there's a 'positive' reason for a 'surprise' raising - even fooling the market isn't a brilliant idea. Can't wait for ocelot's positive take though.

There was also the strange message on the website of a new corporate presentation (needed perhaps for a fundraise?) that never appeared in early July. What might have been in that presentation?

and the bizarre tweet on 6 July starting 'JUMPING FOR JOY IN JUNE:' ending 'And now for July!' - and filled with an invention of government support and the encouraging oil seep in a area adjacent to a well which briefly tested oil.

Was the 'now for July' a teaser for the unreleased presentation - what was in it?

ocelot,

'Adrian has tweeted as follows 45 mins ago: like I said there has been a lot of work recently at #Horsehill.'

unfortunately it's almost always non-news but is spending cash.

There have been 2 well interventions (rather than surface works) we know about since Portland production began at HH.

the first was optimising production by reperforating the Portland interval, putting the downhole pump deeper and a new production completion in October / November 2020. Lots of excitement on twitter and here - 300bopd predicted by some following the works.
Average Production across that workover:-
August 2020 - 128 bopd
September 93 bopd,
October 47bopd, works in progress
November 101 bopd,
December 81 bopd

So that didn't work.

The recent work in July replaced the downhole pump - we won't know whether that's made any difference to production (probably not) until August's production is published by the NSTA in December.

otherwise a new higher capacity (1000bopd) and more efficient linear rod pump was installed in May 2020 soon after production started in March, but that didn't make any difference but got some posters and tweeters very excited.

and there were also surface works last August / September that Adrian tried to infer were to do with HH-2z but were for the 'first tranche of permanent facility equipment required under the Health and Safety Executive's Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH) regulations'.

Maybe this work with a crane is the second tranche?

Before the OGA published the HH production figures Adrian was claiming that production had improved in December 2020 and January 2021 (108bopd) it hadn't - was about 60bopd.

Adrian usually has no idea what's going on and is prone to claiming it's something it isn't.

Not sure that SCDM would have been taken in by the billion barrel claim - more likely they saw the opportunity to up the value of the shares they already owned by reinforcing the buying frenzy on the hype.

Having effectively sold 50% of the Broadford Bridge licence to UKOG through their subsidiary Celtique (Magellan sold their 50% share as well - but were in financial difficulties and had little option - and handed over a lot of their shares to Celtique) they already had a substantial holding of UKOG shares and they would definitely have had their own technical opinion, and probably more researched, of the chances of success of a Kimmeridge test. The site wasn't chosen to be a Kimmeridge test.

Certainly with their knowledge they would be better placed to form an opinion regarding any RNS put out by UKOG while drilling and testing was taking place - knowing the difference between BS and hard facts.