Member Info for Penguins

Ocelot,

perhaps you should mention in any post about gas prices that even UKOG (never knowingly pessimistic) put a CoS of 60% to 70% for Loxley, and if it is successful when you think that UKOG will realistically have any sales gas.

As for a 'pre planned' farmout programme - is there any other sort? When do you think an announcement is likely about a confirmed farminee (rather than we're talking to 'potential' farminees) - which is starting to look like the only way that Loxley will be drilled at all.

Next up in the ocelot mini ramp; the Simon - underscore - Cawkwell price prediction unless barchart has improved?

Ocelot,

Has UKOG forgotten that they have already identified a surface expression of an anticline to the south west of Basur (UKOG presentation 20 Jan 2021 slide 13) so it wouldn't surprise me if they interpreted the seismic to fit the surface expression so they can RNS - Eureka field trip successful, Lead B has a surface expression.

Whilst they can wander round the licence area looking for potential sites aren't they shooting seismic to decide whether these 2 leads hold up with more seismic?

More RNS filling 'sounds positive-ish BS to feed to the naive that don't think about, or research, what they are being fed.

PS don't think the the Basur surface expression seems to have helped much either, nice well site though - maybe turn it into a sightseeing car park?

'In fact off the top of my head the only project they have not partnered with is Broadford Bridge?'

As operator there are now no equity partners in the HH licences as HHDL is in their control and no partner in the BB/Loxley licence.

They've bought out one of the partners over the years to gain entry in to various licences and relinquished them all except for the minority interests in Avington and Hornedean (5 and 10 percent respectively) - they also 'bought' the BB / Loxley licence. They farmed in to Turkey.

It certainly doesn't seem they've been very successful either with or without partners.

The reality is that farming out Loxley is just the start - saving some drilling cost is very nice but what UKOG need is success Loxley has a lot of risk for a so called appraisal, Turkey is looking less likely as a saviour of the company, HH might be delayed for more seismic and UKOG hardly mention it - and as well as risk Loxley has loads of conditions to get through planning - and of course Waverley are trying to contest the Loxley appeal result. Portland storage if it happens there won't be any activity for years. Geothermal and the US have gone quiet - though worryingly maybe a desperate attempt at near term 'activity' could be a hurried investment in the US.

So when's real activity going to happen that might be significant - rather than opportunities for pumps on 'news' followed by inactivity when the SP drops.

Hardly co-venturing with major activity - except in Turkey where they paid 100% of an unsuccessful well - and appear to have disagreed with AME's decisions.

Let's hope IGas farm in to Loxley eh.

BTW how many times have you and ocelot mentioned the farm out 'programme' we get it - 'pre planned farm out programme' is happening 'now'. But no one knows when it might be consummated and depending on how quickly it happens there's still lots to do before drilling.

...... it's a great time to buy = I have just bought in so will post any old BS this weekend as I am now desperate to sell asap, preferably at a profit - it'll look pretty stupid ramping on twitter 4 days after sl***ing UKOG off......help!!!!!

eg:-
'Adrian@davethedrill1
Jul 20
#ukog won't be doing any work this year but SS and the boys are going to need cash for their wages imo.'

and:-
'#UKOG #Horsehill put on the back burner. Not even a mentioned . Yet SS bought out all those partners for a fortune and all permissions are in place for new wells etc!
Why did he bother?
POO will be back to $40 before these idiots get round to a water injection well imo.
Adrian'

Ocelot,

Did UKOG say how many shares were cast at the last AGM, perhaps if they have someone could enlighten us what percent of the total were voted. What does the 86% for Sanderson's re election represent - you mocked 'rodders' vote sanderson out campaign that doesn't benefit from having the ability to contact the shareholders like UKOG can for an AGM yet got something over 6% of shares pledged - which I believe was a higher percent than voted at the 2021 AGM.

You pointed out at the time that voting against SS really needed a plan for replacement which obviously wouldn't be in place at the AGM so voting against SS and all the other resolutions could probably cause a collapse in the SP, so it's surprising what percentage did - though it isn't surprising if low numbers vote at UKOG AGMs given the huge 'churn' of shares during P&D you like to highlight seems to suggest the overwhelming number of shares are held by traders passing the parcel.

Adrian,

You have before, under another disguise, quoted the DoD article where they quote IGas identifying one of two sites in S England for hydrogen production. Presumably you are again hoping anyone reading might suppose the other site was Godley Bridge.

At that time I replied that IGas had announced the other site as Bletchingly. Instead of recycling old news why not go to the IGas web site and search 'hydrogen' - this is what I found:-

........an IGas presentation to - 2nd UK CCUS Hydrogen Decarbonisation Summit, held on 2nd September 2021. This from slide 6:-

Under the heading 'Hydrogen, Production from existing sites'

They state:-
'Two existing sites identified in the South East
• Albury and Bletchingley'

Anyway glad to help just in case you thought the second site was Godley Bridge - although the next article on DoD about IGas on 12 July 2021 is titled:- 'IGas names second hydrogen site in Surrey

PS You have posted many any times that you think IGas might farm in to Loxley. It may happen it may not, it won't make any difference to the CoS but might give a trader like yourself a chance to dump those shares you bought assuming a P&D happens on the news. You can then return to sl***ing off UKOG.

Your main argument seems to be IGas abandoned the proposal to drill further wells in their licence because of the problems with planning - yet it seems more likely due to the drop in oil and gas prices in 2020 - the statement in the 2021 Annual Report was:-

'Work on other projects, to appraise the potential that exists in our prospective resources such as the prospect at Godley Bridge in the South-east, will ramp-up again once there is more certainty in energy prices.'

Someone who gets up early on a Sunday to post what is only their opinion incessantly (not backed up by any statement from IGas or UKOG) to flood a board where he is banned, presumably not to discuss but suppress any other opinion, really does need help, probably financial judging by the desperation displayed.

You just keep saying no one will discuss Loxley with you or not mention it - when they have. But don't expect a response to every copy and paste - plus silly comment.

Not sure there's anything but a pre planned farm-out programme however strange a way of putting it that is - what's the alternative a surprise farm out?

I suppose it means they've got the data room ready - let's hope there's lots of potentially interested visitors -

Fitzy,

no the bit that ws 'confusing' was the assertion that UKOG had 'found' the 'gold' - as in 'find the gold'.

What find are you referring to?

I realise ocecelot doesn't do 'technical' research - if he did he would realise that most of this excerpt is BS:-

'To help progress Basur towards drilling, members of UKOG's technical team plan to spend next week in the field, scouting a potential new Basur-4 location, tying Basur seismic work into surface geology and investigating whether Prospect B has any surface geological expression that can help define its extent.'

Firstly 'a site' won't reach both B-4 possibles - and it would besensible to wait as niether might make it to a drillable target given the paucity of current data - the new lines confirming niether exists - anyway Lead B is mostly out of the licence as mapped. .

As for a surface expression maybe they could save the airfares and go back to the presentation last year (20 Jan 2020 slide 13) - as pointed out by Ibug - which clearly shows as a yellow 'blob' to the SW of Basur identified as a 'Prospective geological feature (surface anticline)'- although it wasn't on some of the more recent maps.

Given it has taken nearly a year from Basur-3 failure to the realisation they need more seismic, when the seismic that decision is based on was planned to start in August 2021 (it didn't):- 'As the joint venture's new seismic acquisition is scheduled to commence in August 2021'. How long will it be before a Basur-4 target is decided, let alone a site then prepared and then the well drilled? At least this time as AME will have to pay their way they might go for a cheap slim hole, minimal site needed for a 'finder' well rather than the gold plated site and big drilling rig used for Basur-3.

The problem isn't really the time taken - just that it's aften multiple times UKOGs expectations - and AIM investors generally, apart from those trapped and ocelot, are short term trading pi -

Juleo,

surely it's the patient long term investors that have been mugged, there was a guy on twitter that keeps boasting about his trades - ramping when he has shares, deramping once he's sold, mocking those he's sold to - it's the traders that make money, but most don't boast. We'll see how quickly when (or if) UKOG can farm out Loxley, and to whom. If I were Igas I'd wait and see what the result was - a no cost alternative. Surely if Igas have been waiting in the wings UKOG might have mentioned there was already interest in the farm out - it's only bad news UKOG delays mentioning.

....and nobody needs to guess what the SP will do on almost any passably good news - there'll be a P&D, UKOG might do a placing - but regardless of whether there's a placing or not the SP will drop becasue there's nothing potentially cash generative happening (apart from raises) for a long time - and apat from ocelot most of the 'enthusiastic' posters will disappear.

Ocelot,

I would be surprised if UKOG got a full carry but it's not impossible. Of course if the well was as risk free as some posters seem to believe, the only issue being whether, like UKOG, you calculate a value based on the mid or high case recovery, then selling off part of the field for the cost of a well is not such a good thing. But of course it isn't guaranteed and I've posted for some time that not having a partner to not only share costs but to also have a view on the operators plans was not as smart as UKOG made out.

A full carry could save UKOG having to raise for Loxley (though a cost cap could still mean some exposure) but there is still 50% of Basur-4 to pay for, assuming one of the 2 leads matures into a prospect when the seismic is shot and that also needs to be paid for. Then there's HH where there's quite an overhang of work - wells, repurposing HH-2z and now a mention of shooting new seismic.

Assuming the farm in to Loxley is to the whole licence, as would be normal, the farninee would also be considering whether a further well at BB was likely (and they agreed) as they would be liable for their share of abandonment and site restoration costs as a licencee.

Ocelot,

If any farminee takes into account the front month gas price (during a crisis) or speculative prices for small volumes of gas years away then they shouldn't be negotiating.

The first consideration will be the risk and as this is a subjective consideration it almost certainly won't align with UKOG's 60 to 70% COS. They will probably work the data themselves or take a very critical look at the sellers work.

They will calculate a risked NPV taking into account the upfront costs of exploration appraisal and development including connecting to the grid, risked NPV needs to very positive - they'll want a decent rate of return on the project and project drag (permissions, build delays) can severely impact the valuation. They will also use a conservative price forecast not dependant on the prices ocelot reads out here.

Crikey, ocelot expects the Loxley farm out to be completed, well drilled and producing sales gas in August........ this year. Perhaps he should quote some time lines from a multi well discovered but moth balled field being operated by ANGS that suggest sales gas will be years away even if the first well and further appraisal wells are successful.

I hope that any farminees don't take too much notice of what UKOG claimed in July 2020 about Turkey now we know the results of the first welll:-

'In terms of the likelihood of success, the Company believes the Licence's discovered and "missed pay" opportunities are as good as, if not better than its similar Loxley and Arreton appraisal projects in the UK'.

Ocelot,

It's no surprise that a company might aspire to get a full carry - AME did for a well in the wrong place. But UKOG alternatively hope for part of the costs to be carried.

You rely a lot on the word 'would' but it might not happen at all. UKOG have made many claims that would have resulted in a very different SP today that haven't happened.

Maybe UKOG will farm out Loxley, maybe not - the downside for those that post as if Loxley is certain to be a success is that if it is successful UKOG would lose some of the equity in the field for a pittance vs their valuations - for instance ocelot made a valuation in mid June of up to £1 billion. If UKOG can't get a full carry it would surely be a surprise if that was a believable valuation - which of course it isn't.

Odd they are going to see if there's a surface expression of Lead B, as Ibug pointed out a presentation last year had a surface expression anticline marked on it to the south east of Basur maybe they forgot?

As for sites for B-4 maybe wait for the new seismic?

Ocelot

It's probably best you ignore history as you've found many things said by UKOG 'promising'.

They've seen a couple of leads that require more data because their target updip of Basur-1 wasn't there and the new seismic confirmed it was a fantasy. Lo and nehold all is not lost necause of a couple pf leadd. This time they are at least shooting some seismic to see if the leads are valid.

I see that UKOG have submitted an application to discharge condition 19 of the planning permission passed in 2019 for HH. Maybe that's what's been delaying HH-2z as the 2019 permission referred to a water injection well - without looking I suspect the previous permission for HH-1z and HH-2 didn't. Condition 19 is about site construction of the extended site and surface water monitoring. The text explains these two elements are independent of each other - presumably because the extended site isn't required (now or ever?) but the monitoring is.

Ibug,

'When you have no confidence what is below the ground you get someone else to pay for it'

AME's farm out to UKOG illustrating exactly that. Let's hope UKOG can find a similarly naive company to farm into Loxley. As for HH perhaps the biggest red flag was what appeared to be relatively small payments for HHDL equity in the Gatwick Gusher when pi were being fed plans for multiple wells on multiple sites worth 100's of millions of pounds. These oint owners of HHDL had all the data not the bits UKOG wanted pi to see.

Now that in Turkey UKOG won't be paying 100% will AME be more circumspect about future work.

'The Portland energy storage project is certainly ambitious and enterprising of them.'

Will any company trust them to manage a billion pound project when they have difficulty progressing HH.

They are already committed to £900,000 expenditure for the Portland lease for 4 years and will perform detailed engineering and commercial studies, and submit a detailed planning application during the 4 years.

Rather than unicorn projects that might string along investors for a few years (like Weald Kimmeridge, transformational Turkey) it would be nice to know what UKOGs plans are for the only project they operate that generates any profit - though we know it doesn't cover UKOG's outgoings - so why announce a seimic survey at HH on twitter. Also SS has stated in an interview, rather than RNS, that outgoings will be limited in the first 2 years (on top of £450,000 for 2 years of the lease) - is that because they'll not be doing much while they hope one of the other projects finds something and it can be quietly dropped - otherwise, if they fail, maybe there's another 2 years of salaries justified.

As for the Secretary of State I doubt Kwasi Kwartang knows anything about the project apart from what SS put in his letter. What do you expect him to say in response - 'I warmly welcome UKOG’project proposal.' is a long way off support of the project and obviously UKOG at the time weren't aware, or at least not mentioning the Exxon plans.

If UKOG manage to farm out Loxley the biggest positive will (hopefully) be having a partner constraining any reckless decision making that has been possible when there's nobody questioning decisions; eg installing a production completion before any tests at BB. It will be interesting to see if UKOG can farm out, what the deal is and whether they insist on better definition of the structure before drilling.

SS might consider it a nuisance but a bit of oversight helps - AME called a pause to drilling to shoot more seismic when UKOG wanted to drill a highly deviated well to Basur-1 which the new seismic shows as tiny and could have been almost impossible to drill.

Ocelot,

if UKOG actually got on and did anything rather than kick the can down the road into the far distant long grass then they would have needed to raise cash earier - or maybe not as they are suggesting up to10/11 months of 2022 salaries that could have been used to progress a project.

Yes they've waited for permissions for UK projects (though applications are often months later than suggested or the need should have been realised) but Basur-3 got stuck, and was obviously in the wrong place, a year ago - seismic meant to be started soon after but ended up at the end of the year - and the findings of phase 1 now mean phase 2 is needed.

No mention of HH-2z but the previouly unmentioned seismic (except as obligation work programme not done) mentioned in a tweet but not even mentioned in this update (why not?) may mean further delay to the repurposing of that well.

So more or less guaranteed nothing but words descrbing all the great things that might happen until the cash raise.

Ocelot,

now might mean they have a farm-out brochure ready, would sounds like a aspiration, if they only get an offer without any uplift will they refuse? If they are currently in negotiations obviously - 'costs would be either fully or part carried by any farminee' - the article you have linked misunderstands the way oil companies fam out equity in a licence to help get the bills paid, but retain operatorship.

We shall see, there's still a lot of paperwork to be done and perhaps a farminee may want more seismic shot, upholes to better understand the near surface and remapping.