Member Info for Pelle

Hello Ajes and E, Taking consider your info, I see debt reduction approx 60 million first 4 months. And approx 300 million debt reduction following 8 months. Let’s see how they update us in May

Hello E,

Thanks for explaining:-)
I know capex still 275 million.
Just that my model dont have any column for trade payables yet.
So your adjusting FCF for debt reduction down with 100 million from 420 to 320 due to the trade payables.

Its what I wanted to understand.

Hedging...I certainly hope losses are smaller this year then last year.
Dont see how you already can project some losses full year 2019.
If Q1 was gains and thats basically half of the hedging volume spend already there.

I am looking forward to next year with clean sheet
Mecuria deal, pay back April now.
Magnus 25% FCF should go to Enq somewhere end summer this year.
Reduce these trade payables this year
And next year reduce capex to 100-150 million.

Its exciting everyday beeing a heavy shareholder in Enq:-)

Thanks Ajes! So I will compensate my model with 325 million capex

Hi Romaron, Good point with Moodys risk score point. Interesting get a number on it. Looking forward to a new Moodys update like the one in November

Nil cost options, exercisable until 2026/27

Yeah, they get awarded bit too much shares in my opinion. Its based on several kpi’s like debt reduction and growth. If remember correct these kpi targets are in Magnus prospect. Can understand why they preferred push down debt and delay supplier invoices

Hi Jan, Yes, I agree. And once market see debt reduction coming through. And in autumn we should have continued build a hedge portfolio into 2020. Then market will start to value in next year FCF also. And risk premium will go down At some point valuation will raise quickly once we treated as a more safe bet.

Hello Ajex

One more question to experts:-)

Should the " Trade and other payables" be 483,8 million be reduced with 100 million due to the deferred capex?
So then we end up at FCF for debt reduction: 367 million ?

Cash capital expenditures expected to be approximately $275 million; includes a combined total of approximately
$100 million related to deferred payments from prior periods and phasing of spend from 2018, mainly DC4

Hello Ajex

Yes, thats how I also calculate it and result very close to mine.
But if I understand correct now, all the 475 million cant go to debt reduction.
Because on balance sheet "Trade and other payables" 483,8 million
But there also "Trade and other receivables" 275,8 million

Should FCF for debt reduction then be ? 475 - ( 483,8-275,8) = 267 million

Lets see if some expert can help:-)

Hi E,

Yes, I trust you and Hitman and others on this about the accrued expenses.
Question is how should a model it to get FCF for debt reduction?
I have the capex 275 million, should I reserv 100 million more for these accrued expenses?
Or what amount should I count? And is it possible have any idea if they equally spread over the quarters or half years?

Hi E, Its a learing for me and not only in Enq. Its easy come in too early in turnaround shares. And once they turnaround they will also go much higher and longer period then one could imagine. I think we will see much more then 30p this year at some point. Given the massive swings it’s been last years.

Hi Whiteace

I have a rather large longterm holding here that I build up over the last 4 years something.
Taken my share in each two cash raising offers.
Now I am maybe 20% down and all in too when it comes to shares.
I agree with you that that this been terrible longterm hold during this time, but excelent for trading during this time.

I think this will change for future and this must be a great holding over next 3 years if we have decent oil prices above lets say 65.
Each day ticking down like this with prod at 70k+ and oil at 70 usd+ we are getting closer to a big lift.
I also hold a strong believe in AB's about 10 million extra shares he bought during the last months, its a strong signal for me.

Your right, its foolish for us try trade now.
Maybe if its reach 40-50p could sell 20-30% holding and see where it goes after 3-6 months or so.
Have a nice trip, I just flew back from Nice today to Sweden.
It was rainy last two days there but guess you dont care spending time inside casino:-)

Hello

I sometimes look around this site and some of the Bumi links.

It seems they got a loan and can restruct business and maybe can sell some assets.
Just speculating...
If there discussions regarding a potential sale of AK back to Enq, it could be the reason SP wont lift.
Some months ago it was same for PMO, they were hold back due to romours of cash raising and bidding on other fields.
This could also be good longterm but shortterm puts some preassure and insecurity

Just a thought...

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/507685

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5210.jsp

The loan would give Bumi Armada breathing room to sell assets and restructure its business in a bid to return to profitability, one of the people said. The company is expected to sign the loan agreement with lenders as soon as the next few weeks, the people said.

Tax is the least thing we need to think about, atleats for next 5-7 years

Hi E

Good point with DC4 flush period!
It they done 45k now last month and 22-24k before with only one train.
It look like we could atleast stable on around 40k something.
Thats good enough for me, before we talked about that as almost dream scenario after all truobles last year.

Hi KO, 100 usd feels more likely then 50. Opec will do everything to prevent a repeat of free falling oil prices like with had last winter.

Evening E, I can imagine you have nice weather too:-) Time for me return north soon. With your Q1 data and 70/70 rest of year my model says FCF 460 million. So it’s close. Then is question if it should be reduced with approx 100 million more for the trade accounts payable that Hitman talks about. So 360 million for debt reduction then. Not bad and next year looks much better hopefully. Will be interesting day tomorrow Good luck!

Afternoon E, I just back from nice lunch in cap Antibes. Decided to treat my parents. The way production and oil price developed last months is dream scenario. 70k and 70 oil seems fair base case for this year now in my opinion. Oil might even go into 80-90 range in 1-2 months time so should build the hedging portfolio slowly.

Hello E, What FCF do you get this year with oil average 70 and prod 70k?

Good morning, Yeah it must be bargain of life time here, I get on some rough calculations FCF around 500 million this year and that’s even after reserving 100 million for these trade accounts payable. And 100 million to BP. Next year I would estimate 700 million FCF with reduced capex and trade accounts payable. So end next year debt could be down to 600 million with EBITDA of 1 billion. They said they wanted to operate with a debt ratio 1-2. So end next year we then over capitalised with 400-1400 million Thoughts?