Member Info for Pelle

Hi KO, You think he will prepare to sell Enq in 3-5 years? I tend more to think he will collect back his investment in dividend over next 5-10 years Anyway he is still only 54 and could sit as chairman instead also

It’s around 10 million shares including 5 million at rump placing after RI he bought. He must think these levels just simply a bargain he can’t resist. For his average I guess it doesn’t influence much

Hi Squif, If I remember correct it was mention 3 week stop for Magnus. I hope we can double share price over 4-6 months. Maybe we need wait until May update to start that trend. Or if oil continue up now next weeks we might start trend earlier. Enquest share price and movements is a mystery so we will see

Hi Squif Its more like certain months at 80k until they stop Magnus for maintenance sometime in Q2. Kraken is doing about 14k net better then jan/feb now. And then was prod 67,7k

Hi Greg, I see approx 80k production when all is running like now Kraken 30k net Magnus 20k Others 30k For Jan - April I get average around 70-72k Need to count with Magnus maintenance stop 3 weeks in q2 and Kraken in September. I think there good chances average above 70k full year

Hi L3

We will see what happens, seems AB value it to more then the shareprice targets.
Situation is very comfortable now with both prod and oil prices compared to early in the year.
So its just to hold tight in the shares for 2-3 years

Hi E

Yes, feels they more proactive now adding smaller portions, it gives stability next 6 months or so with is good.
Hope they can do the bigger punch on hedging also during Spring/summer this year if oil spikes to 75-80.
Extend the horizon 12 months or something and maybe 50% volume.
Use Swaps to get the highest floor

Have you calculated any estimate for realised oil price including hedge so far this year? or H1

Hi L3

I think in this case we are few early viewers of Krakens improvements.
It was some reaction in shareprice yday on the tanker news, but I wunder if the big money follow it?
Next operational update end May will be a breakthrough, average prod total around 70-72k Jan-April.
Kraken avarage March/April close to 40k.

Is it possible now with these improvements that Cairn write up the value again?

Feel confortable with AB increasing holding at these levels and oil price at these levels.
It will generate a lot money sooner or later

Hi KO, Agree, with Kraken fixed, Magnus exceeding prod FC and oil at these levels. I would not be surprised if we have 30-40p by summer.

Therapist, yeah weather here been sunny but cold the last week. Seems you enjoy Lund, it’s nice city. There many nice places to visit in south of Sweden if you go on country side also. Depending what you like. Tomorrow I am heading to bridge also and going to south France

Hi Romaron, In my opinion we still unloved because of the big debt. And every year last year 2 years the big debt reduction been postponed. I followed numbers at marketscreener over the last years. Its a risk having this big debt, need 2-3 good years now to reduce it. If oil price will be bad 30-50 usd over next 2-3 years we might never be able reduce the debt enough at our current peak production years. Its my opinion. You will be safe from longboats until we get closer to 60p. So no need look over horizon yet.

Romaron, thanks and apologies accepted:-) I don’t have big financial skills, but I follow and learn here a lot. And a good memory of numbers and big interest in Enq performance

Hi Romaron, I am happy you finally got it. Yday you also jumped into some wrong conclusions due to this. Wheels falling of since RI to YE RI manifesto not kept by Enq Ratio 1,5 convenants holding back Enq from making a deal. It was those conclusions I reacted on because I didn’t agree at all.

Morning E, Thanks, let’s hope Romaron understands your explanation better.

E, do you agree on Romaron post 20:39?

Pelle - I'm talking about the Net debt to EBITDA ratio. Page 1 on press release EnQuest.com and P.281 of RI Prospectus. Net debt at EY was $1,774.50 million.
Whilst on it's clear that the wheel fell off between the RI and the YE due to the oil collapse. The manifesto in the RI wasn't achieved.

Hi E

Right
But Romaron also talks about debt convenants at P281 at Magnus prospect.
1,5 to1 and given our earlier discussion regarding RBC analyst mistake my take is that they only apply on the RCF bank debt.

Romaron said: I cannot get my head around the target of 31 March 2019 1.50:1.00 extending to the 30 June 2021. Its almost like a penalty and a restriction on future deals (probation?).

Lol greenfool, I doubt and hope it’s not down to lacking a resource at hedging. Calling things in 100 million usd up and down range. My guess is hedging department trade within some limits. If bigger decisions and moments comes up then management is involved and AB have final vote. Or other way, once good opportunity comes comes AB tells hedging department to look into proposal of hedging extended horizon

Hi greenfool, That’s my understanding also now. But he didn’t really get away with it...

Hi Romaron, Situation with cash was better then ever last autumn compared to last 1-3 years in my opinion and AB said so also in Davos. Convenants, 1,5-1 in RI prospect only counts on the bank debt RCF. So exclude the bonds and Oz loan and your below 1. This is the failure RBC analyst made and calculating Enq would break convenants counting on the full net debt. They later admitted their mistake. Sorry if my English not good enough explain

Hi L3, Yes, agree. I don’t expect them to call it 100% correct with hedging. But what happened back then with putting hedge for shorter period then normal and with lower floor was bad. Not a single barrel sold at 80 safely for this year