Member Info for Pelle

Not sure
I think AB's comment strange also

Trend towards 2, to me it looks more like trend towards 1,5.
So I wonder is I am missing something, or is AB just very very careful in this statement
Lets see if anyone explain

“We are committed to further reducing our debt, and expect our net debt to EBITDA ratio to trend towards 2x this year
and intend to operate within our 1-2x target in the future.

Hello,

In this seekingalpha article they say:
while Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA is 3.1x. The company targets a 2x Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio by end 2019 (see p.22).

EBITDA: 716 million
Net Debt: 1774 miilion

How do they get 3,1? I get 2,5 if devide above figures

Thanks Weny Very interesting, need to read again in detail later.

Hi Chilting

Maybe, I also find it strange that many stockmarket index is up 20% this year Stockholm/USA.
Thats usually a sign of future good economy, but there been talk about fears of economic slow down in world last half year. Bit mixed picture it seems

Hi Chilting

I find it bit strange oil is still only 70 with Iran and venezuela sanctions.
And strong OPEC cuts.
I think we will be in 75-80 range within some weeks

Exactly KO, Will you go there?

Hi KO

Yes, like 50-100 million is piss in mississippi for Enq but would mean a lot for shareholders and give share another status.

I remember swedish company Boliden after finacial crisis, it had crisis valuation.
Once they said they re-introduce dividend the share lifted 30-40% that day.
First then market understood they were out of crisis.
I see same here, as you say latest 2021 if things stay normal

Lol E, I bet you do:-) I stick to my alcohol on occasions.
If you dont believe me about Enq doping write to Enq IR and ask about doping in Nov/Dec:-)

ok, so lets say 300 debt reduction this year.
If they reduce capex to around 100 million 2020/21 then they can reduce debt around 500-600/year.
So its around 1400 miilion reduction over 3 years. approx. only 400 million debt left end 2021.
But they said they will keep debt at a ratio 1-2 with EBITDA.
Meaning they will have atleast 600 million too much end 2021.

So I think they will paydown the RCF by around mid next year
Keep bonds debt around 1 billion and refinance it later.

Use cashflow 600-700 million and approx equally devided in capex,acquisition and dividend.
And thinking about fossil fuel future and enviroment and how unsure future is.
I would not overspend on capex and acquisition. Just keep company stable around 60-80k.
Collect the investments and see where things might trend in the world.

Chilting, analyst saying they could be better then expected.

sounds like the police officers who come to a crime scene and said judging from the trace the perpetrators might have been one or more.

Hi Hitman,

Do you mean I have to continue live on swedish cracker bread until 2022 now? !!
I better buy home a few pallets and get price down!

Hi E,

Yes, your right about H1 hedging cost.
But H2 I think I counted to FCF 55 million July-Oct from operation, with I think was low based on oil prices.
Nov-Dec something happened, they pulled of like 100 million FCF. As I understand it Nov/Dec was bit doped by postponing invoices. Maybe to get insentive shares?

Analyst will need to update their numbers sooner or later, they based everything on worst case senario.
Now it more looks like a best case senario with both production and oil prices.

Hi Squif

I think all regular people here are real and true, its just different personality and views of things.
Well, I know I am real atleast.
Was is true that you sit on so large holding here? And you even topped up some weeks ago you said.

Hi Hitman

I can see they do similar type of deal as Magnus already this year, no upfront money and maybe cost 200 million in 2 years time. I think AB will be much more careful in future and never put the company in danger again.
And he would also like to recover some of his investment by dividend.

Hi Squif

Agree, 2018 was poor FCF wise for debt reduction from operations even if oil prices was great.
If take out money for postponed invoices, RI, Thistle , Bumi

Some analyst now have same view this year still that it will be difficult make ends meet.
but with this production and oil prices we should be more then fine

Hi Hitman

So you think they will just follow the agreed amortisation schedule for RCF and put money in bank for future acquisition?
It fine if they continue growth but not so we get so extreme debt ratio as we had last years.
And they need give us starving shareholders something too

Interesting future

I doubt AB would accept even 60p

Hi Twal, Yes, I estimate 72,5k first 4 months. Today I played with excel and considered the different maintenance stops and I see around 72,5k full year also if Kraken keeps this production and only stops 3 weeks Let’s see what we get in May and if they comfortable lift the guidance

Why fixture?

Hi Squif

75k H1 average seems bit high, need stop Magnus 3 weeks in Q2 and maybe some of the smaller fields also
My 81k April was including full Magnus and I think they do the maintenance in May and connect the new well too.
I think we can average 72,5k May/June also, same as I think we done in first 4 months.

Thats really nice!
Keeps on 45k

Improvments started already in March
Counting from Jan/Feb total production base 67,7k
I get total prod
Jan/Feb 67,7k
March 74k ( 7k net extra from Kraken)
April 81k ( 14k net extra from Kraken)

Average Jan-April: 72,5k
Comparing with prod guidance 63-70k
It looks like we should easy be able hit high end guidance full year even including 3-4 weeks maitenace all fields.