Member Info for Pelle

Hello

This looks nice to me, if US production tops at 12-15 mmb/d.
Once production flatten or declines I think we going for really high oil prices.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12

Looks like this escalating fast and just the start of it now

What is you estimates for next update Jan to April? This is mine Production 72k Net debt reduction 50-75 million

Hi Chilting, Hispania was my thoughts also since it stayed there after unload. Let’s hope it leaves soon for Kraken

Hi Squif Yes, we half way through this marathon now. Best to set expectations low and we might get happy surprises. Let’s see what we get from update next week

Love_you, JB bought in 2014 and earlier and so did AB for above 100p
Guess they didnt imagine oil prices could stay low for many years.
JB have probably taken part in both cash calls and average down

http://capita.moneyam.com/director-deals/ENQ/EnQuest

Hi Squif

I think you need to be patient here!
We are running out of debt first in approx 1200 days
And running out of freefloat shares in approx 1500 days ( projected AB's future buy's)
Once both these are fullfilled we will establish shareprices continously above 20p

Speaking about Trump, he is running out of friends as we speak and hopefully we dont hear more from him after next year.

Hi MO,

Ouch, what happened with those reserves at PMO?

Just checking bit on marketscreener and comparing
It looks they roughly both lost 80% value since theyheights before oil collaps.
Looking ahead at numbers I would say Enq would be my choice

https://www.di.se/nyheter/uae-inga-explosioner-men-sabotage-mot-fyra-oljetankrar/

Hi KO and Squif

I think AB is good and backed up the company and saved it.
And it will pay off soon one way or the other big time over next years.
Now its just time switch focus and be more clear what they want to do next 5 years as you also said.

I think most here agrees they will not pay back all debt, lets say they keep one billion debt.
There we should be roughly end 2020.
If its all about growth as many say, and no retun to shareholders for many years.
Then they can spend approx 2 billion on capex and aquisitions during 2021-2023.
That I dont think is sensible.

Anyway, whatever they do with all these money over next years if oil price stays normal it must be impossible for marketcap to stay at these levels.

KO, It will be very interesting hear what you will find out at AGM

Hi Romaron

But need read second quote also.
Already end this year we will probably be close to Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1,5

We can speculate forever, but AB needs to be more clear what he wants to do next 5 years.
Without this information it doesnt attract investors

Hi Soder

I dont agree, below is mention in last report.

Its mention in last report:
“Longer term, our capital allocation will balance investment to develop our asset base, returns to shareholders and the
acquisition of suitable growth opportunities.”

Also mention in report:
“We are committed to further reducing our debt, and expect our net debt to EBITDA ratio to trend towards 2x this year
and intend to operate within our 1-2x target in the future.

Hello

It seems biggest problem is that they fail to impress any analysts and I dont understand that.
Once 6-7 years ago Enq was considered in Sweden as they safe choice among the oil companies, stable production in safe area. The last years its considered the highest risk and few years ago we barely survived too.
If things stay normal and we do 70k/70 oil this will turn around again.
There will be a massive flow of money after 2019.
Lets assume end debt this year 1500.
Next year 2020 EBITDA 1000 million , reduce that with 100 to BP and 200 leasing cost/interest loan
That leaves us with 700 million.
Capex 100 million
Debt reduction 500 million
Dividend 100 million

Repeat this 2021 to 2023 with slightly lower EBITDA of 900 million.
Then they can be debt free end 2023
Given dividend 550 million ( 150 million 2021-2023)
Spend 550 million is capex.

If they decide to keep debt of around 1000 million after 2020 that gives us about 900 million firepower to buy some assets 2021-2023

How this can have an marketcap of 450 million usd today is a big mystery.

I dont see the big risk anymore, 2019 they can basically hedge up and close good finacial wise if they want to.

All this sums up in the in the interesting question that Krakenoil will ask at AGM, what is the 5 year plan?

Lol E, yeah best conclusion today:-)

Hi KO

Your right, for me AB is one of the big reasons why I invest a lot here.
If it would be a just normal CEO with limited share holding I would be more sceptical.
The cash raising last two times been as limited as possible compared to EV.

Hi Squif

Thats perfect, its the perfect turnaround case Enq. Thats what I am looking for a lot upside and limited downside.
I fear high valuation company with most credibility.
Think you should join the AGM and ask when we will get the 120 million back.
I would propose 50-100 million 2020 and 100-200 million 2021
Thats will do it for us all who invested and saved the company

Lol E, yeah Billund airport doesn’t sound so exciting:-) never been there. Your right that history of Enq still holding down valuation. But what I mean is to me it seems we roughly in same shape as this Kosmos financial wise. So if they can pay some dividend this year I see no reason why Enq can’t next year. That will help valuation a lot. Remaining RCF next year could probably be replaced with other loan at better interest

Hi E, You sound pessimistic today, we all have such days with holding Enq:-) Did you check this Kosmos company? If they can pay dividend already I see no reason why Enq can’t give 1p quarterly from April next year something. It would certainly give big insensitive holding shares

Wow Itsa, is it really you or someone stolen you id? Looks like you turned around 180 degrees. Glad you did, as finally we understand you

Hello

Did they have meeting with analyst 7 th May?

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Presentations/Research_analysts_-_May_2019.pdf