Member Info for Pelle

Any guesses tomorrow?
Mine
Prod Jan-April: 72k
Net debt: 1700
Share closing price: 24,75p

Lol KO:-)

Right Squif, need some food on the table too. :-) or what you say in UK

Squif agreed not to be negative for 2 weeks. Maybe soon he returns as new person

Good morning E, Yeah, would have been fun trade and could have realised profit quickly. Anyway, will be holding on for the bigger amount of shares 3-4 year or forever. Think then we should see 1-2 GBP

Hi Svensson

Yes, I also get around that range for Jan-April. 72k
Lets see if they can keep kraken 40-45 full year.
And need calculate approx 3 weeks maintenance all fields, Kraken in Sept if remember correct.

I also hope they lift full year guidance, because 63k looks very low.
If they lift it, that will be big boost I think

Svensk

There was an update on enquest site few weeks ago about Kraken future

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Presentations/Research_analysts_-_May_2019.pdf

Hi Svensk

Yeah, 70k is good if can average. 65 usd oil maybe bit conservative, 70 if continue as now .
Wish I could tell you exactly:-)

Messy? Maybe you used wrong word?

They been drilling at Kraken for 2-3 years and just finished the last wells in March so I hope they dont start anything there in 1-2 years yet.

This year they drilling 2 wells Magnus and 2 wells Malaysia.
And laying new pipelines from one field in northsea and connect to Magnus.

Hej Svensk

I also saw these numbers on swedish forum and its bit rosy.
The file itself is very similar to the one I build myself
I discount sales with 94% something
Prod 2019 , best case I would say slighly above 70k because there will be maintenance stops
Opex/capex, correct
Magnus BP: I have 100 million 25% deal + 75% deal vendor loan+ waterfall ( maybe E need correct if I am of)
Interest: Think I have 220 million ( including 100 million leasing cost)
Then you end up with FCF more like 400-500 million

2020 , Its bit dream scenario if we get 82k and 78 oil.
Think more realist FCF 600-700 million

Still its huge numbers if we can do more then 1 billion over 2 years. And a half year is already gone

Thanks E:-)

Hi E

What is the SFA loan?

Thanks L3
I vote for 1p/quarterly to start with April 2020
Put a big smile on me:-)

http://ravarumarknaden.se/oil-will-not-flow-freely-and-middle-east-risk-is-rising/

Hi E, Fully agree, there won’t be any new RI. Both last two been as limited as possible to survive and put company on stable ground. And AB would not load up with shares now if another RI for growth is on table in 1-2 years. Pay down RCF by mid next year. After that there approx 700 million/year to spend on Debt Dividend Capex Acquisition Slow down production growth to 5-10% per year.

Lol Squif, your new tactic already pay of big time:-)
Keep it up

Crazy, talk about signs if now someone missed the other 10 buys last half year!

Hi Svensson Yes, numbers seems fine in total. Will be very interesting on Thursday!

Morning E, I talked with dad yday evening and I was trying transfer money but didn’t work without calling bank so it ended with conclusion we already have enough shares:-) I would not be surprised if we see 25p this week. And a bigger re-valuation during summer and autumn. The risk premium should go down, 2019 the last expensive and tight year and in few months can basically hedge up and close the year. 2020 looks much much better FCF and market will soon look at it. Time goes fast

Hi E

Agree, only at first presentation it was some confusion.
But by now it should be well known how it works
Can't believe that should be the reason

Hi Londoner

Think general conclusion here is
2019 EBITDA 900-1000 million
Debt reduction 250-350 million

Next year probably around double debt reduction