Member Info for Pelle

Morning E, Yeah I know we discussed Magnus waterfall several times. But still it’s not clear for everyone. The first presentations back in September it was not explained in a simple way.

Great news! Chilting, are we around 40-45k over last 3 tankers?

Hi Londoner

Please check page 24 here
The vendor loan of 100 million is split on 5 years+ interest so Enq will pay approx 27 million back to BP this year.
Think its divided quarterly also.
Then Enq should get 100 million back
And there will be a smaller profit share to at end of year.

Next year will be more to BP but then Enq gets 100% of the 25% deal

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Presentations/EnQuest_2018_Full_Year_Results_and_2019_Outlook_-_FINAL2.pdf

Hi Chilting

Yes, I also been looking forward to next Moody's update.
Think your right that its close now

Hi Spindok, Of course I also want Enq to be debt free at some point. If the reduce debt to 1 billion end next year. Then can do the remaining 1 billion reduction over next 5-10 years Let’s see what we get, it’s a long horizon and oil prices up and down

Given the pace we doing now end 2020 debt will be 1 billion and 1-1 with EBITDA. 2021 there are a FCF of approx 700 million That can be spent on 4 things Debt reduction Capex Acquisition Dividend How they exactly prioritise between this remains to be seen but if assume a dividend of 100 million there still 600 million to throw on the other 3 things Personally I want to see 50-75 million dividend already next year also. It will make share more attractive and boost share price

Good morning Therapist and Londoner

Please check P203 in Magnus prospect also, think it might be interesting for you

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Corporate_actionsPDFs/Rights_Issue/RIProspectus.pdf

Hi Runner

Yes, I know price goes down the further out in time you do hedging.
But last autumn when price was 85 it was possible sell through out 2019 at 80.
We discussed it here.
I think they just thought it was going to 100 usd and therefor missed the chance

Should not cry over 100-200 million usd, lets hope we get another chance at 85 in summer:-)

Hi KO

So next year we should attend the AGM and vote for dividend quarterly with start 1 July 2020:-)

Hello Runner

Yes, I remember that brilliant hedging they did when oil started to fall from above 100 usd.
Just pitty they completely missed the hedging last autumn when they could have secured 80 usd through 2019.
My calculations also indicates they can be debt free in 3,5 years from now if they want.
But I think they will keep a debt of around 1 billion and 1-1 with EBITDA.

Hi Runner

Sounds good, do you take that as dividend might come next year something small?
Running my numbers I see no problem at all pay 1p quarterly next year and still reduce debt to closer to 1 billion

I been trying to say this here but everyone keeps saying its dividend earliest 2021/22

Hi Londoner

Are you saying that of 20k production its only 12k oil and 8k gas?
I dont believe that looking at prospect for Magnus, see P173/174
And P185, says Gas price up/down have very little impact.

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Corporate_actionsPDFs/Rights_Issue/RIProspectus.pdf

Anyone have access to Moodys and can post text here?

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/EnQuest-plc-credit-rating-823728976

Hello,

For the people at swedish forum Avanza, please see page 24 here how cashflow for Magnus will be devided 2019 and further years for the 75% deal.

The 25% deal I estimate Enq finished payback vendor loan by end of summer.
And after that Enq gets the FCF always.

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Presentations/EnQuest_2018_Full_Year_Results_and_2019_Outlook_-_FINAL2.pdf

Lol January:-)

Yeah, right should be right.
Well done too!

Twalbyoff

What L3 said sound likely and in line with remaining FCF approx 225 million
L3: $100M of the RCF due by 1/10/19. And I would then expect ENQ to pay down another $125M of debt by 31/12.

Next year we see approx 500-600 million FCF after capex 150 million.
We need wait and see if they prioritize paying down the RCF completely

Hi Plethorus

The 100 million vendor loan for 75% deal I assume they have pay 5 years 20 million + interest each year
2019,20,21,22,23

BP also get 50% cashflow from the 75% deal and its more difficult calculate when its finished in time.
Think all in all its 1 billion roof to BP and maybe takes 5-6 years.

Hi L3 and Therapist

Very good production estimates!
I was expecting bit more production but once I adjusted my FCF model for these numbers my net debt was only 1 million of
Now I also see 1500 end year as L3 indicate too.
Its good and next year should be a lot better if they reduce capex.

L3, dont understand why you so detail interrested in the Magnus vendor loan.
I have approx 100 million back to BP 25%/75% deal vendor loan and cashflow share.

The 25% vendor loan I think they will clear around end summer.
The 75% vendor loan 20 million /year + interest I think I read they get those parts first month each quarter.

So my take on it is that the flow of money back to BP is quite equally spread H1/H2 all in all

Hi plethorus, Your welcome, what’s your 5 vision now? Remember you wanted or thought they do more Magnus deals.

Hi Itsa,

Yes, Magnus is super deal we got almost for free both the 25% and the 75%
Only had to outlay 100 million that we get back in approx 9 months.
Its exatly what Enq needed to put this stable production and cashflow on top of existing business.

It would be perfect timing now make another Magnus deal now that can be executed in 2-3 years.
Then Enq easy have these extra money put on acquisition 100-300 million.

I calculated that from 2021 Enq have 1 billion debt/EDITDA and approx 700 million cashflow they can spend on
Capex
Acquisition
Dividend
Debt reduction