Member Info for Pelle

Londoner, Did you get further on your Enq valuation?

Better tanker photo https://www.di.se/live/har-brinner-norska-oljetankern-oljepriset-fortsatter-upp/

Norway shipper avoid region for the biggest tankers

https://www.avanza.se/placera/telegram/2019/06/13/olja-norska-tankfartyg-stoppar-bokningar-oljan-siger.html

Japan related tankers... https://www.di.se/live/irans-utrikesminister-efter-attackerna-dialog-ar-absolut-nodvandigt/

something like 1,5-1,55 bn with oil at 60 rest of the year and kraken doing its job and 3 weeks maintenance.
I am not worried enquest will go under even with oil at 40-50 but the pace of debt reduction will just be too slow.
And I guess 2019-22 will be top production years so important get it down these years.

Its a long road and oil prices never rest, already in few weeks we have new possibal triggers.
Trade deal and Opec.

Squif, checked some other oil shares and they basically around that end Nov level.
50 decrease of debt is marginal compared to 1700 still left.
Should do another 60 million for May/June, better but still not enough speed
Were lucky with Kraken performance now and have Magnus!

Lol Squif
Just need get flushed a bit and come out the other end stronger.
Even at 60 oil we are doing better then ever in the last years so no reason to worry.

Lol Beerbull. For those money he could have bought a oil company named Enquest. But maybe it’s investment to diversify

Hi Chilting I like the Magnus deal, who would not it you got such a field almost for free? 100 million is peanuts and we even get those money back first hand. With bit of luck they could have paid the 100 million without RI. Its welcome if he can strike another such deal with payment 2-3 years from now. Probably it’s needed to keep up with declines. My point was more to highlight the very low breakeven point next year without capex. And that these planned drilling’s basically could be done anytime. So I would try limit capex basically to zero for 6-12 months and really get us stronger near term. I am also risk taker, maybe even bigger then AB but sometimes you need seal the deal and get money back. For example by last autumn place as much possible hedges at 80 usd for 2019 given how important year it is. That safely bring down debt 500-600 million. If that would have been a mistake and oil went to 100 usd mid this year, and they could hedge 2020 at 90. I think no one would complain. We would be debt free end next year then. Now we need continue with bit of risk, 50 % volume hedged at 66 usd and future seems volatile. Then risk can be reduced by reducing capex for a time until oil recovery and good hedge in place.

squif, should be at end down...
This will continue until changed

I can try

http://ravarumarknaden.se/brent-crude-again-heading-towards-the-60-bl-danger-zone/

Chilting, that would be insane put us at risk for another 5-10 years.

I checked my files today, and if put capex to 0 next year we have a breakeven for FCF of around 33-35 usd.
Projects for next years is if I understand something Enq can decide and execute with relativly short notice, Magnus and Malaysia.
Additional Kraken drilling we dont know so much about. (cost and timing) I dont think its for 2020

So we are very safe even with these prices.
But I would postpone and reduce capex as much as possible and focus on debt until we see higher prices and have good hedges in place for next year.

Enq starts to become a very solid company and it will pay of big time at some point in time

Seems they adding bit more reserves over time, more then they produce.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oilreserves-kemp-column/u-s-oil-reserves-rise-to-record-despite-production-boom-kemp-idUSKBN1O4165

Hi E

But reserves in US are not endless or?
I remember some years ago when I checked they were quite limited.
Or are they growing over time now?

Hi Weny

Yes, I also think he will continue buy. I saw on Avanza some speculated he want to cross 10% to prevent any take over.
I also had same thoughts but dont know if rules are same in UK.

Hi Weny

Yes, its nice article from 2012, I read it again today.
What I picked up today is
* Denies he's a billionaire, but admits he's "clos.e"

At that time I think his investment in Enq was about 100 million pund
So he have some serious cash outside Enq

Hi KO, I was thinking same with consumption and production and import export. And think I come to conclusion consumption 20 million is all energy not only oil. And production 13 million oil on top of that you have other energy production also.

I found a short text about this on Swedish forum and searched and found some link with more info. I never saw such analyse before and need read again.. https://wagnerbusinessreview.com/quant-scores-investor-update-on-enquest-plc-lseenq-as-gross-margin-score-hits-55-00000/21664/

Runs like Swizz clock now. I start wonder if there will be even more after September fixes. And with additional Kraken areas to be drilled in next years they extend the high production plateau