Member Info for Pelle

Hi modestus, I started check these on marketscreener. But it’s not so easy compare and make conclusions if not into details. Do you feel Enq or some of the others have same value increase potential over let’s say 3 years?

Modestys, what other company’s you have in mind?

Chilting, yeah I also been waiting for Moodys. Maybe contact the guy who wrote it last time

Itsa, maybe it’s your old sins holding us back

Wonder what marketcap would be today if they didn’t do RI and bring on Magnus 75%? Strange no analyst updates for longtime specially as big things have happened

Lol:-) Probably not

Monkey, seems some other also had problems. Post again. Too quiet here last days

Good morning L3

I see you know your stuff and numbers very well with Enq.
But the way it comes out it sounded pessimistic talking about new Mercuria loans and OZ using Londoner numbers.
I am glad you upbeat about production and I take it as you use now 70k as a base case.

Please give your estimates for FCF remaining 8 months of the year given current oil price and hedge.
Also split the FCF for RCF and OZ.

I am also interested in your view of 2020 capex.
Personally I would vote for limit them as much as possible as after this year we fixed so many things.
4x2 Magnus/Malaysia drills, Kraken DC4, Pipelines in north sea.

For me it would make sense limit capex to 50-100 million or even close to zero and just run out FCF and come on top of the economic situation for the company.

Hi Londoner

At the end of April 2019, net debt was $1,724 million, down from $1,774 million at 31 December 2018 reflecting strong operational performance and a supportive oil price more than offsetting the anticipated unwind of the c.$50 million favourable working capital position at the end of 2018.

I see it more like cashflow was 50+50 million first 4 months

And Kraken average 28k gross first 4 months
May / June looks like around 40k.

So to get out FCF 100 million in 5 months should not be difficult.
And as you say they have 230 million cash too.

Lol E, Squif is harmless and just making cynical jokes because disappointing SP. Let’s see how golf goes, looks like a tight field so far. Will be interesting watch Sunday

Evening E, yes but today glass was less then half empty. Watching the golf? Rose is doing good

L3, that was really pessimistic.

Its 100 million RCF left to be paid in October + Oz deal.
Given what they done prod/cashflow first 4 months and what we seen Kraken May/June prod and know the hedge at 66.

I dont see any problems do 100 million +OZ in 5 months.

So we are pretty far from calling Mercury for another loan

I think whoever did it, it won’t stop here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Gz08OQUnms

https://twitter.com/aeberman12

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/US-Video-Proves-Iran-Was-Behind-Tanker-Attacks.html

Thanks Londoner, I didn’t intend check your figures in detail but I see we are in same ballpark. As you say they there many variables and things will happen during 1-2 year horizon. With production profiles etc. I strongly trust AB’s judgement and if he can’t resist from buying more it’s good enough for me. He have best knowledge about the variables we don’t know

Hi Londoner Thanks:-) your numbers looks very much the same as mine now. Mine are just little higher maybe only due to 70k prod. Anyway, how do translate this into fair valuation today? And there are also huge part of “good cost” in my opinion. BP vendor loan and cash flow FPSO leasing Capex All in all about 500 million more that should work in our favour by time. I never came across any investment in life that is likely to generate such huge numbers compared to valuations.

Squif, yeah laundry can be heavy. I think about out sourcing it myself and hope thay can do cleaning too:-)
Think P-E valuation not most important, I am not acountant but guess they could book a FCF debt reduction of 250 million this year but profit only 50 million.

Debt is still heavy weight here, and unsecurity of future oil prices.
Do the 1,5 multiple Debt/EBITDA end this year and I think analyst will need start re-consider Enq

Squif, I only said 1,5bn end year based on current oil prices. For share price and valuation need run the numbers for 3-5 years more on different oil scenario. But it does look good to me if we above or around 60 next years. I hoping for another run in oil prices and they can start hedge more

Hi Londoner, Yes with 175 capex you should be on the very safe side. I used 150 to be on safe side