Member Info for Pelle

Squif, so you saying it will soon be up again?
Surprised by your possitive view today, might be good sign

Lol Therapist:-)

GKB
They will saddle up ones they reach hostile water

Lol GKB, dont mix your beans and pills.
Relax dont worry, Swedish Vikings have already set sail, ETA Nov/Dec depending on weather

http://www.bilddump.se/bilder/20190806224535-178.73.210.139.jpg

Hi L3

Yeah, this GENL seems nice similar to swedish Tethys with 10% yield and no debt.
But I think Enq can do alot more then that in few years 25-50%.
Or capital growth.

Lets hope AB read my posts and get value out faster, something needs to happen

Hello

Yeah, orange man fears and fears of where oil in heading longterm also due to enviromental discussion every day at TV.
Anyone sure if oil will be 30 or 300 usd in 10 years or guess an average?
And Enq is maybe not first choice then, with no immediately retuns to shareholders.

Maybe AB needs to re-think and not trying to maximize profits over 10 years and value this out more short term.
Do 1-2 years almost capex free. Not strange if we been on heavy growth investment last 6-7 years
and or sell 20% Kraken ~400 mill, more likekly now with stable production
A combination of these would put us debt free quickly and loose maybe 10-12K production.

Lets assume Enq could have net prod of 50k then after sale 20% Kraken and BP Magnus share.
This would give a FCF of approx 500 mill / year.
I would be happy with that compared to current market cap that is approx the same.

As Squif and many other pointed out after the deal, where are 500 mill NPV Magnus?
Thats sunk in the 10 year maximum profit plan with rest on Enq is my guess
Magnus alone at 18K = 6,5 mill/year x (60-30) = ~ 200 mill/year cashflow and Enq get simplified 62,5% = 120 mill/year
Yes, its worth 500-600 mill still in my eyes but we need value out faster.

Lets see what happens in Sept with update, but surerly AB needs to do something with shareholder value more short term.

Thanks Dol!

Chilting or anyone

How we doing with next tanker?
How many days now?

Hi KO

I dont see how that was possible, movement was not so big.
Even 100k shares at lowest and highest trade would only give about 400 GBP
Or maybe I need more coffee

Hi KO
What did you do?
Bought early in morning and sold after 1 hour and made 2k profit?

http://ravarumarknaden.se/trade-war-today-and-oil-market-balance-tomorrow/

Hi L3,

Sounds nice if he come and pay for 60p party.
I only trying to say I will continue to hold few years or more with or without dividends. The FCF is huge compared to market cap so almost whatever they do it must be good investment from here.
Unless oil totally crash or they go a risky way with another huge Kraken type investment.

Net debt below 1300 end 2020 should be easy. My calculations indicates as low as 1b if they keep a lower capex.
So it seems there room for some party money next year.

I am bit lazy learning new language, few words only I picked up.

Hi L3,
I will wait, already been committed 3-4 years here so I won’t fold now.
Question is how long AB will wait.
What’s his long term goal for Enq and maybe exit plan?

Still enjoy Brazil, Bahia region was amazing

Hi L3,

Good point, are there no benefits between 15 and 30 %?
Have you looked at next year same logic?

HMH,

Epiphany is 100% correct.
Its complex but I learned there bit simple ways to work around your model as it’s similar mine.

1. Multiply revenue with 0,95-0,9 to take into account gas and Malaysia.
2. Decrease FCF Enq with 100 mill going to BP this year and 150 million next year forward.
3. To compare results need same production figures also. I think some here are inline with 70-73k full year.

Or we can try talk next week by email or phone

Hello HMH,
Yes we paid 100 million last year to get the 75%. If you look at one of the last reports or investor presentation there was a good picture explaining.
The 75% deal give Enq more cash 2019 then next year.
And the 25% deal should start give Enq cash flow after summer 2019 sometime.

Hello HMH,

Magnus, its repayments of vendor loan and cash flow share going to BP.
For this year I calculated it to about 100 million.
And next year slightly more around 150 million.
Next year BP should have 37,5% casflow + about 25 million vendor loan repayments.

Opex I would assume about the same for next year, 600.

Think GKB is correct.
Actually at airport now, Bahia region was one of the best places I visit so it was worth some flygskam

https://www.bustle.com/p/what-does-flygskam-mean-this-swedish-word-about-flying-is-changing-the-way-people-travel-17228474

GKB, still I don’t understand it

Exactly Yhyh