Member Info for Pelle

GKB, maybe its my or Swedish humour.
Saying something crazy and see if people believe or not?
For some you need to continue exaggerate until they get it:-)

GKB, its in my excel file:-) No sense of humour today?

Hi Therapist

One on Avanza told the followed the tanker, so it holds more then Kraken oil.
Kraken-Sapphira-Ceuta-Oceania-Malaysia

Sorry for releasing June figures before you:-) whats your estimate?

Think this is the one having Kraken second last offload.
Hope we get nice premiums now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/huge-euronav-tanker-starts-12-400-mile-trip-to-fuel-storage-zone

June is 74236 :-)

No, I don’t expect any update before 7th Sep. They didn’t have last year

Hi Chilting,
I think something like you for next 6 months. And bit higher average further out.
I updated files with an base case today
Get 62 usd rest of this year including hedge. Prod 70k. October scheduled amortisation of approx 100 mill will be done by FCF May-Sep.

2020/21
Prod 70k and 65 oil, capex 150 mill.

This scenario will generate approx 1200 mill from Oct 2019 to end 2021.
Scheduled amortisations
2020 150 mill
2021 450 mill.

So there will be 600 mill left after amortisation. My guess is that they clear there amortisations already 2020.
And 2021 give an dividend around 200 mill.

There margins and capex to take from if average oil is lower so it have to get really nasty for them not to be able do the amortisations.

Will buy another 400k shares for family over next months. Maybe half before update.

This scenario is why AB also can’t resist buying more.

Hi Chilting,

ITX , is it the Canada company at 9,86 CAD?

Thanks GKB

Yeah, the periods with relief and happiness been short.
Things can change fast.
You mention before production declines is rest of world. I read articles last years that 2020 was the year it might play a bigger factor. But 2020 now look well supplied.
Do we have any graph supply/ demand next 5 years estimate?

Hi Chilting ,

Someone asked about tanker before
where it finally went
And there post on avanza.
Sapphira-Ceuta-Oceania-Malaysia

I thought this was good reading

http://ravarumarknaden.se/shale-producers-ramp-up-production-as-pipes-to-gulf-opens/

GKB, i was just joking little and your penalties on me are still harmless.
I do realise that oil price sub 60 won’t be enough for my case next year.
Oh boy, why didn’t they go full tilt on 80 usd hedge? Guess I soon get penalties or banned for bringing it up too. Lol.

HMH, I saw discussion at Avanza, confirming 5% tax at ISK.
Lucky UK was so low and could consider KF in future if this becomes a big factor.

Hello HMH,
100 mill or plus yearly would come just fine. Do you know if it’s tax free on ISK?
I think purely Swedish shares are.
Been looking forward to 60p party now for some years.
Wonder what will come first party/dividend?

I bet on dividend

I think your ignoring the most important in an situation like this, dividend!
And with zero-hedge article saying SP will peak around 3-7 months from now.
It would be great to get it early to maximise the number of new Enq shares we can buy.

Bit difficult guess what’s going on in Trumps mind, but I really hope they do the deal during autumn.
To predict the future is even harder, I didn’t think Trump or Brexit would win.
I really hope he loses this time and that next guy doesn’t have low oil prices as first priority.
See and listen to all his stupidity another period I can’t take

I think in Enq case SP would be exactly same without AB buying.
Seen zero news effect on this info.
Other big companies can jump couple of % on such insider buying.

The world outlook is bit darker now.
60 oil is ok and next year breakeven for FCF maybe around 40.
But if oil drops down to 40-50 range I fear it’s another lost year with too less debt reduction at peak production.

Yeah probably 1 month before full year and half year results not allowed.
But before operational update seem ok to buy, looking at enquest site news flow.
Anyway, all his buying and I have not seen any effect.

Hi GKB,

Yes, production up and debt down during last 9 months.
But I think future FCF outlook was better back then and therefore I would stick to that it was in better place back then

Let’s just hope we get back to 70-80 usd this autumn and that would set us up for an massive 2020

Nice summery Mavrick,
Another unfortunate thing was that they put less hedging then normal last autumn when oil was high. That was big shock for me. Was expecting opposite.

Yeah, should maybe not be easy make money but....this been crazy.
I will also continue hold for several year as
it doesn’t take much to push this up multiple times over next years.

GKB, not sure I agree things are looking better now with 20 usd lower oil price then at RI time
Yes Kraken big big plus but we need bit more help from oil price