Member Info for Pelle

Lol January

First thing that come to my mind when I start read, did he finally learn copy or did he write down complete article?
At the end I was happy to read you finally learned copy:-)

You can copy links now also same way

Hi Osaka

Yes, end this year we should hit a more healthy debt/EBITDA ratio of 1,5. right in the middle where they want to operate.
That will open more doors and it will be interresting see AB's next moves in 2020.
Next year we talking about 600-700 million that can be spend on capex,aquisition,debt,dividend.
I also belive AB will snap up some similar Magnus deal and its almost risk free continue growth this way.

Hello Chilting,

If I remember correct shoot down Kraken is in October.
Guess it’s scheduled there after the repayment of 100 million RCF.
My guess is that schedule is fixed with key people flying in and take part in the maintenance.

Good morning Chilting

Is it soon time spot next tanker?

Osaka,
What is your perspective how this investment will come out over next 2-3 years?

Agree Itsa

Even 50p is too cheap now.
A hostile bid is difficult as AB controlling a big part and wont sell cheap at 50-60p now.
Just flushing down the debt over next 2-3 years should give us around 80-100p.

Good morning L3

No, its not mine figures. I read on that swedish forum too but prefer here.
No clue what the 91M is .

No reason to worry these days, AB dont and I won't!
Yday I was reading Lundin Petroleum 2018 Report.
The re-financed 5 billion credit facility 7 years from 3,15 to 2,25 over LIBOR.

I think Enq will improve this way to when debt/EBITDA ratio falling fast now

Yes L3
there only one maintenance stop included in this prod FC for Kraken.
Magnus was stopped in May for example.
I have basically scheduled maintenance stop for each small field in summer.
May to Dec I get around 72k estimate.
Full year 71k

Guess your around there too?

Well, AB already said they want to operate with debt/EBITDA between 1-2 in future.
I also want them debt free but once debt is closer to 1b they can re-finance and do the remaining 1b over 5-10 years.

Looking forward to the party too:-)

GKB, I am not the guy who give up:-)
100% sure this will give 20p dividend over next 5 years.
And not surprised if it will be 30-40p
If it starts 2020 or 21 remains to see

Hello Ajes

I agree
End this year estimate net debt 1,5b and EBITDA 1b so 1,5 ratio and right on where they want to operate 1-2 range.
RCF should be down to around 500 million end this year and that restrict dividend your.
Guess they will pay it down to 300 million in spring and re-finance it and get rid of RCF.
Or go hard core on RCF H1 to get rid of it and do capex/dividend H2.
2020 with current prod 70k and oil at 65 should give an EBITDA of approx 1000 million
Redcuce with
150 to BP
200 leasing cost and interest
Then have 650 million left that can be spend on following and I suggest
Debt 400
Capex 150
Dividend 100

Must be impossible keep this share down at these levels over next 1-3 years with 70k and 65 oil

I think we ignored simply because market think shareholder returns are 2-3 years away.
If AB can do 1p quarterly next year and double it 2021.
Its impossible stay at these levels.
Yet to early open mouth but maybe we can here something in couple more quarters

https://www.di.se/live/ras-for-ryska-oljeproduktionen-efter-brak-mellan-oljejattar/

Hej MO,

Think AB have a set of cards to play here with BP and SVT.
He will squeeze out as much profit as possible from SVT and it’s something we
not been able estimate yet.

Hi MO,

Yes, I remember read about fpso vs pipes for Claire.
Seems very strange to me how fpso could compete with pipes if you already have existing infrastructure with pipes

Sorry, my post was about multiples for EV/EBITDA

EV was around 1,8-2 billion back in 2016/17
Then it went up to around 2,5b and stayed there during approx 2 years.
And now we slided down to 2b.

Hi L3,

Yes i remember you said 1650 so I taken your number:-) it should be about there somewhere.

SVT, guess BP had 2-3 people for each job and think enquest mention before that there was potential for more savings.

Hello Ajes,

Good post and I agree to in the big picture.
Net debt I think will be bit lower, 1724 end April and that was after working of the 50 million capital movements.
So I would say around 1650 Net debt.

Yday I was calculating historical Enterprice values back to 2016 and Enq never been valued lower then now basically in term of EV we back to levels of end 2016/early 2017. then the multiple was around 4 Debt/EBITDA.
Now the multiple at around 2,3 Debt/EBITDA and when I calculated forward just keeping this multiple to end 2020 I got same result as you around 10 SEK if I remember correct.

Very interesting time ahead of us

Nice article Heardy
So Q3 will be even tighter supply then Q2.
And H2 2019 in balance if non-opec can increase production with almost 3 million barrels.
Can they really manage that?

I don’t see them saying it’s going to fail with a flat earning of 150-200 million per year. Would be interesting get their FCF estimates also. There we talking about 400-600 million per year after this year. Depending on capex. And it would be interesting get their oil price assumptions for all these years