Member Info for Pelle

Hi GKB,

I am afraid of being reported and banned here if I mention this word more.
What’s flyskam?

Yeah, I also this site as a guide for last years

Hi Yhyh,
What is your capex guess for next year?
I think the will do another round at Magnus and Malaysia total 4 holes and maybe 50-100 million + something else small 50 million so 100-200 million range I expect.
Expand Kraken is maybe for 2021-23 and I would assume its not that expensive, as I understood it they will use existing DC’s.
Wild guess is around 100-150 million for it.

I would assume they address heavier on debt reduction then capex next two years and becomes financially stable.

To be honest I don’t see the big risk anymore as 2015-2019 period as they won’t invest them to death.

Only a long down turn in oil prices below 50 usd can continue keep an lid on SP performance over next years

Squif, so you want them to go below 1 in leverage I assume.
But AB want to operate between 1-2 in future.
Not surprised you disagree with AB:-)

Squif,

Soder writes: Unless enquest gets down to 1-1.5x leverage it is highly unlikely they will be able to pay dividends post a refinancing.

This is exactly the range I estimate enquest to be within early next year.

Hi Londoner,

Of course I am drinking caipirinha today.
Anyway I am serious saying 100 million.
As it’s approx 700 million should be splitted between debt reduction, capex and dividend.
No reason calculate any potential dividend by yield on market cap

Lol GKB:-)
Not me bring it up today.
Anyway, I think you all will remember where you heard it first.

Hi Moffa,

What is your capex expectations for next year in term of money?

We are talking about approx 700 million cash flow that can be allocated to debt reduction, capex, dividend.

Maybe in autumn we get more info

Sounds good E,
Think they will keep capex low next year 100-150 million.
And dividend around 100 million.
Makes sense to me after putting in so much money last couple of years here

Morning E,
Is 500 million stated in any document?
Think we will reach that around end of this year.

Hola E,
Winter is very relative, arrived yday in Porto Seguro and warm enough here.
Waking up today and looking at SP it seems like I need adapt to rice and beans:-)

FCF, will be much more interesting next year and if I remember correct we got guidance for capex and prod already in October last year for this year.
I see a potential for a big plus of FCF on top of the current schedule amortisation.
So it’s first time in many years there opens some more options.

About US, let’s hope for this stagnation and no more Trump.
Not much talk about the trade deal lately.... yday I read some article about new technology stock market open in China and at first trading day average rise of the shares was 140% and they talked about p/e numbers of 100-200.

I prefer my investment here even if both sector and Enq is disliked at moment there is a bottom and we must be close to it at these levels.
In few years things can look opposite.

Good luck all

Good morning E,
In Brazil now for vacation and following here sporadic. Nice to see there a change in the SP finally last weeks.
Regarding the OZ loan, if it now have an higher interest rate then RCF.
Can they clear the OZ loan with other money next year then the allocated 15%?
As amortisation on RCF is small next year.

HMH, yeah I see your point but probably they consider this info so small it doesn’t effect anything.
A couple of days delay when still in high point of yearly guidance and an asset that should produce for 25 years.
In big picture this slight delay is nothing.

HMH, I don’t doubt the info.
I have in the past myself asked questions to IR and got info that you could consider sensitive

Nice connection Romaron,
ASAP Rocky, Sweden, US, open farm gates in Uk 6th century.

Your right Squif,
Maybe they lowered the RCF rate now?

Yeah, if that happens I will have my own Jet going to the AGM 2025:-)

Yes, I also see no reason going for high growth. This will become safe, boring and with a huge dividend compared to current market cap of 450 million.
They will easy have given back current market cap in dividends over next 5 years.

HMH, yeah it sure will be some journey over next years. Guess AB will surprise us too with some move.
I also hope for dividend next year, even as small as 50 million.
Its better you post here then talking to yourself at Swedish forum:-)
There some great knowledge here to build up over several years.
Where do you live by the way?
I live in Malmö

HMH, yeah the same.
I read your posts on Swedish forum.
And I am your side here looking into future this surely must come good if oil prices stays normal even if I think your production forecast is a bit optimistic.
Big plus with AB’s holding and increasing.
Not often you get a chance buy something so cheap with so many good signals

Välkommen HMH:-)