Member Info for Pelle

Hi Squif,
Yes, we had about same journey and learned a lot on the way.
I also didn’t realise how bad things was back in 2016.
But I see AB’s work different and very happy he is in same boat with his 10%.
After signing papers for Kraken and oil went down for several years there not much he could done better.
The two RI was kept at minimum amount, maybe another CEO with less holding would raised more money and hit for us would been harder.
He started early drive down cost per barrel and investment for Kraken.
At first RI, AB convinced others he match investments 1-1 and I think got good deals.
As you point out Magnus was as great deal.
A CEO change during these years would only have slowed things down and you would get someone without any strong holding.
Only small thing AB and Enq could have done bit better was to put more hedges last autumn.

About shares I learned over 30 years, you often get surprised how low it can go.
And when it turns around you get surprised how fast and high it can go.

Let’s just hope now we get some tail wind from oil prices over next 2-3 years and this could come out really exciting

Hi L3

Then we very inline with our assumption for 2020/21 and also for H1 report.
Dont understand why you then question my future assumptions before?
Anyway, lets see who gets right about the final topic without mention the word your allergic to:-)

How many days are at now?

Hello E,
Lol.. we all different views here.
Squif, I still think hold.
He put up some reasonable numbers for 2019/20.
He just made it his thing being cynical and bitter for SP performance.
After these years, who can blame him?
Guess there other people out there reacted far worse

It was on swedish news also 2 days ago

https://www.google.se/amp/s/amp.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/matbrist-forutspas-vid-hard-brexit

Hi GBK

I think Magnus/Malaysia and new Northsea pipelines will come online around Q3.
I have also not factored any increases from it, just offset declines.
But we might get suprised about the pipelines:

Enq: At Scolty/Crathes, wax in the flow line continues to limit production. The replacement pipeline project is progressing as planned with pipeline fabrication complete and installation underway. Production is expected to improve significantly post project completion.

Hi GKB
19 mill equal 52k per day
So far I have following and estimates
Jan-April 70k
May 57k Oga+Malaysia.
June 73,5k
H1 average 68k
H2 estimate 72k includes maintenance

Should be possible if Kraken does good

L3,
You claim to be long term holder.
But never wants to give an long term outlook given some prod/oil/capex assumptions.

So your just holding and praying for the best and trust in AB’s work?

It doesn’t add up as your obviously smart

GKB, if you come to 19 mill barrels it must be wrong. I get 25,5 mill at 70k
Magnus/Malaysia 2 wells each are for H2
Also new pipelines in North Sea H2 to resolve wax issues
I think if Kraken doing 40k after sept we could be hitting 75-80k in Oct-Dec

L3,
No need to speculate about poor hedging done in May-Aug. Around last update May we had 70+ oil and June-July we seen 65 usd several times.
To me it looks like they extending hedges and volumes compared to last year.

You choose the pessimist view of it for some reason.

AB seems confident and I think he will continue buy after report in September

GKB, great!
Its worth waiting for those results

GKB, now when supercomputer is warmed up.
What does it say about 2020/21?

Sorry,

BE for FCF
2018: 60
2019: 50
2020: 40

Thanks GKB, that very kind of you.
Therapist, if you dont mind we could change location to something in south Sweden as you visit here sometimes.

If Therapist wins himself, can he then choose freely among the participants?

Exacty Squif

2019 BE around 60
2020 BE around 50

No problem if oil at 60-65 and bond capitalized, then they will pay down more on RCF.

Hi Squif

The hedging was needed, it was impossible go into 2018 without hedge for Enquest.
And oil prices just went up,up .
In my opinion it was the failed Kraken production causing the need for RI.
If I remember correct I calculated it too, and that equal the missing 100 mill

Yes 12 months from now with 60-65 oil and we alot more on safe side and far above 20p

It feels like no one cares we doing about 1 mill / day FCF today and 7 days a week

Hi Squif

Yes, leasing 93 mill.
But then you again say 213,5 mill for loan, bond and finance lease payments
So I think its double here.
I have ( mid debt around 1650x0,07= 115) + 93 leasing = 208 and I think I rounded up to 220
So I think your about 100 mill too high

On other hand you forgotten money back to BP, all in all I have around 100 mill there.
So you anyway end up with same total cost.

69k full year should be on track so far
59 usd average oil price, we ahead of that and they will have hedged more since last update.

I would not blame the guy for hedging losses 2018 that was needed safety
But for not doing well enough last autumn was worse, we could have gotten 10 usd higher avarage about 250 mill extra debt reduction safely specially when margins are tight a year like 2019.

Yes, lower capex is needed next 2 years. I would assume they go maybe also capex free H1.
And continue tight until oil recovered and good hedges in place again to come on top of things.
Amortisation is lower next year.

So finacial preasure is going down even with 60 oil going ahead.
if we at around 50 oil next year. Then I think we still talking about these SP levels in one year from now.

GKB, price is a lunch with Therapist I guess-)

Hi Therapist and L3,

I am also at 70k+ for June, don’t have excel sheet here for more exact number

But what we need to do together is make an base case for future.
2019 prod, oil price remaining month
2020/21 , prod, capex, oil price

Then we could use our collective estimates.

And after that we could use some average number and run the FCF numbers for this period and take an average of it too.

I only saw Squif and HMH doing it.

Then we would have and average view of how this could come out.

There a lot of knowledge in this board but we need try make assumptions for longer future.

Sorry all for bad joke with June numbers, how could I possibly have those.
And L3 is correct, I dont have euromillion numbers either for tonight.

L3, You take price for longest post today:-) I will try answer as you ask a lot
2021 is still on the table without saying the word based on my calculations 70k and 65 oil 2020/21
I dont have the excel file here but when I also adjusted May bit lower I also ended up with around 1665 debt end June.
I posted excel file about a week ago, dont know if you saw it. And it was only uploaded 24 hours

I said 70k and 2020/21 and I cant or wont even try to calculate it exact because there the oil price assumption also.
You make it sound that its completely unrealistic!
Anyway, I think given Kraken perform good 40k Oct-Dec this year and all other fields without maintenance we are running 75-80k those months and going into 2020 higher then start 2019.
Capex, 2 wells each in Magnus/Malaysia = 50-60 mill
Then there another 90-100 mill to be spend on other field, doubt they will spend that much. But to be on safe side I have 150 mill/year total capex.
I think thats about enough to offset depletion

What is you estimates for Prod 2020/21 and capex?
I think I asked you many times before for longer horizon assumption without feedback
And what oil price would you use as base case for 2020/21? Not pessimistic or optimistic

The 400k shares will be bought over several trades and months.
AB bought several times when oil was around 60 so he doesnt fear the future.

Good luck all and nice weekend