Member Info for Pelle

Hi L7,
I think it’s impossible try estimate declines based on these production numbers as you say yourself there other factors. We saw last year for example when they add well in summer and autumn they lost maybe 3 weeks production.
See the same link RI again and that production profile only included the 2 wells last year and the 2 this year.
And after that it seems declines are 1-1,5k per year.
In the presentation in July they identified approx 10 wells to drill and I assume they continue with 2 per year for another 4-5 years. That should offset declines as I see it.

Nice to hear you confident with Kraken

Good luck next week

Hello L7

Magnus should increase average next year. See p173.
Think they mention also they ahead of schedule so I expect good numbers after the 2 new wells added
Think Kraken can average more next year also.

https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Corporate_actionsPDFs/Rights_Issue/RIProspectus.pdf

Moffa,
I don’t see June as top production month
in maintenance season.
October to April should be strong if Kraken does good

Hello Therapist,
Its good news.
70k June, think I had 73-74 estimate.
How many k is offline due to maintenance on the small fields? Just roughly
I think Magnus will surprise us with 20-25k during winter half year.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/222613.jsp

Hello Ajes,

Lets hope market will start to put an value on Enq for the tax position also.
Maybe next year, once breakeven for FCF gets closer to 40 usd and debt is down a bit more.
At some point when Enq is safer bet values most come more vissible

Hello E,

I am hoping for trade deal can give an spark for oil and world economy, problem is no clue when it can happen.
Sometimes I look at marketscreener page and I writen down key numbers projections since 2017.
For example
Autumn 2017 oil 60 usd projection debt
2018 end debt 1650
2019 end debt 1135

Autumn 2018 oil 80 usd projection debt
2018 end debt 1745
2019 end debt 1278
2020 end debt 684

Current situation
2019 end debt 1568
2020 end debt 1258
2021 end debt 921

While we come short of projection during last years there now must be a really good chance beat current estimates.
And SP will hopefully follow
I hope AB surprise us with something good also that we didnt forsee

Hello Ajes

Lets worry about tax after Enq used up their 3 billion tax credits.
I saw in Magnus RI prospect they expected those to last until 2025 something, maybe it was at 65 usd oil assumption.

Morning E,
Yeah thanks, all good here waiting for my turn at shooting range.
You been travel?
Didn’t see you here for long.

I also look forward to report, topped up family accounts with more shares last week and maybe 1 month ago.
Will now wait some months and see where we are with oil and Trump.
If things not got worse I will continue buy.

Hi Joe,

Not any official that I seen.
I estimate 70k next year and then question is how long they can offset declines with capex maybe 150-250 mill.
Guess they will make some type of Magnus deal also hopefully

Good morning

I also checked a bit, first thing is Enq EV is around 1,9-2,0b now.
I see this NOR presentation slide 7, seems production is dropping to 30k 2020-21 and then climbing bit again.
Looks like they will average 35k next 5 years.
Enq will be almost double maybe and debt end next year hopefully closer to 1b same as this NOR.

https://www.noreco.com/uploads/documents/190731-Noreco-Company-Presentation.pdf

Yeah, what happen?
Just that Trump wake up or?

Lol... lazy one.
Maybe need click on the buy button for him too

Hi Weny,
Last update say , remaining 8 months 6,2 mill hedge at 66.
That’s approx half volume hedged until Dec.
Probably they filled up with more hedge now during summer at 60-65 range.

I have just made some rough estimates on this part.

Its funny that 6 months report in Sept is almost like full year.

Say thanks to Smilla at Swedish chat

Bumi is up 16% today

In a separate statement, Bumi Armada executive director and chief executive officer Gary Christenson said during the second quarter, there was a noticeable improvement in the performance of Armada Kraken FPSO, which helped the overall FPO revenue.

Itsa, why do you care as you don’t have any shares?

And FYI directors can’t buy near report

Have nice holiday Chilting

Hi Hitman,
I remember we talked about trade creditors after last report.
Not that I fully understand it but I taken your and other experts here word on it and reduced my FCF with 8 mill/month for it.

Looking forward to next week

Hi Hitman

Why?
I see FCF of 200 mill Oct 2019 to 1 April 2020 with oil at 60 usd.
Why not pay the 100 mill before end 2019?
You wanted them to outpace amortisation schedule